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Everything posted by Frobby

  1. By my count, here is our 1st round yield in the various categories through the 2016 draft (I'm excluding 2017-21 since we have top prospects from each of those classes who haven't reached the majors yet, but are likely to do so). High school pitchers: 8 major leaguers out of 14 selected, for a total of 14.8 rWAR (Bundy is highest at 8.6) High school hitters: 10 major leaguers out of 21 selected, for a total of 148.8 rWAR (Grich 71.0, Machado 45.4, Werth 29.2) College pitchers: 9 major leaguers out of 17 selected, for a total of 153.2 rWAR (Mussina 82.8, McDonald 20.8, Harnisch 1
  2. Not really. They’ve signed both for 7+ years. They’ll be around when their younger core matures. Whether they’ll start to go downhill, and how fast, is the big question.
  3. The odds of at least one of them failing are certainly higher than 50/50.
  4. They are right now. I’ve said as much. But being terrible all the time is not a good way to stay profitable.
  5. I said rebound, not “turn the corner.” I’m not a big fan either, as you probably know. But prior to last year he had a 4.50 career ERA, and last year he had a 4.41 FIP, so I think it’s reasonable to hope for a mid-4’s ERA instead of the 5.17 we got in 2021.
  6. I contest the premise that a team with low attendance and a low payroll is a more attractive purchase target than a team with high attendance and a higher payroll, and will get a higher purchase price. If I’m buying a team, the price is determined by the ability to be profitable on a sustained basis, and also whether the team is in a situation to become a winning organization.
  7. Sorry, spiritof66, but I don’t buy it. I don’t think Elias would have taken the job without having the goal of building a perennial contender.
  8. Just to get off the FA topic for a spell, where do you think it’s reasonable to expect some internal improvement this year? 1B/DH: Mountcastle is through his rookie year now, Mancini will never a year removed from batting cancer. Chances for internal improvement: 75% IMO. 2B/SS: Urias looks promising and Mateo is at least interesting. We lose a half season of Galvis, who was steady if unspectacular. Chances of internal improvement: 50%. 3B: Losing Franco is an automatic plus. Gutierrez needs to prove he can hit at least a little, but even if he didn’t, he’d be better t
  9. Well, we’ve certainly seen over the years, regardless of who the GM is, that most of the O’s offseason moves happen after Jan. 1, and into February and sometimes March. So, I’m hoping there are some bigger moves ahead. But based on Elias’ track record to date, and what he’s said in recent interviews, I’m certainly not expecting anything big or splashy.
  10. I don’t know if I’d say it’s a “poor” move. It’s certainly an uninspiring one. If that’s the most significant move we make this offseason, I’d certainly call the offseason a poor one.
  11. I think we should avoid hyperbole here. Sure, it is possible that Odor will have a rebound year that is better than his last several. For that reason, it’s possible that in hindsight we’ll say that this move wasn’t a waste of time. But the odds are against Odor being anything better than he’s been the last five years. There’s a high probability that he won’t significantly improve the team. I’d be happy to be wrong about that.
  12. Alex Cobb signed with the Giants for 2/$20 mm, structured as $9 mm per season plus a $10 mm option with a $2 mm buyout. The way things seem to go, he’ll probably be outstanding for the Giants.
  13. And what if he does? He had a 30-homer season in 2019 in which he was worth -0.3 rWAR. The dingers don’t make up for a .283 OBP.
  14. Yeah, I don’t want to see him taking at bats from Urias. But I don’t think he goes into ST with a guaranteed spot in the lineup, and I doubt he will cost Urias at bats. He may push Urias to SS if he plays a lot. That’s not ideal.
  15. I don’t agree with those saying Odor makes the team worse. The problem is, he doesn’t make it better. I was really hoping for some modest upgrades for the infield and pitching staff. Odor’s not an upgrade, he’s a placeholder. I do agree with wildcard. The offseason isn’t over, and there’s still time to upgrade the team. I can’t say I’m optimistic, but I’m still holding out hope. Here’s my question: what the hell happened to Odor? Three years into his career he was a .766 OPS, 5.3 rWAR player, only 22 years old. Texas saw a future star and signed him to a long term
  16. Not giving an opportunity to somebody with more of a potential future?
  17. Per Roch. I guess he got through waivers, though it’s not clear.
  18. “Adding depth.” “Good power.” “Veteran.” “Excellent in a brawl.”
  19. Who pays his $3 mm buyout after the 2022 season? It better be Texas.
  20. I’m with you on the Franco analogy, but I bet Odor costs a lot more. Let’s hope he rebounds under our tutelage, though there’s no reason to expect it.
  21. Can’t see behind the paywall. Will be interesting to see what other news outlets publish on this. Seems crazy.
  22. What makes you think Thorne was an Elias move? I doubt he had anything to do with that. It’s not a Baseball Operations move and probably doesn’t affect his budget at all. I’ll concede Brocail was probably Elias (Hyde may have had some say in it).
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