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Everything posted by Frobby

  1. 25% chance -- which is a little better than I thought when the whole sweepstakes started, but still not great.
  2. I'd be amazed if any of the three did not debut by mid-2010 at the latest. And by the way, there's also Bergesen, Berken and Hernandez to consider. Could be an unexpected pleasant surprise in there, and I'd expect all three to debut sometime in 2009-10 as well. Or, based on your theory of how long it takes a pitcher to hit his groove, maybe Olson or Liz finally catches on. Or maybe Erbe dominates AA this year and debuts sometime in 2010. Maybe Spoone or Patton regains their status. Maybe Albers gets a starting spot and thrives. There are a lot of possible permutations leading to the O's having three very good home grown young pitchers by 2011. Or, all of them could fizzle and never be any good.
  3. This is what I've repeatedly said. With or without Tex, our franchise will not compete until we have three home grown pitchers (including guys we traded for like Tillman) who are above average or better. The cost of really good free agent pitchers is just too high.
  4. Mulder was in his first full year, having pitched about 2/3 of the prior season in the majors. Same with Zito. Hudson was in his 2nd full season, having gone 11-2 in his first partial season and 20-6 in his first full year. Prior was in his first full year, having had 19 starts the year before. Zambrano was in his first full year as a starter, having had a cup of coffee (7.2 IP) in 2001 and having split time between relief and starting in 2002. Wood was in his 5th year, but he had been good ever since he was a rookie (13-6, 3.40 ERA). Shields was in his 2nd full year this year, having pitched a partial season in 2006. Sonnanstine was in his first full season. Kazmir was in his 4th full year but he's been pretty good since his first full season (10-9, 3.77 ERA as a 21-year old). Obviously I'm not saying that Matusz, Tillman and Arrieta are sure to be above average pitchers in 2011. But I am saying that it's by no means outside the realm of possibility. It happens more often than you might think.
  5. Like I said, we don't know the true story of the Orioles' economics. They spent $93 mm on payroll in 2007, $67 mm in 2008. Did they spend an additional $26 mm on the farm system, international scouting, etc.? Who knows, but I doubt it. According to Forbes, in 2007 the Orioles had revenue of $166 mm and player expenses of $103 mm (inclusive of benefits). Operating profit was $7.7 mm. From that, I deduce that the team spent ~$55 mm on non-payroll expenses. The year before, the O's had $158 mm in revenue, $86 mm in player expenses, and operating income of $17 mm. That suggests ~$55 mm in non-payroll expenses. That seems to suggest that the drop in payroll made no difference in the amount spent elsewhere. But in any event we don't have the true picture on either the revenue or the expense side, I suspect. I don't think we're necesarily 5 years away from the "prime" of Wieters et al. Johnny Bench was league MVP at ages 22 and 24. Joe Mauer put up MVP-caliber years at ages 23 and 25. Mike Piazza was cranking from age 24 onwards. Zito, Mulder and Hudson were 23, 23 and 25 when they won 56 games in 2001. Prior, Zambrano and Woods were 22, 22 and 26 when they won 45 games for the Cubs in 2003. Tampa's rotation last year had 3 24-year olds, a 25-year old and a 26-year old. I think it is pretty realistic that our rotation can be good by 2011, if it is ever going to be good. How I feel about an opt-out depends on the degree to which the contract is frontloaded/backloaded. If it's fairly backloaded, I don't have a problem with it, even after 4 years.
  6. Count BP's Will Carroll as someone who is skeptcal that Bedard will return to form: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/chat/chat.php?chatId=556
  7. There is no reason at all you have to be all in or all out. Tex is young enough that he will still be a great player when Wieters, Matusz, Arrieta and Tillman hit their prime. There are only three reasons I can see not to go after Tex: 1. If the salary you are going to pay him will preclude you from spending ample money on the farm system, international scouting/development, etc. 2. If the salary you are going to pay him will preclude you from obtaining or retaining other talented players in the future. 3. If you think it would be preferable to be absolutely awful for another 1-2 years to keep getting top-5 draft picks. As to the first two, none of us knows the answer. The Orioles' economics are a black box. All I can say is I trust MacPhail to not allow either of these things to happen. He's too smart for that. As to the third, I have no desire to be a 68-70 win team (or worse) EVER. It seems like every year it gets to be mid-August and when the team swoons some posters are actively rooting for us to lose to improve our draft status. I'd gladly take a .500+ season and take my chances with a no. 15 draft pick rather than watch a terrible team. One of the posters (Mackus?) proved pretty conclusively that a top-5 draft pick has been a bust about 2/3 of the time and that's just not good enough odds for me to want to endure more losing. I'd rather have a decent team and build from there.
  8. My personal opinion - when a new article comes out that actually has some interesting and new information in it, I'd rather see a new thread that highlights it than try to find a post referencing it in a thread that is 50-pages long and is mostly comprised of posters saying how optimistic or pessimistic they are at any given moment.
  9. I feel schizo on this one. $24 mm/yr is too much to pay, but the idea that the Red Sox get Tex is too depressing to contemplate. I know I'll feel disappointed if we don't get Tex, no matter how insane his contract is, and I'll be happy if we do get him, even if the deal is nuts.
  10. First, let me caveat this by saying that none of us knows the true story of the Orioles' economic situation, how much they get from MASN, etc. So anything I say is guessing. That said, I have no problem with 8/$160 mm. I'd even live with 10/$200 mm because I think Tex will still be decent at ages 37-38. But when I start hearing numbers like 8/$192 mm thrown around, that's too rich for my blood. For the Orioles, there's definitely more going on here than just the acquisition of a very good 1B. Just look at the interest being generated on this board and others, compared to any other transaction the team has ever contemplated. If we can't sign Tex, we can pretty much forget about ever signing a big-name free agent who is coveted by a contending team, at least until the Orioles have somehow turned into a contending team themselves. So really we are looking at two related questions: 1. Can we afford to sign Tex? 2. Can we afford NOT to sign Tex? It's going to be tough to pay him, but if he goes somewhere else we'd better dig in for another 2-3 years of losing and watching attendance decline.
  11. That is good to hear, because your earlier posts today saying we should wait for the next media report seemed to suggest that you were endorsing the subequent report from Olney saying we were out of it. Thank you for clarifying. My impression is that Boras has done a masterful job of milking all the teams for their best possible offer and in the end it will be up to Tex to decide which he likes best, all things considered. I think we win if we're very close on the money, but if our offer is markedly lower, it's sayonara.
  12. I don't think you really mean a firesale. A firesale is commonly used to denote a sale that has to be done very quickly even if it's at a very steep discount. Even if we lost Tex, we're not in that mode. We're still being patient and looking to get the best deal possible for our veterans, whether that's now, in July, or by taking the draft picks.
  13. Awesome summary. I just hope this doesn't drag out all the way to Xmas. The discrepancies in the reports are mind-boggling.
  14. P-f-f-f-f-f-f-f-f-f-f-f-f-f-t The sound of 1,000 balloons deflating. Thanks for the update. At this point it's tough to know what to think.
  15. Frobby

    Tex signed?

    I don't think posters should read too much into what Belkast is saying. After all, bigbird reported yesterday that the two sides were still haggling over opt out provisions, up front money and a no trade clause, and that the Red Sox were still in the picture. If Belkast says he "wasn't suggesting that everything is done," I don't see that as much of a change.
  16. I'm with you. There have been a lot of good signs in the last 24 hours, but that doesn't mean a lot until serious smoke signals come from the Warehouse chimney.
  17. One stinking 35-page thread on Tex is all they can muster? They don't deserve him!
  18. Well, he says he is friends with a top-10 prospect and also with someone in the Warehouse. I know which top-10 prospect he's talking about and I believe him on that front, so I give him at least some credence.
  19. If we sign Tex, we can mock Gammons, Olney and the rest 'till the cows come home. Until then, just say your prayers.
  20. Go back to the combination of things you mentioned in your post -- he wants up-front money AND an opt-out clause. Depending how much the up-front money is, this can result in a front-loaded contract where Tex gets more per-year if he opts out than if he stays in. That would be a problem.
  21. Did anyone post Ravech's remarks? If not: http://sports.espn.go.com/broadband/video/videopage?videoId=3772842&categoryId=2521705
  22. I don't see how this squares with the decision to leave him in Frederick all year last year. I think he'll see the majors in September, but not before.
  23. This is what it all boils down to. We could become a contending team in 2-3 years if our pitching develops the way we hope. But that is no sure thing, and if the pitching doesn't develop the way we'd like, we'll continue to be a bad team.
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