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Everything posted by Frobby

  1. Sounds good. 2009 is going to be a fascinating, critical year down on the farm.
  2. How does Arrieta get to the majors ahead of Tillman if Tillman has spent a year in AA already and Arrieta has only played high A? I noticed in the milb.com blurb on Arrieta, they quote Joe Jordan as saying he thinks AA is very important for Arrieta because in Frederick he was able to get away with relying on his fastball a lot without using his other pitches as much as he'll need to against better competition. Wouldn't that suggest that Tillman is likely to reach the majors first? Believe me, I'm neutral on who gets there first, just so long as when they get there, they are ready to succeed.
  3. Because Mussina's 5 year, $62.5 mm demand was extremely reasonable and should have been accepted on the spot. That was very in line with what other pitchers around his stature were getting, and he had given the team a home-town discount in his previous contract. He was one of the best,most consistent, reliable pitchers in baseball, and he had done it as an Oriole. If you don't reward that, you're a fool. I'm just praying we don't screw Nick up like we screwed that up.
  4. My recollection is that, before the 2000 season began, Moose had wanted 5 years, $62.5 mm. Sometime during the season, the Orioles eventually offered 5 years, $60 mm but with a lot of the money deferred. Mussina declined, declared free agency, and the Yankees offered their 6 year, $88.5 mm deal almost as soon as free agency started, blowing away anything the Orioles had ever offered, and even the amount Moose had been willing to accept from the O's prior to the FA period. The O's then made a last ditch offer that Moose summarily rejected. It was a total screw-up by the O's from day one.
  5. I think he meant a free agent from another team. Technically, you are correct that Mussina was a free agent when we made our final offer to him. Did we really get as high as $78 mm? I don't recall that, but if we did, I think it was after the Yankee deal was already on the table.
  6. I hadn't realized that the White Sox had offered him arbitration. Excellent point.
  7. I was a little disappointed Wieters didn't garner the #1 spot, but there's no doubt Price is also quite exceptional. Loved the Wieters video. For those too lazy to go to the site: http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/minorleagues/prospects/y2009/profile.jsp?t=p_top&pid=446308
  8. 1. My recollection is that the Bedard deal dragged out in the end becuase of some convoluted legal issue about Adam Jones taking his physical. I think it was Angelos, not MacPhail, behind that ridiculous scenario. 2. Even if Bedard wins the Cy Young award next year, this was a great deal for the O's. We got so much in return.
  9. So who is still in the market for a SS besides us? OCab is still out there, and if there's nobody else in need of a starting SS, maybe he can be had for millions less than previously thought, and for a much shorter period of time. I had ruled him out because he'd want too many years and be too expensive, but maybe he'll have to come down the way Huff did when we signed him.
  10. Just tell the guy you really like to dog it during spring training!
  11. Let's say that by waiting an extra six weeks, AM signs Nick for $2.5 mm less than he would have if he signed him right now. Now you might say that in the scheme of a $60-70 mm contract, the $2.5 mm wasn't worth it. But that $2.5 mm might sign 2-3 "signability" draft picks. It might fund a new facility in Venezuela. It's not chicken feed we're talking about here. So if it takes a few more weeks to sign Nick to the most favorable deal possible, it's worth it. Frankly, I share your concerns about AM being passive and unaggressive. But I'm always pretty reluctant to make definitive comments when I don't know what'e really going on behind the scenes. So that's why I'll just sit back and wait until the winter is over, and make a bottom line judgment as to how AM did. I'll never really know whether he could have done better by being more aggressive, or whether he turned down deals I would have done, so I'll just go by whether what he got done was satisfactory progress in the grand scheme of things. Honestly, reading the many pages of this thread, I think everyone on the board is on edge right now while waiting for the major activity of the winter meetings and its aftermath. Let's continue this discussion on December 12 when the dust has settled. I think we'll know a lot more then.
  12. SG, the fallacy in your argument is that of course other teams are going to make moves eventually this winter. TheRick did not say he'd be happy if the O's made no moves this offseason if everyone else also did nothing. To the contrary, what he said was that he'd reserve judgment until the offseason was over. The point is that the person who makes moves the soonest isn't always the one who makes the best moves. Look how long MacPhail dragged out that Bedard deal, and the amazing deal he got in the end. Now I don't mean to suggest that moving quickly is never appropriate, either. As I said at least once today, I think we need to get rolling in the next 7-10 days on some things or we'll find that a lot of attractive options are off the table.
  13. Hee hee - check this out: http://www.metacafe.com/watch/1121823/marriage_proposal_rejected_at_basketball_game/
  14. Actually, he never held the title of GM. That title hasn't existed in the Baltimore front office since the time Thrift took over. For any practical purpose, though, we all know MacPhail's the GM and has been since the day he got here. Also, since almost all of us know nothing about the inner workings of the Orioles' front office, how can we say if we could do Flanagan's job? I'm sure he is vastly overpaid for what he's now doing, and that his job title is way above his actual responsibility, but I don't think we can assume he does nothing at all, or nothing useful. Now, some of our posters who have sources inside the building probably have all the juicy details, and they often hint at things, but nobody has ever come out and said that Flanagan literally has no useful responsibilities.
  15. I know you're a Duq fan (on a personal level at least), and that's fine. But leaving was probably the right career move for him, too, to be fully available for something else and not be perceived as being paid to do nothing. And I really don't have a problem with Flanagan's decision to stay. He probably thought he could still be of some use to MacPhail due to his knowledge of the system. And, he bleeds orange and black.
  16. If we do nothing all winter, I'll be right behind you. However, some things we did in the last 10 months: - Acquired Bass - Traded Bradford - Signed Alfredo Simon - Traded for Juan Castro - Picked up Alex Cintron - Signed Lance Cormier Now, I'm not suggesting that any of those were major blockbusters, or that any have turned into major coups. But its not as if he did absolutely nothing. There weren't many major in-season trades by any team, if you'll recall, and not that much has happened this offseason in the grand scheme of things.
  17. Duquette elected to leave, he wasn't fired. He saw he'd have no real responsibility and chose to go. Flanny saw he'd have no responsibility and chose to stay. Undertstandable, since one is pretty much an Oriole lifer with no front office ambitions anywhere else, while one is truly a career baseball executive.
  18. Let's not forget the Roberts for LaRoche/Giles deal that PA supposedly vetoed. In principle I don't like PA butting in, but that was a lousy deal. Now I should say, my post was intended to single out the bad stuff. I could certainly find examples of good stuff, like picking up Guthrie off the waiver wire, the CPat trade (didn't turn out great but a worthy gamble), and signing BRob to a favorable extension. But on net the team just treaded water or worse.
  19. Yes, but the stats don't show his range to be that bad. Personally I thought he played better as the year went along. He seemed tentative coming in on balls early in the season, but it was less of a problem later on. Maybe a function of switching from RF to LF and making the adjustment?
  20. Well, he was there when we paid ridiculous sums to Payton and Baez. He was there when we signed Ramon. He was there when we didn't trade Tejada to the Angels. He was there when we extended Mora. He was there when we signed both Conine and Millar in the same offseason. He was there when we gave a four-year deal to Jay Gibbons. He was there when we traded Maine and Julio for Benson. Now to be fair, I liked some of those moves at the time they were made, or was at least neutral. But there was plenty of criticism of them at the time, and most of them certainly didn't work out. So yeah, I feel he got a fair shot.
  21. As someone said, "you make your own breaks." MacPhail's patient approach has paid huge dividends at times, but we've seen quite a few doors close due to an apparent lack of urgency on our end. We'll see how it all plays out over the next three months, but the next 7-10 days are pretty crucial if you ask me and we'd better be prepared to close some deals or risk having our options severely limited.
  22. Frobby the vocab policeman, here to pick a nit that always bothers me for some reason. It's "moot point," not "mute point." A moot point is a point that is no longer relevant because of something that has happened. A mute point would be a point that can't speak. Now if I can just stop people from using "dominate" when they mean "dominant," my life's work will be done.
  23. Maybe the short stride allows him to repeat his delivery well and maintain command of his pitches. I think he'd get more velocity and movement on his heater with a better stride, though. Oh well, I'll leave it to the Oriole coaches to change the way he throws and mess him up.
  24. Just some thoughts after watching those videos about 5 times each. Both Tillman and Arrieta have a very intimidating demeanor on the mound, throwing over the top and really boring down on the hitter. I was a little surprised by Matusz's very short stride - he throws kind of like Jamie Moyer or Brian Burres. I think he could use his size and disguise the ball better than he does here. But that's just my offahnd impression.
  25. Julio was unfairly maligned when he was here. In his three years as closer: 1.99 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 25 saves, 6 blown 4.38 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 36 saves, 8 blown 4.57 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 22 saves, 4 blown Compare that to: 2.73 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 33 saves, 5 blown - Ray 2006 4.43 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 16 saves, 4 blown - Ray 2007 4.73 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 31 saves, 6 blown - Sherrill 2008 In Julio's three years he saved 83 games and blew 18 (82%). Ray and Sherrill the last 3 years have saved 80 games and blown 15 (84%). Pretty marginal difference, yet Julio drew far more ire than either Ray or Sherrill ever has. None of these guys are Rivera, Papelbon or K-Rod. My observation is that most closers are streaky. In Julio's case, he had a slider that was nasty when he could control it, but when he couldn't, he would become a one-pitch pitcher throwing from behind in the count, which is a recipe for disaster. So he'd go for a month looking lights out, then go a week or two where he just looked awful. OldFan#5 says he was just a thrower, but I think his problem was he was a 2-pitch pitcher who lost command of one of his two pitches about 30% of the time. It wasn't mental, but physical in my opinion. And I do think that Ray has the same issues, but doesn't lose his command as often.
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