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Frobby

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Everything posted by Frobby

  1. Thanks. I also cited Davis’ average fly ball distance from Statcast in another thread: 215 , 212, 202, 189 and 193. Same message.
  2. I’d put the Padres in the category of possible playoff contender, depending mostly on how their younger players mature. PECOTA projects them for 79 wins. Most of the Vegas oddsmakers seem to be in the 82.5 - 84.5 range for over/under. That’s enough to hope for an 88-90 win season and possible wild card.
  3. My short answer is, everything and nothing. I just eat up every positive quote, every positive report about how some player looks in camp, and every positive statistic and performance in the spring trading games. I love it, every last bit of it. And yet, I know it means very little. Most players will make the team, or not make it, regardless of how they do in spring training. And as often as not, player performance during the season, whether in the majors or the minors, will bear very little relationship to how they performed or looked in spring training. So mostly, I’m just looking forward to having some games to watch, some box scores to read, and some reports and quotes to enjoy, rather than the cold vacuum of winter. All that said, what I really enjoy is seeing the few televised games and getting looks at players I’ve never seen or have only seen in previous Springs. So, I’m most looking forward to getting some looks at Akin, Lowther, Kremer, Wells, Zimmermann, Mountcastle, Diaz, McKenna and the like. And the Rule 5 guys.
  4. He took back some of what he said specifically about steroids. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.chicagotribune.com/news/ct-xpm-2005-05-04-0505040195-story,amp.html He certainly did state that certain players including himself tried steroids. It remains my impression that steroid use became far more common during the period in which Canseco played, and that he was at the start of that wave.
  5. Not really. So far as I know, Canseco never once admitted to using steroids until 2005, four years after he retired and in the process of trying to sell a book. Caminiti had admitted his steroid use in 2002, in a Sports Illustrated article.
  6. I know that. But I believe it was a pretty small percentage in the pre-Canseco period and became much more prevalent over the course of his career. So, I still consider him an early adapter in that sense.
  7. Canseco had every reason to estimate on the high side, as he was trying to excuse his own behavior with the classic “everyone else was doing it” excuse. Well, it turns out a lot of players were doing it, and he was far from the only one. But I do think he was an early adapter and that there were plenty of guys who weren’t using steroids.
  8. I’m in the same place you are. I’m not expecting significant improvement, but I’m not flat out thinking it’s impossible.
  9. Putting aside all the strikeouts, here is Davis’ ISO the last 5 years: .300 .238 .208 .128 .147 Here’s his HR/FB%: 21.1% 19.3% 16.8% 10.2% 11.9% All that decline is unrelated to how often he struck out. If he’s able to hit the ball harder and further, it can only help. Now, will it make him above replacement value, which is basically where he was in 2017 when he had a .208 ISO and 16.8 HR%? I doubt it.
  10. From Conine’s interview yesterday: “You know what? I loved Baltimore,” he said. “I remember every time we broke camp and we’d go up, right before opening day, we went to the ballpark and set up the lockers. I remember going out at night and looking at Camden Yards with my dress clothes that I had worn up from spring training, and just a happy place. I really enjoyed all my time in Baltimore. “Those days, getting to play with Cal (Ripken) and Brady (Anderson) and Mike (Bordick) and B-Rob (Brian Roberts) and all those guys, it was a fun time for me and we had great teams and a great atmosphere at Camden Yards. When anybody ever asks me my favorite place I ever played, I always say that. I say Camden Yards is my favorite.” https://www.masnsports.com/school-of-roch/2020/02/sisco-on-revamped-hitting-approach-conine-on-new-role-with-orioles.html Great atmosphere at Camden Yards? Sure. “We had great teams?” Not so much. 78, 74, 63, 67, 71 and 70 wins in 1999-2003 and 2006, Conine’s years with the team. But he was a solid ballplayer.
  11. That’s the tricky part. A player who underperforms can only have so much deficit in value, because he simply won’t play much if he’s really bad. But the players on the other end of the spectrum can create huge amounts of surplus value. So, the “mean” result typically will be much higher than the “median” result. Taking 1:1 for example, the mean WAR is 19.8, the median WAR is 14.4. One ARod makes up for about five Danny Goidwins.
  12. You hear that lament when you have a player with a high BA but a low OBP. But normally, if you hold OBP constant, you’d rather have the BA component be higher and the walk rate lower, for the simple reason that walks sometimes don’t advance a runner, and never advance a runner more than one base, whereas hits always advance a runner, and often by more than one base. Of course, you also have to look at SLG to fully evaluate the player. An interesting comparison from last year would be Chance Sisco vs. Hanser Alberto. Sisco hit .210/.333/.396; Alberto hit .305/.329/.422. Their OBP’s were close to equal; Alberto had the much higher BA; Alberto also had the higher SLG, but his ISO was much lower. Per Fangraphs, they had a near identical wOBA: .319 for Sisco, .318 for Alberto. But by BB-ref’s runs created per game, Alberto wins handily, 4.9 to 4.3. I can’t really explain why wOBA and RC/G would yield such divergent results. I would expect them to line up nicely. Maybe @DrungoHazewood has a theory.
  13. It’s too soon to know if Altuve will have a great enough career to warrant serious HOF consideration, but it’s certainly possible at this point. Assuming he does have that kind of career, yes I suspect the cheating scandal will affect enough voters to keep him out. We’ll get an early test of this in January 2023 when Carlos Beltran is eligible for the first time.
  14. Nobody knows. https://www.baseball-reference.com/bullpen/Steroids
  15. I don’t think it was close to 90%. But it was certainly a high enough percentage where you could never sort it out and punish sone teams and not others.
  16. That’s a very extreme prediction. Springer: 73 career homers at home, 87 on the road. Bregman: 44/55 Gurriel 38/27 Altuve: 72/56 I’d certainly bet on Springer and Bregman hitting 20+ homers. Not necessarily the other two, especially if MLB has dialed back the baseballs.
  17. You realize, I assume, that several other teams before the Astros used technological means to steal and transmit signs. Like, for example, the 1951 Giants. https://sabr.org/bioproj/topic/1951-giants-cheating-scandal-effects
  18. It’s absurd to think he hasn’t had his eyes tested a million times. He’s a professional athlete playing in the major leagues. I think what this is more about is training your eyes to follow an object that is moving 80-100 mph, pick up the spin in flight, and react. That’s difficult and most people who have 20-20 vision can’t do it to the extent necessary to succeed as a player in Major League Baseball.
  19. He didn’t say that’s all he did. “There were a lot of things. It was basically just a bunch of options. The plan that I had going into the offseason was the same thing I started kind of toward the offseason with the weight training, the nutrition and some of the eye stuff and some of the stretching stuff. And together I took that into the offseason. But there were just a multiple of options to go off that. I did a lot of stuff.” https://www.masnsports.com/school-of-roch/2020/02/davis-on-his-offseason-workouts-thoughts-of-quitting-and-more.html I’d love to know what “eye stuff” he did. Recognizing and reacting to pitches has been a huge problem for him the last 2-3 years.
  20. That would be an amazing rebound. I don’t think there’s any chance of that happening.
  21. When you say it isn’t going to go away, what exactly do you mean? Do you expect Manfred to change the punishment? Do you expect teams to retaliate on the field? Or do you just mean that people (or players) will continue to talk about it?
  22. I don’t even know what a “rebound” would look like when you’re that far down in the crater.
  23. So do you think anything will actually happen when the Braves play the Astros? They play the final three games of the season against each other, plus twice in spring training.
  24. I think people are blowing that one sentence out of proportion. But watching Nick’s interview, you can see he’s really unhappy that Manfred didn’t punish the players. He’s actually gotten a bit more outspoken and articulate over the last few years. He’s universally respected in the game, so his words carry a lot of weight.
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