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Frobby

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Posts posted by Frobby


  1. 9 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

    Or the 377 was a big fluke.  
     

    I think he finds his way onto a ML roster if the reports are true that he is an excellent fielder and has good speed.  With the 26th man now in play, there is room for that player on the team and you shouldn’t have to pay anything more than the league minimum for that production.  

    The .377 was a fluke.  But he did also hit .344 in the AFL that Fall, too.   Do I think he’s a potential .300+ hitter as a major leaguer?   Not at all.    But a guy who can play a solid major league CF doesn’t have to hit a ton to be a useful player.    His career MiL line of .264/.350/.387 would do the trick just fine if he could pull that off in the majors.    


  2. 7 minutes ago, Papeete said:

    The topic of this thread is about the player, but the real discussion is about each Poster's value system . . . intelligence or athletics!

    I don’t think so.    I have a college degree and a law degree.    My wife has a college degree and two masters’ degrees.   All three of my kids have college degrees, from pricey private colleges that we paid for in full.   One of them has a graduate degree as well.    I totally understand the value of a good education (which is different than “intelligence”).

    But Kjerstad is a guy who chose to enter the draft before he’d finished college and take a pile of money to play professional athletics.    In my mind (and probably by contract), he’s obligated to give his employer priority over completing his degree, which plenty of players do without declining their professional obligations.   

    Now understand, I don’t think Kjerstad did this.   I believe he was unable to participate for medical reasons and decided to use the time to continue his education, which is great.    But I wouldn’t agree with it if he had simply chosen to blow off Fall Instructs to take classes.    
     

    • Upvote 4

  3. 9 minutes ago, Papeete said:

    Is playing for the Orioles during this short 2020 period going to have ANY impact on his career? NO

    I’d say maybe yes, maybe no. He spends 4-5 weeks playing with and against other professionals, gets some coaching, gets some eyes on him and they give him a program for what to do over the winter based on that experience and maybe he gets some of his own ideas of what he needs to work on based on that experience.   That gives him a leg up on next year compared to not doing it.   If they thought Fall Instructs didn’t benefit players, they wouldn’t do them, right?

    • Upvote 2

  4. On 10/29/2020 at 4:43 PM, Tony-OH said:

    On top of it all, the Orioles said he was not attending due to a  non-baseball related injury. So maybe, just maybe there is more to this story, which is really the main point in all of this.

    To be clear, Roch called it a “non-sports medical reason,” which is different from a “non-baseball related injury.”   It may have been an illness rather than an injury, and whatever it was didn’t relate to sports.    So for example, it appears he didn’t injure himself playing basketball or pickup football or the like.    But there’s a million other things it could have been, so I’m not going to speculate about it.   Whatever it was, it’s unfortunate.

     

    • Upvote 1

  5. Just thought I’d put the quote in here for those who want to interpret it for themselves:

    Roch: “I know the club couldn’t say much about Heston Kjerstad not being there beyond a non-sports medical reason, but is there an update on him as far as what you have set up for him, since he wasn’t able to participate in anything this summer or fall?

    Blood: “It’s just unfortunate. The camp was so short and just kind of unfortunate that it didn’t work out for him to come down, but he’s a great kid. He’s actually finishing his degree right now. He’s going to be graduating from Arkansas, I believe this winter, so that was something he was really able to put his head toward and get done, which is great. We’re all for that. We’ve got a plan with him and the hopes are we’ll see him next year and put him right into the mix with the rest of these guys who have been exciting to watch.”

    I agree with the interpretation that going to college was not the reason he missed Instructional League.   Sounds like he had to miss it for his medical reasons and decided to spend his time working towards completing his degree.

    If that’s wrong, and he missed Fall Instructs so he could take classes, yes I’d have a problem with that.    But I doubt that’s the case.    And we probably won’t learn anything further about this until spring training, so I’m not going to spend the next 4 months obsessing over it.   

     

    • Upvote 2

  6. On 10/27/2020 at 9:07 AM, Spy Fox said:

    It's surprising Manny only has 2 GGs. Though he had to contend with one of the steadiest 3b ever in Beltre, and he didn't do himself any favors moving the same league as Arenado.

    Quite honestly, Manny slipped a bit defensively when he started adding bulk and becoming a power hitter.    He’s still a very good defensive 3B, but no longer at the very top.  


  7. 5 hours ago, Obando said:

    Yes, those PTBNLs along with one from Houston for Hector Velazquez.  I would assume we will get news on this over the next week.  I think there’s a moratorium on announcing transactions for 5 days after the end of the WS, but I could be mistaken.

    I thought it was just during the WS.     There is a five day period before players can declare free agency.   Also, teams have five days to decide whether to exercise options on players.    A slew of options were declined by various teams already today.    We’ll know about Iglesias no later than Sunday.   

    • Upvote 1

  8. Last year:

    19. McKenna

    21. Bannon

    22. Stauffer

    23. Pop

    30.  Cumberland

    The only choice here that preserves that order is Nevin/McKenna.   McKenna played at the alternate camp, and if he didn’t impress, he could have slipped.    But even if he did, there’s no reason why Pop would have jumped Stauffer, or Cumberland would have jumped everyone, or Stauffer would have jumped Bannon.    So, I am sticking with Nevin/McKenna.    

    My second choice would be Bannon/Pop.    The logic there would be McKenna slipping based on bad reports from camp, and Pop jumping Stauffer because of reports that he has recovered successfully from his TJ surgery.    But that’s a lot of moving parts.   
     


  9. Here are Kennie Steenstra’s comments about Bradish in Steve Mekewski’s blog today:

    “There is nothing not to like,” Ramsey said about Bradish. “He’s a phenomenal person. Showed up a little later, but in shape and ready to go. Strong, physical kid. Different delivery than maybe what you are used to seeing. Higher arm slot, more over the top, but that’s OK. It works well for him. It was fun to watch. First time for him in the organization and it was nice to work with him.”

    Bradish throws his cutting fastball in the low to mid 90s with a curve, slider and changeup.

    When you talk about starting pitchers yet to debut with the Orioles that the organization has some hopes for, and are currently at higher levels, you talk about a group of pitchers such as Michael Baumann, Zac Lowther, Alexander Wells and Smith, to name just a few.

    Ramsey believes Bradish fits in well talent-wise with that group.

    “I do. I think he’s up with that. Not taking anything away from those guys, but I thought he was underrated in some rankings I saw. He is very competitive,” he said.

    https://www.masnsports.com/steve-melewski/2020/10/checking-in-with-pitching-coaches-from-the-bowie-alternate-site.html


  10. Some comments from Kennie Steenstra about Smith today:

    “Very quality young man,” Steenstra said of Smith. “Got a very good sinker and four-seamer both. Has the ability to throw both of those for strikes. The slider was his best putaway pitch to righties and lefties. He likes throwing that backfoot slider to the righties. Very competitive and very intuitive in wanting to learn everything about our system, what we are doing and trying to get better. We felt he made some strides in the short time he was there.”

    I asked Steenstra what it would take for Smith to make the majors and have the early success that Akin and Kremer had.

    “I think it’s similar,” Steenstra said. “He’s got to develop a little bit better of a changeup. He’s got a pretty decent one right now, but just getting consistent spin and consistent arm speed with that pitch to utilize that more in his mix will help him a ton. But he’s another guy that with the Mets the year before put up some pretty impressive numbers for his age and experience level. I think he can do some big things in the next couple of years.”

    https://www.masnsports.com/steve-melewski/2020/10/checking-in-with-pitching-coaches-from-the-bowie-alternate-site.html


  11. 3 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

    He's really an unknown because of the bat improvements he showed early on the year are for real, he's a steal as a 3rd round pick.

    Probably more volatility here than most guys on the list.    The comments from Blood made him sound real good defensively but maybe needing some adjustments offensively.   

    “Servideo is a really, really nice defender and has got bat-to-ball skills and we’re going to keep working there.“

    https://www.masnsports.com/school-of-roch/2020/10/draft-selections-impressing-in-fall-instructional-camp.html


  12. 3 hours ago, Philip said:

    I’m not going to disagree, But I have a question, “prospect” is someone who has major league potential, and it would seem to me that somebody who has already made the major leagues, which is the biggest hurdle, would have higher prospect status than someone who is still in the wings, even if the person in the wings has a much higher ceiling. And Zimmerman wasn’t too bad in his debut, especially considering all the circumstances. I’m surprised he’s so low.

    That’s not the way these guys get graded.   Yes you get some credit for how high you’ve gotten in the system, but ultimately the grades are about (1) your expected outcome, and (2) your ceiling.   Zimmermann has made it to the majors, which is great, but his most likely role is a swing man.   Other guys have more potential, if less certainty of reaching the majors.    

    That said, almost every guy on the list from no. 12 through no. 26 has been graded 45 FV/50 ceiling, so we are really splitting hairs here.   The only exceptions are Baumler and Mayo (both graded 50/60) who haven’t played beyond high school yet so there’s a lot of uncertainty there, and Hernaiz (45/55) who hasn’t played above the GCL.   Those are guys who could move up or down the list pretty significantly next year.   
     

    • Upvote 1

  13. Count me as somewhat pessimistic that they will play a full season next year.   If owners can’t fill the stands without restriction, they will have incentive to make the season as short as they can while still earning TV playoff money.   I don’t think a vaccine will have been widely distributed by April, though hopefully at least a substantial portion of the most vulnerable population will have had one.   And regardless of who is President, the numbers won’t turn around overnight.    They are getting worse right now and my gut instinct is that they’ll continue to get worse over the next few months, particularly with families wanting to be together over the holidays.


  14. 7 hours ago, jamalshw said:

    Honestly having someone at 24 that has a floor of a useful lefty reliever is not a bad thing. It speaks to some depth.

    Just as an observation here, last year’s OH rankings included 17 players rated at 45 or higher FV, and 19 players rated at 50 or higher ceiling.    This year we are at no. 24 and every player has at least 45 FV and 50 ceiling.   That’s despite Hays, Mountcastle and Harvey coming off the list.    So yes, the depth of guys who seem like they could be decent major league pieces is expanding significantly.    

    I think Tony said there was a drop off after 25 or so, so I guess we’ll see some players with a 40 FV or 45 ceiling within the next few players on the list.   

    (I note that Stowers was only given a 40 FV last year, but 45 this year.    I’m not sure if that’s based on how Stowers looked this spring, or just Tony feeling more generous.)

     


  15. 1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

    Funny that they describe it as a pitching rich system.  I'd say it's more like "Two arms and everyone else."

    Might go try to find this issue somewhere, would be curious to see why they picked him #1 and not Wander Franco or someone else.

    I do not read this headline as saying Rutschman is the no. 1 prospect in MLB.   It’s saying he’s no. 1 on the Orioles.   

    As to our system being “pitching rich,” of the Orioles’ top 10, 5 are pitchers; of our top 20, 10 are pitchers.   So it’s a 50/50 system and if you look around baseball, that’s the norm.   I’d say our system has slightly above average hitting and pitching right now, and it’s a slightly above average system.   I’d say we might have a little more depth once you get beyond the top 10 pitchers in the system than most teams, but we’re not overflowing with top-end pitching talent.   

     


  16. 14 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

    Wow!  He may have had 4 pitches at different times in his career but I very rarely remember him as a 4 pitch pitcher.    I think in the 69-73 timeframe he was more of that fastball/slider guy who might throw a straight change in once in awhile.   I don't remember really "featuring" a change at any point in his career.  It was more of a "show me, keep them honest" type of pitch.   It certainly never was a plus pitch for him, to the best of my memory.   At one time in the mid to late 70's I remember him featuring a slow curve as his second pitch.   In my memory, Palmer was essentially a one pitch pitcher who threw the other pitches to keep hitters honest.  I would love to see the percentage of fastballs thrown by Palmer throughout his career.   I would guess that it's very high.   Now, having said all this, I realize that my memory might just be toast but I really don't think of Palmer as a 4 pitch pitcher at all.

    I think one of the reasons his strikeout numbers weren't very high is because he never really had plus secondaries.    His fastball was that effective.   He must have gotten more popups than any other pitcher.   The high fastball that hitters couldn't get on top of.    That's what I remember.

    I think of his change up about like you do.   I said he didn’t throw it much.  Here’s Palmer’s own description of his repertoire:

    “I was a fastball pitcher with three other pitches: a slider, a curveball, and a changeup. I had a four-seamer and a two-seamer… four seams early on. I didn’t turn my two-seamer over, but it had a little different look, so it was a pitch I could use. If you throw enough four-seamers away to lefties, it is a pitch you can throw where the ball has a little different movement to get them to maybe roll over, especially when they’re trying to hook a ball in the hole with a runner on first base. But I was primarily… even when I was throwing 90-whatever, upper 90s or upper 80s, I was still pretty much the same pitcher.”

    https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/8883/prospectus-qa-jim-palmer/

    One other thing I have to say about  Palmer: he had the most fluid, beautiful, mesmerizing pitching motion I ever saw.  It seemed so effortless even with a really high leg kick.   The ball seemed to just flow from his motion.    

     

    • Upvote 4

  17. 5 hours ago, LookinUp said:

    If I lose Yaz, I want to know exactly why I lost him. That doesn't mean the decision itself was bad, but it needs to be understood. It's really another Jake Arrieta case. He was given a million chances here and never panned out. Leaves, gets different opinions and blows up. I want to know why.

    In hindsight, it's clear that former group of Orioles baseball people were never going to get Arrieta to succeed here. That was a problem. It's also a problem if we have a guy like Yaz and can't get him to succeed here. A big problem that I want to know the answer to.

    I don’t think the Yaz/Arrieta analogy is very apt.   Arrieta was a highly regarded 5th round pick who got a large signing bonus, was Carolina League pitcher of the year, was in the BA top 100 a couple of times and progressed reasonably quickly to the majors without a ton of MiL hiccups.   His talent was obvious for all to see, and the puzzle was why wasn’t it translating to major league success.    Yaz on the other hand was a 14th round pick senior sign who never really excelled in higher levels of the minors.    It was frustrating when Arrieta succeeded so quickly with the Cubs because it really seemed like we should have been able to unlock his talent.    Yaz’s success, on the other hand, seemed to come out of nowhere.   I found that more astounding than frustrating.   It’s a shame Elias’s staff didn’t see that in Yaz in the very short time they had to look at him, but I don’t see it as a big failure, whereas I do see our failure to unlock Arrieta’s abilities as a big failure.

    • Upvote 2
    • Like 1
    • Thanks 1

  18. 1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

    I don't think we really disagree all that much. I'd like to just add that just because I'm pointing out that his player acquisitions so far have been less than successful does not mean it will always be that way. 

    It's not like taking chances on guys like Ruiz or Wojo wasn't worth a shot considering the internal alternatives, it's just that his process has yet to yield any real fruit. For all of Duquette's down points, he did find Santander in a Rule 5 draft and Nunez on waivers even towards the end of his reign. 

    I'd just like to see Elias and crew find a diamond in the rough and polish it into a jewel with their process, scouting and coaching. 

    To me, Hanser Alberto was a relatively successful pickup. 3.4 rWAR in what amounts to 1.4 seasons, compared to Núñez’s 2.2 rWAR in 1.8 seasons.   Yeah Nunez has the better bat but Alberto’s overall package is better IMO since he has some defensive value.    

    For that matter, Alberto’s 3.4 rWAR the last two seasons is more than Santander’s 2.9, though I’d certainly say the trend favors Santander being the better player over the next several years.    I’m looking forward to seeing if Santander can sustain the progress he’s shown the last two years.    
     

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