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Posts posted by Frobby

  1. I also hate that they'll probably spend 3/27 on a guy like Lilly (because that's under the magic number that came from nowhere) when they could just keep Lopez and Benson for less money and fewer years.

    As I and others have said, I'd rather sign NO pitching than get anyone other than Schmidt.

    I tend to agree with you, unless we pull off a trade that sends Cabrera or one of the other pitchers elsewhere for a major bat like Tex. In that case, getting a solid no. 3 type makes some sense.

  2. Right, because PA has done extensive market research and statistical analyses, and he has scientifically concluded that $10 million is the absolute most any pitcher, ever, should make.

    Any by that, I mean that he pulled that number directly out of his ass.

    I am looking at this more charitably. It isn't that PA would never pay a free agent pitcher more than $10 mm/year. It's that the organization has decided that the three guys who will earn more than that this winter aren't at all likely to come here and/or worth pursuing, and that they are better off focusing their energies elswewhere. If that's the rationale, it's OK with me.

    In response to your inquiry to me -- Duquette had nothing to do with Pavano. I was just pointing out that BB has not been as critical of the Oriole adminisitration since Duquette came on board.

    Pavano does serve as a poster boy for the dangers of giving huge $$ to free agent pitchers who have only had one or two good years. I don't feel that Zito or Schmidt are comaparable to Pavano in that regard. The Japanese guy, I have no opinion of one way or the other.

  3. Buster Olney's take from yesterday:They have to be aggressive from the outset and typically that is not the style of the organization,seems like when the musical chairs stop in January, the O's are always, ALWAYS-- the team left standing, which is why they always make a Sammy Sosa type move in late January. Says they would love to get either Lee or Soriano but don't hold your breath.

    It hasn't been their style, but I'm willing to see if this year will be different. They'ver had Duquette on board for a full year, the staff is in place, they already have had organizational meetings to review their needs, they have the MASN situation squared away. All the elements are in place to allow them to be more nimble and decisive this winter -- if Angelos allows it to happen. They will have to show me, but I'm not ruling out a different kind of approach this winter.

  4. Thanks for the info BB. However, having a hypthetical willingness to spend money, and actually spending it on players who agree to come here, are two different things. I will beleive they are making major changes, when those changes actually are made, and not before.

    As for giving Olson a look for the rotation, I don't mind giving him a look, but he needs another half-season in the minors in my opinion.

  5. No, I had Toronto scoring about 775 runs, if I remember correctly. They'll probably score around 800. The O's I had a little over 800, and they're going to be around 760-ish. The Jays have slipped a lot the second half, but they rode career performances out of a lot of guys during the first half. The O's have failed on offense mainly because Matos and Fahey were terrible in left, Mora slipped badly, Gibbons was hurt again, and Javy was pretty bad. If they'd all hit their 50% PECOTA projections and been relatively healthy this team would have scored 800 runs.

    I projected the O's to have a .760 OPS, compared to the actual .762. Just goes to show that a Ouija board works better than mathematical analysis! :D

    As to Toronto, can someone explain to me how they can be 4th in OBP, 2nd in SLG, 2nd in OPS and yet be 8th in runs scored?

  6. Ten runs a win is a very good rule of thumb. No, every team doesn't exactly follow their pythagorean predictions, but it's close enough. Every team is usually within 10 wins of their runs scored/allowed predictions, and most teams are within just a few games.

    If the O's add 50 runs and everything else stays the same five added wins is as good an estimate as any.

    So, to be a legitimate contender they need to make up about 200 runs, one way or another.

    That sure sounds like a daunting task. Let me try a modestly optimistic set of pitching assumptions:

    Bedard 200 IP 3.67 ERA (i.e., stays the same)

    Benson 190 IP 4.50 ERA (i.e., stays the same)

    Cabrera 170 IP, 4.50 ERA (similar to 2005 with a few more IP)

    Loewen 175 IP, 4.25 ERA (his current DIPS ERA is 4.14)

    Lopez/5th starter 180 IP, 5.00 ERA (similar to 2005)

    Bullpen/spot starters 555 IP, 4.75 ERA.

    That would yield 722 earned runs, which would be down about 113 from this year. Factoring in unearned runs that would get you to 120 fewer runs allowed.

    Add Soriano and one more solid offensive piece and you could be pretty close if the pitching pans out.

    Gee, I feel a little better now.

  7. I wasn't arguing the merits of Bedard or Benson, although there's no way Benson is an ace. Just saying that adding an ace would be great even if you already had 3. It's just curious that Perlozzo is being so narrow as to identify a #3 starter as a need. IMO, this makes it seem as though they've already had talks about which types of pitchers they'll be going after.

    I don't think he was saying Benson is an ace, just that Benson has been somewhat unlucky in his W/L record. No matter how you slice it he is at best a no. 3 starter on a contender.

    Bedard and Benson are not strong enough to carry three below average starters (which is what Cabrera, Loewen and Lopez were this year). Any one of those three, and even all three, could be above average next season, depending on how the chips fall. So I see no real point in going after a no. 3 type who may be no better than what you've got, unless you are going to trade Cabrera for a hitter.

  8. Isn't that a minimum of 4-5 games. I'm not sure how many games we have lost by 2 runs or less, but depending on where the extra 40-50 runs occurs, couldn't it could be as much as a 10-20 game difference?

    Well, I do think it's a fallacy to think that the relationship between runs and wins always can be described in mathematical terms. But with that said, if the Orioles had scored another 50 runs this year, they still would have been outscored by a margin of more than 50 runs on the season, which means it is highly likely they still would have had a losing record.

    What this team really needs to do is knock 100 runs off the runs allowed column.

  9. I would be shocked if Mussina isn't a Yankee in 2007. They have plenty of problems in their current rotation (used 12 different starters in 2006) and more so if Mussina isn't with them in 2007. The free agent class of this year is not nearly deep for them to just grab a replacement for him.

    I'd venture to say, by come January, Mussina/Yankees will have a new 3 year contract that will have him finishing his career in New York.

    I agree. The Yankees aren't known for discarding players who have been productive for them (unlike, ahem, some teams). He's 90-53 wearing pinstripes. He will remain a Yankee.

  10. I think Soriano is worth about 40-50 extra runs to this team's offense. I get to this figure in a couple of ways.

    First, just looking at his 162-game averages, Soriano produces 105 Runs + 95 RBI - 35 HR = 165 Runs Produced. Reduce it by 4% (assumes he'll miss 6 games) and you are left with 159 Runs Produced. Meanwhile, the Oriole left fielders, in 156 games so far this year, have produced 57 Runs + 67 RBI - 7 HR = 105 Runs Produced. So there's a 54-run differential there, and that doesn't include Soriano's impact on the rest of the lineup.

    Second, using the Runs Created formula, Oriole left fielders have created 66 runs this season. Soriano averages about 106 per season (he's at 129.5 and counting this year).

    That extra 40-50 runs would move the Orioles from 9th to 6th in run production. Probably that's worth 4-5 wins.

  11. The Soriano and Guerrero situations are not comparable. Vlad is an intorvert who has never bothered to learn English, and it was pretty clear he just didn't want to play any place where there wasn't a large Spanish-speaking population. Soriano is an extorverted guy who played in Japan before he ever played in the mjors. He's not likely to rule out Baltimore for cultural reasons.

  12. Yea, when did Tiger fans start traveling?

    Well, if you were a latent Tiger fan whose team hasn't made the playoffs in more than a decade, wouldn't you show up for a game with 10 days left in the season and a one-game lead for your team in its division?

  13. "No comprehension of what it costs to run a baseball team." OK Peter, open your books. Let's see what you get from gate attendance, concessions, the MLB deal involving the Nats, from local TV and radio, from revenue sharing, from the national TV contract, from MLB.com, from licensing, and now from MASN..

    What B.S. "Some teams charge $45 per ticket." What about the other 11 team in the AL that don't, 9 of which have a better record than we do, and 8 of which beat us head-to-head when we played them?

    • Upvote 1

  14. "Whoever joins that protest has no comprehension of what it costs to run a baseball team," Angelos said in a telephone interview from his law office in Baltimore. "When you get down to facts, putting together a team that can compete in the AL East means having a payroll between $100-$110 million. That money comes from the consumer, and I have chosen to keep ticket prices to a minimum.

    "Our payroll is $75 million, and our ticket prices average $22. Some of the teams we compete against charge an average of $45," Angelos said. "We're going to have to match the competition. How to do that is a decision I will make in the future."

    "He [Nestor] is a very unimportant person who has delusions of grandeur," Angelos said. "To begin with, to leave in the middle of the game is an abuse of the players who have worked hard and played their hearts out."

    What a jerk. "Whoever joins that protest has no comprehension of what it costs to run a baseball team." That's not the issue. The issue is that HE has no comprehension of how to RUN a baseball team.

    Is he threatening to jack up ticket prices? HA! If he thought losing 450,000 in paid attendance this year was bad, wait until next year.

  15. Sounds to me like the protesters who were there did a very good job. Cheered loudly for the team, got up when they said they would, made their point firmly but in an orderly way, and left. No major incidents or inappropriate conduct. I say thanks to them.

  16. So who is in the press box? Any national media types checking this out? What's the overall reaction in the press box? I think it's pretty dramatic that the "witching hour" came right in the middle of a big rally. I've gotta say, I probably would have walked out and then snuck into another section to keep watching....

  17. Let me try to explain why I am in favor of this protest.

    First, let me say that, as a DC-area resident, I have never heard or seen Nestor Aparcio. I don't know the first thing about him except what I read on here. I am going to assume that he is an egotistical, self-centered, publicity-seeking jerk who is doing htis for his own self-promoting reasons.

    With that said, I don't care. The fans need to send Peter Angelos a message that business as usual won't be tolerated. Aparently, the fact that attendance has been dwindling year after year hasn't sent him that message. So maybe some public humiliation of him will.

    Will it work? I don't know. But I don't see how it can possibly hurt. When the O's are in a bidding war over some free agent and a deal reaches his desk, won't he be more inclined to say yes, knowing that the fans won't put up with another winter of minor tinkering?

    And I don't think the protest will demoralize the team. The fans want the team to get better, and the protest shows that.

    I'm looking forward to watching the news tonight.

  18. What makes a better TV moment? Picketing in front of a stadium or 10,000 people getting up in the middle of a game and leaving at the same time? If they pull it off, they'll get a lot more attention this way.

    It will be interesting to see if this gets prominent mention on the early edition of Sports Center. It's not like there is much else for them to report at that time of day.

  19. Let's put it this way:

    All things being equal, I'd rather have Crisp for 3/15 than Soriano for 5/75 (or, gasp, 6/90). Crisp is more likely to revert back to his Cleveland form than Soriano is to duplicate 2006 again, IMO.

    Then you take that 60 mil and get Schmidt, or trade for Tex and extend him, whatever. That's a better use of our money.

    There are still about a million solutions in LF that I'd prefer to Soriano.

    BTW, anyone notice Soriano getting caught stealing about 3 times in his quest to reach 40? Imagine if that were in a pennant race? He would have cost his team 3 potential runs trying to reach an individual goal, when he was already going to make bank.

    That tells me a lot about Soriano.

    If we went and got Crisp and then used the other $60 mm to get some other top players, I'd be all for it. But if we go get Crisp and do nothing else of significance, well, I'd rather have Soriano, thank you. By the way, we wll have to trade somethign half decent to get Crisp, I expect. He doesn't come free.

    All I can say about Soriano is that his teammates are 100% behind him from everything I've seen and read. The fans certainly wanted to see 40/40, and I bet his teammates did, too.

  20. Several posters have said to the effect we can't win with Bostons Scrap pile guys. This is flawed reasoning in that the guy they are discarding probably is better than what we have. It is no different than taking Thome or Shealy. Those guys were disgarded but they would still make us better in a weak position. We have a couple of positions that we are better than them already and we are not going to be better at all positions nor do we have to in order to beat them. However we do need to remove the multitude of black holes on our roster and if that can be done in part with their scrap pile then so be it. If Crisp came in and put up a 825 OPS with above average defense that woud be many wins better than the misfits we are running out there.

    I hope you are not misinterpreting what I am saying. Coco Crisp would be a big improvement for us in LF. But we need to leapfrog the Red Sox and Yankees at a few positions if we ever hope to catch them.

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