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Everything posted by Frobby

  1. I just want you to know that I agree 100% about Tillman's curve ball. I'm still not quite ready to skip him past Erik Bedard's curve, though. I definitely see that Tillman has the potential to be better than Bedard overall because his changeup is also pretty nasty. He's got 3 very good pitches, and like I said, it's just a matter of whether he can harness them regularly. I wouldn't want to face him when all three pitches are working -- definite no-hit stuff there. Like I said, I didn't see Matusz's game, so I can't comment on what looked good and what didn't. We all have our biases, and I love the crafty lefties who have several pitches and keep you guessing all the time.
  2. I think it's just crazy to come out with definitive opinions based on 2 starts by Tillman and one by Matusz. Let's watch Tillman for the rest of the year and Matusz for however long he's up here before getting too definitive. For me, I've only seen Tillman's first start, and I didn't see Matusz's debut. I saw enough from Tillman to tell that when his stuff is working, it is very difficult to hit. So the issue for him will be, how often will his stuff be working? I haven't seen Matusz yet, but my impression is he has more of a cushion to pitch a decent game even when 1-2 of his pitches aren't working, because of his repetoire and command. My guess is he will pitch to a sub-4.00 ERA year in and year out, and will be below 3.50 numerous times. If that's not an "ace," I'll still gladly take it.
  3. I agree that he doesn't walk much when he's hot, and that he walks more when he's in a cool period. What I'm saying is, typically his cool periods don't last long, and they aren't icy cold. Other than in April 2008, I'd bet you you'd be hard pressed to find a 2 week period in the HWL, the Carolina League or the Eastern League where he had an OPS under .800. He certainly had no months under .800 OPS in that time frame, other than April 2008. So that's why I was surprised that he had a pretty prolonged cold period at Norfolk. Hopefully, he won't see another one.
  4. Exactly. Depending on how you count them, Matusz has 7 different pitches (fastball, cut fastball, sharp curve, slow curve, slider and 2 different changeups). If any three of them aren't working on a given night, he still has 4 pitches to work with. And if they're all working, well -- GULP!
  5. 2 for 4 tonight, raising his average to .274.
  6. Will he come back to the high minors before the season ends, or are they just going to have him rehab at the low levels and then bring him back at a higher level next year?
  7. I'm still a Bedard fan, but his health record is awful. Staying in shape isn't the issue, but staying on the field is a big issue for him. Even if he can get through a season healthy, his propensity for high pitch counts will make it hard for him to rack up the high win totals that are necessary to win a Cy Young. I'd put his odds of ever topping his 2006 win total (15 games) at 30%.
  8. Bedard had a very high ceiling, but whether due to heart, injuries or whatever else you want to attribute it, he only has pitched at peak levels for brief periods. I really don't care much about an abstract discussion over whether Matusz, if he reached his ceiling, would be better than Bedard if he reached his ceiling. I'm much more concerned with what's going to happen in the real world. And I would say Matusz has a pretty good chance of having some years that are as good as Bedard's 2007 peak, and an extremely good chance of having a longer and more productive career. Matusz's hopeful Oriole comps are Mussina and McNally, not Bedard.
  9. According to Pitch f/x he maxed out at 93.8. http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfx/index.php?month=8&day=4&year=2009&game=gid_2009_08_04_balmlb_detmlb_1%2F&pitchSel=451085.xml&prevGame=gid_2009_08_04_balmlb_detmlb_1%2F&prevDate=84 I stand by my statement that Mussina had more velocity when he was in his prime. But it isn't particularly important in terms of assessing whether Matusz could be as good a pitcher.
  10. I can't imagine the O's having Andino at 3B except in case of emergency. No team would plan to go into a season with a sub-.600 OPS guy at 3B, even if it was only for a couple of months.
  11. We will see about that. Matusz is a very different pitcher than Bedard. No doubt Bedard has better raw stuff, but I'm a big fan of pitchers with good command and a large repetoire of pitches. There is more than one way to become an elite pitcher.
  12. I would be very surprised if he is on our roster on Opening Day. But, a May/June promotion is a distinct possibility if he gets off to a good start in AAA next year.
  13. I didn't see last night's game, so I am not going to argue with Old#5Fan's opinion of what he saw. There's a division of opinion among scouts as to whether Tillman or Matusz is the better prospect, and what their ceilings are. Can either be an ace? It is too soon to know. I think Old#5Fan is selling Matusz short to see him as a no. 3-4 though. Everything I've read suggests he's a 2/3 at the worst. Was McNally an ace? Cuellar? Flangan? McGregor? All were lefties on the same staff as Palmer at one time or another, and though none of them had Palmer's career, they each were very good pitchers and had seasons in which they were better than Palmer for that particular year. If Tillman is Palmer and Matusz is McNally/Cuellar/Flanagan/McGregor, I will be OK with that.
  14. I don't think scouting reports really help much when you are facing a pitcher who throws five different pitches, can vary speeds, can cut his fastball when he feels like it, and has excellent command. You may know what he can throw, but you still have no idea what he is going to throw. This guy is a left-handed Mike Mussina, minus 2 mph on his fastball. The batters will never be able to outguess him.
  15. Mora is better than most in those situations. Let's not pile on too hard.
  16. 11 pitches, 7 for strikes. That's a nice, efficient inning.
  17. Your Snyder numbers are out of date after his 3 for 5 performance this afternoon. His BA is now .269 and he is on fire (19 hits in the last 10 games), so don't count out the chance that he ends up at .280-.290 or higher. We've had this argument a million times already, but the O's are not likely to have outstanding offensive production in all eight spots in the field plus DH, nor do they have to in order to be contenders. But, plainly we need better production from 1B/SS/3B as a group to build an offense that can contend.
  18. Frobby

    Sherrill's first game

    Any time a pitcher comes in with runners on 1st and 2nd, nobody out and doesn't allow a run to score, he has done a heck of a job. And if nobody even hits the ball into fair territory, that's REALLY doing a job.
  19. Actually, Snyder typically does not have many cold spells. I have followed him extremely closely since his stint in the Hawaiian Winter League in 2007. From the time he started playing in Hawaii to the time he got promoted to AAA, I'd say he only had one cold streak that lasted longer than maybe a week. That was in April 2008 at the start of his season at Frederick. To me, one of the most impressive things about Snyder has been that he very rarely goes more than 1-2 days without getting a hit. However, that hasn't been as true since he came to Norfolk. So, it will be interesting to see whether this is just a 10-day outburst that will be followed soon by another ice-cold spell, or whether he will hit well for the remaining 30 games.
  20. He finished 3 for 5. That's 4 3-hit games in the last 10 games. That, my friends, is sizzling.
  21. I think anyone's cupboard would be depleted considering the number of players who have reached the majors this year. A good farm system should produce 2-3 major leaguers a year. We've had 7 guys reach the majors for the first time this year, and 6 of them figure to be long-term pieces (I'm excluding Berken for that purpose, though he still could make it). For the next 1-2 years, I think you have Arrieta, Britton, Erbe, Snyder and Bell as guys likely to reach the majors in that time frame. Joseph and Waring also are possibilities, along with Justin Turner. That's still a pretty good stable in that time frame.
  22. Well, 5 K's in 10 games is just fine. Lack of BB isn't great but when you are hitting .444 you must be seeing a lot of good pitches to hit. Let's hope this is the beginning of a sustained hot streak for Snyder. I'd like to see him get his average up to .280 or so by the time the season is over, and that puts him in good position to reach the majors by May/June of next year. By the way, here's an odd split on Snyder: he's hitting .300/.379/.475 at home, and .213/.224/.267 on the road. So, obviously Harbor Park has not been a problem for him.
  23. There are quite a few teams who drafted ahead of the Orioles who wish they had picked Lincecum, too. That's the way it goes. If Wieters, Matusz and Snyder all pan out, I'll happily take 3 out of 4. (Too soon to talk about Hobgood.)
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