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Everything posted by Frobby

  1. Scrolling down the list of Orioles no. 1 picks, I think the first one I was aware of on or near draft day was Chris Myers in 1987. That was the first time In team history the Orioles had a top 9 draft pick. Until then, the team was always good and fans didn’t give the draft a second thought. Myers, I remember, was considered a surprising choice. I recall he was an outfielder who had converted to pitcher. He never made the majors. I knew almost nothing about the Orioles’ minor league system until I discovered Orioles Hangout in 2001 or 2002. Erik Bedard was one of the big stars of the system then, and Matt Riley was on the mend. Not a ton of talent in the system at that point, especially on offense.
  2. I took it for granted. I took a lot of things for granted in those days. The late ‘80’s were a total shock to my system. I’d just assumed the Orioles would contend forever and everything would continue to go right for them. Imagine being an Orioles fan after the 1983 season. You’ve had a great team for 20+ years, won three World Series and had eight playoff appearances in that time, and you have a 27-year old Eddie Murray and a 23-year old Cal Ripken. Why in the world would you expect anything other than that the team would continue to be great? But as Drungo pointed out, the ship was rotting below the water line.
  3. They also pulled off many great trades that brought in Frank Robinson, Mike Cuellar, Ken Singleton, Rick Dempsey, Scott McGregor, Tippy Martinez and others. Seemed like almost all the guys we acquired got better once they put on a Baltimore uniform. Especially any pitcher that suddenly had Brooks, Belanger and Blair behind them.
  4. Is that a prediction? Today’s game hasn’t started.
  5. Oh, me too. But as between: 1. Davis will be good. 2. Davis will be better than last year. 3. Davis will be as bad as last year or worse. I’m currently inclined towards (2). The bar isn’t that high.
  6. Yep. Good process, bad result. It happens.
  7. Just go to Orioles.com and click on Stats and they’ll pop right up. This time of year, BB-ref also shows spring training stats on the player pages, but it looks like they are running a day behind at the moment, at least for Hess. His line so far: 5.1 IP, 6 H, 5 R, 5 ER, 1 HR, 4 BB, 4 K’s. Not pretty, for sure.
  8. You are right, I hadn’t recalled that he had another outing that was pretty bad besides the one yesterday. I already stipulated that Hess has been bad to this point in his career. My point was I wasn’t going to judge whether his efforts at improvement over the winter had failed based on one ST outing. Well, on review it’s two bad ST outings out of three. More evidence against him, but you know me, I’m patient and will await further results. We don’t need to DFA anyone for about three more weeks, so I’ll worry about it then.
  9. Nothing is “obvious” based on one bad ST outing. Let’s stipulate he has been bad so far in his big league career. He spent the winter doing various things to improve. They either worked or they didn’t, but one ST outing doesn’t answer that question. I will leave it to Hyde and his coaches to watch Hess carefully, both in games and in side work, and make that judgment. You may be proved correct, but I think you are jumping the gun based on your predisposition towards the player.
  10. Why would he do that, when I already do it for free? 😉
  11. Thanks for the complete and thoughtful answer. The O’s are going to have some tricky decisions about where to place some SS/3B types this season, both in terms of level and position. Encarnacion, Welk, Ortiz and Henderson arguably all belong at Delmarva, but there’s not enough playing time for all of them there.
  12. I had a look, and last year they cut down to 47 players over the equivalent weekend. Right now we have what, 64 players in camp? I think they may cut more aggressively than the list in the OP. But we’ll see.
  13. I think 15 spring training games is usually a good dividing line. That’s usually enough for all the starting pitcher candidates to have had three outings, though the way the Orioles are playing it, a lot of those outings have been in sim games. From that point, the starters are trying to go 4-5+ innings and it becomes necessary to thin the herd considerably. So, I think by the end of the weekend things will start to shake out. The O’s have a day off Monday and minor league position players are all due in camp by Sunday. I’d expect a good bit of movement then. And, I’ll be watching spring training much more seriously after the day off, as the quality of opposition will be going up thereafter.
  14. Yes, with a .189 BA and strikeouts in almost half his plate appearances. No question he’s looked much better in the early going this year. By the way, the quality of pitching Davis has seen isn’t too bad for this stage of spring training. His OppQual is 7.9, a relatively high figure for this stage of the spring. The way it’s calculated is by looking at the highest level reached by each pitcher he faces and calculating an average: Major leagues - 10 AAA - 8 AA - 7 A+ - 5 A - 4 OppQual of 7.9 puts him in the top 15% or so on that measure. Only Iglesias has a higher OppQual on the Orioles so far. Of course, that measure goes up for all players as the spring progresses.
  15. I won’t describe it, you have to watch it. https://www.espn.com/video/clip?id=28838668
  16. This stuff is just fantastic, Eric. Really paints a picture. What I’m enjoying about your perspective is that you don’t really purport to be a scout, but you are a keen observer who is learning more every day but still have the optimism of a fan, seeing the potential best in all the young guys. So, with that in mind, I’m going to put you on the spot. Below is a link to my chart of the Orioles’ top 30 prospects as ranked by OH and several other publications. Who are 5 players who you think may be significantly underrated/ready to make a big jump, either because they’re too low on these lists or perhaps not on them at all? I realize it’s still early in the spring and you’ll have more sophisticated thoughts about this by the time minor league camp breaks, but I’m interested in your early impressions.
  17. And my life is much richer for it. Thanks to you.
  18. It was stated by Davis in an interview earlier this spring, though not as starkly as is written in this article.
  19. Ditto! I hope we’ll get your observations of the Baysox players regularly!
  20. How many people here listened to the broadcast? Probably not many. Only five people posted in the game thread. I’m at work, and check the score occasionally on my phone and look at the box score. It’s hard to discern a great defensive play that way. Steve Melewski wrote two blog posts describing what happened in this game and didn’t mention the play you described. So most of us didn’t even know it occurred. And even if we did, what would we really say about it, if we didn’t see it? Do we even have a video of it, or just still pictures? Not sure what you really expect here.
  21. If he’s still throwing 90 mph in two weeks, there’s a problem. But not all guys have their top velocity at the beginning of the spring.
  22. Average age at every level last year (league first, O’s affiliate in parentheses), then some comments. International (AAA): batters 26.9 (25.9), pitchers 26.2 (25.8). This league is a mix of prospects and AAAA guys, hence the advanced average age. I’d say the average age of the prospects is 23/24, anyone younger is young for the league. Mountcastle was 22 last year. Hays and Kremer were 23. Eastern (AA): batters 24.1 (24.2), pitchers 24.3 (24.0). Most prospects here are 22/23. McKenna, Diaz and Wells were 22. Carolina (A+): batters 22.7 (23.4), pitchers 23.2 (23.1). High college draft picks from the previous summer often start here at 22. High school/foreign guys who have been in the system a while might get here at 21. DJ Hall pitched here last year at 20, Hanifee at 21. South Atlantic (A): batters 21.5 (21.9), pitchers 21.8 (22.3). This league is normally graduates from the prior year’s short season teams, including some mid-tier college guys drafted the previous summer, some high school picks/foreign guys who have been in the system a year or two, and if you’re lucky, a high school kid from the prior summer who aced the GCL. We had two of those last year, Grayson Rodriguez and Drew Rom, who played the Sally League at 19 and were among the youngest in the league. Adam Hall and Adam Stauffer both played well here at age 20. NY-Penn (A-): batters 20.9 (21.7), pitchers 21.3 (21.6). This league typically includes college guys who were just drafted (some 21, some 22) and some GCL graduates. Nothing wrong with being 21-22 in this league if you were just drafted, but if you were in the organization the year before and are 22+, you are probably not a prospect. The O’s did draft several college guys who were young for their class and played here last summer at age 20, including Joey Ortiz, Griffin McLarty and Jake Lyons. Jean Carmona, acquired in 2018 in the Schoop trade, played here at 19 last summer but may have to repeat that level this year. Gulf Coast (Rk): batters 19.5 (20.9), pitchers 20.3 (22.1). Here, you usually get a mix of lower tier college guys who were just drafted, high school guys who were just drafted (and maybe some high school repeaters), and graduates from the Dominican league. We had a very old GCL team, primarily because (1) we have minimal flow from the Dominican league at this point and (2) Elias had a very college-heavy draft. Younger guys here included Darrell Hernaiz (17) and Gunnar Henderson (barely 18), who were drafted out of high school last summer, and Jake Zebron (19) and Yeancarlos Lleras (18), who were drafted the previous summer. Honestly I think Zebron pitched well enough in 2018 to have moved up to Aberdeen, but he was crowded out by all the college guys. Lleras, on the other hand, has struggled for two years in the GCCL after being drafted at 17. Dominican (For): batters 17.8 (18.2, 18.1), pitchers 18.3 (19.0, 18.9). The better players in this league are signed at age 16 and play in the DSL at 17. You hope they do well enough to move to the GCL at 18. Hopefully this summer we will see a few 18-year old DSL grads on our GCL team; there were none last year. Note that we did have one DSL player, Stiven Acevedo, who was just old enough to play even though he was still 16. He did OK but I’d guess he will repeat the DSL rather than being pushed up to the GCL, at least to start the season. For me, you not only need to look at the age the player is for his league, but the path he took to get there. Did he have injury setbacks? Did he have to repeat any levels? Did he skip any levels, or move at midseason? When I see a guy like Encarnacion, to me he is not terribly young for the Sally League considering that he has played professional baseball since 2016, and repeated the Sally last year without really mastering it (in fact, he was much better for Atlanta’s Sally League affiliate in 2018 than he has been at Delmarva since being traded). I don’t know if he’ll start the year at Frederick, but to me he certainly needs to play well enough to finish the year at Frederick if he wants to get back on the prospect radar.
  23. Question for @Eric-OH about Rom - any idea where his fastball was topping out, and did you see him use his rumored new pitch in (simulated) game action? Rom happens to be a guy I glommed onto during his GCL season in 2018 (I think I ranked him 15th in my personal rankings that winter), so I’m hoping he continues to progress and prove me right!
  24. https://www.masnsports.com/steve-melewski/2020/03/jj-hardy-talks-about-instructor-role-possible-coaching-future-at-os-camp.html
  25. Not too worried, but I’d be happier if he were hitting like Andrew Vaughn (.364/.553/.727 through yesterday in 16 PA).
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