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Frobby

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Posts posted by Frobby


  1. I found the article I was thinking of, but it barely mentions speed improvements:

    “Mountcastle wasn’t going to let his search for a position be an excuse not to call him up anymore, and resolved to improve his throwing arm. Even as he’s grown into, physically, what teammate Austin Hays calls ‘a donkey,’ Mountcastle got faster to aid his recent transition to the outfield.“

    The rest of the article gives a really detailed account of Mountcastle’s last several offseasons.    It’s a great read.

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.baltimoresun.com/sports/orioles/bs-sp-orioles-ryan-mountcastle-20200227-3gcaddwbojb7xe3mvuvw4jsqxq-story.html%3foutputType=amp

     


  2. 28 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

    It was so universal that I have to wonder if he did something in the off-season or in Bowie.  Changed running mechanics, workout plan, something.

    I need to dig out an article I read about Mountcastle this spring.    It covered all the different things he’s done to try to improve himself over the last 2-3 offseason.    If he really did improve his speed by working at it, he deserves major credit for that.    Speed improvements are something you rarely see.


  3. 1 hour ago, owknows said:

    That death rate has been racked up over the last eight months, and of course is currently on an extreme downward trajectory. The number of deaths nationwide dropped by half over the course of just the past week.

    We are on a pace to close the year with less than 200K deaths attributed to COVID. Let's hope we are that lucky. And if we are, the 54.8 deaths per hundred thousand will have climbed to a little over 60.

    And if that remains true.... then the COVID related death rate will still be less than the normal variability in the per capita death rate over the last 20 years...

     

    I don’t know what numbers you’re looking at to say deaths dropped by half over the last week.    I’ve been charting this since March every Monday.   Deaths were down last week but nowhere near by half.   I’m not at my computer now but will add some numbers tomorrow.   No way we’ll end the year under 200,000; we’re at 190,700 today.

    Hopefully the numbers will keep dropping but you can’t count on it.  They were dropping through May, and were lower than now, only to reverse course.    No telling what happens next with some schools in session, weather cooling, etc.   Hoping for the best, of course.   
     


  4. 38 minutes ago, Philip said:

    I will say, that the average you mention is for the season, and includes guys that are no longer on the team, I think it’s more accurate to look at the starters pitch count at the beginning of the fourth and fifth innings, and see how many of them failed to finish the inning, and left with men on base. My point is that in an effort to get an extra inning out of his starter, Hyde allowed a risky situation. Hyde knows his pitchers’ optimum pitch range, And we are of course not privy to that information, but it sure looks like he goes beyond that range to our cost.

    I don’t really see it.    I feel like I’ve heard this about every manager we’ve had since Davey Johnson.   You have to balance maximizing the chance of winning one individual ballgame vs. keeping your bullpen guys healthy and not overworked.    As I’ve said before, it’s a little easier to call on the pen earlier this year due to larger rosters.   But overall I don’t have a problem with Hyde’s balancing of today’s game vs. the bigger picture.   


  5. 4 hours ago, owknows said:

    So you understand then, that the deaths so far caused by COVID fit within a normal  distribution of expected deaths in the United States characterized over the last 20 years. (+or - about 1.3 sigma.)

    with 878.2 per hundred thousand being the highest annual death rate.

    and 812.4 per hundred thousand being the lowest annual death rate.

    And COVID influencing the death rate by 54.8 per hundred thousand

    I may not be understanding what you are trying to say.    We don’t have a final annual death rate for 2020, nor do we know what the COVID-related death rate for the year will end up being.   That 54.8 per hundred thousand has basically been racked up in 6 months.   Hard to know exactly how Sept. - December will go, but maybe in the 70-80 range by then I’d guess.   Hopefully no higher, but we’ll see.  


  6. 8 minutes ago, joelala said:

    Does Hyde start to get some Manager of the Year buzz soon?

    Roch asked the same question today:  

    Will Brandon Hyde become a finalist for Manager of the Year in the American League?

    Give me one good reason why he shouldn’t.

    https://www.masnsports.com/school-of-roch/2020/09/what-else-is-going-on-with-orioles-besides-pennant-race.html

    I’ll wait until the end of the season to answer that question.    But I’d say Kevin Cash, Charlie Montoyo, Rick Renteria, Terry Francona, Rocco Baldelli and Bob Melvin all have a better shot than Hyde, and Ron Gardenhire and Scott Servais are in a similar position to Hyde.   

    • Upvote 2

  7. 4 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

    As for the Bundy trade, I think Elias took the gamble that Bundy was at his highest value with his price tag increasing. We obviously still don't know what the Orioles have really received in the 4 pitchers acquired for him, but I don't think I would have any in the top 20 prospects and that's a little disappointing. 

    You brought up a good point about the parks he's been pitching in and Anaheim is much better than Camden Yards for him as well, so it's doubtful he would be putting up the same numbers. 

    His pitch selection has moved more slider heavy which started last year as well with the Orioles, but it's not like his stuff took a huge step forward.

    I'm not going to say Elias gave Bundy away until we see how the pitchers he acquired develop and even if he did, there's not a ton of evidence that suggests he would put up the numbers he's putting up this year pitching in Camden Yards and against the AL and NL East teams.

    I think Bundy would be showing improvement regardless of the ballpark or the opposition.    He already was improving as of the end of 2019, IMO.     But perhaps a further tweak to his pitch mix and the more pitcher-friendly environment has helped him.    I don’t think we’ll really know until next year when (hopefully) we have a full year’s sample to examine.   He won’t make enough starts this year to know how he’d hold up over the full season.   


  8. 5 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

     

    Folks around here talk about Hays like he's a sure thing if he can only stay healthy.

    I don't see how he is.

    He was bad in 20 games in 2017.

    He was good in 21 games in 2019.

    He was bad in 19 games in 2020.

    Well, then he should be good in 20ish games next year!

    I agree he hasn’t really established a level of play yet.   I still believe in the guy, but he’s not proven anything at this point.

     

     


  9. On 8/2/2020 at 11:16 AM, Frobby said:

    This is not our next contending team.   Could it fluke into a .500ish season and have a shot at making a 16-team playoff?    I wouldn’t rule that out completely, and I’d enjoy it, but I don’t think that makes them a contending team by my definition.    

    But I am enjoying it.   A lot.    Just gotta avoid any big losing streaks and hang in there.   


  10. 4 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

    Prove to me it's possible to rush AR.

    I’d like to think he’s getting some useful experience at the alternate site working with the coaches and pretty experienced players on a pretty intensive basis.   I’d hope to see him sometime next year despite the lost MiL season.   


  11. 5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

    I've wanted him gone for years. 

    But it isn't my money and I can see why, for financial reasons, the sons would want to hold onto him if they can't come to some sort of buyout.

    At least until the conclusion of next spring training, I expect.    To get the best assessment of whether the full season will get played.   I do think they’ll cut him if the season starts on time.   But I’ve been wrong about this before.   


  12. 6 hours ago, SteveA said:

    There are 19 days left in the season including today.  To get 4 more starts he's have to go on 3 days rest once.

    Oops, you’re right.   It would be very tough to get his ERA under 5 in 3 starts.    He’d have to allow a total of 4 ER or less over the three starts to have a shot.   


  13. 3 hours ago, wildcard said:

    How many posters on here don't know where to find Roch's blog?   Beside why should I post the link when I have you to do that?

    Because it’s the rules?

    10. When quoting information please give the source and a link when possible. 

    11. Do not post copyrighted material in it's entirety. You may cut and paste portions to discuss but please provide a link to the source site.


    Also, while I agree most posters know how to find Roch’s blog, they may have trouble finding the entry the quote came from, especially if a few days pass before the poster reads this.   Lord knows I’ve spent a lot of time trying to dig up old blog quotes that I knew were there somewhere.   

    • Upvote 2

  14. 47 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

    Sisco seems to be falling to earth after a hot start like he has in the past.  I'm not at all certain he has the bat for first base, unless of course the standard is better than Davis.

    I do not think he has the bat for 1B.   He’s got a very good eye, but swings and misses at way too many pitches in the zone.   164 K’s in 489 career PA; 30 in 85 this year.    He’s in the lowest 10% for contact rate in the strike zone (249th of 272 players with 80+ PA).    I’ve come to the conclusion that he’s always going to be a low BA/decent OBP/middling power guy.     That’s not good enough to be a regular at 1B, and probably not at C either due to his below average defense.    He can probably stick in the majors at back-up C for a while, even though his defense is below average.    It’s not as bad as it was.   

    • Upvote 1

  15. On 9/7/2020 at 10:48 PM, OriolesMagic83 said:

    I am cautiously optimistic that Elias's plan is working/will work.  Akin and Kremer not only had good raw stuff but an idea of how to use it.  A contrast from the past would be Cabrera and Bedard who had superior arms but no idea how to pitch when they got to the majors.  I'm not saying that Elias system or any other system will turn every talented arm into a major league pitcher, but it seems like these new pitchers (and position players) have an idea of what they need to do to be successful MLB players. 

    It’s worth pointing out that Cabrera and Bedard were really rushed to the majors, much more so than most other O’s prospects in that era.   Cabrera in particular — he’d pitched 5 games above Delmarva when he was brought to the majors.  Bedard, at least, had thrown 17 games at Fredrick and 13 at Bowie before losing a year to TJ surgery.    But he basically went from a half year at AA to the majors with a year of inactivity and 19 innings of low minors rehab in between.    

    • Upvote 1

  16. 5 hours ago, bpilktree said:

    They were not high picks so it makes it much harder for players like them to move up the prospect lists especially college pitchers that are usually little more experienced at the lower levels which makes people think they just more polished then other guys at that point.  So usually they downgraded on prospects list and also don’t get high upside remarks as they would being drafted out of high school with room to grow.  Shane Bieber who is me of the best guys in the league right now never made top 10 in the Indians prospects lists and even his highest ranking 11th the right up said low ceiling but a higher floor and possible back end of rotation guy or swing man.   He was another college arm not picked in first round.

    Depends what you mean by “high picks.”   Akin was a second rounder, no. 54 overall.    That’s not going to propel you to national top 100 prospect status, but it certainly gets the attention of national evaluators.   

    In any event, we have a lot of pitching depth in our system now.   Akin and Kremer are not at the top of our list; two pitchers who were picked no. 11 and no. 21 overall are.   But they are both better than Wright IMO.
     


  17. 4 hours ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

    Nice to see Means right the ship a bit. His ERA is still not good at 6.58, but his WHIP is a very respectable 1.23 (finished 2019 at 1.14). If he can get his ERA in the high 4s by year end, that would be amazing, considering how much of an impact that first game against the Yanks undoubtedly has.

    It would not be that hard to do, considering how few innings he’s thrown (26).    Assume he gets four more starts and throws 22 IP (5.5/game).    If he allowed 7 ER in that span (2.86 ERA for those four games), that would take his ERA to  4.88.    Difficult, but not impossible.  

    • Upvote 1
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