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Frobby

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Posts posted by Frobby

  1. 1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

     

    I dunno, I'm thankful that I'm not in a position where I've gotta figure that out.

    I'm not a total purist but when people start mentioning things like moving the mound back...ehhh, I dunno.  You don't see the NBA raising the rim, the NFL making the field longer.  60 feet, 6 inches is sacrosanct, IMO.  

    I guess you’re too young to remember when the goalposts were at the front of the end zone.  Or when a jump shot from 24 feet was only worth 2 points.    

    • Upvote 1
  2. Sorry Philip, you’re just wrong in thinking that pace of play and length of games aren’t problems.   There’s a large segment of the potential fan base that think they are, and that’s enough.  And I’m not disagreeing that lack of action during play is also a problem.   We could argue over which is the biggest problem, but they’re all big enough where efforts should be made to solve them.  

    By the way, when there’s one Mike Hargrove, it’s not a problem.  When every hitter acts that way, yes it is a big problem. 
     

    • Upvote 1
  3. 7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

    Maybe..it depends on what else they do.

    Think of it this way.  
     

    Let’s say the Os signed Correa tomorrow to a 10/375 deal and then signed Freddie Freeman to a 6/180 deal.

    Thats roughly 70 million a year for 2 players starting in 2021.  
     

    How much is the rest of the roster going to make?  How much will the rest of the roster be in 3 years?  5 years?  
     

     

    I’m just not convinced either player will live up to his contract over the full period.   But in the next 2-3 years they both may.  Not sure if Texas has enough around them to go from 60 wins to a playoff team in that time frame, though I haven’t really studied their situation.  

  4. 1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

    I would have thought 4-5 years for Semien but maybe at a higher AAV than what we got.

    Seager?  I would have thought 6-8 years at close to 30M a year.

    They blew past those numbers.

    They’ll be sorry — eventually.   Unless the whole salary structure blows up.

    • Upvote 1
  5. So, I didn’t know much about this player so I looked him up.   I don’t know if I’ve ever seen a player whose defensive metrics diverge so much.   Rdrs (which feeds into rWAR) rated him +10 and Rtot had him at +13, both of which are excellent.   UZR, which feeds into fWAR, has him at +1.2, solid but nothing special.    But then OAA has him at -7, in the 4th percentile.   That’s absolutely terrible.   So what are we to make of the guy?   I gather that Philip thinks he’s a plus defender.   

    One thing we know for sure, he’s a .670 OPS career hitter in 1523 at bats.   And that stinks.   I’d probably rather play Mateo or Gutierrez, neither of whom has hit much in the majors but seem to have more room for improvement 
     

    • Upvote 1
  6. 07

    JWR: I love baseball and don’t want to be THAT guy but still think that 3 1/2 hour baseball games suck.  I analogize it to movies, where I have a strong preference for movies in the 2 hour range.  Does my analogy work for you?

    1:08

    Kevin Goldstein: I get it. I’m fine with a 3.5 hour game if it’s 11-10 and full of drama. It’s the 4-2 3.5 hour game that’s a problem. Honestly, I think a pitch clock fixes everything in terms of game pace. I was at the biggest mess of an AFL game a couple of weeks ago. 20+ runs, tons of errors, walks all over the place, multiple mid-inning pitching changes. But also a pitch clock. Game took 3:15.

    1:12

    Guest: Whether it’s a game or a movie, I’m happy to watch something that’s long if it’s a good product.

    1:12

    Kevin Goldstein: I agree but a 4-1 game that takes 3.5 hours without much action is not a good product.

    https://blogs.fangraphs.com/kevin-goldstein-fangraphs-chat-11-29-2021/

  7. 5 hours ago, Yossarian said:

    That had to be the worst product placement case in history.  You talk about a damaging reputation hit that Kool-Aid still can't shake this many years later.  How do you distance yourself from such a thing?

    Fits in the category of “any publicity is good publicity.”   Even false publicity in this case.  Everyone knows what Kool-Aid is.   

  8. 18 minutes ago, now said:

    Yes, it's self-evident that defense helps pitching; but so does offense. Ideally, of course, you want both. But when it comes to choosing between them (avg. defense and plus offense, or vice versa), I believe it's no contest, that offense is far more impactful. When I used to play a lot of Strat-O-Matic and other sims, I experimented on that very question, when making roster and lineup decisions, and the results were conclusive that you go with the Westburgs over the Greniers. You can laugh at this Mickey Mouse science, and talk about the value of Belanger, but I'd wager a proper analysis shows the same conclusion, to give offense the higher weight in overall player value. Now, the best strategy might not favor a blanket rule but do what the great Oriole teams did: put great defense up the middle and "cannons at the corners."

     

    The main reason WAR exists is to balance offense and defense in a scientific way rather than just making broad statements that one is more important than the other.  But your point is correct.   Even a bad major league fielder makes almost all the routine plays, so the run impact of a good fielder vs. a bad one is not as big as the impact of a good hitter vs. a bad one.   There are only about 5-6 plays a game where the skill of the fielder really comes into play, but the skill of the batter matters in every at bat.   

    • Upvote 1
  9. 1 minute ago, Philip said:

    I freely admit that I was incorrect, but as I said it was an educated guess, but it doesn’t change my point which is that hitting is hard, hitting has always been harder than pitching which is why the best in the world still fail most of the time.

     So yes I was incorrect, but that was irrelevant. but the point remains valid. And everything else I said, God bless you Frobby, is also valid.

     

    I agree that the inaccuracy doesn’t affect your argument that hitting is hard.  I just couldn’t let it stand though.   I couldn’t let Ty Cobb, Rogers Hornsby, Nap Lajoie, George Sisler and Shoeless Joe Jackson roll over in their graves, among others.    Even Ted himself wouldn’t like to get credit that wasn’t due.   

    I think your views on what needs to be fixed are somewhat chauvinistic.   E.g., you don’t mind watching a baseball game that takes 3.5 hours to play, so to you that’s not something that needs to be fixed.   Well, there are literally millions of people who don’t watch because of the time commitment and especially the time that games end on weeknights.   And pace of play is also a huge problem that has turned off a lot of fans.  Just because those things don’t bother you doesn’t mean they shouldn’t be addressed to increase/maintain the fan base.    I’m all in favor of increasing the amount of action in the game, but if that action occurs after 11 pm Eastern, I’m probably asleep.    
     

    • Upvote 1
  10. 34 minutes ago, Yardball85 said:

    Literally half a billion dollars to the middle infield.  (325+175) - absolutely bananas.  Might bite them in the long haul, but for now, must be real fun to be a Rangers fan. 

    Oh, it’s going to bite them big time I think.    And maybe sooner than you think.  However, they have a young team with a low payroll and negligible long term commitments before these two deals.  

  11. 9 minutes ago, survivedc said:

    Like it or not, baseball will need to do something to keep younger fans interested in the game and the pitch clock seems to be the perfect solution. 30 seconds (sometimes) between pitches makes it so easy to pick up your phone and do some scrolling.

    Further, it’s not as if reducing time between pitches fundamentally alters the game. In the 60’s and 70’s plenty of pitchers worked much quicker. 

    I think the batters are equally to blame, maybe more so.   Everyone’s Mike Hargrove now, stepping out after every pitch, fiddling with their batting gloves, etc.   I once proposed having them wear shock collars that go off if they step outside the box during an at bat, but the union didn’t like my idea.   

  12. 7 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

    I'm fine with strikeouts.  I think a number of strikeouts are really entertaining to watch.

    I just want the pitcher to throw the damn ball and the hitter to stay in the box.

    Well, I want those things too.   But I also want fewer strikeouts.  It’s very hard to accomplish that though.   I don’t see a solution other than moving the mound back, which I can’t say I like either.   

  13. 5 minutes ago, Philip said:

    Think about it, who is the highest batting average in history, 406 Ted Williams right? 

    There’s so much I could say in response to your long post, but I couldn’t let this misstatement of baseball history get buried.   

    Ted Williams was the last .400 hitter, but his .406 was not the highest in baseball history.   Depending on who you are including (e.g., Negro Leagues) and when you are starting (pre- or post-1900), there are any number of players who hit higher than .406.   BB-ref now ranks Williams at 42nd on the all time list, and even if you stripped out the Negro Leagues and pre-1900 players, you’d have at least 7 seasons where someone outhit .406.

    https://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/batting_avg_season.shtml


     

  14. 10 minutes ago, Philip said:

    A sideline video of a coach is not gameplay, a home run replay is gameplay, and yes there’s not a damn thing more boring in all sports then the replay of a home run. Most of the time you can’t even see the ball in the view screen.

    Yes they replay the video after the play And I can endure that, but what is it? you see the swing, you see the look, you see the crowd reaction, A disgusted look on the pitchers face, the dugout. You may see the camera panning across the crowd in an arc, but you’ll have to take on faith that somewhere in that shot is a white little ball traveling to a destination in the stands at somewhere.

    Boring.

    On the other hand, I’ll tell you, there was a double play in the Division series with the Tigers, started by Flaherty, swinging to Schoop from his knees, who pivoted on one foot to fling to Davis. That never gets old.

    They show replays of about half the pitches these days, even those that don’t result in an out or a hit.   I don’t find those less boring than watching a home run replay.   What I’d like is for there to be an insufficient amount of time between pitches to even consider showing a replay.   


    And sure, a great defensive play is more inherently interesting to watch than a home run.   The more strikeouts there are, the less opportunity there is to see a great defensive play, or a bad one.   

  15. 21 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

    Wow, I thought Robbie Ray was returning to the Jays.  

    He was someone I wanted us to consider this offseason, before he won the Cy Young and drove his price up.  I don't know if I like him at 5/115.  I think I might actually prefer the Gausman deal, strictly because Ray smacks of a guy who had a career year in a contract season.  Gausman has been good for two years (albeit a shortened 2020 season) in SF.  Can Gausman keep whatever magic he found in SF?  Remains to be seen.  Same with Ray.  

    Really interesting offseason.

    I thought you were over it already.  😎

    I think the impending contract dispute is really accelerating the moves for a lot of teams.   I can’t ever remember this many significant deals happening before the winter meetings.   Seems like a lot of teams want their key pieces in place before the music stops.   And heavy emphasis on the pitchers.   

    As to Gausman vs. Ray, I’d probably go with the latter because of what he was able to do in the AL East.
     

  16. 2 hours ago, LookinUp said:

    Yeah. I thought the command piece wasn't very good.

     

    [Edit: e.g., not very inciteful.]

    Well, the article wasn’t really about command, it was about Bautista and Gillaspie.   But issues about how to address Bautista’s command did come up.   

    It’s ludicrous for anyone to think that any professional baseball team does not have programs in place to work on command.   Of course they do.   
     

  17. 2 hours ago, Philip said:

    In all sports there is absolutely nothing more boring than the replay of a home run.

    Oh, I can think of a few dozen things more boring.   Looking at sideline shots of a football coach talking on his headset.   Teams that are hopelessly behind in a basketball game committing fouls in the hope the other team will miss their foul shots.   Watching football referees watch a replay.   I could go on.   

    Given that the average baseball game only has 2-3 home runs total between the two teams, I can tolerate the replays of those while we’re awaiting the next batter.   

    I’d just like to see fewer strikeouts.   The increase is driven by higher velocity/frequent pitching changes to a fresher arm.   If nothing is done to change those causes, the trend will continue.   

     

    • Upvote 1
  18. 2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

    They had to do it to convince him to come back to the east coast.  He wanted to go out west.

    Cohen is going to learn that you can’t buy a title though. 

    Still, he has arguably the 2 best pitchers in baseball in his rotation now.

    You might be able to buy an NL East division title right now.   Looks like he intends to find out.  

  19. 3 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

    My understanding is upon death, the inheritance (ie the assets) itself is taxed.

    I know someone who has checked into this and is moving to Florida because of it. (They don’t have the tax there)

    Federal estate taxes (paid by the estate) apply in all 50 states.   Currently only apply to estates over $11.7 mm.   Only 6 states have an inheritance tax (paid by the recipient), while 12 states plus DC have an estate tax (paid from the estate).   Only Maryland has both.   The Maryland estate tax applies to estates of more than $5 mm.   The inheritance tax only applies to certain recipients, and excludes spouses, children, parents, siblings and grandparents/grandchildren, plus charities.   So, it’s not much of a factor for most people.   

  20. 1 hour ago, Philip said:

    That has nothing to do with velocity. It’s not illogical, but command and velocity are two different things, especially when achieving more velocity involves sacrificing command.

    Nobody said it had to do with velocity.  SG was saying maybe they should have a program addressing command, not just a program dealing with velocity.   So, I was pointing out that Holt already had answered some questions about command training.   Two articles, both stemming from the same interview.   

    • Upvote 1
  21. 14 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

    MLB teams spending money like water isn't really helping MLB's case.  O's are one of the only teams that have been frugal.  Even Tampa Bay signed Franco for close to $200 million.  Texas just spent $175 million on a 31 year old.  I can't wait to see what MLB rewards Baltimore with.  Baltimore can't get an All Star game or MLB support for the MASN dispute, but surely MLB is saving a big reward for Baltimore's loyalty. 

    Why would the O’s get MLB’s support for the MASN dispute?   

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