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Posts posted by Frobby

  1. The Yankees are in a bad position, because there isn't a lot available in free agency. They can re-sign all these old guys to 2-3 year deals, and watch them slowly (or perhaps quickly) decline, or they can let them go and replace them with players who aren't as good right now. And with ARod, they either lose a guy whose production cannot be replaced, or they simply have to pay him more money than they were already paying him to get similar or lesser production (considering the year he had, he pretty much has nowhere to go but down). They have some upside with their young pitchers, but there is a lot more downside than upside for this team in the near term.

  2. This ain't about Moose or the O's. This is about Yankees. More specifically, it's about "The Sin of Derek Christ". Ever since he refused to move over for the best SS in the history of the game, they haven't played a single WS game. It's Jeter's selfish ego-curse, not Moose's and not ARod's. I hope the MFY's re-sign ARod... because as long as the MFY's insist on playing the second-best SS on their team at SS, and making the best one in all of baseball history play somewhere else, the Baseball Gods aren't letting them get *near* a World Series game. So far, we're at 4 years and counting...

    But don't you know that Derek has won the Gold Glove the last three years? Never mind all those pesky statistics showing that he has about as much range as my grandmother out there.

  3. If the Yankees trade him with his current contract, doesn't the subsidy tag along? (Not saying that they would, but still...)

    There's $21 million of Ranger money involved. That's pocket change to nobody. Even if ARod decides he's going somewhere else (Team-X), wouldn't it make sense for the MFY's and Team-X to look at some kind of trade-extension deal that benefits both of them at the expense of the Rangers? (Business is business...)

    Good point.

  4. Absolutely, rejoice away. I understand that. My point is that all of the Yankee coverage on here is a bit ironic considering that so many complain about the amount of coverage the Yankees get...Just ironic.

    You are right. Now let me get back to gloating! :D

  5. If he signs an extension before he opts out, all he is doing is signing a new contract that goes in effect after his old one expires after 2010.

    Exactly. It is easy for the Yankees to structure this in such a way that his 2008-10 contract remains in effect.

  6. Nobody has responded to Frobby's original point. The Red Sox enjoyed amazing health this year. Last year, they had terrible injury problems. They finished 3rd last year and won the division this year. If anyone thinks that is a coincidence, than you just aren't paying attention.

    Before anyone goes there, they had 1 positional player under the age of 27 (2once Ellsbury came up) and 10 over the age of 30. Preparation and depth are necessary without a doubt, but the teams that win do so because they have skill, depth, AND health. Teams rarely win when they have injuries.

    The Orioles weren't particularly talented this year (our best case was likely around 85 or 86 wins), but if you could magically supplant the injuries the Orioles suffered on the Red Sox, Indians, etc...., none of those teams would have come close to making the play-offs.

    You have made my point better than I did. And you are right that, just as they have had very good luck with injuries this year, they had very poor luck with them last year. Last year they had only 5 regulars who played in 130 games; this year it's 9. Last year their Opening Day rotation made 108 starts; this year it's 140. I think it's pretty fair to say that the Red Sox's luck with injuries in 2006 was about the same as the Orioles' luck in 2007. Of course, they still won 86 games in an unlucky year; we won 69. Logic dictates that, even if the O's had good luck with injuries in 2007, we still probably would have fallen short of .500.

  7. I'm just perusing the Red Sox team stats, and marvelling at how much went right for them.

    Of their 9 regulars, all 9 played in 130+ games. As best as I can tell, Wily Mo Pena and Doug Mirabelli were the only two Red Sox hitters to go on the DL all year. Manny Ramirez missed some time late in the year, but never went on the DL.

    Among the starting pitchers, the Opening Day rotation made 140 starts. Only Schilling missed significant time due to injury. Tavarez eventually was pulled from the rotation.

    In the bullpen, only Brendan Donnelly and Joel Piniero suffered injuries.

    All in all, the Red Sox have a great team, but they also have been very fortunate in 2007.

  8. Simple economics dictate that ARod will remain a Yankee. For the next three years, ARod makes $24 mm/year, with the Rangers paying more than $21 mm of the $72 mm he will make. There is only one team who can have that subsidy: the Yankees. If ARod voids his deal, that $21 mm disappears. So let's say the Yankees offer ARod an extension for 5 years at $27 mm per. To ARod, effectively that is 8 years, $207 mm, and that is what another team would have to outbid. But to the Yankees, it only costs them 8 years, $186 mm because of the Rangers' subsidy. I just don't see how anyone can outbid the Yankees, or even come close, under the circumstances. It's just a matter or whether he wants out of NY so badly that he'll take a big pay cut to get out. That doesn't sound like ARod to me.

  9. Pretty tough to properly evaluate Duquette, especially after just one year.

    Wasn't it two years? I thought he joined in the Fall of 2005, shortly after Flanny was promoted.

    I think he has a mixed record. Some moves were OK last winter, but I have trouble with (1) Britton for Wright, (2) Baez 3/$19 mm, (3) Payton 2/$9.5 mm, and (4) Bako.

  10. I'm rooting for the Tribe to go all the way.

    By the way, Kenny Lofton is one of the most underrated players ever, IMO. 40 years old and winning has followed him wherever he goes.

  11. Exactly, and Markakis is still somewhat too aggressive in the batter's box. I think he could be a superstar given the right hitting coach.

    You have GOT to be joking. Do you realize that Markakis struck out looking 43 times? Do you realize that when he put the first pitch in play he hit .393/.388/.750? The last thing Nick is is too aggressive.

  12. I agree that this is the way they are going, but I disagree about the motives. Its not because Tejada is not fit to play SS. It is because they want an elite defensive SS, which Miggi clearly is not. He's still around average, everybody saying he's one of the worst in the league are certifiably insane.

    There is nothing wrong with wanting someone who is an excellent defender at SS, even over somebody who isn't as good but is a better hitter. What there is something wrong with, is getting someone who is an excellent defender without any regard for their offense. If a guy is putting up a .580 OPS, he's killing your team, even if he's unanimously winning the Gold Glove. Now, some teams can overcome a putrid offensive player like that because they otherwise are a very good offensive team. I don't think anybody is confusing the Orioles as an "otherwise very good offensive team".

    Go get your defense-first SS, I'm fine with that, but don't argue that Tejada is not capable of playing SS anymore, because its 100% wrong.

    I think there is one more element at work here, and that is the feeling that Tejada no longer wants to be here, and especially not if he's going to be moved from SS. I am a huge Miggy supporter, and I don't blame the team's performance over the last 4 years on him. But I do think the time has come for both sides to move on.

  13. Fielding percentage (unless there is an extremely large variation) is one of the least relevant statistics, ZR/RZR and even UZR have serious flaws. Seventh in OOZ isn't particularly impresssive and RZR/OOZ doesn't measure more detailed analysis like how hard the ball was hit/angle, flyballs, ball handling/DPs etc. Quite frankly I've seen Tejada take numerous balls OOZ because he was too slow to cut the ball off at a shorter angle. The data I've provided you is comprehensive and breaks down each play on an individual basis (except for RF9) and is far more relevant than what you are citing IMO.

    You can ignore it, but pretty much every baseball analyst I've listened to this past year agrees with me and not with you. From what I gather they are citing scouting reports in addition to their own experience.

    I've watched just about every game this year and my eyes tell me a different story than yours and IMO the more comprehensive analysis I've provided backs me up.

    Care to take me up on that bet or not?

    Reading this post makes me think that fielding statistics are kind of like religion -- you can believe whichever one you want and nobody can really prove you wrong. Earlier in this thread, you made a post that discounted ZR and appeared to endorse RZR, OOZ and UZR. http://www.orioleshangout.com/forums/showpost.php?p=1062213&postcount=54 Now that those stats don't really support the position you want to take, you've moved on to another set of statistics that does, and also have fallen back on RF which most would agree is a very flawed statistic.

    FWIW, I happen to agree with your overall analysis of Tejada -- weak to his left, pretty good to his right, not so good on DP's. The real question is: is he so bad, so far below average, that the team would be better off with a better-fielding shortstop who doesn't hit as well? Would we give away more hits at the plate than we would take away in the field if we made a switch? And its going to be pretty hard to find a statistical analysis that doesn't lead to the conclusion that Tejada will contribute more on net than most slick fielding, no-hit SS's.

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