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Everything posted by Frobby

  1. Can’t wait for the 2019 list to come out! I’m guessing, based on last year, that we have to wait until November. I think you can argue that the top 8 pretty much held serve. I assume Baumann will show up in that group, and obviously Rutschman at no. 1. That should be your top 10 IMO. I think only Kline, Stewart and Means (ranked 28!) have graduated, and there’s a lot of new players deserving of consideration, so I expect a lot of movement below the top 10.
  2. Also the A’s teams of 2001-03, who won 301 games in three years but only one World Series. By contrast, the 1972-74 A’s won only 277 games while winning the World Series three straight years. It always stuck in my craw that those A’s teams got more postseason glory than the 1969-71 O’s that won 318 regular season games and swept three straight ALCS.
  3. This post, one of a series of May/June posts in which you predicted Mancini would be about a replacement level player this year, did not age well. 3.3 rWAR, 3.6 fWAR.
  4. But much of that is on the merits. Powell - 39.0 rWAR Johnson - 27.6 B. Robinson - 78.4 Belanger - 40.9 Buford - 36.3 Blair 37.8 F. Robinson 107.3 Etchebarren, by comparison, is at 10.8, barely 1/3 of the second-worst total, Davey Johnson’s 27.6. He wasn’t as good as the others on that team. His best argument is that Elrod Hendricks (7.5 rWAR) is in, and that while Ellie had a very long coaching career for the Orioles, Etch also had a good bit of service as an Orioles coach.
  5. I think the group who left break into two categories — those who were traded for something of (perceived) value and those who were more or less abandoned. I don’t think management gave up on Hader or Davies, they just wanted to win now and preferred to give up assets who weren’t in the majors yet. I’ll also point out that while Davies was drafted in the 26th round, he was paid an overslot bonus of $500,000, which was (I think) about 3rd round money. So it’s not like everyone thought his success was just some fluke that had no chance of being sustained. I do think Duquette undervalued him, but it certainly wasn’t because of the round in which he was drafted. Guys like Yaz, Bridwell and Drake are in the “didn’t seem to have much value” category.
  6. Villar was at 1.6 rWAR, 1.4 fWAR at the trade deadline, worth $$11.6 mm per Fangraphs in 2/3 of a season, after being worth $16 mm in 2018. He was never going to be nontendered to avoid a $7-8 mm arbitration award, IMO. And he did have some trade value then — I’m not saying it was a ton, but some. His strong finish obviously enhanced his value, but it’s not like he had no positive value at the deadline.
  7. I don’t assume he had no trade value at the deadline. I assume Elias was dissatisfied with any offers and decided he’d be better off shopping Villar over the winter. That said, obviously a one-year rental is only worth so much.
  8. What’s the expected timing of the OH list? Would be interested to see quotes of what BA said.
  9. I considered him, but was dissuaded by the rather dismissive remarks by Keith Law a month or two back.
  10. I doubt that. If he wanted to preserve Hays’ rookie status, I think that was just a nice gesture towards Hays. The state of the team’s prospects are the same regardless of whether Hays is technically a rookie or not, regardless of what some ranking may say. It’s not going to help the Orioles if their system is ranked, say, 9th instead of 11th because Hays is counted as a “prospect.” Either way, he is what he is as an asset.
  11. Or for other reasons such as trying to get everyone some playing time in the final few games. (But I suspect you’re right.)
  12. I think both are important. Gate receipts are an important source of revenue, but by no means the biggest source of revenue these days. Attendance tells you something about overall fan interest in the game that gate receipts don't necessarily tell you. I do suspect that the overall decline in MLB attendance is driven significantly by the aging of the fan base. Older fans are dying or are becoming less able to travel to games, and younger fans are not replacing them fast enough. The other causes arguably are (1) the slowing pace of games, and/or (2) the increasing number of teams who, like the Orioles, are not really trying to play respectable baseball while they rebuild. A league full of teams who are winning between, say, 60 and 102 games, with a lot of teams in the 75-87 win range, will draw better than a league full of teams who are winning between 54 and 108 games with only a couple of teams in the middle (and those teams are further behind the top teams than they'd be in a more balanced league).
  13. Not sure he qualifies (as he got promoted), but I'll go with Adam Stauffer.
  14. Brief update: Alex Wells has been pitching 1-2 inning relief stints once every four days, most recently on Sunday. He's carrying a 1.17 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in 7.2 IP. Dean Kremer has started once per week and has gone from 2 to 3 to 4 IP. He's carrying a 2.00 ERA and 0.78 WHIP. Cody Carroll has pitched 5.2 IP over 6 outings, to a 3.18 ERA and 1.76 WHIP. David Lebron has pitched 7.2 innings to a 4.70 ERA and 1.43 WHIP. Mason McCoy is batting .300/.417/.400 in 36 PA. Rylan Bannon is batting .205/.234/.205 in 46 PA. TJ Nichting (who recently went to the AFL instead of Austin Hays) has played one game and went 0 for 4. For context, the AFL has been much more of a pitcher's league this year. The average OPS is about .705 and ERA is about 3.75.
  15. https://www.masnsports.com/steve-melewski/2019/10/in-september-austin-hays-showed-his-tools-and-smarts.html
  16. Sure it added value, but if that value comes exclusively while the team is terrible, I’d say it served little strategic purpose. Now, if we trade Villar for some useful future pieces because of his good season this year, then maybe we got some strategic value out of the trade.
  17. Every team has their Arrieta equivalent. For the Astros it was JD Martinez. What’s the lesson, “never be wrong in assessing your own prospects?” “Have coaches who are able to maximize the ability of every single player?” These are nice goals, but not fully attainable. You just hope your correct decisions outnumber the bad ones by a significant margin.
  18. 1. That remains to be seen. 2. I don’t think I’d define the criterion for a successful trade that extremely. Let’s say that Diaz turns out to be a league average RF, Kremer becomes a no. 4-5 starter, and Pop and Bannon get some major league time. I’m not sure if any piece of that equates to “future changing asset,” but I’d sure call that a very successful trade. Ironically, if Villar has 2.3 good years for us while we’re terrible and Ortiz and Carmona prove useless, I don’t regard that trade as strategically successful even though Villar > Schoop while we had him. The idea here is to get assets that contribute to our next winning team.
  19. I texted two of my friends last night, “how does Jay Gruden still have a job?” Not that changing coaches will fix this mess.
  20. Hilarious, but sad: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/10/01/casey-bat-poem-baseball-modern-era/
  21. Nice tribute from Melewski: https://www.masnsports.com/steve-melewski/2019/10/remembering-two-seasons-spent-working-with-andy-etchebarren.html I was somewhat surprised to learn that Etchebarren is not in the Orioles Hall of Fame.
  22. Not really. The following managers have less than 5 years experience: Boone 2 years Baldelli 1 year Bell 1 year Callaway 2 years (fired) Cora 2 years Counsell < 5 years Green 4 years Hyde 1 year Kapler 2 years Lovullo 3 years Martinez 2 years Montoyo 1 year Renteria 4 years Roberts 4 years Servais 4 years Shildt 1.5 years Snitker < 4 years Woodward 1 year
  23. In the annals of horrible blown losses, those two games might be one-two in my mind (with the Mothers’ Day game being worse). Another one that sticks out in my mind is BJ Ryan coughing up a walk-off to David Ortiz on June 2, 2005, after the O’s had taken a 4-3 lead in the top of the 9th. Walk-off blown saves vs. NY or Boston are as bad as it gets!
  24. Apparently he thinks the term includes swinging and missing the ball entirely. Or, his eyesight’s just not that good. 😎
  25. I’ll take your word for it. Always defer to someone who actually sees the games!
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