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Everything posted by Frobby

  1. I'm voting for Erbe here (again). If that's wrong, well I'm ready to throw up my hands and say, "we'll see who's right next year."
  2. I should preface this by saying (to you and to Chorye's mom) that I'm not a doctor, but I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night. Well, not last night, but once. Well, actually it was just a regular Holiday Inn..... That said, I rank Albers' chances at 67%, because (1) he's already made the team before, and (2) he didn't require surgery and all reports are that his rehab has gone well. Ponson and Loewen both had labrum problems that didn't require surgery, and went on to pitch in the big leagues, so the odds are in favor of Albers pitching. How well? We will see. I rank Patton's chances of making the team in spring training at at 10% or less. He had surgery, and he hasn't pitched in a year, and even if he'd been healthy last year the odds are that he would have started the year in the minors. I rank the odds that he will eventually reach the majors again at 50%. After all, he did have surgery, and even though he reported that he was feeling 100%, you just never know. As to Chorye, I should add that I have no idea how serious his labrum issues are, how extensive any surgery was/will be, and what his doctors ahve told him about his prognosis. I was purely guessing.
  3. Man that is exciting. If Snyder can put together a Nick-like AFL season, that really puts him on the fast track. We could see him in Baltimore next September if everything falls into place.
  4. At this point it's pretty clear to me that he's consciously working on this. At his Sally League walk rate he'd have only 1-2 walks right now. If he had 5, I could write it off as a fluke. At 11, he's got to be doing something differently. By the way, here's an interesting tidbit: Henson has 10 BB in 24 PA's vs. RHP, 1 in 17 PA's vs. LHP. Can you enlighten us on what an IDP usually contains? Do all players get these? How long are they and who writes them?
  5. Maybe I'm a pessimist but here are my odds on Spoone: Comes back as good as new: 25% Comes back well enough to reach the majors eventually, but not where he was: 25% Injury impedes him to the point where he never throws a major league pitch: 50%
  6. I'm not the one saying he's a bad defender at 1B, but it is worth noting that he made 12 errors there this year, which is a lot. The median among qualified 1B in MLB was 7, and that's in a lot more games than Snyder played. Obviously errors don't tell the whole story, but at 1B they are probably more telling than at some other positions. As an aside, Ryan Howard made 19 errors and Prince Fielder had 17.
  7. Another two walks for Henson on 10/8 -- that's 11 in 41 plate appearances.
  8. Why is it unfair? The excuse we heard for years when the A's or Twins would make the playoffs on a small budget was, "yeah, but they don't play in the AL East." Well, the Rays do, and they appear to be very well positioned to compete in the AL East for at least the next five years. I think the Yankees are going to have big problems if the poor years by Hughes, Kennedy, Cano and Cabrera turn out to be a trend and not a fluke. Sure they have a lot of money, but they also have contractual commitments to a lot of aging players, and a lot of holes to fill. It won't be that easy for them to spend their way out of this.
  9. Thanks for the report. The part about Reimold's fielding is troubling, as it supports what we've been hearing from Tony.
  10. None of the other healthy pitchers deserve to be listed ahead of Erbe IMO, so I voted for Spoone, who after all, was ranked ahead of Erbe last year. I like Hoes but this is too high for a guy who put up OK numbers in the very lowest level of the organization.
  11. This whole argument (both sides) strikes me as silly. Maybe Hernandez will improve in the areas where he needs to improve, and maybe he won't. Obviously you can't just assume that he will improve. Just as obviously, you can't assume that he won't improve. So it's all a matter of what is likely, and the two of you disagree on that likelihood. Fine. We'll see how next year unfolds, and then we'll know. The one place where I disagree with you is your assumption that because Hernandez is 23 he's unlikely to improve further. That's not necessarily the case. 23 isn't that old. There are plenty of guys who were still in the minors at age 24 who went on to become good big league starting pitchers. That said, I'd agree that the probabilities lie with Hernandez ending up as a reliever. I just don't want to write off his chances as a starter yet.
  12. What you're saying doesn't make a lot of sense. This was Reimold's 2nd year at Bowie, not his third. And it's not like he had a bad line at Bowie in 2007 -- .306/.365/.565. If Snyder put up a line like that next year I'd be thrilled. The reason Reimold repeated Bowie was (1) because he only stayed healthy for 186 AB in 2007, and (2) to work on getting his strikeouts down. It's not like he was held back for poor performance.
  13. Wieters with the triple! His AFL line is now .333/.500/1.000. All's right with the world! Reimold flew out, so an HBP, a walk and two fly outs on the day for him.
  14. Reimold flies out, Wieters walks. Zzzzzzzzzzzz.........
  15. That Wieters is so overrated! :cussing:
  16. Just to be clear, I have no scouting experience at all. I agree that command issues can affect a reliever quite lot. Really the big difference is (1) pitch counts, and (2) it's easier to get by on two pitches you can command, rather than 3-4, when you are only going to see batters one time in a game.
  17. Is his change-up bad, or is he just afraid to use it? I seem to recall that in the last game of the 2007 season, he started using his change-up a lot and struck out 15 batters. There was talk that he had finally been convinced to use it after resisting all season. But then this year it seems like he again didn't go to it that much. I definitely feel that developing and using his change is a high priority for him in 2009.
  18. Frobby

    Who wins the ALCS?

    I like the back of Boston's rotation better. Red Sox in 6, though I'll be rooting for the Rays.
  19. I agree with you, but something tells me it isn't coming out that way.
  20. Eh, I don't know. You could have justified promoting Reimold sometime in the second half, but you also could have justified promoting Snyder. And I do think that starting Reimold at Bowie this year made sense in light of his very high K rate in AA last year and in the AFL last fall. At this point, arguing about this stuff is pointless. Reimold goes back to the AFL now and hopefully he puts up a good performance. Either way, he'll get a spring training invite next year and should get a shot at a roster spot. If he doesn't earn it, he'll be at Norfolk and Snyder will be at Bowie.
  21. On Snyder, I think you have to consider that .379 average he put up in the HWL in addition to the .315 in the Carolina League. On Reimold, I agree that his ability to cut down on K's this year was a big development for him. In both cases, they answered a lot of questions in 2008. In my mind they are neck and neck. I'd give Snyder the slight edge because we're still figuring out where his ceiling is. But I'm pleased with both of them. Hopefully both continue to pad their resumes in the AFL.
  22. http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/yankees/2008/10/06/2008-10-06_after_winning_20_for_first_time_mike_mus.html
  23. I've done both - I voted for Erbe for no. 5 and no. 6, but this time I voted for Reimold because of what Tony had said and because I think it's close. I refuse to vote for another pitcher ahead of Erbe, though, so he'll get my vote at no. 8.
  24. Apparently, some people can't take a hint....
  25. I agree with all these points. Snyder can just flat-out hit the ball. I don't think he's ever going to show the plate discipline of a Wieters, Markakis or Reimold. But, he's going to hit for average and with solid if unspectacular power. Maybe a little more power than people around here seem to think. It's important to keep in mind that a base hit is a bit more valuable than a walk. Therefore, as between a guy who hits .270/.360 (BA/OBP) and a guy who hits .310/.350, the guy who hits .310 is probably a bit more valuable (assuming SLG is equal).
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