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Everything posted by Frobby

  1. Thanks for the info BB. However, having a hypthetical willingness to spend money, and actually spending it on players who agree to come here, are two different things. I will beleive they are making major changes, when those changes actually are made, and not before. As for giving Olson a look for the rotation, I don't mind giving him a look, but he needs another half-season in the minors in my opinion.
  2. DIPS says you are right. 7 major league seasons, all with an ERA under 5.00, says it won't happen.
  3. I projected the O's to have a .760 OPS, compared to the actual .762. Just goes to show that a Ouija board works better than mathematical analysis! As to Toronto, can someone explain to me how they can be 4th in OBP, 2nd in SLG, 2nd in OPS and yet be 8th in runs scored?
  4. That sure sounds like a daunting task. Let me try a modestly optimistic set of pitching assumptions: Bedard 200 IP 3.67 ERA (i.e., stays the same) Benson 190 IP 4.50 ERA (i.e., stays the same) Cabrera 170 IP, 4.50 ERA (similar to 2005 with a few more IP) Loewen 175 IP, 4.25 ERA (his current DIPS ERA is 4.14) Lopez/5th starter 180 IP, 5.00 ERA (similar to 2005) Bullpen/spot starters 555 IP, 4.75 ERA. That would yield 722 earned runs, which would be down about 113 from this year. Factoring in unearned runs that would get you to 120 fewer runs allowed. Add Soriano and one more solid offensive piece and you could be pretty close if the pitching pans out. Gee, I feel a little better now.
  5. I don't think he was saying Benson is an ace, just that Benson has been somewhat unlucky in his W/L record. No matter how you slice it he is at best a no. 3 starter on a contender. Bedard and Benson are not strong enough to carry three below average starters (which is what Cabrera, Loewen and Lopez were this year). Any one of those three, and even all three, could be above average next season, depending on how the chips fall. So I see no real point in going after a no. 3 type who may be no better than what you've got, unless you are going to trade Cabrera for a hitter.
  6. Well, I do think it's a fallacy to think that the relationship between runs and wins always can be described in mathematical terms. But with that said, if the Orioles had scored another 50 runs this year, they still would have been outscored by a margin of more than 50 runs on the season, which means it is highly likely they still would have had a losing record. What this team really needs to do is knock 100 runs off the runs allowed column.
  7. I agree. The Yankees aren't known for discarding players who have been productive for them (unlike, ahem, some teams). He's 90-53 wearing pinstripes. He will remain a Yankee.
  8. I think Soriano is worth about 40-50 extra runs to this team's offense. I get to this figure in a couple of ways. First, just looking at his 162-game averages, Soriano produces 105 Runs + 95 RBI - 35 HR = 165 Runs Produced. Reduce it by 4% (assumes he'll miss 6 games) and you are left with 159 Runs Produced. Meanwhile, the Oriole left fielders, in 156 games so far this year, have produced 57 Runs + 67 RBI - 7 HR = 105 Runs Produced. So there's a 54-run differential there, and that doesn't include Soriano's impact on the rest of the lineup. Second, using the Runs Created formula, Oriole left fielders have created 66 runs this season. Soriano averages about 106 per season (he's at 129.5 and counting this year). That extra 40-50 runs would move the Orioles from 9th to 6th in run production. Probably that's worth 4-5 wins.
  9. The Soriano and Guerrero situations are not comparable. Vlad is an intorvert who has never bothered to learn English, and it was pretty clear he just didn't want to play any place where there wasn't a large Spanish-speaking population. Soriano is an extorverted guy who played in Japan before he ever played in the mjors. He's not likely to rule out Baltimore for cultural reasons.
  10. Well, if you were a latent Tiger fan whose team hasn't made the playoffs in more than a decade, wouldn't you show up for a game with 10 days left in the season and a one-game lead for your team in its division?
  11. "No comprehension of what it costs to run a baseball team." OK Peter, open your books. Let's see what you get from gate attendance, concessions, the MLB deal involving the Nats, from local TV and radio, from revenue sharing, from the national TV contract, from MLB.com, from licensing, and now from MASN.. What B.S. "Some teams charge $45 per ticket." What about the other 11 team in the AL that don't, 9 of which have a better record than we do, and 8 of which beat us head-to-head when we played them?
  12. What a jerk. "Whoever joins that protest has no comprehension of what it costs to run a baseball team." That's not the issue. The issue is that HE has no comprehension of how to RUN a baseball team. Is he threatening to jack up ticket prices? HA! If he thought losing 450,000 in paid attendance this year was bad, wait until next year.
  13. Sounds to me like the protesters who were there did a very good job. Cheered loudly for the team, got up when they said they would, made their point firmly but in an orderly way, and left. No major incidents or inappropriate conduct. I say thanks to them.
  14. In a dark room on the upper floor with the ventian blinds closed....if you get my drift...
  15. So who is in the press box? Any national media types checking this out? What's the overall reaction in the press box? I think it's pretty dramatic that the "witching hour" came right in the middle of a big rally. I've gotta say, I probably would have walked out and then snuck into another section to keep watching....
  16. There is only one person who has to take it seriously. I could care less what some flunky in the warehouse thinks.
  17. Let me try to explain why I am in favor of this protest. First, let me say that, as a DC-area resident, I have never heard or seen Nestor Aparcio. I don't know the first thing about him except what I read on here. I am going to assume that he is an egotistical, self-centered, publicity-seeking jerk who is doing htis for his own self-promoting reasons. With that said, I don't care. The fans need to send Peter Angelos a message that business as usual won't be tolerated. Aparently, the fact that attendance has been dwindling year after year hasn't sent him that message. So maybe some public humiliation of him will. Will it work? I don't know. But I don't see how it can possibly hurt. When the O's are in a bidding war over some free agent and a deal reaches his desk, won't he be more inclined to say yes, knowing that the fans won't put up with another winter of minor tinkering? And I don't think the protest will demoralize the team. The fans want the team to get better, and the protest shows that. I'm looking forward to watching the news tonight.
  18. It will be interesting to see if this gets prominent mention on the early edition of Sports Center. It's not like there is much else for them to report at that time of day.
  19. If you ask me, the players should love this. It shows that the fans care about their team, and don't like the way it has been run.
  20. If we went and got Crisp and then used the other $60 mm to get some other top players, I'd be all for it. But if we go get Crisp and do nothing else of significance, well, I'd rather have Soriano, thank you. By the way, we wll have to trade somethign half decent to get Crisp, I expect. He doesn't come free. All I can say about Soriano is that his teammates are 100% behind him from everything I've seen and read. The fans certainly wanted to see 40/40, and I bet his teammates did, too.
  21. I hope you are not misinterpreting what I am saying. Coco Crisp would be a big improvement for us in LF. But we need to leapfrog the Red Sox and Yankees at a few positions if we ever hope to catch them.
  22. My question is, is Crisp better than Patterson? I think he might be.
  23. I think you are missing my point. I'm not saying Crisp isn't a good young player. But if the Red Sox want to discard him to "upgrade," how do we catch them by taking Crisp while they go get someone even better?
  24. A defensive outfield of Markakis, Patterson and Crisp woule be pretty fun to watch. Crisp also hits righties and lefties equally well, and so he could play CF against lefties sometimes. Still, what does it say when we are discussing getting players from the Red Sox's reject pile? Are we ever going to catch them that way? Maybe we are the ones who should be going after Andruw Jones.
  25. I will even go a step further. Oriole fans are not abandoning the team just because they have been losing. They are abandoning the team because they perceive that ownership is not making a genuine effort to win.
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