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Posts posted by Frobby

  1. 32 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

    I think Mountcastle was at .7 or .8 when he was in the outfield.

    He cooled off a lot with the bat in the final two weeks of the season. It kind of went under the radar because his overall numbers were still very good.   .286/.321/.306 over his final 13 games.   Mostly a power outage, nothing that really concerns me.

    • Thanks 1

  2. George Springer has 18 postseason home runs in 292 plate appearances. Reggie Jackson had 18 postseason home runs in 318 plate appearances, while David Ortiz had 17 in 369.“


    Its amazing to think that Springer has had that many postseason plate appearances already.    He kind of flies under the radar, but he’s a very talented player.


  3. Well, it’s a good thing that we have six of them, not three, so we can deal with the injuries when they happen.   I agree that nobody’s really proven they can hold up over 162, but you never know.   I remember Adam Jones seemed injury prone his first couple of years, but then he became a guy who could stay on the field despite having a lot of bumps and bruises.   

  4. 21 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

    I'm that annoyed with the fans that are so deeply wounded about the Astros getting caught cheating.  It's like steroids all over again.  You cheat a little and no one cares, you get good at cheating and everyone loses their minds.

    Stealing signs outside of the field of play has been going on forever, we all know this.  I'm sure we all remember the trips to the Skydome?

    Right now what is probably a majority of ML pitchers break the rules of the game every appearance.  No one cares.

    The Red Sox get caught multiple times and they get a video tech suspended.

    I think it's ridiculous, get over it.  Teams cheat.

    I figured it was something like this.   

  5. 8 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

    I'd have preferred the Astros but I'm fine with the Rays.  Sure takes the wind out of the sales of the fans that think you have to spend.

    Why did you want the Astros?   Do you genuinely like their team, or is it just your contrarian nature to root for a team to win that was punished for cheating and finished the season with a losing record?

    I’ll say this, my happiness for the Rays is just about my liking the way their organization succeeds despite limited financial resources, not an anti-Astros thing.   

  6. 1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

    Agree to disagree, Frobasaurus Rex. 

    What exactly are you trying to say here?    I mean, I know I’m a bit of a dinosaur, but do we really have to be that explicit about it?    It’s like the Jerry Seinfeld bit about why do they have to call a nose job a rhinoplasty?

    • Haha 1

  7. I’m very happy the Rays won.   Well-deserved.  Now if the Braves can pull out Game 7 I can be very happy with the WS matchup.    Though I won’t be offended if the Dodgers go, either.   

  8. 6 minutes ago, forphase1 said:

    I don't know where your kids play little league, but around here most games aren't even recorded,  much less having any kind of data like launch angles and exit velocity.

    I think he’s saying a little league aged kid can go to a training facility and get this data.   

    • Upvote 2

  9. 51 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

    Could be interesting speculating about why some players aren't being mentioned in these fluff pieces.

    Other than that, yea, nothing of substance gets mentioned.

    I hope the players are getting paid for this.

    The O’s paid their MiL players all summer even though they weren’t playing.   I kind of doubt they’re being paid for this, other than free hotel, team buffet and maybe a little meal money.   I know they’re not paid for spring training.   

  10. 4 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

    I really can't stand these articles.  It's like Spring Training.  Everyone looks good, everyone looks fantastic, everyone's doing well.  Roch could save himself the time and just save these articles with spaces for the players names and swap them out from year to year, we'd never know the difference and get giddy just the same.

    Couldn’t disagree more.   I agree it’s just enthusiastic fluff, but I’ll take it in this year when there’s been so little information about how our prospects are doing.   I do wonder whether Fangraphs, BA or someone is allowed to attend some of the Fall Instructs and toss us a bone or two of objective opinion.  And hopefully Tony has his ear to the ground and will be able to pass along some tidbits eventually.  But this is all we’re going to get for now, and I’d rather have it than not.   

  11. 3 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

    I just don't see the logic in giving credit to a pitcher because the catcher held onto a foul tip.

    The rest of this makes a lot of sense.

    I think it’s probably more for pragmatic reasons.    Is there even data available for caught foul tips?    I don’t know that they are actually recorded, or if they are, how accurately they are recorded.    

  12. Everything is sunshine and roses with our new draftees who are playing at the Fall Instructs (per Matt Blood, via Roch).


    “Jordan Westburg has been really impressive. Just size, athleticism, skills, tools and makeup. Looks great. A real exciting guy.

    “Hudson Haskin is a really good athlete, moves well. He’s pretty much what we heard about in terms of his scouting report. Just a really good all-around player. Servideo is a really, really nice defender and has got bat-to-ball skills and we’re going to keep working there. And the two high school kids are even better than I expected.

    “Coby Mayo, just big, strong, big-time power. He and Adley (Rutschman) can compete every day with exit velocities and power numbers. And Carter Baumler is an advanced high school kid. Really good athlete, delivery, demeanor, and above-average stuff. I saw him the other day for the first time against hitters and it was really exciting.”

    • Upvote 2

  13. Just a little further down this rabbit hole, about 19,000 players have played in MLB and about 110 (.0058) have had the last name Johnson.   That’s a much lower percentage (less than half) than the percentage of the general population named Johnson.   Part of the reason would be all the foreign players, probably none of whom are named Johnson.   Not sure what explains the rest.   

    Back to regular life now.   

  14. 38 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

    What difference does that make?

    Players have only recently gone from the KBO to MLB.  You are very unlikely to be named HS Kim if you do not come from Korea.

    The idea that multiple players from South Korea might be named Kim and have the same initials shouldn't be surprising.

    Here is the list, not a huge amount of name variance, for instance, every name listed starts with a consonant, of which Hangul only has 14. 


    Multiple David Johnsons is more notable.

    About 1.5% of people in the US have the last name Johnson.   About 2.4% of US males have the First name David.   So, figure .00036 chance that an American male is named David Johnson.    Sounds small, but with 165 mm American males, there are probably 59,000 David Johnsons roaming around the US today.   It’s certainly one of the most common names, but not that common.    The odds that two players in Orioles history would have that name are extremely small.    I don’t know how many players have played for the Orioles, but it’s probably under 2,000.

    • Upvote 1

  15. 16 hours ago, OFFNY said:

    [Frank] Robinson almost single-handedly won that game for the Orioles in that final inning, hustling from 1st base to 3rd base on a single in which he had no business doing so, and then doing the same thing by scoring on a Sac-Fly on a very shallow fly ball to centerfield ....... Robinson's hustle on both plays was the biggest factor as to why there would be a Game Seven played the next day (the Orioles had been down 3 games to 2 prior to that Game Six.)

    I was never prouder of Frank than on that day.   He was 36 years old and showing some signs of age, but he absolutely would not be denied.  

  16. 1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

    Yep...goes back to what I was saying in the other thread.

    I think people have a completely misconceived notion of how good back end starters have been for years.

    I find myself agreeing with you much more often since you returned to the site.   

    • Haha 1

  17. 1 hour ago, LookinUp said:

    I'm hopeful that our definition of mid-rotation is a much stronger pitcher than it has been for us in the past. These 4/5 types have been our 2's/3's, like Chris Tillman, for example. Not saying these guys will become as good as him at his best, but they might throw a whole lot of innings better than the mid case of Tillman's production.

    Tillman had a really nice 4.5 year window from June 2012 (was in the minors to start that year) through 2016.     In the 2012-16 window there were 163 pitchers who threw at least 400 innings, and Tillman ranked 63rd in that group with a 3.81 ERA.   His 844.2 innings pitched ranked 30th during that five year span.    I have a very hard time looking at those numbers and concluding that Tillman was not a 2/3 starter in that window.   The fact that he fell off a cliff after that doesn’t change that fact.   

    • Upvote 4

  18. 2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

    Last year, the average starter went just over 5 innings.  This year, it was just under 5 innings.

    Getting 5ish innings out of your 5th starter puts you ahead of the game.

    I can’t find anything on average ERA but the last time I saw it, I think it was in the 5-5.5 range.

    I think Akin can be better than that

    This year was anomalous because the 28-man rosters allowed teams to throw more guys into the bullpen and yank starters early without feeling much consequence in terms of long term impact on the bullpen arms.   I expect IP/start to rise next year when they go to 26-man rosters.   

    Average ERA for AL starters was 4.52, down from 4.76 last year.   

    I do think Akin will have a tough time getting through 6 IP due to pitch count issues, but 5 decent innings has value.   


  19. I think we know Lowther is 11, since he was going to be 10 before Tony had a change of heart and inserted Akin there.    I’m going with Diaz here purely because he’s the furthest along and has formerly been ranked higher than this.   

    • Upvote 1
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  20. 3 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

    He wasn't a high walk guy in the minors so I think this comes down a bit as he gets more comfortable in the majors. He nibbled a bit too much but as he gains confidence in the curveball and cutter I think we'll see those numbers come down.

    I think so too.    

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