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Everything posted by Frobby

  1. I think I have said enough on this topic, but to answer one question you had, Martinez did occasionally pitch in relief (562 starts vs. 130 relief appearances, including 76 with the Orioles). His last year with Atlanta he was primarily a reliever. However, Mussina has pitched fewer starts (562 to 493) and fewer innings (3999.2 to 3310.2) while racking up the same number of wins.
  2. I'd love to answer your question, but I can't without making assumptions about Tejada's LF defense.
  3. This is a good, succinct argument. It hinges on two things: (1) just how "gifted" Hernandez really is at SS, and (2) whether Hernandez in extended AB could provide as much offense as our current DH crop. I suppose it also hinges on whether Miggy's offensive performance would improve, decline or stay the same if he was moved to DH. My belief is that you would lose some offense, and I doubt the defensive gain would be enough to make up for it. You are putting a lot of faith in Hernandez based on watching him play in 12 major league games. I'm a little inclined to believe more in his minor l
  4. I may have lost my way because I haven't read all 396 posts in this thread. I was just dealing with replacing Tejada with Fahey/Hernandez and whether that would help or hurt the team, and trying to answer the question of how much offense it would cost. Are you proposing that we make Tejada a left fielder? If so, I'd have to know how his defense would be out there in order to measure the effects you are talking about.
  5. Let me just deal with the offensive side of the equation for a minute. According to the Runs Created formula, Miguel Tejada has created 44.3 runs in 79 games this year. Over 162 games that would be 90.2 runs. Since we have very small sample sizes for Hernandez and Fahey for 2007, let's just use Fahey for 2006, when he created 24.6 runs in 91 games. Over 162 games over a full season that would be 43.8 runs created, probably a bit more since Fahey's 91 games included a lot of partial games where he didn't start. From that, I'd conclude that the offensive difference between Tejada and his
  6. Frobby

    Vin Scully is God

    Scully is awesome. I miss the days when he used to call NBC's game of the week. Jon Miller is not only awesome, but he can do a mean Scully impression.
  7. I think Schilling gets in based on his World Series performances. Brown, I think, was a very good pitcher who will be forgotten as time moves on, kind of the Bert Blyleven of his day.
  8. I thought it would be worth doing a poll to get an idea of what people think. Here are the top 10 candidates among starting pitchers of recent vintage. It's possible that all 10 could eventually get in. Vote for as many as you think deserve it.
  9. You are losing a lot of credibility here because you don't check your facts before shooting from the hip. 1. ERA+, which measures a pitcher's ERA compared to the average ERA of his league and makes adjustments for what ballpark he pitched in, is a much better measure than raw ERA. Mussina: 123 ERA+ Marichal: 122+ Martinez: 106 ERA+ 2. The Oriole teams that Mussina played on were, in general, not very good, and certainly far inferior to the ones Martinez pitched for. Martinez pitched for the Orioles from 1976 to partway through the 1986 season. They won a World Series (1983), won anoth
  10. That's because (1) his replacements hit almost .300 for the month Tejada was out, and (2) players at other positions, notably Corey Patterson and Nick Markakis, got hot. That was fortunate, but frankly, fluky. Look at Gomez, Fahey and Hernandez's track record and you'll see that you'd be very lucky to get a .650 OPS out of the three of them over an extended period of time. However, I have to agree with you on one point -- Tejada is not worth a run per game compared to a replacement, that is a gross exaggeration.
  11. I don't agree with this argument. I know of no evidence at all to suggest that record in one-run games is correlated to defense. In fact, the O's have the best fielding percentage in the AL, and the best defensive efficiency rating, yet the worst record in one-run games. The two teams with the best record in one- and two- run games are Cleveland and Seattle, both of which are poor fielding, good hitting teams with poor-fielding shortstops. http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/teams/ http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/fielding?groupId=7&season=2007&seasonType=2&split=82&sor
  12. As I have said before, it's dangerous to rely on the stats generated by Hernandez/Fahey/Gomez, splitting time over one month of play. Fahey and Hernandez both made their share of errors in the minors, but in 8-12 starts each last month they made no errors, so they end up looking better than they might look if you saw more of them. Just as a hitter can have a few weeks where he plays over his head, so can a fielder.
  13. I do not agree with your opinion on the underlying issue, but I do agree that this is, at least in part, a matter of opinion. The available statistics do not support your opinion, but there are good arguments to be made that the available statistics do not do a great job of measuring defense and its impact. So, I respect your right to have the opinion you do, even though I think you are wrong.
  14. Actually, some of these stats do purport to include the effects of these types of things. Whether they do so accurately is certainly open to debate. Please give me your estimate of how many DP balls Tejada has "botched" this year.
  15. So if he made the attempt and threw wild, he'd be criticized for having thrown it in the first place. Lose/lose.
  16. What an absurd remark. I am not going to sit here and tell you that Tejada is just as good now as he was in 2004 and the first half of 2005, but he is far better than average. Of 28 shortstops who qualify, Miggy is 6th in batting average, 8th in OBP, 12th in slugging, 10th in OPS, 13th in RBI (despite missing a month), and 11th in RC/27. The worst you can say is that he has slipped from elite to above average.
  17. Actually a 99 rate, under BP's system, means that if you played 100 games, you would cost your team 1 run compared to an average fielder: Tejada has played fewer than 100 games, so that means his defense has cost the team something less than one run compared to an average shortstop so far this season, according to BP. Not much of a price to pay for his offense.
  18. This is kind of like arguing about religion. Has anybody changed their mind during this endless argument over the last week?
  19. No, I understand the points you are making. But even within the Hall of Fame there are levels of "eliteness," so the fact that Mussina isn't comparable to, say, Warren Spahn, doesn't mean Moose shouldn't be in. You cannot lump Mussina in with Dennis Martinez, as Mussina was far better. But let me compare both of them with Marichal, who you seem to have no problem including. Mussina: 245-141, .635 winning pct., 3.67 ERA, 123 ERA+, 5-time all-star, 6-time Cy Young vote-getter. Martinez: 245-193, .559 winning pct., 3.70 ERA, 106 ERA+, 4-time all-star, 5-time Cy Young vote getter. Marichal:
  20. And the other half wants to put you on ignore! Just kidding, SG, just kidding. I just couldn't resist.
  21. Nobody is above criticism, certainly including Tejada. As to Lugo, the Red Sox thought enough of him to sign him for 4 years, $36 mm plus a vesting option for a 5th year. I thought Theo Epstein was a genius and much smarter than our front office?
  22. I do feel that the Tejada-bashers ignore the good plays Tejada makes and sometimes make too much of his failure to get to certain balls. For example, in Monday's game Tejada made a great stop and throw from the OF grass in the hole. Meanwhile, Julio Lugo went to go get a ball in the hole, gloved it, but couldn't keep it in his glove and it went for a hit. Another time in the game, on Millar's two run single, the ball was a grounder hit to the SS side of 2B and Lugo couldn't get to it. If either of those plays had happened to Tejada, the Tejada-bashers would have been out in force criticizi
  23. I haven't watched every inning of every game since Tejada came back, but I find it hard to call a guy "brilliant" when he has made 2 errors in 5 games since he returned. I have seen him make a couple of very tough plays in the hole that I do not believe our other shortstops would have had the arm to pull off. I haven't seen the pop ups to which you refer so I can't comment on those.
  24. Can someone describe the play that resulted in the error? I wasn't watching at the time. However, when I got in my car (in about the 6th inning) the announers were discussing some other defensive play by Tejada that they had described as outstanding (maybe starting a tough DP, but I'm not sure).
  25. Raines is clearly the class of the first-time eligibles. He's a great test case for the sabermetric crowd. I'm guessing that he won't get in on the first ballot, though. Next year is a great time for one or two guys who have been lurking for a while finally getting the nod.
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