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Everything posted by Frobby

  1. Guthrie pitched a fair number of innings in college and the minors. 2002: 157 2003: 159.1 2004: 161.1 2005: 142.1 2006: 142.2 He's at 118.2 right now. He should be fine through August, but in September they may need to ease up on him.
  2. This is a pretty good assessment of Guthrie. To say that he doesn't have a second out pitch like Bedard's curve is hardly a ciriticism, since Bedard's curve is probably the best in baseball right now. I think he's probably been a bit lucky, but to some degree he makes his own luck. What I mean by that is that he's fast worker with good control, which keeps the defense on their toes and allows the fielders to know which way to shade based on the expected location of the pitch. I think the league will adjsut to him, but he's a smart guy and will adjust back. He's a keeper.
  3. I can agree with this. However, Guthrie's two starts that immediately preceded his one blowout were both games where he pitched much better than his final line indicated. Overall I would say that any worries I had that Guthrie was beginning to fray have been assuaged. That was an excellent outing yesterday.
  4. Did you ever read the excellent biography of Sandy Koufax? He spent a lot of time contemplating the physics of throwing a baseball. But I agree, thinking about it isn't as important as being able to do it. My favorite comment along these lines was when Hank Aaron came to bat as a young player and he had the label of the bat facing towards the pitcher. The catcher told him he was supposed to be able to read the label. Aaron relied, "I didn't come up here to read."
  5. I don't even know who LA's pitching coach is, but I'd have to say he has done a pretty good job. They've been 3rd in ERA three years running and in the top 6 for 7 years in a row.
  6. Frobby

    The Hebrew Hammer

    Depends what denomination you are. If you are orthodox, then you won't recognize a child as Jewish if his mother was Christian. Some other denominations have relaxed this rule.
  7. For the record: Tejada for Santana and Aybar was a pretty close call at the time, though I wouldn't have done it. But I think that's a much worse trade for us now, even though Tejada has one less year to play.
  8. That is true. But what you said was: As if it was uttelry ridiculous that this could happen. It's not ridiculous at all. If I had to give odds on Miggy having an .850 OPS in 2008, I'd peg the odds at 33%.
  9. You are aware that Derek Jeter's OPS at ages 32 and 33 have been higher than they were at ages 28-31, right? That he declined significantly 4 straight years and then reversed course? Look, if you want to talk about probabilities, and argue that Tejada probably won't see .850 again, that's fine. But the way you put it, it's just a completely foregone conclusion, and that's just wrong.
  10. We will just have to agree to disagree here. To me, Brock would have been a Hall of Famer regardless of his WS performances, but the Series show he put on is certainly a very big cherry on top of his sundae.
  11. I think they are both overrated around here. How do you like them apples!
  12. We are a long way from that. But the bigger mistake was to sign Miggy and not follow it up with another Grade A bat at a power position.
  13. I think I made it pretty clear that a couple of World Series by itself doesn't put a guy in the Hall of Fame. But it can be a major factor, and I don't think there is anything wrong with that. It may just be that the 1967-68 World Series were played when I was 10-11 years old and that they were all day games that I watched on TV. But Brock's performance in those 2 series were, in my mind, among the greatest ever. Batting average and OPS don't begin to tell the whole story here, though of course they were part of it. Brock just ran wild (14 SB's in 14 games) and drove the Red Sox and Tigers absolutely nuts. It's been 40 years and still indelibly etched in my memory, and I'm not even a Cardinals fan. Off on another tangent: it pains me that my 11 year old son won't have memories like this 40 years from now, due to MLB's acquiescence to the TV networks and playing all the games late at night.
  14. Well, here is what Bedard himself had to say: By the way, as a public service, check out this website, which I found while looking for Bedard quotes on this subject. I expect major rep points for this!
  15. I will gladly concede you Joe Morgan, Pete Rose and Rod Carew. Needless to say, 2 of those were first ballot HOFers and the other would have been if he didn't break baseball's cardinal rule and then lie about it for 2 decades. The others are guys who had a few good years, then fizzled. As you know, with only a very few exceptions, the Hall is largely about being excellent over a career of 15+ years. So I won't argue about whether Ron LeFlore or Bill North had a couple of seasons where they arguably were as good as Brock. One other thing: there is a place in the Hall for players who were very good and also did something very memorable in the World Series. Brock's back-to-back Series performances rank among the best EVER. But I guess you had to be there.
  16. I disagree with both the generalities and the specifics of your post. Ron Santo may be underrated, but there are very few fans from that era who would not realize tha the was a much better player than Maury Wills. Santo in his prime was probably a better overall player than Brooks Robinson. He was a 9-time all-star (Wills was a 5-time all-star). Put it this way: in the period Brock played (1960-1979), who was a better leadoff hitter? In my opinion, he's first by a mile. Moreover, winning matters. His teams won, and he was a big reason why.
  17. To me, the biggest value of sabermetrics in HOF discussions is identifying players who didn't get much attention but deserve consideration. You didn't need sabermetrics to understand that Brock was a great player. And yes, I mean great. He was a totally disruptive force, played great on baseball's biggest stage and was a key component of some really great teams.
  18. When I read this, I went to check your profile to see how old you are. There is almost nobody alive who watched Lou Brock's career who would agree with you. 3000 hits is an automatic ticket to the Hall, but even if Brock didn't have that credential, he would have been a shoe-in. He held the all-time record for stolen bases, breaking a record that Ty Cobb had held for a half-century. He held the record for most stolen bases in a season. He led the league in stolen bases 8 times. He led the league at least once in singles, doubles, triples, and runs. He was a six-time all star and received MVP votes in 10 different seasons, finishing as high as second. On top of all that was Brock's unbelievable performance in the 1967 and 1968 World Series. In '67 he hit .414/.452/.655, scoring 8 runs and stealing 7 bases. In '68 he hit .464/.516/.857, scoring 6 runs and stealing 7 bases. I promise you, if you had watched those two series, there wouldn't be a doubt in your mind that Lou Brock was one of the greatest players of his era.
  19. I have to say that when the O's either make a trade or don't make a trade, it always makes me happy when the guys we didn't get (or traded away) don't do too well. Imagine if Santana was 11-3 right now, the gnashing of teeth around here would be unbearable.
  20. No hit for Nick last night, but he did knock in his 14th run in 15 July games. He is now on pace for 99 RBI on the year. Barring injury I will be shocked if he isn't well over 100 by the time the year is done. He gets plenty of RBI opportunities (9th in the AL in AB w/RISP) and just needs to cash them in at a respectable rate.
  21. Frobby

    The Hebrew Hammer

    The American Jewish Historical Society sells a set of baseball cards (made by or for them) of every Jewish player who even appeared in the major leagues from the beginning of MLB until a year or two ago. A lot of players with 5 or 10 AB, and just a handful of really good players. The list of current players is actually pretty impressive. However, it doesn't really work to call Youkilis the Jewish God of Walks.
  22. The 500 HR club has grown much faster than the 3000 hit club and I suspect that will continue to be the case. And I think the 300-win club is going to be closed entirely for a good long while after Glaving and maybe Randy Johnson make it. In 10 years 250 wins will be seen the way 300 wins used to be seen. As to Nick's chances of the HOF, look at it this way. Every year, an average of 2-3 players make the Hall. That means that every year, on average 2-3 players entering baseball eventually will make the Hall. So if you look at all the players who broke in last year and assigned them odds of who will be the top 2 or 3, that would be about the same as assessing their Hall chances. Viewed that way, I think its' fair to say Nick has a 15% chances of being one of the top 2-3 players from the class of 2006 when their careers are done.
  23. I think the 2004 Red Sox are a pretty good example of what you are saying. From a statistical standpoint Nomar Garciaparra's offense made up for his defensive shortcomings, but given the heavy-hitting makeup of that particular team it turned out to be better to have a defense-first shortstop, so they traded Nomar and won the World Series.
  24. I would have to agree that Tejada's offense has not been "great" this year in comparison with the league average. So, you have to form an opinion as to whether going forward Tejada's offense will be closer to his performance over the last 3 years or his performance in the first 69 games of this year. But either way, his offense is great compared to Gomez/Fahey/Hernandez.
  25. I wouldn't. If the best hitting prospect your system churns out in a decade is Brady Anderson or Paul O'Neill, you aren't going very far. Those are very good players but not at the level Nick needs to be at. He doesn't have to be a Hall of Famer but he has to be a guy who at his peak is a serious MVP candidate.
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