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Everything posted by Frobby

  1. The Red Sox are out. Now I can exhale.
  2. No huge surprise. He’ll still have a shot to make the club next year. https://www.masnsports.com/school-of-roch/2021/10/orioles-outright-austin-wynns.html
  3. I don’t disagree with your hypothetical, but it’s a pretty unlikely scenario. You have to consider both upside and floor. Let’s say you have a HS guy with a 65 upside but 40 floor, and a college guy with a 60 upside but a 50 floor. Do you take the guy with the higher upside? I think the Elias Doctrine says no in that scenario. And I’d bet their analysis is a bit more probabilistic than I described, i.e., they probably model the likelihood of the ceiling, floor and in between outcomes based on their data.
  4. I always felt Hays had more in him if he could get healthy. He was so spectacular in 2017, I’ve just always believed in him. I don’t feel that way about Neustrom, but he might be a mild upgrade over Stewart if we’re lucky.
  5. Thinking of Michael and Denise today. Wish i could have attended but you are in my thoughts.
  6. Under. From 2016-19, only 12 outfielders had 14 fWAR. I don’t see Mullins at that level. If he was at 10+ he’d still be in the top 21 in that group. (I used 2016-19 to avoid the partial 2020 season. If you made it 11.5 for 2017-21 it would still be only 12 names.)
  7. @Can_of_corn posted this article in another forum, but this article on the experience in the Atlantic League and certain minor leagues should be read by anyone advocating for an electronic strike zone. It’s not as simple a situation as you think. https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2021/10/21/22736400/experimental-rules-atlantic-league-robo-umps
  8. Sure. Over the final 81 games he had an .811 OPS. I’d be fine with that, happy in fact. In terms of trade value, I’m sure other teams are expecting regression.
  9. Hyde, via Roch: That was a really disappointing injury because he was really fun to watch improving,” manager Brandon Hyde said during the final homestand. “I’m excited about [Mateo] going forward. I think he’s got big-time ability. He’s got rare tools in that he does a lot of things that a lot of guys can’t do on the baseball field from a speed factor. He’s got power, he can play both spots in the middle, he can play the outfield. So, I was really looking forward to watching him play through September, but unfortunately his season got cut short.” Hyde also said he thinks Mateo
  10. OK but this thread seems to be drifting from the initial question about how much the DWL will matter in all this. I think he’ll get the same opportunity in ST pretty much regardless of how he plays in the DWL. Also, how do you delineate “regular playing time?” Nobody plays every day in spring training. Last year Mateo got 57 at bats in spring training with San Diego, which was 11th most of any player in MLB. Hays led the O’s with 51. https://www.mlb.com/stats/at-bats/spring-training?page=2
  11. Well, exaggerating there. It’s hard to throw 7 innings in 50 pitches unless you’re getting a ton of 1-2 pitch outs, which seems unlikely. My non-exaggerated point was that any 7 inning games he pitched in HS we’re probably less stressful on his arm than doing it in the minors. His one 7 inning outing in 2019 took 100 pitches, by the way. Which goes back to my original post, that the limits on Rodriguez last year were a product of not having pitched competitively the year before, not some general philosophy of limiting young pitchers to 5 innings/75ish pitches. He exceeded those figures
  12. Maybe. But I still think the data should have been included, if you were going to include the Orioles stats and try to show a trend of improvement over the last 2 years or so. I would not say he got everyday at bats in last year’s DWL. He had 75 PA compared to 152 and 124 In some other seasons. I want to be clear - I have some hope for Mateo. I just didn’t think the data presented the full picture.
  13. My sense is that Neustrom will be a very similar player to Stewart. Not sure he’s an upgrade at all but arguably it might be worthwhile to find out anyway, since Stewart has looked like a replacement level player in 193 games, 609 PA. He could improve a bit offensively but he’s always going to be pretty limited in what he can do.
  14. I don’t consider myself to have a scout’s eye, but I saw enough balls elude Urias to know his range is below average for a major league SS. Neither he nor Mateo is very smooth with pivot feeds when attempting to start a DP. I didn’t see enough of Mateo to judge his range.
  15. None, but he did go 7 innings once as a 19 year old in 2019 when the O’s weren’t dealing with a season where nobody had pitched in a game in a year.
  16. Sure. But I think the 72 PA in the DWL are less meaningful than the 2020 results in a full year of AAA and the 2021 results in 209 at bats in the majors. BTW, you really should have included Mateo’s .572 OPS in 93 PA in San Diego this year before he came to the O’s.
  17. Probably won’t have any. Mateo has played in the Dominican Winter League for years. He might get 75-150 PA there this winter. Hard to see how this would move the needle in any serious way. I will say, he hadn’t hit well at all in previous winter seasons (.600 career OPS in 488 PA there) so it would be nice if he did better. But it won’t matter much.
  18. I generally do agree with the “so many pitches” theory. I’m just not confident he’s ready, plus you know his innings will be severely restricted.
  19. Diaz 0 for 5 though. And Stowers hasn’t played in the last couple of games.
  20. I’m counting on DL Hall next year about as much as I’m counting on Hunter Harvey. He’s had trouble staying healthy, and has a whopping 31.2 innings of AA under his belt. Granted, he looked very good in those games, but I see him starting in AA again and then maybe getting a promotion to AAA after 1-2 months if he’s dominating. Maybe he gets some major league time at the end of the year, but more likely, they just try to keep him healthy for 100 minor league innings and then pencil him in for 2023.
  21. Shrug. Short season fluke, in my opinion. Just like our 25-35 was a short season fluke. They outperformed their Pythag by five games in a 60-game season. Their Pythag projected out to a 70-win season over 162 games. This year’s Pythag actually was a little better at 72-90. That said, the NL East is pretty weak so it might not take much for Miami to become a contender.
  22. I think that’s fair. I think though that the super high upside HS guys are usually pretty obvious. If there’s three guys to choose from out of HS with no clear favorite, that’s probably a time to favor a college guy.
  23. They’re a contender compared to us, I guess. They had the sixth-worst record in baseball, 67-95.
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