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Everything posted by Frobby

  1. Although Sabathia may not win more games or have a lower ERA than Mussina had in 2008, he will throw a lot more innings, keeping the bullpen better rested for other games. That's worth a lot. Tex is only a slight upgrade over Giambi offensively, but he's more likely to be healthy and the defensive upgrade is huge. So yeah, I think the Yankees are improved.
  2. Sickels changed the grades of five prospects last night so I'm updating the list. Changes were to the A's (two B+ promoted to A-), White Sox (two C+ promoted to B-) and Royals (B- demoted to C+)
  3. Frobby

    A new OPS

    Actually, I think your new system goes in the wrong direction. It is often said that the problem with OPS is that in actuality, OBP is far more important than SLG - maybe three times as important. Since BA is by far the largest component of OBP, reducing the importance of BA in the overall formula in effect favors power over getting on base.
  4. A-Rod is no spring chicken, either. He'll be 34 in June. He could decline a lot and still be a very good player, but we can at least hope that he'll decline to the point where he's more like a top 25 player rather than a top 5 player, at which point he'll be incredibly overpaid.
  5. Excellent list. I think that even if CC is not hurt, his heavy workload the last 2 years may lead to him losing some effectiveness. By that I mean you might see a .50-.75 increase in his ERA, not that he will fall off a cliff.
  6. We will know a lot more by the end of 2009, I agree. I will tell you something else about Snyder that gives me a lot of confidence in him - he is a very consistent hitter. Unlike Reimold, who is either red hot or ice cold at any given time, Snyder rarely goes more than 2 days without a hit. That was true in Hawaii, true in Frederick, true in Arizona. In fact, in Arizona there was ony one game in which he played where he failed to reach base, depsite the fact that he was only playing every other day.
  7. I predict he puts up .850 - .900 OPS at Bowie and gets promoted to Norfolk at mid-season. He might get a look-see in Baltimore in September. By the way, responding to a point SG made, I don't think .850-.900 OPS in the majors at 1B is all-star level. Tex has a .919 career OPS and he's only been an all-star twice. Last year there were 4 1B with an OPS over .900 (in fact, over .950) and 13 over .850. I'd call .850 - .900 at 1B solid to above average.
  8. Markakis at Frederick at age 21 -- .300/.379/.480 Snyder at Frederick at age 21 --- .315/.358/.490 Markakis in the AFL at age 21 ---- .326/.408/.453 Snyder in the AFL at age 21 ----- .349/.431/.667 Those look pretty similar to me. Like I said, Nick has better plate discipline, and he always will. But Snyder is coming around in that department, and he can flat out hit. Like Nick, he hits a ton of doubles, and has decent but not massive HR power. I see him as a guy who as a rookie probably puts up a .750-.775 OPS, in his 2nd year he puts up an .800-.825 OPS, and then he settles into the .850-.900 range for the meat of his career. He'll also end up being a year older than Nick when he gets his first full year of major league playing time. So no I don't quite put him in Nick's category as a hitter, but IMO he will hit well enough to hold down a corner IF spot or DH and be very solid in that spot offensively.
  9. The Giants are up and it's a strong system but not quite as deep a top 10. Here's the whole list to date: KCR -- 1 A-, 1 B+, 6 B, 2 B-, 9 C+, 1 C ----Top 10: 3.03 Top 20: 2.67 MIN -- 2 B+, 1 B, 5 B-, 12 C+ ------------ Top 10: 2.77 Top 20: 2.55 ATL -- 1 A-, 3 B+, 3 B, 6 B-, 7 C+ -------- Top 10: 3.07 Top 20: 2.75 PHI -- 3 B, 5 B-, 9 C+, 3 C --------------- Top 10: 2.70 Top 20: 2.47 TAM -- 1 A, 3 B+, 1 B, 4 B-, 11 C+ ------- Top 10: 3.00 Top 20: 2.67 ARI -- 1 B+, 1 B, 5 B-, 3 C+, 10 C -------- Top 10: 2.80 Top 20: 2.40 BAL -- 1 A, 3 B+, 1 B, 4 B-, 7 C+, 4 C ----Top 10: 3.00 Top 20: 2.60 WAS - 2 B+, 1 B, 3 B-, 11 C+, 2 C -------- Top 10: 2.70 Top 20: 2.48 CHC --1 B+, 2 B, 1 3 B-. 7 C+, 7 C --------Top 10: 2.66 Top 20: 2.38 BOS -- 1 A-, 1 B+, 3 B, 8 B-, 7 C+ --------Top 10: 2.93 Top 20: 2.68 CIN -- 1 B+, 3 B, 4 B-, 10 C+, 2 C ---------Top 10: 2.77 Top 20: 2.52 TOR -- 1 A-, 1 B+, 1 B, 3 B-, 7 C+, 7 C ----Top 10: 2.73 Top 20: 2.42 MIL -- 1 B+, 5 B, 2 B-, 9 C+, 3 C ----------Top 10: 2.83 Top 20: 2.53 OAK -- 2 B+, 6 B, 7 B-, 5 C+ --------------Top 10: 3.00 Top 20: 2.75 TEX -- 1 A, 2 A-, 1 B+, 5 B, 2 B-, 9 C+ ----Top 10: 3.23 Top 20: 2.80 COL -- 1 A-, 1 B+, 1 B, 2 B-, 7 C+, 8 C ----Top 10: 2.70 Top 20: 2.38 NYM -- 2 B+, 3 B, 12 C+, 3 C -------------Top 10: 2.73 Top 20: 2.48 CWS -- 2 B+,1 B, 9 C+ and 8 C ------------Top 10: 2.60 Top 20: 2.33 SFG -- 1 A, 1 A-,1 B+,1 B, 3 B-, 12 C+, 1 C Top 10: 2.90 Top 20: 2.60
  10. Two of the three I mentioned are AL pitchers. As to Looper, to me he's Kris Benson. If his 4.13 ERA in the NL turns into 4.60-4.85 in the AL that's fine so long as he's throwing about 6 innings per start. Remember, pitchers in the NL actually average slightly lower innings per start than their AL counterparts, because their often managers pinch hit for them in key 6th/7th inning situations even if they are still pitching well. In case I wasn't clear, to me Redding and Hendrickson are not good alternatives.
  11. Well, part of MacPhail's job is to fix any deficiencies in these areas, isn't it? Whatever other criticisms anyone has of his performance before he got to Baltimore, he built excellent minor league and scouting organizations in Minnesota and Chicago. We need to understand that, for those kind of things, Rome wasn't built in a day. Personally, I think there's already been a lot of improvement.
  12. It sounds like a little, but it is worth a lot. It means your team is in the game a lot of the time. It means your bullpen doesn't get overworked. It may even mean that you can afford to carry one more bench player and one less bullpen guy.
  13. Olney says we offered 7/$140 mm, not 7/$150 mm. Putting that to one side, there's a big difference between a 7-year deal and a 9-year deal, since it is relatively unlikely that Tex will still be performing at peak levels at ages 36 and 37. At the end of the day, Tex got 8/$180 mm, and the indications were that if he had gotten equal money from any other team he still would have chosen to play for the Yankees. I'm comfortable that we could not have signed Tex without offering him a deal that was significantly higher than what the Yankees put on the table. Everything else that happened is background noise to this reality.
  14. I am going to give you a criterion I consider important for any pitcher we sign: 6 IP per start. Looper (6.03) meets that criterion. Byrd (6.00) meets that criterion. Garland (6.15) meets that criterion. Redding (5.52) and Hendrickson (5.32) do not. Simply put, I want pressure taken off the bullpen, which has pitched way too many innings the last few years. I think our bullpen will be VERY good if we don't overwhelm it. That's my concern about Bass, Waters, Olson and Liz. Collectively they threw 5.19 innings per start. A team that has too many starts like that is going to suffer serious bullpen attrition. If anyone knows that, it's us. Our starters were 2nd to last in IP last year, 3rd to last the year before. And we saw what that did to our pen. So to me, spending some money on guys who will throw 6 IP per start in an investment not only in them, but the long-term future of the bullpen. I don't want half the bullpen on the DL.
  15. I agree with some of the other things you said in your post but not this part. The fact that the Orioles had a $90 mm payroll one year doesn't mean they can afford that every year, any more than the fact that they had a payroll under $60 mm a couple times means that's all they can affrod every year. Over the course of the last 10 years the O's have averaged $70-80 mm and that's the norm they are working off. Their attendance is down and that's a problem whether you acknowledge it or not. As to what they earn from MASN beyond the $25 mm they get in rights fees (same as the Nats), nobody really knows. Put it this way - you didn't see the Red Sox or Angels significantly increasing their offers, either. That's because it simply doesn't make sense to spend too high a percentage of your payroll limit on a single player. Whatever limit you believe we have, the limit of the Red Sox and Angels is higher.
  16. I seriously doubt it. The only way the players will change their stance is if they see that there are several teams who are in danger of actually folding, not just being bad teams. That would mean fewer jobs for MLB players, and that would get the union's attention. But baseball has made a killing the last decade or so, and it's going to take more than a 1-2 year economic slump to put any teams in serious financial trouble.
  17. As always, you make it sound as if it is so easy to do. News flash: other teams aren't just giving away their good young talent. The O's do not have that many trading chips. If you believe MacPhail, he's been busy: http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/baseball/bal-sp.orioles24dec24,0,7091933.story http://baltimore.orioles.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20081223&content_id=3727102&vkey=news_bal&fext=.jsp&c_id=bal Like you, I'm not enthused about some of the names I've been hearing on the pitching front. But let's see where things stand on Feb. 15 when spring training begins. Six weeks is plenty of time to make some significant moves.
  18. There's a lot of division of opinion about whether the team mishandled the Tex negotiations, and whether it would have made a difference. But you know what? At the end of the day, we all want the same thing. We want the team to get better. And the real concern here is not that we didn't get Tex, it's that we haven't done enough yet to actually get any better than last year, either for 2009 or longer term. Oh sure, we've nibbled at the margins by signing Izturis and clearing space for Wieters to step in. But we haven't addressed the horrible pitching situation for 2009, and that situation seems to be deteriorating. We don't seem to have any long-term plan in place to replace Roberts, Huff and Mora in a year. We don't have a long-term answer at SS even though Izturis may be fine for his 2 years. So that's all I care about. Put a better team on the field, one that seems to have a future, and I'll quickly forget all about Tex. I don't expect every problem solved at once, but I need to see steady progress. Now get to work.
  19. No, I'm saying a notch or two below Markakis, who I believe is about to settle in at the .900 - .950 level. Snyder will never have Nick's plate discipline, he'll be a .350 OBP guy. But his BA and SLG will be similar to Nick's.
  20. All very interesting, but the collective bargaining agreement locks in the current system through the 2011 season. And the last time the owners tried to institute a salary cap, we lost 50 games of the season and the entire postseason. Wake me up when the players' union says they are amenable to discussing a salary cap. That'll be a cold day in Hell.
  21. I guess I will be ridiculed for this but here I go anyway: By the end of 2009 everyone will understand that Brandon Snyder is a much better prospect than most of the names being kicked around on this list, and that he's major league ready. There, I said it. I'm not saying we shouldn't be trying to find an alternative high upside 1B. But I also have a lot of faith in Snyder. If you look at what he did in Hawaii last fall, Frederick this year and Arizona this fall, he's made tremendous strides. He won't be Tex, but he'll be a guy you can count on for an .850 - .900 OPS for a long time.
  22. I don't have a problem with the Orioles' decision. I wholeheartedly agree that from a PR standpoint they handled it poorly.
  23. It always was, so far as I'm concerned. But now it's really imperative.
  24. Oh really? http://www.forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/showpost.php?p=1524931&postcount=37
  25. http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/baseball/bal-apteixeira1223,0,6905601.story Personally, I think MacPhail truly believes that, and is not just spinning.
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