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Frobby

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Posts posted by Frobby


  1. Honestly, I couldn’t care less.    I’ve waited this long, I can wait another week to watch some baseball.    It will be interesting to see (1) how much baseball I end up watching in this shortened season, and (2) what the TV ratings are like this year both at the local level and on nationally televised games.    Are people baseball-starved, or have they found new ways to spend their summer evenings that they like just as well or better?    I’ll admit, I miss baseball, but not as much as I thought I would.   


  2. 19 minutes ago, scOtt said:

    It wasn't just Nick's arm... He played those balls SO WELL off the scoreboard. He barehanded that one in the video. He was just so lightning quick to come up throwing, and had a good enough arm to make a good accurate throw. He had that play wired!

    He had tremendous hands, and always knew where to throw.    Not fast but he had everything else you want in a RF.


  3. 19 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

    I had a CT scan yesterday, my sinus cavities are completely blocked.  One nostril is 100% blocked.

    If I can wear the mask I don't see why anyone else has an excuse.

    Wow, sounds uncomfortable.   Hope it clears up soon. 

    • Thanks 2

  4. 7 hours ago, atomic said:

    Maryland seems to be going up again.  Down the beach this week.  Mask rules clearly not being followed in Maryland at all here.Delaware followed very strictly. I see big spikes coming back.  I am not sure why it is so hard to wear a mask.  

    Yep, Maryland’s cases have gone up two weeks in a row, and not by a little.    Something like 2400/wk to 2800/wk to 3400/wk.    Hopefully we’re not in for a Florida/Texas/Arizona type spike, but we’re heading in the wrong direction again.   

    Couldn’t agree more about the masks.    It’s not super-comfortable, but it’s such a small sacrifice to make when you are around other people.    
     

     

     


  5. On 7/9/2020 at 10:31 PM, Frobby said:

     

    I’d guess Texas will pass Maryland in COVID deaths within 2 weeks, and maybe 1 week.    As of today it’s 3,228 for Maryland and 2,965 for Texas, but Texas had more deaths yesterday than Maryland has had in the last week, and that trend is likely to continue.   

    It took 6 days.   As of this morning, Texas 3,362, Maryland 3,334.      Texas will leave Maryland in the dust now.    


  6. 34 minutes ago, SteveA said:

    Onbase percentage was first a major league stat in 1984.

    But in the pre-internet era, you really couldn't get the onbase percentage of a player until the final season stats were compiled and printed in a postseason book that came out during the winter.   During the season, you could only get player stats for all the players from a publication such as the Sporting News, and I don't believe they listed players onbase percentage.   Walks were not in box scores until some point in the early 90s.

    Now teams could subscribe to a pay service from a company like Elias that could provide them with onbase percentage, but there was no way for the average fan who didn't pay for that service to know the onbase percentage of players around the league.   Not until January or so when they bought the publication that had detailed stats for last year that included little used stats like onbase percentage.

    Even after that stuff became available on the internet and newspaper box scores started including walks, most fans / reporters /  broadcasters paid little percentage to onbase percentage.   It would get mentioned every once in a while.   Probably some forward thinking GMs paid a lot of attention to it, and the relatively small community of  early Sabermetricians (people who read Bill James Abestract every year or the early Baseball Prospectus) started paying attention to it in the mid 90s.

    So yeah, there was a time when onbase percentage was little know to all but a very small number of people.   The Sunday paper would list all the stats for hitters with enough at bats, ordered by batting average.   They'd list average, RBIs, HRs.    You would see leaderboards for those stats plus doubles, triples, and a few others.   If you subscribed to the Sporting News you would see more, but I'm not sure if you would see the onbase percentage for every player.   You might have seen a walk total for every player so if you had a calculator you could compute the OBP yourself.

    I realize I’m not the average fan, but OBP was a stat I was well aware of long before 1984.     And while it’s not exact, if you just calculated H+BB/AB+BB you’d be within 5 points of OBP more than 90% of the time.  

    I wrote a paper in college (1979 graduate) that discussed how tesm BA, OBP and  SLG correlated with runs scored.    And I still remember the professor commented that there were people out there writing much more sophisticated analyses than the one I’d done.   Ouch!
     

     

    • Upvote 3
    • Thanks 1

  7. My main concern about signing Puig is strategic.    What do we really gain by signing him?     He certainly would be an above average player compared to the overall talent on the team — if things go well, maybe he fills the hole created by Mancini’s absence.    But I’m more inclined to see what some of our younger players can do, even though it’s unlikely they’d match Puig’s production.    

    • Upvote 2

  8. 3 hours ago, Beef Supreme said:

    Yeah!:skeletor:

    Though I have been hoping 3.5. 

    5 WAR would tie him with 2019 Pete Alonso...who hit 53 HRs! Mountcastle would be a Top 10 outfielder with 5 WAR. If he has one year of 5 WAR he would be on his way to being an Oriole legend. If he has seven years of @ 3 WAR/year, totaling 20+ WAR, would he not also qualify as an Oriole legend?

    When I say a 2-3 WAR guy, I mean a guy who can sustain that level for a few years. It’s not as easy as it seems.    Trey Mancini was worth 3.5 rWAR last year with an .899 OPS.     


  9. I don’t really put stock in a handful of intrasquad games and some complimentary remarks from the manager or some coaches.    I think our pitching staff will probably be a little better than last year, but only because it would almost be impossible to be worse.   Technically, I guess the 2017 starters were a little worse (5.70 ERA) than the 2019 starters (5.57 ERA), but either of those figures is so pathetic that you’d think any random staff could beat it.    


  10. 10 hours ago, SteveA said:

    And blackouts are so much more ridiculous in a season where in person attendance will be zero or negligible.  It's utterly absurd.

    They probably aren’t thinking about offering a service that’s good only for one, two month season that they’d then need to revoke when fans are back in their seats next year.    But arguably that would be a smart way to test it.   


  11. On 7/8/2020 at 3:40 PM, spiritof66 said:

     

    I looked at the top executives of MLB and couldn't figure it out.  https://www.mlb.com/official-information/executives/

    But a quick glance shows an impressive diversity among MLB's top eight executives. All white males. But just to judge from their last names, they appear to be descended from several different European ethnic groups. Their hair color runs the gamut from dark brown to brown to gray to white (no facial hair), with varying degrees of baldness -- and one has no hair at all! Some of the eight went to law school, and some apparently didn't. Now that's diversity for you.

    Seriously, if this Website listing is an up-to-date presentation of the top guys running MLB, this is an absolute disgrace, and just one more indication of how the game is in serious trouble.

    I don’t know what the pecking order is, but would Frank Robinson and Bob Watson have qualified for top 8 when they were MLB executives?

    Kim Ng is probably the highest ranking female.    Her title is Sr. VP of Baseball Ops.


  12. 3 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

    In all of MLB history there have only been five seasons where a 1B/LF/DH with less than 30 walks and less than 10 steals had a 5+ WAR.  And only 13 with four+ wins.

                                                                                                                                                   
    Rk              Player WAR/pos BB SB Year Age  Tm Lg   G  PA  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI IBB  SO HBP SH SF GDP CS   BA  OBP  SLG   OPS         Pos
    1          Felipe Alou     6.3 24  5 1966  31 ATL NL 154 706 666 122 218 32  6 31  74   6  51  12  2  2  11  7 .327 .361 .533  .894    *378/956
    2          Joe Medwick     6.0 30  4 1935  23 STL NL 154 670 634 132 224 46 13 23     126  59   4     2     15 .353 .386 .576  .962          *7
    3         George Burns     5.9 23  8 1918  25 PHA AL 130 545 505  61 178 22  9  6      70  25   8            8 .352 .390 .467  .857       *3/79
    4      Garret Anderson     5.1 30  6 2002  30 ANA AL 158 678 638  93 195 56  3 29 123  11  80   0  0 10  11  4 .306 .332 .539  .871      *78D/H
    5      Charlie Hickman     5.1 15  9 1902  26 TOT AL 130 564 534  74 193 36 13 11     110  15   7            8 .361 .387 .539  .926      *37/41

    To be a 5 or 6 win player In today's offensive environment Mountcastle is going to have to OPS something like .950 (which will require hitting well over .300) unless he unexpectedly is a really good LFer.

    Has anyone suggested he’d be a 5-6 WAR player?     I’ll be pretty darned happy if he manages to be a 2-3 WAR guy.   

    • Upvote 3

  13. 15 hours ago, OsEatAlEast said:

    It might be a pipe dream for O's fans to want those kind of pitchers in my estimation. I could very well be blowing smoke at you but I don't know if you'll ever see guys that can strike out close to 250 in an O's uniform. I think there is a reason why Erik Bedard is the all time O's leader with 221. Not necessarily saying it can't happen but it would take getting a guy like the guys you listed but with more stamina. With the exception of Ryan(who only had one of his six 300 k seasons while playing his home games in the state of Texas) and Walter Johnson most of those guys pitched a good portion of their careers in climates that were cooler/dryer than in Baltimore. Which is one of the most hot/humid places professional baseball is played in North America. I think we don't get said power pitchers because the guys that have that potential flame out in late July in an O's uniform.

    I'd love to be wrong about my assumption though. But I just don't think we'll ever see a great power pitcher don an O's uniform. No matter how good our scouting dept or ownership group is.

    Offhand I’m not inclined to buy this logic without seeing some detailed evidence.   I don’t see why power pitchers would flame out in a hot humid climate more than other types of pitchers.    Ryan, Gibson, Richard, Scherzer, Strasburg, Smoltz, and Darvish all topped 250 strikeouts in locales that were at least as hot and humid as Baltimore.     You’ve been listening to Rick Dempsey make excuses for our pitchers for too long.    


  14. 5 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

    How much did it help Means?

    I think Mountcastle could have benefited from facing major league pitching, perhaps it would have helped him realize that just because you can make contact with a pitch it doesn't mean you should swing at it.  He also could have used more reps in the field.

    Going into the offseason with that kind of experience to build off of couldn't have hurt.

    As for the extra control? 

    Will he:

    Still be a major league player?

    Still an Oriole?

    Worth paying Arb 4?

    Not playing under an extension?

    All of the above assume no changes in the CBA.  I think the odds are pretty remote the O's see any benefit down the line.

    How much did a September call-up help Schoop?    He made the OD roster the next year and put up a mighty .598 OPS.    Of course, his 4th year of Arb wouldn’t have mattered, the way things worked out.   But I’d still say he would have had more trade value in July 2018 if teams had an extra year of potential control to play with.

    I don’t want to belabor the point.    I’m sure with some thought I could come up with 25 examples of players who struggled the year after a September call-up but turned out to be good players, and 25 examples of guys who did really well after a September call-up.    None of that is going to change anyone’s mind.     At the end of the day, it’s unprovable whether a call-up would have benefited Mountcastle, and we won’t know for 6 years whether an extra year of control would have been important or not.    At some point we just need to move on and stop obsessing with this point.   
     

    • Thanks 1

  15. 2 hours ago, backwardsk said:

    Texas has less total deaths at the moment than Maryland.  But MD took an early hit.  Texas has had 60% more deaths since June 1.  Do you see TX having less deaths than MD when we look at this a month or six weeks from now?

     

    1 hour ago, eddie83 said:

    I don’t know how it will play out.

    Once again, Texas has a population that is 29M. Maryland is at 6M. That can’t be ignored.  

    I’d guess Texas will pass Maryland in COVID deaths within 2 weeks, and maybe 1 week.    As of today it’s 3,228 for Maryland and 2,965 for Texas, but Texas had more deaths yesterday than Maryland has had in the last week, and that trend is likely to continue.   And, I do think the shortage of hospital beds and other things in certain parts of Texas is likely to result in some deaths that might have been avoided.    

    No question that Texas deaths per capita is only a fraction of Maryland’s.   I hope and pray they don’t get to Maryland’s level in that respect.  
     


  16. 52 minutes ago, SteveA said:

    Isn't there a third possibility?

    Maybe they felt Martin was a little better than Kjerstad but that bei g able to get the overslot guys they got in the 4th and 5th more than compensated for that difference.

    This is the most likely thing.    Though it’s also possible Elias thought there would be a good overslot candidate available at 30, and it didn’t play out that way.    


  17. 3 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

    I prefer interesting outfield dimensions based on constraints imposed on the architecture like the shape of the lot.  It's pretty artificial when you have 11 weird angles in the outfield fence in a park that looks like a Zeppelin hangar stuck in the middle of 11,000 acres of parking.

    Oh, and so much for my idea of bigger parks to encourage contact.  This one looks like another bandbox with short alleys.  Every new park should be at least 350-390-430-390-350.

    The angles may be artificial, but they’re still fun.    I agree with you that overall I’d like it better if the fences were deeper.   

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