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Frobby

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Posts posted by Frobby


  1. 57 minutes ago, ThomasTomasz said:

    You're going to believe what you believe, just like the folks who believe this rebuild should be taking less time.  And hey, on this you could be right.  But I remember reading these stories around the time that Duquette came in, but the chances of finding those right now is slim-to-none.  I'm sure that he didn't believe in spending money that way, but again, ask yourself why.  If Angelos was willing to lose his franchise to stick up for the players in 1994, it is not far-fetched to believe that he would not be getting into the Latin American market which is still pretty cutthroat and dealing with 14 year olds like commodities.  Honestly, we need an international draft in the worst way, and not have these guys able to go until the same age as high school seniors.  

    One important thing to remember is that the economics of the foreign market have changed drastically in the last 5-10 years, as MLB has regulated the foreign market and imposed spending caps.    It may be that Andy MacPhail and Matt Klentak could make reasonable arguments that spending in the foreign market was an inefficient use of resources, back when signing bonuses were unlimited.    It’s a very different ballgame now and the MacPhail/Klentak logic no longer applies.   https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.camdenchat.com/platform/amp/2011/5/11/2165462/q-a-with-matt-klentak-orioles-director-baseball-operations


  2. 15 minutes ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

    Also, Means’s K/9, BB/9 and WHIP were all better than Davies so it’s sort of odd or backwards to list out those numbers for Davies and sort of hand wavingly say “I guess the closest thing we have is Means” 

    Davies has a five year track record as a very solid 3/4 starter.    3.79 ERA, 9.7 rWAR.   Means is 2-3 months younger but has been a major leaguer for three fewer seasons than Davies.   I think it’s very fair to say Davies is the more established pitcher and has the higher floor of the two.    Means is less experienced and had his ups and downs last year, but may have more upside than Davies.    If you ignored their salaries/service time, I’d be hard pressed to say which one I’d prefer to have going forward.   But obviously the salary and service time issues loom large  here.  


  3. 1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

    They started ramping up international spending a couple years ago.  So some players should start appearing on the lists soon right?  Are you not expecting any returns until year seven?

    I think Elias did a masterful job of setting expectations low.

    I’m not talking about when they appear on lists, I’m talking about when they’re in the major leagues helping the club.    

    Elias has had two international classes.   In both, he was handicapped by the fact that most of the top players are committed up to two years before their official signing date, so what he got for the most part were late bloomers and leftovers.    The first class had a couple of promising guys, who haven’t yet played pro ball other than the Tricky League, which is the Dominican version of fall instructs for all practical purposes.   They didn’t get a chance to show what they could do in 2020.    The second class is not even officially signed yet, due to MLB’s decision to delay the signing date from 7/2/20 to 1/15/21.    We’ve heard about two or three unofficial signings in that class, and that there may be more high end prospects in that class, with a lower number of players signed.  They haven’t played yet either.    So hopefully, this summer the DSL will play, some players will be brought over to help stock the two GCL teams, and at the end of the summer we’ll have some basis to judge whether the two classes of signees have some good prospects despite the handicaps.   And as to the third class, my understanding is the O’s are now on an even playing field with everyone else and we won’t be hearing any reasons why we couldn’t sign a fully representative class.   


  4. 4 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

    But now that the O's theoretically have a viable system up and running they should be fine without having to continue to aim for top picks.

    How to put this?    Having a solid international system in Year 1 probably begins to help your major league team in Year 5 or 6.    By then the 16-year olds you invested in are 21-22 and maybe some of them reach the majors.    (Yes, I realize that every so often a 19-20 year old slips in there, but we’re not banking on that.)

    The players you draft start helping the team in 3-4 years if they were high school guys, 1-2 years if they were college guys.   

    In all cases above, that’s pretty aggressive.   We know the median major leaguer debuts at 24.   Most, not all, of the high impact guys debut younger than that.   

    I think given this scenario it makes some sense to continue aiming for high picks for another year.    But I don’t want to overemphasize reliance on top 4-5 picks.    Good overall drafts that contribute good major league players.    

     


  5. 11 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

    The Padres?  They have had one top four pick (#3) in the last decade.

    Might not have been the best example to use.

     

    I do not think you need 4 years of top 4 draft picks to compete.   You do need several very good overall drafts and other steps to acquire prospects in exchange for veterans.   

    I believe one thing the Padres always had was a decent international program.  The MLB.com March 2020 top 30 for the Padres contained 11 international players, including their no. 3 & 4 prospects, ranked 25 and 27 in all of MLB.   The lack of an established international program puts a lot more pressure on the draft for the O’s.   I expect the O’s to be fully competitive in the international market in the class that follows the Jan. 21 class (which, by the way, will include a couple of potential O’s top 30 guys), but what hurts us right now is the the lack of the 20-23 year old Latin players that could have been signed 4-7 years ago.   That’s the reason our farm system is top 10 but not top 5.    


  6. 6 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

    Or Elias states that wins don't matter in 2022 and we have another year of slow rolling promotions and waiver wire regulars.

     

    I think that will be a much harder sell than in 2021.    And, I think the team will naturally be getting ready to compete by then anyway.    

    I’m really looking forward to the 2021 season.   We still have a number of holes to fill but more of the spots are getting filled by players who have talent and just need to gain experience.    This year will be about individual growth and performance for me.   
     


  7. 1 minute ago, LookinUp said:

    You're operating in the land of the possible. I'm thinking of the land of the reasonable. 

    It's unreasonable for you (the GM) to ask me (the owner) to throw tens of millions of dollars into a product that will be marginally better but still essentially guaranteed to lose. And you (the GM) are likely to ask me (the owner) to do it again next year. And when we get better, you are going to ask me to just make that extra investment to put us over the top, but you'll be ignoring the $60 million extra I spend the last 2-3 years and waiving it away like it's nothing.

    You think it has "no impact on us." I think that's absurd.

    I’m on your side of this debate.   However, you do have to consider what impact there is on the fan base of fielding a non-competitive team several years running vs. fielding a losing but respectable team several years running.  I don’t think the answer to that question is obvious one way or the other.   I’ll only say that I’d rather experience 3-4 years of really terrible teams than 14 years of 63-79 win teams.    I’ve already experienced the latter and it got very old.    So if we can be a winning team sooner by being truly terrible for a while, I’m fine with another year or two of this.   Anyway, the truth is the major league team’s record has gotten somewhat better in each of Elias’ two seasons.   We’ll see about 2021.    


  8. 37 minutes ago, wildcard said:

    You quoted Cronenworth 767 OPS in the minors but you ignored the 375 OBP.  He is a on base guy, not a power hitter.   He's a #2 hitter in a good lineup.  He hit for a 949 OPS in 406 plate appearance in the International League at age 25.      That is more than a hot month.  He followed that with a 354 OBP in the majors at 26 as a rookie.

    If I’m only going to use one statistic, OPS is far more revelatory than OBP.    I take your point that Cronenworth has been a good OBP guy throughout his career, and that he had a very nice AAA season in 2019.    It doesn’t necessarily change my view that his first month may have been just a momentary hot spell.   Since you like OBP, his OBP in Sept. was .275.    I’ve never seen the guy play, and I don’t have a definitive opinion on whether he just had a hot month or whether he’s a late bloomer.     


  9. 21 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

    Well it’s an opinion, so I don’t think you can say it’s wrong.

    And the spending now is also for someone(s) who can help you later.  I think they should be adding a starter.  I wanted Stroman but that obviously won’t work now.  But obtaining a starter that can be here for 3-4 years?  Yes, they should do that imo.  
     

    I think they should be obtaining better options for the left side of the IF.  
     

    Zero reason why we should have to watch guys who, if they are lucky, are replacement level players.  That’s lazy, cheap and unnecessary at this point.  

    You keep calling it “lazy” but I disagree with that.    It’s a strategic decision, that people can agree with or not.    It’s certainly cheap in the sense that it costs less money.    But I don’t think Elias is adopting this approach out of laziness.    


  10. 44 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

    Cronenworth is every bit as likely to be a starter as Hays is.

    I am not sure what to make of Cronenworth.    He was a .769 OPS hitter as a minor leaguer.   About a week before the Rays traded him to the Padres, Fangraphs listed the Rays’ top 56 prospects and Cronenworth wasn’t even listed.   He was amazing in his first 31 games through 8/31 (1.034 OPS), then went ice cold the rest of the way (.543 in his last 23 games).    So is he another Yaz, or is he a guy who had a hot month and was fortunate that the short season ended when it did?

    As to Hays, there’s lots of uncertainty there too.  His track record in 272 PA spread over 2017, 2019 and 2020 is not as good as Cronenworth’s in 192 PA, all in 2020.     But his MiL pedigree is significantly stronger, and he’s younger.    Overall, I doubt I’d trade Hays for Cronenworth even up if I were making decisions for the O’s.    But that may be the homer in me talking.   

    • Upvote 1

  11. 2 hours ago, jabba72 said:

    The Orioles had several years like 80-82 during their 14 year winless stretch, I wasnt happy about any of them, but today a 80-82 would mean progress at least. 

    If by “several,” you mean “zero,” you’re correct.  


  12. Just now, Sports Guy said:

    You forgot #3...the team doesn’t care about winning games and as long as Martin catches the ball, he fills the need of what they want.

    Well, if you believe any of the advanced metrics, he didn’t catch the ball well.   

    Rtot -8

    Rdrs -14

    UZR -4.2

    OAA -5

    Personally I didn’t think he looked quite that bad, but when every advanced metric points in the same direction, it’s hard to argue with that direction.    

    • Upvote 1

  13. 4 minutes ago, Philip said:

    Meanwhile, if were not going to make a meaningful improvement, why not just keep Martin?

    It depends on your opinion of Martin.   -1.3 rWAR  (-1.0 fWAR) is pretty dismal.    To bring him back you have to believe either that (1) those numbers don’t actually reflect his performance, or (2) that he will improve a lot even though he didn’t play in 2020.    Otherwise, you can look for some 0.0 WAR type on the waiver wire.   


  14. 22 minutes ago, Philip said:

    Although I definitely agree with the sentiment, I must point out that a career fielding percentage of .970 isn’t that great.

    What I’d say is that career fielding percentage isn’t that great a statistic.    It tells you nothing about the player’s range.     

    FWIW, average fielding % at SS last year was .971.     
     


  15. “At instructional league, we had Gunnar Henderson playing all over the field,” said Blood. “We had Vavra playing all over. Joey Ortiz played a lot of positions on the infield. Hernaiz got some time on the infield and the outfield. That will be a general theme: to get guys exposure to positions they could legitimately play at the major league level.”

    Blood said these players were not just taking reps and/or going through the motions in a new spot. They were getting in quality work and, in some cases, thriving.

    “Absolutely. Gunnar Henderson is such a great athlete and he’s got incredible aptitude. I believe he could play any position on the field except for catcher or pitcher. Wherever we need to put him. He could play seven positions,” he said.

    And after all of that, there are scouts, coaches and others within the game that feel strongly that Henderson may stay at shortstop. At 19, he could outgrow the position, but there is the also the chance a few years from now that he’s still right there.

    “Yeah, that’s one of the seven (positions). If that is where the most value is for the organization when he makes it to the big leagues, then, yeah,” Blood said. “But you never know. You might have someone else who is a great shortstop and we need someone to play center field. Having that flexibility and versatility is a major plus.”

    https://www.masnsports.com/steve-melewski/2020/12/on-the-os-farm-versatility-with-be-a-real-key.html

     

    • Upvote 2
    • Thanks 1

  16. 1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

    And of course, you take a SSS (because it’s what you do) and fail to project him to do anything.  The guy you want isn’t good. His career has shown that.  Martin probably isn’t good either but if the bar is a 1 WAR by the time you are 30, I think I give the far younger player the chance to reach that ever so lofty standard.

     

    It’s not a huge sample size, but it’s not as if Martin hit well for most of his minor league career.    And it’s not like he looked good at the plate, either.    He looked totally overmatched most of the time.   I’d like Martin to have some serious competition for the job, put it that way.   


  17. 2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

    And to piggyback off of this..every team spends at the draft.  Most, if not every team, spends on Intl FA. Everyone has scouts, player development, etc...

    It has nothing to do with rebuilding.

    I think you are unrealistic about the position Elias started in.   He inherited a 47-win team that didn’t intend to tank, that had traded most of its best players before Elias got there, that had a below average farm system and virtually no international pipeline.    You just can’t get from there to a winning team that quickly.     I don’t really care what other teams do because most other teams never got themselves into a hole as deep as the 2018 Orioles did.   You don’t build a bridge when you are 20 feet underground.   


  18. 1 minute ago, wildcard said:

    Like????

    Kaiser Soza.

    Honestly, I’m not going to scour BB-ref for all the unproven shortstops who might be able to produce 0.5 - 1.0 rWAR if things broke their way.   You’d have to pay me to do that job.   


  19. 4 minutes ago, wildcard said:

    Sorry.  I meant 970.

    I know - I just couldn’t help myself after the call for “something brilliant.”

    The way I see it, the guy is 30 years old, has a career 1.2 rWAR and a best season of 0.8.    The advanced metrics have him as a slightly below average defender at SS, and he’s a .670 OPS career hitter.     I’d rather try somebody younger.    


  20. 26 minutes ago, wildcard said:

    I look for range, arm strength and good hands.   His career fielding percentage in the majors is over 790 at all three positions.  Instead of just making a smart... comment.  Evaluate his defense and say something brilliant.

    My comment (far more brilliant than Can_of_corn’s) is that a fielding percentage over .790 isn’t exactly impressive!

    • Haha 1

  21. 14 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

    Sure, you can also hear a pin drop in their home games. They are coming off a division title and have an ace under team control. As a fan that's gotta hurt. 

    Don't get me wrong. They definitely know how to run the small market model to perfection and the Orioles could learn from them for sure. 

    Do you think the low attendance comes from the fact that they’re always trading their best players a couple of years before they hit free agency?   I suppose that’s a plausible theory, but I think that’s a very minor factor in why the Rays have low attendance.    

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