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Posts posted by Frobby

  1. 2 hours ago, RZNJ said:

    I agree in part.  Fastball and breaking pitch slightly in Kremer's favor.  However, Akin at times showed a plus changeup.  I don't think Kremer's is even in the same zip code but I didn't see much of either so I'm all ears.

    I really like the cutter I saw from Kremer.    I think that’s his third pitch.   Didn’t really see him throw a change much , those I confess I haven’t looked at any breakdowns of how often he threw his various pitches.  

  2. Zack Britton had a nice ALCS, pitching 4 scoreless innings and striking out 6 while yielding only 1 hit and 2 walks.  In the wildcard series he threw 1.1 innings and yielded only two walks, but they both scored when the pitcher who followed (entering with 2 outs in the 7th) yielded a two run double.   Overall, a good postseason for Britton BUT THE YANKEES LOST!!!

  3. 18 minutes ago, OrioleDog said:


    THE BOARD now has BAL in a 9/10/11/12 tier at $255M in value give or take 5 either way, along with SEA/MIN/TOR.  Everyone else $273 and up, or $232  and down.

    The 40+ to 45 grade bumps for both SP only moved them individually from $3M to $4M.   This was my first time seeing the big spike in FG estimations when reaching the 50 FV level - I guess its perspective is, very broadly speaking, you are worthwhile or worthless.

    Among 45's, Longenhangen, bullish on Vavra, still has him ahead of both Akin/Kremer.

    He drops Baumann behind Akin, but still ahead of Kremer, and also has Kremer/Yusniel the "last" of the 45's, behind even Westburg/Stowers.

    I like Kremer a bit more than Akin.   Akin’s stuff is not quite as good, but he’s more deceptive.   But deception wears down as hitters become more looks.    Give me Kremer for the long run.   I like both, though.  

  4. Fun presentation.    A few other facts I dug up:

    1.   Other than that one season, Barajas threw out 31% of runners in the previous 13 seasons.

    2.   In 2012, runners attempted a steal once every 8.34 innings against Barajas.   In the previous 13 seasons, they attempted a steal once every 13.26 innings.

    So, that supports the theory that the problem was the pitchers, not Barrajas.    But then there’s this:

    3.   The other Pirate catcher, Michael McKenry, threw out 17.6% of runners compared to Barajas’ 6.0%.    


    4.   Pitchers ran on McKenry even more than on Barajas, once every 8.20 innings.   

    Overall, I think the conclusion on the video that it was mostly the pitchers’ fault is pretty well supported, although watching it, it sure looked like Barajas’ arm was shot.   Lots of slow throws, lots of bounced throws, lots of wild throws, lots of double clutches before throwing.    And, some non-throws.    He sure looked pretty bad to me.   

  5. MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo on Rutschman:

    “Stop us if you’ve heard this one, but Rutschman is really, really good at baseball. In these kinds of stories, an attempt is made to spread the love around, but when a guy is the best player at the alternate training site, he’s the best player. And Rutschman, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2019 Draft, was the best player.“

    And on Henderson:

    “He was the most exciting guy in camp for me,” Blood said. “The guy worked really hard and he showed five tools. He’s facing Double-A, Triple-A, 4-A pitchers for the first time in his life. It was a challenge for him, and he caught up. By week three, he had caught up to the competition he was facing and he was one of the best guys there. The older guys really took notice and were impressed by him and were also helping him. And he played a nice shortstop, too.”


  6. On 9/2/2020 at 10:09 AM, Number5 said:

    Campaneris always seemed to be a thorn in the Orioles side.  I don't know his stats vs. us as compared to other teams, but he always seemed to me to be a guy that hurt us.

    Ask and ye shall be answered:

    Career stat line: .259/.311/.342

    Vs. Orioles: .270/.317/.350

    Not particularly compelling.   What you are probably remembering is the 1973 ALCS, where he crushed us to the tune of .333/.391/.667 and had 2 HR, 3 RBI, and 3 SB, including beating us with a walk-off homer in the 11th inning of game 3.    Then in the opening game of the 1974 ALCS he went 3 for 4 with 3 RBI.    But we won that game, and he never had another hit in that series (.343 OPS overall).    He was bad against us in the ‘71.ALCS, too (.417 OPS).

    Just to show how different the game was in those days, the pitcher who yielded Campaneris’ 11th inning walk-off in Game 3 of the ‘73 ALCS was the starting pitcher, Mike Cuellar.

    Here’s the most memorable moment from Campaneris’ career IMO: 





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  7. On 10/7/2020 at 6:41 AM, wildcard said:

    #6 Gunnar Henderson #6 45 FV

    #7 Jordan Westburg # 11 45

    #13 Terrin Vavra #7 45

    #16 Adam Hall # 17 40+

    #20 Anthony Servideo #15 40+

    #24 Coby Mayo #18 40+

    #25 Rylan Bannon #21 40

    #30 Cadyn Grenier #19 40

    2019 4th rounder  Joey Ortiz #34 35+

    Darell  Hernaiz #30 40

    Mason McCoy

    Richie Martin

    Erison Placencia

    Just thought I’d use this to indicate where Fangraphs rates these players, and their scouting grade.

    Bonus player: 

    Ramon Urías, #28 40 FV

  8. Credit to Can_of_corn, who posted this link in one of the Minors forum links.    I thought it deserved some play here, since it discusses players who have had their major league debut but haven’t lost rookie status.


    Pretty optimistic take on our guys.   I was a bit surprised to see Urías mentioned, but here’s his writeup:

    “I buy that second baseman Ramón Urías has above-average feel to hit that makes him an above-replacement player with some sneaky trade value. Even at age 26, Urías has some roster flexibility thanks to two remaining option years and a service time clock that just started. He’s not a good defender and doesn’t have much power, but he puts the bat head on the ball consistently and can play second base, though not especially well. He’d be an interesting, small-trade depth target for a contender this winter, similar to Mark Mathias last year.”




  9. 6 hours ago, orioles22 said:

    I didn't think of it that way. Good point. He should be in high A and maybe make it to AA by midseason. I wonder if players will move more quickly if 2021 after the missed season.

    Probably.    I also think there will be a lot of competition in spring camp and we’ll see a lot of cuts and some surprising placements.  

  10. 58 minutes ago, murph said:

    I still want the Padres in the World Series.  Even with maniac Manny. 

    Well I hate to tell you this, but the Padres already lost their series to the Dodgers.   

  11. 3 hours ago, survivedc said:

    It is different, don’t be obtuse. A batter celebrating something he personally accomplished is different than a pitcher celebrating by himself after serving up a tater that was only saved by a great catch by his team mate. 

    Yeah, I prefer the latter.   

  12. 6 hours ago, Philip said:

    My query was actually directed at you. I thought Drungo also is up on the minors,nand doubtless many others I miss at the moment, but you’re king of research and stats so I (cough cough) nominate you to replace monsieur Luc and help Tony with the labor.

    And of course, speaking French will help you with all our Parisian Scouts!

    Ranking the minor leaguers isn’t mostly about stats.    You have to be able to watch a young player and pick out really nuanced things that tell you about their chances of becoming good major leaguers.    It’s totally outside my wheelhouse. I do form loose impressions of the minor leaguers based on stats, but honestly there are dozens of posters who have a better grasp on minor league talent than I do.   

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  13. 2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

    I tried to find a list of all time at bats but couldn’t find anything more than the top 10 or so.

    I would guess that Manny has had more at bats than at least 80% of all MLers ever.

    Easily.   First of all, everyone who played before 1969 played no more than 7 postseason games in a year, as opposed to the multiple rounds they have today.   Second of all, 80% of players don’t have as long a career as Manny’s already had (8+ seasons).   

  14. 1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

    That’s all well and good.

    I still stand by the thought that 122 plate appearances is a solid sample size for the POSTSEASON to be able to say he has failed so far. 

    It’s not a terribly low or high number, I’d say.    It’s almost twice as many PA as Adam Jones (.413 OPS) had in the postseason (65).   It’s about 1/6th of what Derek Jeter had (734).  Jeter, by the way, is the only player to have had as many postseason at bats as a player typically would get over one full season of regular season play.

    I also think it’s true (haven’t looked in a few years) that generally the postseason favors the pitchers.    So most hitters are going to do a bit worse than their regular season stats.   

  15. 48 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

    I'll agree that he's been poor so far, I just don't think it predicts what he will do in the future.

    Agreed.   It’s no more indicative than 122 PA during the season would be, and arguably less so.   But people get judged by how they performed on the big stage, and so far he hasn’t done particularly well.   

  16. 4 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

    This is the biggest point here.i don’t care if he acts up once in a while. It means he has fire in his belly. The fact that he disappears in the playoffs is the Manny problem.

    Similar to a certain Ravens QB that performs badly when the team is down or in the playoffs.

    To me he hasn’t had enough playoff experience to draw any grand conclusions.  SSS and all that.  

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  17. 4 hours ago, wildcard said:

    Why?  Looking at the way Elias has handled Mountcastle and now Diaz. A late season promotion in 2021 for a highly rated position player seems unlikely to me.   If the team is in contention in August then maybe they would do what happened to Manny but failing a surprise playoff year  I don't expect to see AR in 2021 at the major league level.

    1.   I agree that Rutschman is unlikely to get called up in 2021.   Like you, I do not expect it.    What I said was that I wouldn’t rule it out.   

    2.   If we buy into even half the hype, Rutschman > Mountcastle + Diaz combined.   He has to prove that on the field.  If he does that in a very clear way next year, I could see him getting called up.   Not likely, but possible.   

    3.   I have zero problem with how the O’s handled Mountcastle or Diaz, and I doubt I’ll have a problem with how they handle Rutschman.   But I’d love to see him truly dominate and make it very hard for them to justify keeping him down.    In my opinion, Diaz really hasn’t made that strong a case, and though Mountcastle did make the case with his bat, there were enough holes in his game (plate discipline and defense) to make a plausible case for polishing him up a bit before calling him up.   Did service time also play a role?   I’ll say probably yes, but I don’t think his case for an earlier call-up was irrefutable.   I’d like to see Rutschman make that case.   

  18. 1 hour ago, Philip said:

    Tony, that’s a lot of work, I really hope now that Luc is gone you have someone else to help you share the labor. I would really be happy to help if I knew anything, but I know nothing not even where to look.

    Sacre bleu!    Do we have any Francophone prospects for “Luc” to weigh in on?

    I’ll be interested to hear how Tony put this list together.    It’s really a challenge when there was no minor league season, a very short high school/college season for the players just drafted, and quite a few players who we received in trades but have never played an official game in the Orioles’ organization.   Hopefully Tony has some sources who got to see some of what went on at Bowie camp, as well as spring training.    And of course, we got a sneak peek at Mountcastle, Akin, Kremer and Zimmermann against major league competition.    As always, I’m really looking forward to seeing and debating the list.    

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  19. 2 hours ago, scOtt said:

    I'm torn... I miss Manny, EVERY day. He's a special hitter and he's Brooks Robinson at 3B (and I DON'T say that lightly!)

    And yet... since we had him... And much more since he's been gone... Manny is a dumpster fire. I TRY to root for him... but he makes it harder and harder to do. Does more st00pid sh!t every series.... Maybe if he hit more than .200+ in the post season it would be easier.......

    He had some outbursts with us, but I feel he’s been much worse since we traded him.   Of course, I’m not watching him play every day, so I probably only see him when he’s done something great or terrible.   

    I also think the game has headed this way.    Behavior that was unacceptable 20 years ago is commonplace now.    I’m an old fogey so I preferred the old school way where players didn’t get overly demonstrative or overtly try to show up their opponent.    But, I guess younger folks find this appealing or at least exciting.   

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