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Everything posted by Frobby

  1. It hasn’t been explained here before. But I think in general, I often see overall FV grades from Fangraphs that are lower than any of the tool grades. Diaz is an example of this, and I’m sure there are others.
  2. https://www.masnsports.com/school-of-roch/2020/02/stewart-making-progress-from-ankle-surgery-plus-workout-notes.html
  3. Better Brady Rodgers (who?) than a couple other dozen pitchers I can think of.
  4. It’s not like KC had a bunch of ace starters, either. In 2014 or 2015.
  5. Here’s a nice summary of Fangraphs scouting grades on the tools of our top 40, that includes exit velocity data for hitters and spin rate data for pitchers. Pitchers: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2020-prospect-list/scouting-pitching?sort=-1,1&type=3&pg=0&team=bal Hitters: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2020-prospect-list/scouting-position?sort=-1,1&type=2&pg=0&team=bal They also give the hitters separate grades for pitch selection and bat control, in addition to the usual tool grades.
  6. Tony, I don’t know where they get it, but I just found out that their prospect board lists average exit velocity and max exit velocity. Here’s a list of 18 Orioles prospects that shows their average and max EV: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2020-prospect-list/scouting-position?sort=2,-1&type=2&pg=0&team=bal Of the listed players, Stowers has the top max EV at 110, Daschbach has the top average EV at 92. The pitching list has spin rate (RPM) for both fastball and breaking ball. https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2020-prospect-list/scouting-pitching?sort=-1,1&type=3&pg=0&team=bal
  7. I wonder if Rob Manfred knows.
  8. I may take a crack at it, but there are several factors in play: 1. When the draft started in 1965, there were only 20 teams in MLB. There were no comp picks, so the first five rounds were 100 picks. Last year, with 30 teams and various competitive balance picks and comp picks, the first five rounds were 167 picks. 2. Also, with only 20 teams, there was only 660 WAR (approximately) to spread around the league. Now there’s 990. I’m not sure how that cuts when evaluating the draft, or if it matters. 3. I think the percentage of foreign players not subject to the draft has increased pretty significantly over time. So really what you’d need to know to evaluate draft picks is how much WAR was available among draft-eligible players.
  9. By the way, who’s the pitcher in the photo?
  10. Frobby

    Adam Stauffer

    Wow, that’s quite a statement. He did make no. 22 on the OH list, 11th among the pitchers. But there are some pretty good pitchers ahead of him.
  11. Awesome stuff! Akin being described as a strike thrower made me chuckle a bit, since his walks were quite high last year, though not crazy high. He led the International League in walks and was 6th highest in BB/9 out of the 100 pitchers listed on BB-ref. I do think there were some reasons for that, as the team had him working on throwing breaking stuff when behind in the count.
  12. Looking at the 2018 press release, we had a strength and conditioning coach identified for Norfolk, Bowie, Frederick, Aberdeen and the DSL team. Nobody listed for Delmarva or the GCL, but that doesn’t necessarily mean we didn’t have anyone during the season. It may just be they hadn’t been hired when the press release went out. All the S&C coaches listed in the 2018 press release have been replaced by now. Most of those continued in 2019. The only holdover I see from 2019 is Kevin Mixon, who was at Delmarva last year and will be at Frederick this year.
  13. Yes and no. Britton at his peak was the best closer we ever had, but his peak wasn’t very long. Basically, three years. I’d still say he was our best overall, but he’d have been more epic if he hadn’t spent so much time on the IL in 2017-18.
  14. It wouldn’t be too overwhelming if you looked at, say, the first five rounds. That would be about 250 data points. However, it does get complicated because the rules about sandwich picks and comp picks of various kinds have changed many times.
  15. The more I read about Mancini, the stronger the off-the-field reasons are to keep him. He loves being here, is willingly taking on a leadership role, seems universally respected and liked by his teammates, and is a cheerleader for what the organization is doing. And oh yeah, the guy can hit.
  16. I think the issue is simply whether teams have gotten better at drafting or not over the decades. The problem is, it would be hard to evaluate the last decade, because many of the drafted players are either still in the minors or in the early part of their careers.
  17. Frobby

    Adam Stauffer

    Outstanding interview, Chuck. Stauffer kind of came out of nowhere last year. I remember doing a thread guessing the Aberdeen rotation; I named ten candidates and Stauffer wasn’t one of them. Then he was so dominant for Aberdeen that he got promoted to Delmarva pretty quickly. He did well there, too. I’ll be interested to see where he begins 2020 and in what role.
  18. We are pretty much right on average for our top four. They graded 120 guys, so that averages out to four per team. The average ranking of this group would be 60; the average for our four players is 57. I’m very happy with Grayson’s ranking, not as excited about Hall’s. Hopefully the latter can sharpen his command this year and shoot up the list.
  19. By the way, was anyone else surprised to see Brad Radke at 45.2 rWAR? I doubt I would have pegged him to even be in the 30+ club. A guy I didn’t specify but who also surprises me is Gio Gonzalez, who’s at 29.2 rWAR. He’s had a good career but I wouldn’t think he was on the cusp of 30 WAR.
  20. From another thread: So how rare is it to have a Horse, anyway? And exactly who qualifies? I had a look at every pitcher who debuted from 1990 forward. You can break them down this way: 1990-2009 Debuts – most of these pitchers are retired now, and those who are active (rWAR marked with an *) have pretty much defined their careers by now. 60+ WAR – 9 pitchers. These are your Hall of Famers, or near misses. They include Pedro Martinez (83.9 rWAR), Mike Mussina (82.9), Zack Greinke (71.7*), Justin Verlander (70.9*), Clayton Kershaw (68.0*), Roy Halladay (64.3), C.C. Sabathia (63.0), Max Scherzer (60.3*) and Andy Pettitte (60.2). 50+ WAR – 7 pitchers, one of whom has a real good shot at graduating to the 60+ category. They include Cole Hamels (59.6*), Mark Buehrle (59.2), Tim Hudson (58.1), Mariano Rivera (56.2), Johan Santana (51.7), Roy Oswalt (50.1) and Felix Hernandez (50.1*). To state the obvious, only 6 of these were starting pitchers. 40+ WAR – 7 pitchers, one of whom has a solid shot at the 50+ category. They include Bartolo Colon (46.1), Javier Vazquez (45.7), Jon Lester (45.5*), Brad Radke (45.2), Carlos Zambrano (43.9), Cliff Lee (43.5) and Adam Wainwright (40.2*) 30+ WAR – There were 18 of these, two of whom might move into the 40+ category. I won’t list them all here, but the active ones who debuted in this period are David Price (39.7*), Madison Bumgarner (37.1*) and Johnny Cueto (32.3*). 20+ WAR – There were 55 of these, plus one more right on the cusp. The active ones who debuted in this period are Gio Gonzalez (29.2*), Anibal Sanchez (26.7*), Ervin Santana (25.9*), J.A. Happ (21.8*), Clay Buchholz (21.8*), Jordan Zimmermann (21.3*), Ubaldo Jimenez (21.0*), Carlos Carrasco (20.7*) and Jhoulys Chacin (20.0*). Oh yeah, I put Ubaldo in the “active” category! The “cusp” player is Rick Porcello, who is at 19.9 and young enough where he seems pretty likely to finish above 20 WAR. This category includes 5 pitchers who were primarily relievers, and one hybrid (Darren Oliver, who had a substantial career as a starter before switching to relief). I’ll pause here for a second. That’s a total of 97 pitchers (if you include Porcello) in 20 years who reached 20+ WAR, 41 who reached 30+, 24 who reached 40+, 16 who reached 50+, 9 who reached 60+. You can look at the names and decide for yourself where you want to draw the line as to who was (or is) a Horse. The only two who are really associated with the Orioles are Mike Mussina (who, it should be noted, had the second highest WAR total on the entire list) and Jake Arrieta (25.5 rWAR, almost entirely with other teams). One way to look at this is that about one 40+ WAR pitcher comes along per year (23 in 20 years, plus two others who might get there). A typical year might see one 40+, another 30+, and three additional 20+ guys. 2010-14 Debuts – virtually all of the pitchers from this era are still active and may have several good years in front of them. But here are the ones who have already cracked the 20+ WAR threshold: 40+ WAR – Chris Sale (45.3). Hard to tell how much he has left in the tank after last year, but he’s only 31 and so I’d say he has a good chance to join the 50+ club and still a shot at 60+ too. 30+ WAR – Jake deGrom (34.9), Stephen Strasburg (33.9) and Corey Kluber (33.1). deGrom is 32 but at the peak of his performance, so 50+ seems quite possible and 40+ a near certainty. Strasburg is 31 and I’d probably say the same of him. Kluber is 34 and coming off injury. I’d put his odds of cracking 40+ WAR at less than 50/50. 20+ WAR – Jake Arrieta (25.5), Jose Quintana (24.6), Gerrit Cole (24.0), Lance Lynn (22.2), Yu Darvish (21.8), Dallas Keuchel (20.3) and Julio Teheran (20.2). Cole seems like a good bet to wind up in the 40+ range. It’s uncertain whether any of the others listed will exceed 30+, though some could. I count 16 other pitchers who debuted in this era who have a decent shot at 20+ WAR, though I am sure that some of those won’t make it and that some I am not thinking of will make it. So, from that five year period, I’d say you have four probable 40+ guys (Sale, deGrom, Strasburg, Cole) and another who could get there in Kluber, though I wouldn’t count on it. But there aren’t many other likely candidates from this period for 30+. Nobody who has debuted in 2015 or later has reached 20 WAR yet, and it would be very speculative to guess who will. Let’s hope that if we revisit this thread in 10 years, there will be some new Orioles pitchers on the list. It's been quite a dry spell.
  21. Can’t rep SteveA enough for his effort here. And I’m glad spring training is here!
  22. Austin Hays has a little Matthew McConnaughey going on.
  23. They didn’t really underperform for their draft status, they just didn’t shine like we would like. There have been 55 no. 4 overall picks, and Gausman and Bundy rank 16th and 18th in rWAR, respectively. Both are relatively young and could add to those totals. But I’ll always wonder what Bundy could have been if he’d been healthy.
  24. https://www.masnsports.com/steve-melewski/2020/02/hays-and-mountcastle-ready-for-season-ready-to-make-their-marks.html
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