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Posts posted by Frobby

  1. Just throwing this out there as he doesn't look as good to me when you compare him against some of the higher ceilling (and younger) pitchers in this system. Beato, Hernandez, Spoone, Arrieta, Liz all seem to have much higher ceilings in my opinion due to their ages and reported "stuff". Plus, it seems as if the OH crew tends to reward this much more than actual minor league results. Yes, Olson has a proven track record in the minor leagues and he has a good make-up. But, the fact is he did not look good in his major league appearences this year (I know its a small sample size) and as he is getting older (24 going into next season), his ceiling is rapidly becoming much lower. Is his celing now a 4th or 5th starter? I think this system is much better than we give it credit for (at least when it comes to pitching). And to have Olson in the Top 10 would be an eye opener to me. I am ready for my lashings now.....

    It is a fair question, and in part it depends on how much you are weighing a player's ceiling vs. how much you are weighing the likelihood that they will be at least a serviceable major league player. If you look at Olson's track record, (1) he has succeeded at every level, and (2) it has taken him a month or two to adjust every time he has been moved up a level. I have very little doubt that he is going to be good enough to hold down a spot in our rotation, and in that case, he has to be in the top 10, even if he'll never have the talent of a Bedard or a Loewen.

  2. Just a note SG, I said that Arrietta would be included on the prospect list, not neccesarily in the top ten. Lots of unknown there for my blood and some mixed reports as well.

    Good to know, and since the list presumably didn't take into account the AFL season, I'm assuming we won't see Arrieta in the top 10. However, based on what he has done in the AFL, including reports from scouts there, I certainly think he's a top 10 talent.

    Personally, I'd prefer it if OH waited until December to issue its annual top 10 list so that perfomance in the AFL and Hawaiian league could be taken into account. Two years ago OH ranked Loewen 10th, but by the end of the AFL season it was pretty clear he was a top 5 guy. My guess is that Snyder will be a little lower on this year's list than he would have been ranked based on his performance in Hawaii thus far. I know OH isn't just looking at 4-6 weeks of statistics when it does its rankings, but these fall leagues often reveal how a player will do when he moves up a level, and in cases like Wieters and Arrietta, it's really the first chance to see how they stack up against professional comeptition.

  3. I don't see how either Olson or Reimold could be this low on the list. All Olson has done is succeed at every level of the minors, including AAA, and if his brief performance in Baltimore was kind of disappointing its lcear he has a future there. Reimold played very well when he wasn't injured so I don't see how he could drop significantly from last year's list.

    To me it could be anyone of the other three. I don't see any of them going any higher than no. 8. I will guess Bascom but won't be surprised if I'm wrong.

  4. I believe the Sun said(it may have been Peace but i think it was the Sun) that we offered him a 4 year deal for just under 20 million.

    I do not remember reading that, but it's certainly possible.

    Edit -- you are correct, the Sun said this:

    Future considerations

    The Orioles made an attempt to sign Bedard to a long-term extension last year, but it went nowhere. According to team sources, they offered Bedard a four-year deal at a little less than $5 million per season. Bedard and his agent, Mark Pieper, predictably said no thanks.

    One team source said the club wanted to see whether Bedard, who had Tommy John surgery earlier in his career, could stay healthy over the course of another full season before they made a more lucrative offer. Ultimately, the Orioles avoided arbitration with the pitcher, agreeing to a $3.4 million deal after both sides entered arbitration figures that were $1.3 million apart.

    Bedard declined to comment on past negotiations with the club, including whether he felt slighted by the contract offer. Asked what his reaction would be if he is approached this offseason with a more lucrative deal, Bedard said, "If it makes sense ... we'll have to have talks and see what happens."

    But essentially, the ball is in the Orioles' court.

    "There is no reason to make a statement that he wouldn't consider a multi-year deal. That's just silly," Pieper said. "But as a general statement, it's more difficult to sign players to multi-year deals the closer that they get to free agency."

    Bedard said he enjoys being an Oriole. "I like it here," he said. "Right now, this is the most fun and best team that I've played on. Everyone gets along. Even when we lose, we still have fun."

    Bedard said several factors will determine whether he signs long term, including the success of the team. He is well aware that most of the team's nucleus is signed only through the 2009 season, when he's eligible for free agency.

    "It's never fun playing for a losing team," he said.

    The Orioles should get a better feel for Bedard's price tag in the coming months. Chicago Cubs ace Carlos Zambrano is eligible for free agency after this season. He already reportedly turned down a five-year, $80 million offer from the Cubs. Sabathia and reigning AL Cy Young Award winner Johan Santana of the Minnesota Twins are eligible after next season, while Mark Buehrle just signed a four-year, $56 million deal with the Chicago White Sox.

    Orioles second baseman Brian Roberts knows a little about what Bedard is going through. The Orioles wanted to sign him to a longer-term deal this past offseason, but Roberts decided to extend by just one year because he wanted to see the direction of the franchise. While Roberts and Bedard have the same agent, Roberts said it wasn't his place to weigh in on Bedard's decision.

    "That's his contract. That's his choice," he said. "He's here for the next two years. He's on the same time frame I am. But do I think he deserves [an extension]? Do I think they should do it? Yeah, certainly. You're talking about one of the best in the game.",0,2793156,full.story+bedard+long+term+contract&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=8&gl=us

  5. What was so bad about it?

    They certainly offered him a fair extension.

    Not my recollection at all. I recall hearing long ago (through Peace21 and/or other insiders and/or the press) that Bedard's agent proposed a long-term deal last winter and the Oriole front office simply never responded to it one way or the other, and never made a counteroffer. Bedard was insulted that the FO didn't even have the courtesy to respond and decided that in the future he wasn't going to listen to a long-term deal from the FO unless it was an offer he couldn't possibly refuse.

    If that's what happned, it's pretty bad if you ask me, but since it didn't happen on MacPhail's watch you'd hope Bedard wouldn't hold it against him.

  6. I will continue to use insane glut, because even if half of them pan out to be major leaguers, that is still a bullpen, or a rotation. That is why it is an insane glut. Where in the past we only had Matt Riley and Kurt Ainsworth to hang our hats on, we now are arguing whether "X" is better than "V", "W", "Y", and "Z". Also don't forget about "T" who had a bad year, but is better than most in the league playing against competition 3 years older. That is what makes it a "glut".

    Meanwhile we are giving starts to Victor Santos, Victor Zambrano, Kurt Birkins, Jon Leicester and Brian Burres. We are using 12 starters and 23 pitchers in a single season because almost nobody is doing the job at the big league level. I really like the guys who will be at Bowie and Frederick this year, but to me there is no "insane glut" until we have age-appropriate pitchers dominating at AAA and can't find room for them in the majors.

  7. If by no major league results, you mean the injuries to Loewen and Penn, and a poor first shot by Olson and Hoey based off of very small sample sizes, than I guess you're correct. Let's completely forget how the Tigers, Twins, A's, Yankees (back in the mid 90s), and Florida Marlins became contenders. It's a growing process for all of these young guys, and we, as fans, will soon be reaping the rewards for being so freaking patient for these guys to come around.

    You misinterpreted my post. I'm not skeptical that there is a lot of pitching talent in the organization. I am just VERY, VERY impatient with waiting. We've been waiting 5 years since drafting Loewen. We've been waiting 3-4 years on Penn. We've been waiting 4 years on Daniel Cabrera. We've seen numerous guys who were thought to have top-to-middle of the rotation stuff fall by the wayside, such as Matt Riley, Kurt Ainsworth and others. We've seen Julio and Parrish fizzle and Ray get hurt.

    So yeah, I will continue to be patient, but don't talk to me about the "insane" "glut" of pitching talent in this organization, until I see the results on the field.

  8. With deference to Peace21, whose source I believe is solid, I think he's probably off base as to what Bedard expects to make in free agency, and what it would take to keep him in Baltimore. However, if he truly doesn't like it here, he may want an unreasonable amount to stay.

    If you read this, Peace21, please elaborate on your statement that Bedard doesn't like it here (if you can). It could mean a number of different things:

    1. He doesn't like playing for a losing team.

    2. He doesn't like playing in the city of Baltimore.

    3. He affirmatively wants to go play for Toronto.

    4. He was offended by the way he was treated last winter.

    Now, I'm pretty sure reason # 4 is true, because you an others reported it before. That's the easiest one to cure, because MacPhail wasn't on the scene, and getting a good offer now tends to unruffle those kinds of feathers. If reason # 1 is the real reason, then the team may just have to wait until it is in a better position ot convince Bedard that it si an imprving team he should want to remain with. If # 2 or 3 is the reason, there's nothing we can do.

  9. I cant really leak that kind of info yet.

    But what I can tell you is, Bedard doesnt really like it here in Baltimore. We could all guess that. But the O's are the ones that will have to beg here. If they really want to bring Bedard back they have to build a winner, and offer him something to what Zito got or even more. Bedard if and when he makes it to FA, he will become the highest paid starter in the league.

    Zito, when he signed, had won 102 major league games. He had pitched 200+ innings for 6 seasons in a row -- something Bedard has yet to do even once. And he was a free agent, with zero risk of suffering an injury before reaching free agency.

    IF Bedard has two fully healthy seasons where he pitches as effectively as he did in 2007, THEN he might be in position to earn a Zito-like deal. However, he'll be two years older than Zito was when he signed his deal.

    Nobody in their right mind would pay Bedard Zito money right now. And I'm sure Bedard's agents know this.

  10. For the FA years sure, but there is a 0% chance he gets that type of money over the next two years. He won't be expecting to get it either, unless he is hellbent on leaving town. His agents will be intelligent enough to know that nobody gets FA year money during the arb years of a contract extension. It has never happened in MLB history, and Bedard certainly won't be the first.

    Agreed. And Zito had a very long track record of durability and success that Bedard does not have. The closest comps to Bedard, IMO, are Jeremy Bonderman and Aaraon Harang. Both were two years from free agency last winter. Harang signed for 4/$36.5 with a team option for $12.75 mm in the 5th year. Bonderman signed for 4/$38 mm. I think Bedard will command more, because the market has gotten even stronger and he had such a dominant season. At the same time, Bonderman and Harang had shown more durability than Bedard has, and Bonderman was considerably younger.



  11. Peace do you have any idea on what type of contract Bedard is looking at? would 4 years/45 million be in the range?

    Oh, come on, if Peace has ties to Bedard's agent he's sure not going to pass out this kind of information even if he knows it (which I doubt).

    I think Bedard could command more than 4/$45 mm, but that certainly should be enough of an offer to lead to serious discussions, unless Bedard is hell-bent on getting out of town.

  12. Lots of good comments here that show why and why not Rowell should be in Frederick next year. My gut says he could probably use another half a season at Delmavra, but my heart says challenge him at Frederick. The only concern I have is that Rowell by all reports is extremely confident, so if he struggles at Frederick would that hurt his confidence for the future?

    I'm worried over his K:BB ratio last year as well as his terrible mark against lefties. There's also nothing wrong with him spending half a season at Delmarva at the age of 19. It's not like the O's would be putting him behind by giving him the rest of his at bats at Delmarva (remember he lost at bats with the oblique injury).

    It's a close call, which is why I asked the question. I agree that the K/BB ratio (particularly the K's) and his struggles vs. LHP are cause for concern. At the same time, his overall numbers were pretty solid, and I don't think the jump to Frederick is that big a jump.

  13. I would be very surprised if that were the case. Not to mention that Tony implied in an earlier post that Arrieta's ranking in this list is hurt by his lack of professional experience. To me that means he (Arrieta) is not in the Top 10. I'm still confident Snyder will be in the 7-8 range here until someone like Scott or Tony says otherwise.

    This may be another case (like Loewen 2 years ago) where OH's rankings might have been different if they had waited until the fall league results were in. Both Snyder and Arrieta are proving to me they belong in the Top 10, but that wasn't clear when the regular minor league season ended.

    I'm going with McCrory at no. 9.

  14. His age and projectionability is what moved moved him into the top ten. All things considered, we thought he had a solid season for his age in the NY-Penn league. The improvement in his command was the next step in his maturation and we're hoping for more strikeouts and longer outings next year at Delmarva.

    There are pitchers with better chances of pitching in the majors behind him on our list, but he has a much higher ceiling. Next year should be a big year for him since it will be his first full season. Remember, Spoone was putting up an 8-somehting ERA at Bluefield at 19-years of age so you have to sometimes wait a few years for these projectionable guys to either break out or fizzle out.

    I'm giving OH some kudos for ranking Britton as high as they did last year (12th).

    2006 Team: Bluefield (R+)

    Projected Role: Too Early

    Notes - Young and raw are two things that describe this left-hander, but you can also add in the fact his fastball has been known to creep into the mid-90s. Didn't impress in his first look through Bluefield but mostly because he needs to refine his secondary pitches. Pitches comfortably in the 88-91 range right now but the feeling is there's more velocity in that arm. He's a project pick but one that has a huge upside if things fall in place. Think of him as the pitching version of Keiron Pope.

    To me he's already proven a much more solid selection than Pope.

  15. From the long Wieters thread:

    I wouldn't say Rowell did well at Delmarva. He didn't do badly, but he wasn't above average or anything, either. He's still very, very young. Starting him at Delmarva is a low risk way of getting him back to the .850-.950 OPS that he put up in Rookie ball and Aberdeen, rather than the .750 or so he put up at Delmarva last year. I think he'll move up to Frederick quickly, but I think starting him at Delmarva is the right move, and the way the O's will go with him as well.

    Wonder who agrees/disagrees here. There wasn't a lot of difference between the numbers put up by Snyder and Rowell:

    Snyder .283/.354/.422

    Rowell .273/.335/.426

    I'm inclined to promote Rowell to Frederick. FYI, Delmarva had a team OPS of .710 and the league had a median OPS around .740. In that context, Rowell's .761 looks pretty good.

  16. Heck, start Snyder at Bowie next year as well if this continues. Maybe it will push Rowell even harder to catch up to these guys if he starts in Frederick.

    I would be conservative and start Snyder at Frederick. He can move to Bowie midseason if he puts up these kind of numbers at Frederick for a while and shows a little better plate discipline.

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