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Posts posted by Frobby

  1. It's not a terrible comparison, not in terms of overall upside of the player, but just generally what you can extrapolate from a couple of good months when a player was at his best. Obviously nobody would argue that Guthrie is likely to be as good a player as Markakis over the long haul.

  2. When did have excellent command for 15+ starts?

    Your post caused me to go look at his game log. Let's call it 12 starts, even though I'd argue that his command was generally good in a few of his games in July even where he walked 3 batters. Command, to me, is not only about walks, it's about how often you are missing your spots.

    In any event my point doesn't really change. I believe that Guthrie is capable of pitching a lot of games where he keeps the ball down in the zone and gets ahead of hitters consistently, and when he does that, he will be successful. I never thought he was likely to end up with a sub-3.00 ERA but I have more confidence than you seem to have in the likelihood that he will be a no. 2-3 starter over the next few years.

  3. Bottom line is Guthrie's velocity is still way up there and it is still hiogh enough where he should be able to be successful.

    A 1-3MPH loss in velocity shouldn't kill his effectiveness.

    He isn't effective because he doesn't have the same command(Which you should have all seen coming) and his secondary pitches aren't consistent enough.

    I agree that Guthrie's recent struggles are due to lack of command, not velocity. However, what is less clear to me is whether Guthrie just had a "fluky" 3 months where his command was much better than it is going to be in the future, or whether his recent lack of command is the product of getting a bit tired as he approaches his career high for innings pitched. His problem, form what I see, is not overall lack of command, but specifically leaving pitches up in the zone, which is often a product of fatigue.) I recognize your point that his BB rate was never this good in the past, but on the other hand it's hard for me to imagine that it is possible for a pitcher to have excellent command for 15+ starts and have that be a "fluke." I'm taking a wait-and-see attitude, but in any event I fully expect to see Guthrie in next year's rotation barring something very unexpected.

  4. I'm not paying too much attention to this issue until tomorrow at midnight. If Wieters isn't signed by then, then I'll ***** and moan about it. Until then, none of these articles mean anything to me, just a lot of posturing and speculation.

  5. I wouldn't be averse to having Guthrie skip a start, if he has one more bad outing. Let's not forget, that was a red-hot offense he faced tonight. Since the all star break, the Yankees as a team are hitting .329/.396/.557, with 236 runs in 31 games. They had scored 102 runs in their last 8 home games before tonight. That's just sick!

  6. BTW, Burres is younger and has had better MiL success and did it in much better hitters leagues.

    Have you ever watched these two guys pitch? There is no comparison. Guthrie is by far the better pitcher. He throws 10 mph harder, and has better command.

  7. Nice work, but it looks like NoVa posted a Keith Law blog piece which predates Peace's scoop by 24 hours.

    Well, well...buried deep in this Keith Law blog post today was something I'm sure most of you would be interested in seeing:


    The second-most popular topic was the unsigned players from this June's draft. The Rays will get David Price done right before next week's signing deadline, probably in the $5-6 million range. Moustakas and the Royals are talking, but no deal is close. Rick Porcello, Wieters (around $4.5 million), and Andrew Brackman ($3 million) all have deals in place or close to it. We'll also see a slew of "signability" guys sign above-slot deals once we get to Aug. 14, the day before the deadline.


    Still good to have some confirmation from an inside source. I'm assuming that even though Peace21 says it's a "done deal," it won't be announced until closer to the deadline for political reasons.

  8. You cannot possibly be an O's fan.

    Cabrera just turned 26 a couple of months ago. He's 39-42, 4.79 ERA - pitching for lousy teams each year.

    At the same point in Bedard's career, he was 12-18 with a similar WHIP and maybe a half run better ERA. Did you start a thread about Bedard titled Buh-bye - or whatever you had in that sickening title that got replaced?

    All you have to do is look back to late May 2006 and you will see plenty of threads just like this one, but attacking Bedard. Who could forget the "send Bedard to the bullpen" thread, literally just before he turned the corner.

    That said, the comparison between Cabrera and Bedard at 26 is a bit miselading. At ages 23 and 24, Bedard was undergoing surgery and recuperating. At ages 23 and 24, Cabrera was pitching for the Orioles. At age 25, Bedard had a lower ERA as a rookie who hadn't really pitched in 18 months than Cabrera had as a third year player. At age 26, Bedard started the season with a 2.08 ERA over 9 starts, a stretch far better than anything Cabrera has ever done, before an injury derailed him. He still finished his 26-year old season with an ERA almost a full run below where DCab's is now.

    Simply put, I don't expect Cabrera to have a magical "light bulb" moment and suddenly become Bedard II. He is never going to be as consistent as Bedard now is. But I do think he's an OK 4th-starter type right now, who still has plenty of upside and is cheap.

  9. You make a good point about all the pitchers in the HOF having at least two 20 win seasons. However, I think Frobby's point really takes away from yours. But then again, I just don't care much about win totals in individual seasons, Mussina has pitched great in multiple seasons, it's not his fault he never got to 20. He's currently 48th in career wins, and will likely end up in the top 40, maybe even top 30. If wins is your thing, that's quite impressive, especially considering the era. Only 5 pitchers who were born after 1950 have 250 wins or more. Moose should become the 6th, and like Frobby said, probably the last for awhile unless Pedro can stay healthy.

    Bottomline, I will evaluate how he did at preventing runs, not how well his teammates did in helping him win 20 games.

    Of course I agree with your analysis. But in terms of how I think the vote WILL go (as opposed to how I would vote), I think it's going to take quite some before voters are willing to give up the 20-win criterion. After Clemens, Maddux, Glavine, Johnson and Pedro are already in the HOF, and a few years go by with no serious new pitcher candidates on the horizon, the voters will begin to give Moose a harder look. He's clearly behind those guys in the pecking order.

  10. Fair enough, RVA. I guess my question is, what is D-Cab's ceiling? Ace? No. 2? Solid No. 3? See, that's where it all falls apart for me. I can't slate him anywhere in those top three because of the wildness. And if there are GMs out there who can envision such things -- and I'd bet dollars to donuts there are -- I'd love us to send D-Cab their way in exchange for someone who might not have the same physical ability but knows how to pitch nonetheless.

    See, this is where you need to shift your thinking. If you view Cabrera as a guy who COULD and SHOULD be a no. 1-2 starter, he will give you glimpses of that but generally disappoint you and drive you crazy. But if you just look at him as a serviceable no. 4-5 starter/innings eater, he fills that role both well and cheaply.

    Here is a list of evey AL pitcher who has more than 60 IP, which therefore excludes all relievers and pitchers who have only a handful of starts. http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/pitching?sort=ERA&split=0&league=al&season=2007&seasonType=2&type=reg&ageMin=17&ageMax=51&hand=a&pos=all&minip=60 As you can see, there are 74 of these pitchers -- basically just enough to fill up the 70 roatation spots of the 14 AL teams. And DCab, before tonight, ranked 52nd on that list. (He should move up to about 48th after tonight.) So 1-14 are your no. 1's, 15-28 are your no. 2's, 29-42 are your no. 3's, and 43-56 are your no. 4's. Cabrera fits as a no. 4, and he is giving you a ton of innings in that spot. That is not a bad thing to have at all.

    Maybe one day Cabrera will fulfill a higher role, but for now he's useful for what he is.

    • Upvote 1

  11. Sure, you could call up Olson instead and move DCab into the bullpen. Simple.

    We have been waiting to see how many more starts we are going to give a guy who constantly shows he can't throw strikes in the first inning.

    78 walks so far (NOT COUNTING TONIGHT) in 2007

    104 walks in 2006

    He is on pace to break his own BB record. Not good.


    The walks, HBP's and wild pitches aggravate me. The poor fielding and inability to hold runners aggravate me, too. But at the end of the day, it's all about how many runs he allows, regardless of how they are scored. And I have little doubt that he's one of the best 5 we have in that regard.

    By the way, if he breaks his own walk record, it's only because he is going much deeper into games and pitching far more innings than last year, which is the one big area in which he has progressed this year.

  12. ...in the lineup?


    Is it Mazzone, Duq, Flanny, or Angelos (I won't even include MacPhail)?

    There is no way any reasonable baseball observer can look at Dcab's performances lately and justify him remaining in a starter role. Not when you have several other arms on the farm or the bench who can do the job.


    Well, I guess you are calling me unreasonable, then. If you think we have lots of other guys who can throw 6+ innings per start with an ERA around 5.00, you are wrong.


    Simple question: is there any other pitcher we have ever had who frustrated you more?

    My answer is no. Ponson and Dennis Martinez were enigmas, but not as much as DCab.

  14. Why not? Smoltz has had a great career, both regular season and postseason.

    His career WARP3 is almost as good as Eckersley and Smoltz(2 guys who started and closed) isn't done yet.

    I don't see an argument against Smoltz.

    BTW, if Mussina had the same exact career with us as he has had with the Yankees(ie never went to NY), i bet 98% of the hangouters would think he is a HOFer...SOur grapes IMO.

    Both your points are valid. I guess I just put the other 5 guys (Clemens, Maddux, Glavine, Johnson, Martinez) on a higher plane than Smoltz and so I expected he'd get fewer votes than them. He's a clear HOF'er in my mind, but I thought some of the tough graders might exclude him. BTW, I can't believe someone voted against Pedro.

  15. So far, these results have pretty much followed what I expected, with the following exceptions:

    1. I hadn't expected such unanimous support for Smoltz, even though I voted for him.

    2. I hadn't expected such uniform non-support for Wells, even though I didn't vote for him.

    I have to say that if fewer than 50% of Hangouters believe Mussina belongs in the Hall of Fame, then he is going to have a very uphill battle convincing 75% of the sportswriters who vote.

  16. Of that group I would rate these ahead of Mussina, Wells, Schilling, Pedro, Smotz, and possibly Petitite. I would rate these below, Moyer, Rogers, amd Wakefield.

    Have you voted in the poll I set up? See here: http://www.orioleshangout.com/forums/poll.php?do=showresults&pollid=1971

    You are in a small minority in thinking Wells is better than Mussina, per the poll results so far. Schilling and Mussina are running neck and neck. I didn't include Pettitte in the poll because I had to limit it to 10 candidates and he has fewer wins than the others I included.

  17. I did a little research on this for this same debate on another board. I don't know stats as well as a lot of you guys, but I understand basic milestones for pitchers, and I decided to see how Mussina's career stacks up to every other pitcher (besides Negro Leaguers) in the Hall of Fame right now....

    Every single starting pitcher in the Hall of Fame has a 20-win season. And all except Sutton have two, and Sutton also compiled 300 victories. Eckersley, who spent a good amount of time as a starter, also has one 20-win season.

    In other words, I know these are basic statistics and not the SABR stuff a lot of you guys are great at analyzing, but Mike Mussina fails to live up to these basic pitching benchmarks on all counts. And every single starting pitcher in the Hall of Fame does not fail.

    You make a very strong point, one that I expect the HOF voters will weigh when they consider Mussina. However, the way starting pitchers are used has changed dramatically in the last 20 years. The pitchers who will be retiring about now are really the first ones who played their entire career in the era of the 5-man rotation, and very heavy use of relief pitchers.

    Look at it this way: in a four man rotation a pitcher will start 40 times a year. If he wins half the games he starts, he wins 20 games. Nowadays, in a five man rotation, starters get only 32-34 starts a year. If they win half, that's 16-17 wins.

    Then there is the complete game phenomenon. It used to be common for really good starters to rack up 20 complete games or more, all of which resulted in a decision for the starter, one way or the other. But now, even great starters often have 5 or fewer complete games, and as a result, a lower percentage of their starts result in decisions one way or the other. Fewer decisions = fewer wins.

    Hence, last year there wasn't a single 20-game winner in MLB, and the National League had no pitcher who won more than 16 games!

    In fact, assuming Mussina achieves 250 wins, he may be the last pitcher to do that for a very, very long time. The players behind him are either probably too old to reach 250 or are so far away from that figure that it would take 7-10 years to reach that plateau, if they ever do:

    6. David Wells* (44) 235

    7. Jamie Moyer* (44) 225

    8. Curt Schilling (40) 213

    9. Kenny Rogers* (42) 210

    10. Pedro Martinez (35) 206

    11. John Smoltz (40) 203

    12. Andy Pettitte* (35) 193

    13. Tim Wakefield (40) 164

    (nobody else is over 150)

    So, eventually the 20-win criterion is going to go the way of the dinosaur, and 250 wins will be viewed in much the way that 300 wins is looked at today. I doubt Mussina gets in on the first ballot, but eventually his candidacy is going to look very good.

    • Upvote 1

  18. Yeah, but as a reliever you don't always have the same opportunity for a win as a starter. For example how many of those relief innings by Martinez were in long relief (four or more innings) where normally the starter got knocked out and the chances of the long man picking up a win are logically not going to be all that good?

    I think fewer wins could actually be meaningless under this scenario as a measure of Martinez versus Mussina, simply because he didn't have the same opportunity to garner a win as Mussina has as always pitching as a starter. Then again, perhaps I am just biased as I like Martinez better as he didn't go become a MFY!

    I'm missing your point. Forget Martinez's 130 relief appearances. Apart from that, he made 562 starts, to Mussina's 493. So, he has 69 extra starts plus 130 relief appearances, but the same number of wins.

  19. I never played pro ball but Little League, Senior League, and High School ball. Defense is defense and the positions don't change no matter what level. Did you ask Melvin?

    I don't think there is a blanket answer to the question of whether a starting infielder can make a good transition to outfield, and how long it takes. It depends on the player. No question that some have done it successfully, though. Here are a few examples:

    Brian Knoblauch: Rate of 99 in LF and 100 in CF

    Alfonso Soriano: Rates of 109 in LF and CF

    Jerry Hairston: Rates of 114 in LF, 103 in CF, 103 in RF

    Robin Yount: Rates of 95 in LF and 96 in CF 9 (a little below par, but not terrible)

    All of those guys had better foot speed than Tejada, though.

  20. Could you make the assumption that Tejada's defense in LF would mirror that of Gibbons?

    Let's do it this way: assume that Tejada could play LF defense equal to the combo of Payton/Gibbons, and that the transition would not affect his offense. I'd say those are both optimistic assumptions, but OK.

    Payton and Gibbons have created 56.1 runs in 167 games played, including partial games, pinch hitting appearances etc. So let's just call it 56.1 over a full season. That compares with the estimated 43.8 I used for Fahey/Hernandez. In that scenario, and assuming Fahey/Hernandez are roughly equal to Ozzie Smith, you'd lose 13 runs on offense but gain 17-25 runs on defense. That's a net gain of 4-12 runs, which would be worth 0-2 wins over a year.

    However, if you assume that Hernandez/Fahey are not Ozzie Smith but just somewhat above average, that Tejada will not be as good in LF as the Payton/Gibbons combo, and that Miggy's offense will suffer as he learns to playa new position,you are quickly into negative territory.

  21. Okay, your research proves me wrong. I was going by memory and did not realize that Marichal pitched in the post season. I still think he is and always will be a superior pitcher to Mike Mussina. However, regarding Martinez, I also think he may have been a long reliever early in his career whereas Mussina was always a starter (not 100% sure of this) and if so that would have a bearing on his having fewer wins and a lower winning percentage (possibly). I concede I was way wrong on his playing with lesser caliber teams than Mussina. However, I do wonder about their comparative run support. I just think those two (Martinez and Mussina) are very similar pitchers and comparable. In fact, I think Martinez may have a better shot at getting the HOF as he did pitch a perfect game, which is quite a feat.

    I think I have said enough on this topic, but to answer one question you had, Martinez did occasionally pitch in relief (562 starts vs. 130 relief appearances, including 76 with the Orioles). His last year with Atlanta he was primarily a reliever. However, Mussina has pitched fewer starts (562 to 493) and fewer innings (3999.2 to 3310.2) while racking up the same number of wins.

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