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Frobby

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Posts posted by Frobby


  1. Over the course of 5 plate appearances, Jon Knott has raised his career line from .176/.222/.294 to .286/.348/.524

    Brilliant! So now he has an .872 career OPS to go along with his career minor league .901 OPS. The guy can flat out hit -- KEEP HIM!


  2. If anyone thinks that Boston and New York bats are going to slumber all season, they're daft. 2005 ring a bell?

    Who says their bats are slumbering, especially the Yankees? Here the top AL teams in the only offensive category that really matters, runs per game:

    Yankees 6.38

    Devil Rays 5.27

    Blue Jays 5.00

    Red Sox 4.85

    Mariners 4.80

    Tigers 4.73

    Rangers 4.71

    Orioles 4.67

    If anyone is overachieving here, it's the Yankees. The have the best offense in the league, but does anyone really think they will score 180 runs more than the 2nd best offense? That is what they are on pace to do. The Red Sox are in 4th; last year they were 6th so theri bats are hardly slumbering. As to the Orioles, they are 8th which is just about where I expect them to be. Maybe 5th if all goes really well, maybe 9th or 10th if things go poorly.


  3. Frobby, all five of those teams on the bullpen list made the playoffs. ;)

    Sapper, last year the Twins were 3-3 against the Yankees and 5-1 against the Red Sox. The A's were 6-3 against the Yankees and 7-3 against the Red Sox.

    2005, White Sox were 3-3 against the Yankees, 3-4 vs. Boston. Anaheim 6-4 vs. NY, 4-6 vs. Boston.

    2004, Twins 2-4 and 4-2. Anaheim 5-4 and 4-5.

    2003, Twins 0-7 and 4-2. Oakland 6-3 and 4-3.

    So, sorry if I choose not to believe your "facts." :rolleyes:

    I think we have debunked Sapper's myth here, but there are other points in his original post that are probably correct and shouldn't get lost:

    1. If you overspend on one aspect of the team, that inhibits your ability to improve other aspects of your team.

    2. The differential between the Yankees' offense and the Orioles' is so large that it would be just about impossible for improvements to the bullpen, by itself, to make up for that difference.

    Which, of course, brings us back to the starting pitching. We are NOT going to catch up to the Yankees offense any time soon. At best we might narrow the 162-run offensive gap from 2006 to, say, 100-125 runs. A bullpen can't be expected to save 100 runs more than another bullpen, so you have to make up a lot of the gap by starting pitching.


  4. Did I say anything about STARTING pitching?

    Of the four factors in winning a pennant in the AL East I'd say the order of importance is probably offense, with starting pitching a close second, bullpen and then defense.

    So to answer the question of whether the bullpen is "money well spent" you have to ask the question: Is it or will it constain our ability to improve elsewhere, primarily offense. I think it probably has and will. Therefore, it is questionable as to whether the money is well-spent unless you have the Yankee's budget to work with.

    I don't believe that there is some magic formula to winning in the AL East that is different than winning anywhere else in baseball. Sure it is true that the Yankees and Red Sox have had great offenses over the last 10 years, but that doesn't mean that some other team couldn't win with a different formula. If you moved the Tigers to the AL East I think they would compete just fine even though their offense is nowhere near as good as the Yankees.

    Here are the top 5 bullpens from 2006:

    1. Twins

    2. Mets

    3. Padres

    4. Tigers

    5. A's

    4 of those 5 made the playoffs.

    Here are the top 5 run scoring teams from last year:

    1. Yankees

    2. Indians

    3. White Sox

    4. Phillies

    5. Braves

    One of those teams made the playoffs.

    I'm not saying it would be that way every year, just that there is more than one way to skin a cat.

    • Upvote 1

  5. No doubt that a bullpen can win you games...I have been right there with Mweb about the importance of a good pen.

    The idea of a 6 inning game is a great one and is a reason alot of teams have won the WS.

    And I need to keep coming back to this point. Beyond the 6-10 extra wins you get, it is the quality of those wins (or perhaps more accurately, the non-losses).

    To illustrate, take Tuesday's loss to Tampa. Did that game depress you? Do you even remember much about it, two days after it was played?

    Compare that with the loss to the Yankees on April 7. I could still tell you, batter by batter, exactly how we lost that game, and it still sticks in my craw. As does the save we blew for Kris Benson last year against the Marlins, the one we blew for Erik Bedard to end his winning streak last July/August, the Big Papi walk off agaisnt BJ Ryan in May 2005, and many others I could tick off right now.

    Every team is going to have some blown saves, but minimizing them saves a ton of psychic energy. Even the ones less dramatic than those I listed above. In fact, even minimizing the games where the team ALMOST blows the save conserves that energy. And, think of how much easier it is for Perlozzo to decide when a starter is losing effectiveness when he knows he has a great bullpen to go to. Last year Rodrigo Lopez lost a couple of games because Sam left him out there too long because the alternatives weren't any better.


  6. You don't WIN games with the bullpen. You can only lose them there. You WIN games by scoring runs.

    See, I disagree. Take the first Tampa game as an example. We were down 6-1, and of course we had to score runs to win, but we also had to make sure there was no further damage. The great job by the bullpen won that game just as much as the offense did.

    I also don't this team is (or will be) as anemic on offense as you believe. They will be middle of the pack, in my opinion.


  7. I am sure he will have his good games Frobby but i really don't get why you obsess so much in defending a guy who even you think will have an ERA close to 6.

    And i would be willing to bet that you would have expected a healthy Benson to be better than a healthy Trachsel this year, in the AL, playing for us.

    Yes, I think Benson probably would have been better.

    But I see a baseball season as a mystery that unfolds, with surprise twists and turns, rather than some rote play where you have seen it 100 times and already know every line. Some players will be better than I expected, while others will be worse. So I don't just make a predicition about a guy and assume I will be right on the money. Trachsel is a perfect example. I predicted himfor a 5.75 ERA, but anything between 4.75 and 6.75 would not really surprise me very much. And at 4.75 Trachsel would be a pretty useful pitcher. So I'm not "defending" him, I'm recognizing that he has some upside if things go well, and hoping that they do.


  8. With his peripheral stats, even as poor as they were a few years ago before the injury, he is still in deep trouble in AL.

    Then add in the back and his age and you have the makings for a much larger disaster than Benson.

    To me, Trachsel already has proven, in his first two starts, that when he is on his game he is capable of pitching well against good-hitting AL teams. The question is simple: how often will he be on his game? He doesn't have a lot of margin of error, as his last start showed. He was sailing along but as soon as he started getting his pitches up even a little he couldn't get batters out.


  9. And here are the numbers you're ignoring.

    Over the past 5 seasons, Trachsel shows an ERA+ of around 106. Benson shows an ERA+ of around 95.

    The bottom line is that Trachsel has given up earned runs at a significantly better rate than Benson. And that's on a park- and league-adjusted basis. So there go your "Trax's numbers figure to be much worse in the AL" and "Trax was in the pathetic NL and in a great pitchers park" arguments.

    I think the real question is whether to judge Tachsel on the last 5 years, or whether to put more emphasis on last year. He was hurt in 2005 and then came back at age 36 in 2006 and wasn't as effective as before. So 2002-05 may have very limited relevance. Or, on the other hand, it could be that last year was the first year back from surgery and Trax will revert to closer to his five-year norm now. I think we just have to wait it out.


  10. I'd suppose taking 4 of 6 from the Royals and Rays doesn't pop up on many screens among the big-time writers, though, does it?

    Actually, it's 5 of 6.

    The O's won't get any attention for quite a while, even if they play well. And after what happened in 2005, that's not surprising. Just around the time the media finally started paying attention to the Orioles's hot start that year, they fell apart. So I don't think you'll hear boo about the Orioles unless they are within 3 games of 1st place on Memorial Day, if even then.


  11. Let's just all agree that the bullpen has been brilliant so far and until they blow up, give some credit to Duke and Flanny for actually doing something aggressive and surprisingly creative in an attempt to improve the team instead of sitting around whining about how tough the free agent market is and how insane the salaries are, which is what we've gotten to enjoy in the past.

    I get the feeling that we could be 15 - 0 and there'd still be whining about how bad the Baez contract was...

    Yes, this is my main point. As I have said before, the main priority was, FIX THE PROBLEM. They did fix it, and it appears they fixed it VERY WELL. What was a weakness is now a strength. And that is causing them to win more games, and equally importantly, they are keeping my blood pressure low. The whole game, from about the 4th inning on, seems different when you have confidence in your bullpen. It is just so nice not to have that "ticking time bomb" feeling. I think everyone here knows exactly what feeling I am talking about.

    And yes, it might have been possible to achieve the same result more cost efficiently. Maybe. But put it this way: what would you pay for 256 innings at a 2.28 ERA? That is what Baez, Bradford, Walker and Williamson are on pace for right now. And so, for now, I'm very pleased with the front office's strategy and their execution of it.


  12. Our pen has pitched the second most innings in the league so far. We might run into trouble if our starters don't last longer or our offense can't win games earlier.

    I agree with this. Luckily we have a lot of depth in the pen and we are spreading the work around. And hopefully we will eventually get Loewen deeper into some games. He is the main culprit so far.


  13. We have no idea if the BP is worth every penny.

    What if we win 85 games this year and the BP arms we signed flop next year?

    Can we please stop judging these guys on one week, one month or even one season.

    You are such a killjoy! ;) Don't take things so literally. I was just expressing how I feel, right now. Watching a bad bullpen for 162 games is extemely painful. Watching a good bullpen even for 2-1/2 weeks is such a pleasure.

    • Upvote 1

  14. Go ahead and criticize the Orioles for overpaying for some of the new bullpen guys if you want. Overall, in the big picture, they are worth every penny.

    You can't buy what we have right now: peace of mind. The Orioles get the lead, it's past the 5th inning, and you just have the feeling the game is over. Perlozzo has so many weapons it's almost embarassing.

    I was little nervous in that first week about Danys Baez. In his very first outing he got the results but looked shaky, similar to many outings LaTroy Hawkins had last year. And then in his third outing he had that terrible meltdown that set the table for ray to blow the save. But more recently he has been lights out. My favorite stat: including today, he has had four outings (in 8 appearances) where he knocked off the 8th inning in less than 10 pitches. Come in, throw strikes, inning over. Very nice.

    Ray is not the high priced part of the pen but he also has looked great ever since the NY meltdown. For those who were complaining about his declining peripherals in the 2nd half last year, how does 10 K's vs. 1 BB in 8.2 IP grab you?

    All in all I could not be happier with the state of the pen. It hasn't looked this good top to bottom since 1997.


  15. Jon Knott provided irrefutable evidence today that he needs to stay on the roster. 2 hits including a key RBI single.

    I really hope Sam rethinks this. Yes Bynum has his uses, but he is a luxury. Knott is a necessity.


  16. But none of this matters.

    You guys keep making the excuse that Sammy doesn't have his full compliment of players....And while that is true, he is even further hurting himself because of who has up here to replace them.

    What i am saying is these excuses don't make up for how bad he is and that his decisions with the roster are hurting us, with or without Ramon and Payton.

    First of all, I am not making any excuses for Perlozzo. Isn't that the team motto, "no excuses?"

    What I am saying is that I don't find these particular roster decisions indefensible. You can question them, but I think the rationale is reasonable. Whereas, in my opinion, there is no logic whatsoever in keeping Bynum over Knott once Payton is back here.


  17. No offense but you didn't say one thing here that exuses anything.

    We lost 2 key offensive players and instead of replacing them and not missing a beat, he replaced them with garbage.

    I actually feel it would be more inexcusable to leave Bynum on the team once these guys return than it was to have him on the team while they were gone. As to Castillo vs. House, it depends just how abysmal a defensive catcher House is, and I can't make a judgment because I've never seen him play.


  18. I think the folks that believe things will all fall into place for the O's just as soon as Ramon Hernandez and Jay Payton return are in for an unpleasant surprise.

    Nobody should go so far as to say that. But let's just say this: the absence of Hernandez and Payton places far greater stress on areas where everyone already know we had some weaknesses. We knew we had a weak-hitting back-up catcher, but we didn't expect him to get more than maybe 10-12 AB at this stage of the season. We knew we still had some vulnerability to LHP, but we didn't knwo that tow players who had .800+ OPS vs.LHP last year would be out of the lineup forcing our lefties to play. We knew Gibbons and/or Millar would be something of an adventure in LF, but we didn't know they'd be out there every single game. All three of those weaknesses will still exist once Payton and Hernandez are back, but they will be less pronounced.

    The flip side will be that Perlozzo will probably play Payton too much against RHP.


  19. But then you need ANOTHER +13 win increase and while the pitching should stay as good and really, should get better, alot of the hitting may get worse.

    I think that is something people forget...Everyone is so intent on a lousy 500 record that they forget we need 95+ wins to be a playoff team.

    NY Mets:

    2004 -- 71 wins

    2005 -- 83 wins

    2006 -- 97 wins

    That's the model, more or less. We would need to add our equivalent of Carlos Delgado and hopefully get some help from Reimold.


  20. Wow lots of potshots at the Cubs and the NLC.

    I'd have expected the folks here to refute my opinions if they don't agree with them, rather than go that other route.

    Have you seen much during the O's 7-6 start to indicate that the consensus preseason prediction that put 3rd place/.500 record as the O's best case scenario might be offbase?

    I assume your comment about people taking potshots at the Cubs and the NLC is not directed at me, even though you then go on to quote my statement about waiting until July before making judgments as to where the Orioles are heading. I don't think I've ever mentioned the Cubs or the NLC in response to any post you've ever made, unless your post made direct reference to the Cubs or the NLC. I am not a Cub basher, an NLC basher or for that matter a davearm basher since I think you add a good objective view to this board.

    As to your question about the O's 7-6 start, I haven't drawn conclusions one way or the other. I personally predicted, back in January, that the O's would win 83 games plus or minus 7, but with something very close to 83 the most likely. Nothing that has happened so far has changed my overall prediction or my level of uncertainty. Winning 76 games (-7) would be grounds to blow up the team. Winning 90 games (+7) would be grounds to keep the team and try to add 1-2 key pieces. And if its almost exactly 83 wins, this may sound like a cop-out, but it's a borderline case and I'll need to see how they got there. But probably, I'd be inclined to keep the core together and try to add if that's the case. +13 wins in a season would have me pretty encouraged.


  21. Blow it up. Now. The plan in effect is not working.

    The team might have taken that approach at the start of the winter, or it might take that approach in July. But right now "the plan in effect is not working" is a prediction, not a fact. I'll tell you whether I think the plan is working 3 months from now.


  22. #1...This is the Orioles we are talking about...Incompetence is their specialty.

    #2...As i said, Turnbow was owed alot of money and maybe the Orioles didn't want to pay him that coming off of the year he had last year.

    It's very hard to know if Turnbow was really available for Lopez. I forget the source of that rumor, but there were also rumors that we could get Mench or Thames for Lopez. I'm inclined to discount all that as just speculation.


  23. The frightening thing is that the O's are fielding virtually a whole team of guys living in the middle-market free agent region that you advocate avoiding.

    Yes, and Drungo has been critical of them for years for this reason. However, I'm willing to let the year play out and see what bang they get for their buck.

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