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Posts posted by Frobby

  1. Isn't win share a counting stat?

    Yes, but so what? 9.2 to 2.9 is a huge differential, and any impact cause by Tejada playing 20-30 fewer games is minimal in relation to that gap.

    I hope you understand I'm not saying the stats I quoted are more valid than the ones quoted by Baltimoron. I'm just expressing my frustration that, after all these years, the most sophisiticated attempts to measure overall defensive contributions still are not in agreement with each other. You can pretty much make any argument you want depending on the stat you choose.

  2. ZOMG my head is going to asplode.

    Just because someone isn't a great hitter doesn't mean they are a good fielder.

    Tejada was a better defensive shortstop than Orlando Cabrera last year and he *is* a better defensive SS.

    Miggy simply makes more plays than OCab and most other SS, but all we can remeber are the mistakes he makes.

    Miggy +8 to Ocab's -9

    Tejada +7, Cabrera -1

    + 4.8 for Miggy, -6.5 for Orlando

    Just goes to show you can find statistical evidence for any defensive proposition you want to make.

    Baseball Prospectus: OCab 108/110, Miggy 88/87

    Win Shares: OCab 9.2, Miggy 2.9

    Fldg. %: OCab .983, Miggy .971

    What is a fan to think?

  3. Ok, I'll buy that. But remember, Gathright is a fringe major league player. And he pretty much defines the upper limit of how good someone can be with absolutely no power. On a good team he'd be lucky to be a 5th OF/pinch runner.

    Yeah, he's a bench player at best, but that's OK.

  4. I don't think Bonds will face jail time, or much of it, unless Anderson really sold him out, and threw him under the bus.

    He will definitely face jail time if he is convicted or pleads guilty. These are felony charges, and under federal sentencing guidelines there will be a minimum amount of time he has to spend in jail.

  5. I'm thinking Anderson refused to speak up against Bonds until after he broke Hank Aaron's record or something like that. And now that its the offseason and the record is broken, he decided hes been sitting in jail long enough for his friend. Just a theory...

    You are misinterpreting the reason for Anderson's release. He was in jail for civil contempt, until such time as he would agree to testify before the grand jury. But when an indictment is issued, the job of the grand jury is at an end. There is no longer a pending grand jury proceeding in which he can give tesitmony, and therefore the judge has no basis to keep him in jail.

  6. Were the congressional hearings really under oath? I can't remember.

    Yes. However, go back and read the Congressional report, and you'll see the Committee found there was inadequate evidence to conclude that Raffy had committed perjury when he testified before them. Remember his positive drug test came months after he testified, so you could never prove that he had ever taken steroids prior to his tesimony. That is why the Committee did not refer Raffy to the Justice Dept.

  7. I doubt that a young team that loses 100 games will drawn better. The guys on the board may go to more games but overall people support a winner.

    Not a chance it draws better. Especially this year when a lot of fans who live equidistant or closer to DC will want to go see their new stadium.

  8. The system is a lot deeper than I was thinking it was BUT many of these guys needs to prove it at higher levels before we get too excited.

    Agreed. Next year is HUGE in terms of assessing where we are. Bowie and Frederick should be fascinating.

    Of course, I'm hoping we can add a few more names to our list before Feb. 15.

  9. This year's top prospects list is much deeper than last year's, which was deeper than the year before's. We are through 13 and I think we can still go at least 5 deep (Hoey, McCrory, Bascom, Bergeson, Moore) before we go from prospects to suspects. I might throw Berken in there, too.

    Hoey is a pretty good illustration of how far the organization has come. Last year he was, I think, 8th on the list, on the strength of a season spent mostly in the lower minors. This year he comes back, utterly dominates at Bowie and Norfolk, and can't even crack the top 14. Now that is a sign of serious progress.

    A lot of good stuff has happened since June. At that point, Reimold and Rowell were nursing their oblique injuries, Snyder wasn't hitting, Spoone was doing just OK, and we hadn't been able to sign Wieters and Arrieta. I was getting pretty demoralized. Things look a lot better five months later.

  10. Reimold finsihes the AFL regualr season by leading the league in HR (6) and RBI (23). His overall line of .245/.331/.452 is still a bit disappointing. though not a complete disaster. FWIW, Reimold also played in the AFL last year, to the tune of .284/.406/.398, 1 HR, 9 RBI. He showed a lot more power this campaign but got on base less often.

  11. Lowell has said he doesn't want to play 1st so my guess is they are only doing this to make the Sox pay more for him.

    Good! Anything that makes either the Yankees or the Red Sox spend more money just to retain the same players they already have is a good thing for us.

  12. I'd be shocked if we didn't pick up a few guys in the Rule 5 draft and give them a hard look. For one thing, I'd bet almost anything there are some shortstops out there who are superior to Fahey and Hernandez. Your point about relievers is a good one, too.

  13. I wouldn't run the risk of chasing the guy off with another lowball opening offer.

    Put your best offer on the table right away (whatever that may be), and let him and his people know that, hey, we're cutting right to the chase here, and there's very little wiggle room in these aggressive numbers.

    If he's interested, hopefully a deal comes together quickly. If not, then you've got your answer without a lot of wasted time and energy.

    Do you really think 4/$45 mm is a lowball offer? You'll have to explain why. Jeremy Bonderman got 4/$38 mm last year, while Aaron Harang got 4/$36.5 mm. Both those guys were two years away from free agency. More recently, Mark Buehrle, who would have been a free agent at the end of the year, got 4/$56 mm.

    Putting aside the "lowball" characterization, your idea of starting closer to the bottom line is not a bad one.

  14. Yeah but the offer will have to be more than Schmidts.

    Schmidt's deal is 3/$47 mm. I would expect any Bedard deal covering the years after 2009 will have to pay more than $15.7 mm per year for the FA-eligible years. At the same time, Bedard isn't going to make $15 mm a year, or close to it, for the next 2 seasons.

    I would consider something like:

    2008: $7 mm

    2009: $10 mm

    2010: $15.5 mm

    2011: $17 mm

    2012 $18.5 mm

    Total - 5/$68 mm

    If Bedard wants a lot more than that, I think he's being unreasonable.

  15. I'm always interested in the information our insiders get from their sources. Surely the sources know that our insiders are posting this stuff, right? And clearly they must think the information they give isn't going to hurt the team or agency they work for, or jeopardize their job. In fact, they must think it is in their interest for the information to be out there, otherwise, why discuss it, even with a close friend?

  16. I've also been told AM is pissed about Huff and he'll also be traded.

    That's a silly reason to trade Huff -- though we should be looking to trade him anyway as part of the overall plan. I hope we don't just give him away because of a few cavalier remarks on a radio show.

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