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Everything posted by Frobby

  1. His first half was mildly disappointing, mainly due to his failure to hit in RISP situations. He is in the process of quickly wiping that out. He is presently on pace for 98 RBI after picking up 13 in 14 games. If he ends up batting over .300 (he is at .295 now) and with more than 100 RBI, even those who think WARP3 is something out of Star Trek will not consider Nick's season disappointing. He has already passed last year's season total in doubles. He probably will surpass his 2006 RBI total, and his extra base hit total, before July is over. Not bad with 2 months to go.
  2. Nick was a doubles machine throughout his minor league days. And he has been hitting them all this season, not just in July: April - 6 May - 10 June - 5 July - 6 (and counting) If you look at 2006 you will see he had 7 doubles in April - June combined and then 18 in July - Sept. He is going to consistently hit 40+ doubles and it is just a matter of how many of those will turn into HR's eventually. BTW, as hot as he has been in July, he has only 1 HR since June 8. He's overdue for a HR binge and I would be surprised if one doesn't come eventually. Remember he only had 4 HR through July last year and then hit 10 in one month. I don't know that he'll have a 10 HR month this year, but he is capable of putting up numbers in a hurry.
  3. You are not the only person who shares that opinion, but the statistics don't support it. Tejada was 2nd in the AL in fielding percentage and 3rd in zone rating at the time of his injury. I'd be the first person to say that defensive statistics are often misleading, but its pretty hard to look at any defensive stats (including other, more exotic ones) and construct an argument that Tejada is a really poor defensive SS. At the very worst he is slightly below average at SS according to evey stat I've seen, and at best he's one of the better defensive shortstops.
  4. While I think Tejada draws undue criticism, anyone who watched him play in 2004 and the first half of 2005 knows that he hasn't brought the same level of enthusiasm and energy to the field since then. At the end of the day, I think that is what rankles people the most - they know he is capable of more, even if he is still playing at a high level.
  5. Depends on the score. If it appears inconsequential to the outcome of the game, yes I'd cheer his feat. I'm not a huge A-Rod fan but I appreciate how great he is. But if the HR "matters" and hurts the Orioles, I wouldn't cheer it no matter what.
  6. I disagree that Tejada is bad at turning DP's, though I would be the first to admit that I can think of 3 and maybe 4 times that he messed up a possible DP this year. In the 3 previous years he was 1st, 2nd and 2nd in DP's for AL shortstops. Even accounting for the fact that he played all 162, 160 and 150 games at SS those 3 years, his DP rates have been very good.
  7. Well, I'm happy to keep Bradford and Walker if that's the case and we can't get significant prospects in return. They have performed well and I believe they will continue to do so in 2008-09. I'd rather trade Ray if he will bring a lot more in return.
  8. Timlin was a horrible closer. Give me Chris Ray over him any day.
  9. Fahey is in his correct role now -- a AAA player who gets called up when someone better is injured. That's his only role on a decent team.
  10. Uh, Denny Bautista for Jason Grimsley?
  11. Walker and Bradford are more than just "veteran relievers." Since 2002 Walker has had an ERA+ of 113, 130, 141, 116, 161 and 154 (this year). Bradford has had an ERA+ of 150, 140, 106, 114, 149 and 134. If I am in a pennant race right now, I'm not worried that they might cost a little more than some veteran reliever with a lesser track record. Give me the guy who has pitched well this year and every other year for the previous 5 years, and who pitched under pennant race pressure last year.
  12. Walker and Bradford are known commodities with long track records, who are performing very close to their typical levels. Both pitched well in last year's pennant race. They are pretty attractive. When it's July and you are in a pennant race, you want guys who will pitch at that level, not guys who can pitch at that level.
  13. If Trembley feels Tejada should move more to the middle, I'm sure he will not hesitate to speak up. Question is, would that be better? My theory is that most shortstops play more towards the middle than Tejada because they know that even if they could get to more balls in the hole by moving to that side, they couldn't throw out many runners from there. The equation is different for Tejada because of his arm. He can make throws most shortstops can't make.
  14. Back to the topic. MOST shortstops get more balls going to their left than Tejada, and that probably includes Fahey. The thing is, Tejada gets to far more balls going into the hole, AND MAKES MORE THROWS FROM THE HOLE, than most other shortstops. Including Fahey. To me, Tejada's critics who ignore the stats that show Tejada's range to be either above average or very close to average just place too much emphasis on the balls he doesn't get to going to his left, and disregard the plays he makes going to his right.
  15. I think we have to be careful with our perception that Bako is not a good defensive catcher. Yes, he has 6 passed balls and it seems to me that he drops a lot of pitches. However, teams do not run on him very much for whatever reason (16 SB's in 31 starts the last time I looked). And BP's Rate/Rate2 has him right at 100. I think it is safe to say that House could be a lot worse than Bako defensively, despite Bako's shortcomings. The real issue here is why the Orioles did not think House's bat could help us. I hope he catches on with another team and gets a lot of AB so we can see what we missed.
  16. And you seem pretty sure they are wrong -- but how do you know? Anyway I look forward to hearing more about this to see if it's anything more than what you say. Considering that the trade deadline is a month away and the O's could try to dump some of their 1B/DH types, the timing seems odd to me.
  17. 90% sure this move is stupid, but I'd love for Tony to go to Stockstill or whoever and get a full explanantion, otherwise we'll never know.
  18. Per BowieMike on the minor league board, House asked for and received his release today. I know this is a minor league matter, but House has gotten so much attention on this board I thought it should be posted here too. Let the ranting begin....
  19. Johan Santana C.C. Sabathia Roy Halladay John Lackey Roy Oswalt Jake Peavy Brandon Webb Ben Sheets Justin Verlander Chris Young Those are all pitchers who are 30 and under. There are others 30 and under who might be better, though perhaps not "clearly" better, like Haren, Buehrle, Beckett, Bonderman and Wang.
  20. I would say that is fair. I'd say there are about 15 guys clearly ahead of him, and then a pack of 20 guys where you could debate their exact standing. Of course it depends a little on what time frame you are talking about.
  21. You need to explain that. You said Bedard was 26th in VORP. Your list of pitchers with higher PECOTA's had 25 names on it. Are you saying there are 30+ pitchers in MLB better than Bedard?
  22. Here is a list of the pitchers who had a better ERA than Bedard last year and so far this year: Chris Young Johann Santana Derek Lowe John Lackey John Smoltz Justin Verlander Brandon Webb Kelvim Escobar Roy Oswalt C.C. Sabathia Chien-Ming Wang
  23. To me, all xFIP does is give some statistical evidence that Bedard has been unlucky. It doesn't "prove" anything. But why have we gotten so far afield? Bedard is a very good pitcher. You don't dispute that. The issue is, is it better to keep him as a core building block of this team or trade him as part of a rebuilding plan. That question doesn't change much regardless of whether you think he's the 10th best pitcher in MLB or the 25th best. As for me, I'm keeping him unless some team just blows us away with an offer. A rebuilding plan has to start with some kind of core, and a couple of good starting pitchers who are under 30 and not yet eligible for free agency is a pretty good starting point.
  24. I think we are getting caught up in terminology here. No matter how you slice it, Bedard is a very good pitcher. On a lot of teams, he would be the no. 1 starter, on some teams he'd be the no. 2. I'll accept your statement that he ranks 26th in MLB in VORP. That makes him a no. 1, though close to being a no. 2. Does that give him a lot of trade value? Heck, yes!
  25. Loewen and Penn are non-factors for 2007. We can make room for Olson (and have) without moving Cabrera. As to 2008, I'd rather have competition for the rotation than just hand spots to unproven guys. That said, I'd move Cabrera if we can get something else we need more.
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