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Everything posted by Frobby

  1. I only count $423 mm - can I have the spare $77 mm?
  2. Bump.....Take a look at this poll from just before the FA period began. The vast majority thought we had very little chance to sign Tex. 58% said 25 percent or smaller chance. Only 13% said 50% or better.
  3. Oh, I'm afraid the deflector shield will be quite operational when your friends arrive! :vader: It's a trap.....the Yankees!.......aaaaaauuuugghhhhh!
  4. In a perverse way, I hope Tex does go to the Yankees. Maybe that will be the straw that breaks the camel's back in terms of the ridiculous system baseball has in place. I had thought the Yankees were being awfully quiet over the last week, TOO quiet in fact......
  5. If it's 8/$190, I won't have any regrets about not signing him.
  6. Unless he has strong reason to think that even his best offer wouldn't be close to enough to persuade Tex to turn down what he's been offered elsewhere. There's no way for us to judge this without knowing what has been said by both sides in their discussions.
  7. Here is what you did say: http://www.forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/showpost.php?p=1547457&postcount=1536 Now, you quickly got more pessimistic than that. But at one point that's what you said you'd been told. So the question is, if that was accurate, why didn't the O's follow through?
  8. The idea that 7 years, $140 mm is "lowball" is ridiculous. That's an excellent offer. It may not have been enough, but it's a reasonable bid to put on the table considering that there are exactly two position players in the history of baseball (A-Rod and Manny) who ever earned $20 mm/yr. I just don't like the way the O's have played their hand since then. If it's been apparent for a week that they weren't going to up their bid enough to stay competitive, they should have said so publicly so the fan base wouldn't have been led on. I think they've done the fans a grave disservice.
  9. It really seems like MacPhail is either being very coy about what has been going on over the last 2 weeks, or he's just naive in thinking he can just sit around and wait for the phone to ring. He certainly hasn't conveyed publicly any message to suggest that the team really cares very much about trying to land Tex. So I can only conclude that he's ambivalent about it, at least at the requisite price.
  10. FWIW, I think your comment was a legitimate point of view and was respectfully stated. It really seems the insider info this time around was way off base.
  11. bigbird said days ago that he had gotten a text saying Tex will not be an Oriole. What more is there for him to say?
  12. From last week: Even bigbird heard we'd go that high.
  13. As I said before, my head says one thing, my heart says something else. It will be far more disappointing to lose Tex to the Red Sox than it would have been to get Tex but pay too much money. I just would be a lot happier if Tex did not go to an AL East rival. Honestly, I wish the Orioles had never bid at all, if this was the way they were going to play it. I'll say more once we see what actually happens, I don't want to get too worked up yet.
  14. Ugh - I'm bracing myself for the worst possible news.
  15. It doesn't really matter who is first, until the finish line. I'm not optimistic because I just don't think the Orioles are willing to do what it takes, but I'm not concerned about what "place" they are in until the music stops.
  16. Orioles all the way. I think about them 365 days a year. I like all the other sports, but during baseball season, to me it's like they don't even exist. By the way, the Hangout (and the internet in general) has added immensely to my enjoyment. In what other sport do you start investing yourself emotionally in players years before they are even on the team's roster? It is so satisfying when a guy you have followed from the day he was drafted reaches the majors and has success. And I'm hoping to have a lot of that kind of satisfaction in the next few years.
  17. This is correct. Let's not forget that Cal was also the league MVP the last time the Orioles won a World Series. He therefore was always associated with the team's winning tradition and lost glory. And he had his incredible streak which fit so well with Baltimore's self-image. Tex will help attendance but he's got miles to go before he could ever be a draw like Cal.
  18. We can only control what we do, not what the other teams do. One thing that is nice about the Orioles' system is that not only is there a fair amount of talent, but a lot of it is 2 years away or less -- Wieters, Tillman, Matusz, Arrieta, Reimold, Snyder, Hernandez, Bergesen, Berken, Patton, Spoone, Erbe to name a few. So even some of the organizations that are higher-rated than we are don't have that kinds of an influx of talent coming that soon.
  19. Seems to me the Orioles have 3 goals here: 1. Get Tex. 2. Don't pay Tex so much money that the deal doesn't make sense in the long run. 3. Pay Tex as little as possible. Bluffing serves objective no. 3, but it risks objective no. 1. If we lose Tex because we decide he's simply not worth the money some other team is offering, that's acceptable. If we lose him because we were playing games to try to knock the price down, when in fact we were willing to pay that price, that's unacceptable. By the way, if the Nats are offering 8/$184 mm, I think that's borderline insane.
  20. Top 10: 2.60 Top 20: 2.33 That's worse than "not a very good system." That's putrid.
  21. Remember, Jeter's contract was 10 year, $190 mm -- and that was signed in 2001. Factor in that Jeter wasn't a free agent at the time, and inflation, and Jeter's contract is much bigger in relative terms than the contract under discussion for Teixeira. Jeter is simultaneouly a deserving Hall of Fame candidate, and the most overrated player of his generation. He's had some "signature moments" as you put it, but mainly because the talented team around him has put him in a position to have those moments. Basically, Teixeira is the current version of Rafael Palmeiro (forgetting the steroids part). That's worth a lot of money.
  22. Three things are in play here: 1. The average fan cares more about what happens with the Yankees and Sox than what happens with the Orioles. If the Sox or Yanks get Tex that has significant effect on the balance of power at the top of the AL East. If the O's get Tex maybe they have a shot at .500 this year. And even though getting Tex might be part of a long-term plan for the O's, ESPN isn't spending a lot of time worrying about the long term. Their viewers want to know what's going to happen in 2009, not what might happen in 2011. 2. From his years in Baltimore, Olney is very skeptical of Peter Angelos' ability to do anything right. Can you blame him? Olney has spoken well of the Orioles' fans, but he has the opinion that the guy at the top of the food chain is a clown. 3. Olney doesn't think it makes sense for the O's to mortgage their future to go after Tex. That's a legitimate opinion to hold and doesn't require an anti-Oriole bias. Many posters on this board believe that.
  23. Well, if a pitcher is averaging 6.2 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9 with a 4.40 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP in the minors and has had no major league success by age 27, how can you expect him to succeed in the majors? I don't know, but apparently the Orioles thought Jeremy Guthrie was better than his minor league numbers showed. Guess what, they were right.
  24. I find it very strange that there is such a strong discrepancy between the press reports and what ALL THREE of our insiders were saying a week ago. Bigbird, Belkast and Sonny76 all reported that the O's were willing to go as far as 10/$200 mm, and maybe a little higher than that on the money. I realize bigbird's source has been the most pessimistic, but nevertheless we heard 10/$200 mm from him. So how is it that Olney now says we offered 7/$140 mm and haven't budged and won't budge? Either all three insiders got wrong information, Olney has wrong information, or the O's are playing a very strange game of chicken.
  25. I'm not sure if you are referring to BA's February rankings, or the rankings Sickels is doing now. If it's Sickels, I think it's premature until he's done all the teams and finished adjusting his individual rankings (he has changed several already). In any event it would depend whether you weight the top 10 the way I did it, or whether you rank the top 20 or even more. Here is what BA said last February: 1. Rays 2. Red Sox 3. Reds 4. Rangers 5. Yankees 6. Dodgers 7. Rockies 8. Braves 9. Nationals 10. Angels 11. Mariners 12. Padres 13. Cardinals 14. Marlins 15. Diamondbacks 16. Orioles 17. Mets 18. Twins 19. Indians 20. Cubs 21. Brewers 22. Phillies 23. Giants 24. Royals 25. Blue Jays 26. Pirates 27. A’s 28. White Sox 29. Tigers 30. Astros Right now the teams that appear to be ahead of us (per Sickels) include at least Texas, Atlanta, Tampa, Oakland and KC. That's interesting since Oakland and KC were well behind us in February. It shows how much can change in less than a year based on injuries, trades and one draft.
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