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Everything posted by Frobby

  1. I realize I’m not the average fan, but OBP was a stat I was well aware of long before 1984. And while it’s not exact, if you just calculated H+BB/AB+BB you’d be within 5 points of OBP more than 90% of the time. I wrote a paper in college (1979 graduate) that discussed how tesm BA, OBP and SLG correlated with runs scored. And I still remember the professor commented that there were people out there writing much more sophisticated analyses than the one I’d done. Ouch!
  2. My main concern about signing Puig is strategic. What do we really gain by signing him? He certainly would be an above average player compared to the overall talent on the team — if things go well, maybe he fills the hole created by Mancini’s absence. But I’m more inclined to see what some of our younger players can do, even though it’s unlikely they’d match Puig’s production.
  3. When I say a 2-3 WAR guy, I mean a guy who can sustain that level for a few years. It’s not as easy as it seems. Trey Mancini was worth 3.5 rWAR last year with an .899 OPS.
  4. I don’t really put stock in a handful of intrasquad games and some complimentary remarks from the manager or some coaches. I think our pitching staff will probably be a little better than last year, but only because it would almost be impossible to be worse. Technically, I guess the 2017 starters were a little worse (5.70 ERA) than the 2019 starters (5.57 ERA), but either of those figures is so pathetic that you’d think any random staff could beat it.
  5. Which we got back the next year when he signed with Seattle, and turned into Mountcastle.
  6. That seems like a rather odd stat for you to cite to question why Iglesias should bat 6th. OBP by batting order position in the AL in 2019): 5th: .321 6th: .321 7th: .307 8th: .306 9th: .287 Based on that, a .315 OBP in the 6th slot is below average, but not terrible. .315 would have been 10th in the AL in the 6th spot last year, instead of .303 and 14th, which is where the Orioles were. A much bigger question would be Iglesias’ low SLG for the 6th slot — .407 last year (.371 career) for Iglesias overall, compared to .432 in the 6th slot for the AL. Iglesias’ SLG would have been 11th in the AL in the 6th spot, ahead of the Orioles’ 12th (.401).
  7. They probably aren’t thinking about offering a service that’s good only for one, two month season that they’d then need to revoke when fans are back in their seats next year. But arguably that would be a smart way to test it.
  8. Hyde suggests he might bat Iglesias 6th. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/sunday-notes-jose-iglesias-is-an-oriole-and-the-six-hole-fits-him-like-a-glove/ Another section of the same column has some quotes from O’Day about Britton.
  9. I don’t know what the pecking order is, but would Frank Robinson and Bob Watson have qualified for top 8 when they were MLB executives? Kim Ng is probably the highest ranking female. Her title is Sr. VP of Baseball Ops.
  10. Has anyone suggested he’d be a 5-6 WAR player? I’ll be pretty darned happy if he manages to be a 2-3 WAR guy.
  11. Offhand I’m not inclined to buy this logic without seeing some detailed evidence. I don’t see why power pitchers would flame out in a hot humid climate more than other types of pitchers. Ryan, Gibson, Richard, Scherzer, Strasburg, Smoltz, and Darvish all topped 250 strikeouts in locales that were at least as hot and humid as Baltimore. You’ve been listening to Rick Dempsey make excuses for our pitchers for too long.
  12. How much did a September call-up help Schoop? He made the OD roster the next year and put up a mighty .598 OPS. Of course, his 4th year of Arb wouldn’t have mattered, the way things worked out. But I’d still say he would have had more trade value in July 2018 if teams had an extra year of potential control to play with. I don’t want to belabor the point. I’m sure with some thought I could come up with 25 examples of players who struggled the year after a September call-up but turned out to be good players, and 25 examples of guys who did really well after a September call-up. None of that is going to change anyone’s mind. At the end of the day, it’s unprovable whether a call-up would have benefited Mountcastle, and we won’t know for 6 years whether an extra year of control would have been important or not. At some point we just need to move on and stop obsessing with this point.
  13. I’d guess Texas will pass Maryland in COVID deaths within 2 weeks, and maybe 1 week. As of today it’s 3,228 for Maryland and 2,965 for Texas, but Texas had more deaths yesterday than Maryland has had in the last week, and that trend is likely to continue. And, I do think the shortage of hospital beds and other things in certain parts of Texas is likely to result in some deaths that might have been avoided. No question that Texas deaths per capita is only a fraction of Maryland’s. I hope and pray they don’t get to Maryland’s level in that respect.
  14. This is the most likely thing. Though it’s also possible Elias thought there would be a good overslot candidate available at 30, and it didn’t play out that way.
  15. The angles may be artificial, but they’re still fun. I agree with you that overall I’d like it better if the fences were deeper.
  16. Here’s a nice interview of O’Day discussing his theory of pitching. Cerebral guy. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/darren-oday-talks-pitching/
  17. You’d need a lot more information. Even so, if it’s a true statement I’d say it’s somewhat meaningful. But it doesn’t really speak loudly about the owners’ overall willingness to spend. Even the best GM’s make less than many players on a team.
  18. We don’t actually know what Elias makes, right? So we really can’t compare them. Alex Avila holds the EVP title as a first time GM. I’m pretty sure Rizzo did, but now he’s president of baseball ops. To really make a comparison you need to know if they’re the top person in baseball ops. For example, Jed Hoyer is EVP and GM for the Cubs, but Theo is President of Baseball Ops. Two guys can hold the same title but still have different responsibilities and places in the pecking order.
  19. There are quite a few GM’s who hold EVP titles. Not all, but a significant number.
  20. I think your narrative of worrying about spending has gotten a bit shopworn. At the end of the day, now isn’t the time to be spending a lot on payroll. When the time comes, we’ll see what they do. There’s no significant evidence one way or the other.
  21. LOL, I was looking at the 1B list and wondering why Adam Dunn wasn’t there. Then I got to LF: “In all fairness, Adam Dunn could've made this list at several different positions, we just picked left field because that's where he had the most starts. He also was terrible at first base and in right field.”
  22. I’m too old and stodgy to remember what you said yesterday.
  23. Yeah, I’m sure all the Yankee fans are lamenting the poor defense that Jeter SNS Williams played while they were winning 4 World Series in 5 years. Really takes the joy out of it, I’ll bet.
  24. Last year MLB posted this job description: Key Responsibilities: Complete valuation analysis of player contracts and other analysis related to baseball labor markets Monitor trends in Club and Player strategy to assist in setting on-field policy and rule changes Oversee all duties related to Uniform Employee Contracts and the Employee Permissions process Serve as business customer to Commissioner’s Office baseball IT systems, ensuring data accuracy across baseball applications, managing vendors and assisting to set departmental IT strategy Provide analytical support to Clubs in negotiations and hearings with salary arbitration-eligible players Other projects as assigned by Senior Director, League Economics & Strategy. As I said at the time, you might as well call the job “Director of Collusion.”
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