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Everything posted by Frobby

  1. If we do lose Tex, I just hope he's getting a contract that is well beyond reasonable. It would really bum me out if we offered as much or more and Tex chose Boston anyway. If that's true, we're back to the "confederate money" days.
  2. This is out of control, and the Orioles need to stay far away.
  3. Cameron will be 36 this season, he'll fit right in on the Yankees. He's still a pretty good player, but this move shows me the Yankees didn't think Cabrera had a future. Cameron's a free agent at the end of the year so I guess the Yankees will go another direction then.
  4. Ouch! So the mainstream media wasn't being dismissive of Baltimore just for no reason at all - surprise, surprise. Let's hope it still turns out differently but I'm bracing for the worst possible outcome here.
  5. You are forgetting a huge component here. You are right that Tex's loyalty to the city of Baltimore or the fact that he once rooted for the Orioles isn't likely to carry much weight. But what could carry a lot of weight is the desire to live near his parents, family and other people he grew up with. I know, because it was important to me. I went to law school in California. I loved the weather, I loved the lifestyle, and I had good friends there. I had good job offers there when I graduated. But at the end of the day, being close to my family and my friends I grew up with was more important to me. It's been 26 years since I made the decision to come home, and I haven't regretted it. I don't know how important those factors are to Tex. But I do know that you can't dismiss their importance without knowing Tex personally and knowing what is important to him or not.
  6. So what are you saying, Roy? That Rowell is an arrogant jerk? That his arrogance prevents him from working on the things he needs to do to develop his talent? Or that he doesn't have talent, and thinks that he does? There's plenty of evidence out there that Rowell is arrogant and immature. That's annoying, but not necessarily fatal. He was 19 years old this season. Lots of kids, especially athletes, are arrogant and immature at that age. Hopefully they either grow out of it naturally, or they have a few life experiences that take them down a peg and force them to grow out of it. The real issue here is does he have the talent we thought he had when he was drafted, and will he do the work necessary to hone his talent and get better. Although I think Rowell is far more arrogant and immature than his teammate Brandon Erbe, I think you can look at Erbe's early career, including his first year at Frederick at age 19, and draw some parallels. Erbe started out like a ball of fire the summer he was drafted, at age 17, and had a very strong first full year at Delmarva (though not without hiccups) at age 18. Then he hit Frederick at 19, thought he could just keep what he'd been doing without making adjustments the coaches were recommending, and had a terrible year. That experience taught him something, and by accounts I've heard he was much more amenable to listening to his coaches this time around and the results showed it. He wasn't spectacular this year, but he was very good while still being young for the league at age 20, and now he appears back on the path for success. Perhaps he needed his humbling 2007 experience in order to develop. So now Rowell has all winter to confront the fact that he wasn't very good this season. He played with teammates such as Matt Wieters, Brandon Snyder, Jake Arrieta and Brandon Erbe who are all moving on to bigger things, while he's going to have to repeat Frederick. If he was paying attention and has any common sense at all, he'll come in next year determined to do what it takes to get back on the right track, and scale back the attitude a bit. Only time will tell, but I'm far from writing him off. It's way too soon.
  7. I think Tex should consider this: do you think there's a message board covering the Red Sox, Angels or Nats that has a 157-page thread going on whether their team will sign Tex? Has there EVER been a free agent this coveted by a team's fans? Seriously. I must say that in the national media, and even in the Washington media that has a substantial Baltimore readership, the Orioles are still being treated as an afterthought with regard to Tex.
  8. Here's a little tidbit - Izturis is playing in the Venezuelan Winter League, where he is hitting .326/.383/.395 in 46 plate appearances. http://mlb.mlb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?t=t_ibp&sid=l135&cid=693
  9. Boston had a different owner, president and GM at the time of the events you are referencing regarding Tex. I doubt he's holding John Henry, Larry Lucchino or Theo Epstein resonsible. If being on a contender is more important than playing near home for Tex, these writers may have a legitimate point of view. But I doubt they know that.
  10. If these offers are legit, I'm pretty sure the Angels will drop out of the running, as they had previously said they would not go beyond 7-8 years.
  11. Your bias is showing. The Nats are in a lower valley than we are, but the mountain they have to climb isn't as high, either. They don't have the Yankees, Red Sox and now the Rays in their division. Their payroll is very low so they have some room to play with there. They outdrew us last year by about 500,000 fans. They are just as able to turn themselves into a competitive team as we are, when you consider who they are competing with.
  12. Now that is putting your money where your mouth is! Talk softly but carry a big stick!
  13. It was, but they had some terrible developments in the last year, including several key injuries and the failure to sign Aaron Crow. They'll be downgraded a lot this time around you can be sure. Sickels rates their system far below ours at present.
  14. Living here in DC, I think the Nats are in a different position than the O's. Their fan base has no history with the team and the team really needs to be perceived as trying to do something. I realize we all think that Oriole fans have grown impatient with Angelos and the team, and that's true, but it is much worse here in DC for a variety of reasons. The city spent $600 million in public funds to build a ballpark and in return the owners have been dirt cheap with everything they have done. Now that they've gotten their one-time bump from having a new stadium, they risk losing a lot of their fan base if they don't appear to be doing something to try to win in pretty short order. For them, just being able to say they offered Tex $150 mm over 7 years is good PR.
  15. You need to know when to take that chance. Despite the bad year they had, the Braves are not far from contention in their division. With the recent addition of Vazquez, adding Burnett likely puts them right in the thick of things in the NL East in 2009. Even if Burnett hurts his arm in year 3, the investment could be worth it because it puts them in contention in years 1 and 2. In the Orioles' case, they are miles and miles from contention. If Burnett wins 16 games each of the next two years, they're still 15 games out of first place in all likelihood. And then if he's hurt in year 3 it's a huge disaster. The better approach is to build a team from within until it is on the verge of contention, then spend to put it over the top. Now's not the time to go out on a limb for a guy like Burnett who's an injury risk. Tex is a different story. He's younger and less risky. If his first two years are wasted, he'll still be around a long time. I'd rather go nuts on Tex than Burnett.
  16. Agreed. Put 4/$60 with a vesting option for a 5th year on the table and see if that's enough for him to want to play near his family. Then walk away if it's not enough.
  17. I'm far more favorably inclined towards the Izturis acquisition than I was towards Payton -- and that was before Payton's OPS dropped by 100 points after becoming an Oriole. Frankly, though, my tentative opinion on the Izturis deal won't be crystalized until I've watched him play for a month or two. If I see Bordick-worthy defense, I'll call it a success. If all I see is slightly better than league average defense, or worse, then I'll probably be unhappy.
  18. Frobby

    BP redoing WARP

    While I don't think even the PBP fielding metrics are always accurate in assessing who is a good fielder, they certainly will be better than Rate/Rate2, which I've found to be counter-instinctual and contrary to other sophisticated fielding stats about half the time. And since Rate/Rate2 is calculated in an undisclosed manner, there has never been a reason to trust it. So, this should be an improvement.
  19. For all we know, MacPhail explored the possibility of getting Hu or another major league-ready prospect and concluded the price we'd have to pay wasn't worth it. I'm not sweating this one. MacPhail and Trembley both wanted an excellent defensive SS, and they got one. On to bigger issues.
  20. I haven't shared JTrea81's optimism about our chances of landing Tex or Burnett, but I do think it's highly likely that Burnett will give the Orioles an opportunity to put their best offer on the table before he signs with another team. He'd be foolish to indicate in public that he'd even consider taking less money or less years to play in Baltimore, so it's not surprising that you aren't hearing we're involved. My guess is we'll be given a chance to weigh in, but we won't be in the same universe as some of these other offers and Burnett will go elsewhere.
  21. The latest from Rosenthal (11:55 a.m.): http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/8921818/Sources:-Braves-talking-to-Burnett;-Yanks-a-factor
  22. I predict the Burnett situation will be sorted out by next Monday at the latest. Now that CC's signed, the dominoes are going to fall, and Burnett will extract the best offer he can get from each of NY, Atlanta and Baltimore and then decide if the differential is worth the personal cost of being away from his family.
  23. I'd like to sign Zaun, though he'll cost more than the minimum. A couple of reasons: 1. He's solid enough to handle the starting job until Wieters is ready. 2. Once Wieters is here, he'll be a good mentor. 3. According to Dempsey, he's interested and understands what his role would be. 4. Not a terrible bat off the bench, compared to the Quirozes of the world. Then there's the issue of how long Wieters stays in Norfolk. As I posted in the minor league thread: - Delaying until April 15 or so defers his eligibility for free agency by a year. - Delaying until June 10 or so (probably a little earlier) prevents him from becoming a "super-two" who would be eligible for arbitration after the 2011 season. I favor delaying until April 15, and if I'm going to bring him up before early June, it has to be because he's just playing too well to keep him down any longer. So I want a good alternative while Wieters is in Norfolk.
  24. I hope that makes you feel a little better about this. I'm happy with it and excited that Wieters' glide path to the majors has this obstacle out of the way.
  25. And then there's Nick who hits lefties quite well even though he's left-handed.
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