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Everything posted by Frobby

  1. Unless something goes horribly wrong, the O's will be exercising that 2015 option, since in effect it only cost $15.5 mm (net of the $2 mm buyout they pay for not exercising the option). However, the way the ESPN article reads, it seems Nick has the choice of turning down the option, which he obviously would do if his market value exceeded $17.5 mm. So it seems to me that the option is much more favorable to Nick than to the Orioles. When I first heard "mutual option" a few days ago I had assumed that meant either side could unilaterally exercise the option. I'm disappointed if that's not the case.
  2. Guthrie has more value than most 30-year olds because he's not yet arbitration eligible, and can't be a free agent for four more seasons. He's very cost-effective, which is why he'd be good trade bait for a team that is competitive but fairly strapped for cash.
  3. It's as easy as writing a big check. If we're willing to go out and spend what it takes to get Looper, Garland or Wolf, it's easy to do. And if the return for Guthrie was very high, that wouldn't be too bad an idea.
  4. Now you are making sense. As I said, I'm OK with trading Guthrie for good value so long as we bring in a solid pitcher to replace him. But you can't rely on the current in-house inventory to take his spot.
  5. Because last year we still had Guthrie to pitch once every 5 days, and DCab gave us 180 innings that included a pretty good first half. I think if you want to approximate the team's 2009 record if Guthrie is gone, you can just look at our 2nd-half 2008 record of 22-45 and project from there. Having a guy who can throw 6+ good innings on a regular basis affects a lot more games than just the ones he pitches.
  6. Apparently you have more tolerance for pain than I do. Guthrie at present is the ONLY starter we can count on in 2009. I expect Uehara to be pretty good, but he's an unknown quantity. Everyone else is unestablished. Maybe you can watch terrible starting pitching 162 games in a year and not wince. For me, I need a day off once every five days. I need to be able to say, "only three more days until Guthrie's turn and this abuse will end." If you enjoyed September 2007 and September 2008 when Guthrie was out of the rotation, you'll just love 2009 without Guthrie.
  7. As much as I understand the need to think long-term, I still feel we can't afford to lose Guthrie for 2009. Maybe if we went out and signed two solid free agent starters we could afford to trade Guthrie. But someone has to actually pitch the games in 2009.
  8. My guess is he'll end up signing for between $15-16 mm and the case won't go to a hearing. If it does go to a hearing, I like Philly's chances.
  9. You cannot compare the economic environment Beane has to navigate with the one his predecessor did. Baseball economics has changed drastically in the last 10-12 years and there is no escaping that fact. Beane has done quite well considering the payroll he has to work with. And success in a short series is always dicey no matter how good a team you build.
  10. Huff had the higher SLG in 2008. He wasn't nearly as good in the last few seasons before 2008. I don't really see Nick as a no. 4 hitter either. I'm sure he could do it, but I agree I'd prefer a guy with a bit more power in that spot.
  11. MacPhail is making steady progress, but I hope he's not done making changes this offseason. I'd like to see an established starting pitcher brought in, for sure. And I'm hoping we see progress on Brian Roberts one way or another.
  12. I don't like the move. It will surprise me if he clears waivers.
  13. Don't let the facts get in the way of what you think. Honestly, there is ZERO evidence that Brady was a different player after 1996 than he was before 1996. His stats for the 4 years before the 1996 season are nearly identical to those for the four years after. He struck out 11 more times from 1997-2001 than he did in 1992-1995. He was the exact same player before and after 1996.
  14. You have to look at the ages of these guys and how many years they have before becoming a free agent. Youk had better offensive numbers than Nick, but Nick is much younger and likely to keep getting better. Youk also benefits from playing at Fenway. Pedroia has 4 years to go before he can be a free agent so his $6.7 mm average isn't indicative of what Roberts would get as a free agent in his next contract.
  15. I would think that this place where he and all these other baseball players work out is cognizant of the types of workouts and exercises one should be doing to avoid becoming inflexible etc.
  16. Then how do you explain the fact that he had 112 RBI sitting mostly in the 3rd spot all year in 2007? Look, these things flucutuate from year to year. I can find you years where Melvin Mora hit better in the 2 spot than the 3 spot, then reversed that the following year. Drawing any big conclusions from a particular year's splits is just silly. 2007 batting 3rd: .297/.364/.479, 18 HR 91 RBI in 128 games 2007 batting 2nd: .296/.349/.480, 3 HR 16 RBI in 24 games
  17. I'm a little worried that Jones may lose a step in the field carrying that much weight. I think it may benefit him at the plate, though. He had good wristy power anyway but now he may really explode.
  18. VERY happy about that option, and it's good to see Nick getting respect from his teammates. Old#5Fan should read those quotes!
  19. I think you need to take those splits with a grain of salt. Nick batted 3rd during almost all of 2007 and knocked in 112 runs. He can hit 3rd, no question. However, last year's lineup was very potent with him batting 2nd and that's where I'd start him out this year.
  20. This comparison makes my point and explains why so many us are high on Nick. You are right Nick last year was pretty comparable to Brady Anderson -- in Brady's prime. But when Brady was 24, he put up a line of .212/.272/.286. Brady didn't hit his prime until age 28 at which point he had a string of seasons that weren't far off what Nick did last year (though Nick's .897 OPS last year was better than any year Brady ever had except for his fluky 50 HR season). If Nick continues getting better as Brady did until age 28 he'll be putting up incredible numbers by then.
  21. If anything, the O's were a little generous in this deal. I think even SG would admit that. Credit the O's for making sure this got done.
  22. We traded a possibly decent reliever for a possibly decent starter. Not a big deal either way but I think we need some starter candidates with good AAA experience more than we need a middle reliever.
  23. While nobody can be 100 percent sure Nick hasn't reached his ceiling, general aging trends for major league players and Nick's trend in particular strongly suggests he hasn't. As I said before there is no point in my arguing with you on this - the season will be played and Nick either will keep getting better or he won't.
  24. Yeah, I think a lot of our pitchers are suddenly going to look a whole lot better than they looked last year.
  25. http://camdendepot.com/analysis_average_performance_infield.html Among other things it says Izturis probably won't hit well enough to be an average SS overall, but is still a good value at $2.5 mm.
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