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Posts posted by Frobby

  1. As much as these comments irk me, I'm not going to turn on Mora. He did do whatever the team wanted him to do for 4-5 years. He was one of the most underpaid players in the league. He did get involved and help solve the Tejada problem two years ago. He is active in the community. He was the only Oriole to show up at Elrod Hendricks' funeral. He did ask for a no trade clause because he really likes it in Baltimore. There are many positives in his history with the Orioles.

    And by the way, he was not grossly overpaid last year. Two more years like that one at $8 mm a year I would gladly live with. The bigger problem is that he is likely to decline from here.

    None of that excuses Melvin's remarks, or his failure to recognize that he has his own shortcomings. I'm glad he's willing to consider waiving his NTC because that is in the team's long term interests. But I'm not going to declare him a bum.

  2. You can find a defensive stat to corroborate just about anything (well, except Jeter being a great shortstop), but I watched the Mets for most of this year and Beltran hurt the Mets at least as much as he helped.

    Yes, I can find "a" defensive stat to corroborate just about anything, but in Betran's case:

    Fielding Bible ranks him 1st in MLB

    Bill James Win Shares ranks him 4th in MLB

    Zone rating ranks him 5th in MLB

    Range factor ranks him 8th in MLB

    That is pretty unanimous statistical evidence that the guy is an upper echelon defensive CF.

  3. Wait... I posted before looking through the NL... David Wright?! Carlos Beltran?! Are you kidding me?! Who did the Mets pay off? That's just ridiculous. David Freaking Wright?! A Gold Glove?! :rolleyes:

    Nothing wrong with Beltran, who according to the Fielding Bible was the top CF this year. http://www.billjamesonline.net/fieldingbible/charts/leaders2-07.gif Wright ranked 6th among all MLB 3B so he's not an awful choice either. Polanco ranked 8th at 2B.

  4. This is what I think as well. The opening bid for ARod was 10/$350mil. to the Yankees. Boras has put himself on the line to get at least that much and he will take as long as he can to get as close to that as possible.

    Boras has shown tremendous instincts for how much the market will bear over the years, but this time I think he may have misjudged things. Despite the monster year he just had, A-Rod at age 33-40 simply isn't as valuable as A-Rod at ages 26-32. He's now 4 years removed from playing SS and he is less valuable as a 3B than as a SS. And time has shown that his presence on a team doesn't guarantee success or even major improvement. I'm sure some team will pony up 8 years, $180 mm but I'm not sure he'll see much more than that, in which case he might have been better off playing out his old contract and then signing a 5-6 year deal. Only time will tell.

  5. A-Rod doesn't have to be signed, sealed and delivered for teams to turn their attention to Tejada. Once some opening bids for A-Rod become known, several teams will conclude the price is already too rich for their blood, and thenthey'll be ready to talk about Tejada. If anything, other teams are probably telling the O's they want to see what happens with A-Rod as a ploy to get the Orioles to lower their asking price to move him quickly.

  6. Having corporate experience in this, when companies are selling a business, they want to make it as profitable as possible b/c the purchase price is generally based off some sort of multiple of EBITA or Op Income. Also, the potential acquirer might not look favorably upon certain long term, material (significant) financial commitments.

    Believe it or not, some owners probably care about the annual earnings/net cash flow stream as well as the long term franchise appreciation.

    I've never been a part of selling a baseball team though. I would imagine many of these finance principles would still apply, no matter what the asset is for sale. Everything is a negotiation though, so who really knows.

    I think baseball is a little different from many businesses, in that most businesses cannot slash expenses as quickly as it can be done in baseball. Its not like trading for Tejada locks the team into $13 mm a year for time immemorial. And I suspect that winning a pennant would have a pretty positive impact on the revenue side.

  7. You don't see a problem with having $103M tied up in 8 players a year from now, and 17 holes unfilled, when $103M is over the amount your bosses have given you to work with in any of the years you've been on the job?

    Check out this article: MLB just announced it will exceed $6 billion in revenues this year, double what it was in 2000 and 50% more than 2004. http://money.cnn.com/2007/10/25/commentary/sportsbiz/ In that context, the fact that payrolls were lower in previous years is not so relevant. Payroll is bound to go up.

  8. Aren't the Cubs undergoing a ownership change? Wouldn't that make it hard to commit to adding a $13M salary?

    I don't think it affects the sales value of the Cubs much at all, especially in comparison with the other deals the Cubs have inked in the last 12 months, knowing the team was on the block.

  9. Well if the Cubs are getting Tejada, then they're going to need some salary relief.

    I've said this in the past and people just blow it off, or repeat the, "but Tejada's a bargain in this market" mantra.

    Here's the deal. In 2007, the Cubs' payroll was right in the $100M neighborhood. Without any changes to the roster, and bringing back Wood for $4M, the 2008 payroll is $105M. Adding Tejada pushes that to $118M.

    I've got no clue whether management would approve that sort of increase in payroll, but it sure seems unlikely in light of the change in ownership.

    But here's the kicker. As of right now, the Cubs have 7 players under contract for the 2009 season. For $90M total. Add Tejada, and now they're already above this past year's payroll, but with only 8 roster spots filled! 17 still to go!

    Someone please explain how that has any possibility of being manageable, without a major subtraction or two to offset the Tejada money.

    I don't know too much about the Cubs' economics, but it would seem to me that they should be able to afford to have one of the highest payrolls in baseball. Baseball's revenues were enormous this year and I think you'll be seeing payrolls go up all around the league.

  10. Well this really got to me from ROCH:

    I feel as if we will see at least one trade by the end of this week and a complete dismantling by December 7th.

    Maybe the latest from Roch will put a damper on those notions:

    Though Orioles officials will be busy this week, it would be a major surprise if they pulled off a trade. It’s just not expected to happen this soon. But stay tuned. Maybe someone will overwhelm them.


  11. Im not a believer that Corey Patterson is much more than a very fast, very streaky, and often very dissapointing baseball player.

    But the man can go get it.

    Next to Paul Blair(and maybe Al Bumbry)he is the best fielding CF this franchise has ever had.

    Andruw Jones hasnt been a top shelf fielder for at least two seasons. For Patterson to not even get a vote for his defense,..is indefensible.

    BTW is Corey gone? Did we pick up his option?It seems to me we dont have much of a choice unless we go after Jones(which, reading Macphails comments doesnt seem likely).And Luis Matos is out of the question!!!!!

    Corey did not have an option. He's a free agent but we could still sign him, though I doubt we will. He made a lot of great plays in CF, but overall he did not play as well in the field in 2007 as he did in 2006. He doesn't come in on balls that well, he seems to freeze for a split second before realizing that the ball has not been hit hard.

  12. The insiders have indicated a strong possibility of Miggy being dealt this week, if I remember correctly. So, Roch's mention seems right in line with this.

    Well, it's certainly OK with me if the trades start happening this week. I'm not holding my breath, though. MacPhail strikes me as a patient guy who will want to be sure he has the best deal he can get before pulling the trigger.

  13. Reading what MacPhail said:

    At the GM meetings, you get an opportunity to sit down face-to-face with teams and explore different approaches they may take and how they think that it may impact you. Between the GM meetings and conclusion of the winter meetings, I hope to see the consummation of several trades.

    This leads me to think it isn't likely that any deals will be consummated by the Orioles at these meetiings, there will just be preliminary discussions.

  14. I must say that I agree with this...for now.

    I feel better with him at the helm than anyone since Gillick.

    Of course, he has to live up to it as well.

    I also liked Duquette and Mazilli and we saw how that worked out.

    This is how I feel. I like what I hear, but at this point it's all about what he does.

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