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Frobby

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Posts posted by Frobby


  1. 4 minutes ago, wildcard said:

    What bothers you about Hyde as a strategist?

    First of all, I said “mixed feelings.”   It’s not like I think he’s a terrible strategist or anything.   

    I didn’t like the way he used Givens last year.    I don’t know what he saw in Sulser to make him the closer.   I find some of his batting orders rather odd.    Those are a few things.   

    That said, I’ll worry more about those kinds of things when the team is actually good.    Right now this is about setting a good working environment and helping players develop, and I feel Hyde is doing that.    

    • Upvote 1

  2. 7 hours ago, SteveA said:

    I agree on Means.  This season is a complete mulligan.  I'll begin next year with him just where I began this year: hoping that 2019 was real, but realistically expecting some dropoff from that, but hoping the dropoff is such that he can still be a mid or back rotation guy for the next several years.

    The short second spring training, where he missed the last week with an injury, then a couple starts when he wasn't fully built up to 5 innings, followed by the death of his father, bereavement leave, and another quarantine period...that's a lot to overcome.  Would be nice to see a few good starts in these final 3 weeks but even if there aren't, I still wouldn't give up on him.

    I agree on Means as well.   He should have 4 more starts; hopefully he can pull together a couple of good ones in there.   


  3. So, I started this thread after 20 games and now they’ve played another 20.    Here’s the OPS of each player I listed in the OP in the first 20/second 20.

    Severino .942/.849

    Ruiz .950/.560

    Nunez .980/.699

    Alberto .910/.600

    Santander .858/.926

    Sisco 1.182/.671

    Team as a whole:

    First 20: .797 OPS, 5.35 runs/game

    Second 20: .737 OPS, 4.25 runs/game

    Overall, you’d have to say the first 20 games were “not real.”    But, there’s still another 20 to go, so we’ll see.    The absence of Santander is going to hurt.  


  4. 7 hours ago, Ridgway22 said:

    My optimism for Kremer and Akin are weighted down by the millstone of Mike Wright, and his first two starts back in 2015. 14.3 scoreless innings, 7 hits, 3 bb, 10 k's. We know what the next chapters of that book read like.

    Forgetting their major league debuts, I never considered Wright to be as good a prospect as either Kremer or Akin.    His dominance in his first couple of starts came as a complete surprise to me.   

    Kremer and Akin have a better assortment of pitches, and especially better composure and mound presence than Wright.    I expect both to have much better careers than Wright.    But of course, that’s a very low bar.  There’s a big gap between -1.4 rWAR, 6.00 ERA and Effective Major League Pitcher.   

    Just on a quick first look, I like Kremer’s chances of being a solid major league starter a bit more than Akin’s.    His stuff is more impressive.   But I really like how both comport themselves on the mound.   

     

     

    • Upvote 4

  5. 9 hours ago, joelala said:

    There’s a lot of positive energy around the team right now. I think we should give some credit to Hyde here too. I may have underestimated him. 

    I have mixed feelings about Hyde as a strategist, but no reservations whatsoever regarding the tone he sets for the team.   He was an excellent choice and I hope he’s still here when the team turns the corner.   

    • Upvote 1

  6. I only saw the 5th and 6th innings, but I was very impressed with Kremer.    Really nice vertical drop on his curve ball, really nice horizontal movement on the cutter, nice velocity and spin on the fastball.    Saw at least one FB at 96.     I think we may have a dude here.   

    • Upvote 1

  7. On 9/2/2020 at 11:10 AM, now said:

    Good point. So what metric would you use to identify the most volatile relievers?

    I’ve been meaning to get back to this post for a few days.   There are a couple of metrics for relievers that I think are decent, though I don’t know that there’s one perfect stat.   

    One interesting set available on Fangraphs is Win Probability Added (WPA) and shutdowns vs. meltdowns.    WPA looks at the probability that the pitcher’s team will win the game at the beginning of each at bat, versus the end of that at bat.  So for example, a team that starts the bottom of the 9th up by one run has about a .77 chance of winning that game.    If the closer comes in and completes that inning without blowing the lead, his WPA for that game will be .23 (1.00 - .77).    If he allows 2 runs and loses the game, his WPA will be -.77.     If he gives up the tying run but doesn’t lose the game, it will be something like -.25.    It’s all done with historical data of what a team’s chances are depending on size of lead, runners on base, number of innings remaining etc.    Note that the pitcher gets no credit for what the offense does.    If the team scores after he has entered the game (thus improving the team’s chance of winning), that doesn’t factor into the pitcher’s WPA, because the probability is measured as of the beginning of each at bat where the pitcher is on the mound.

    A shutdown is any appearance where the pitcher’s WPA was greater than .06 for the game.    A meltdown is an appearance where the WPA was worse than -.06.    Note that a setup guy or even a middle reliever can have a shutdown or a meltdown regardless of the inning and whether the lead changes.   It’s much more focused on the quality of the outing.   

    So let’s look at Jim Johnson in 2011-13.   In 2011 he had a very good season, mostly as a setup man, getting the closer job in December.    He had a 2.67 ERA, 9 saves, 5 blown saves and 18 holds.   That earned him a 2.57 WPA, and he had 31 shutdowns vs. 11 meltdowns.    His highest WPA that year was a game where he entered a tie game in the bottom of the 8th, and pitched three scoreless innings, leaving the game with the score still tied after 10 innings.    He would not have earned either a save or a hold for that game, but he definitely earned his shutdown.   His lowest WPA was a game he entered in the bottom of the 7th inning ahead by a run, and allowed 3 runs in the inning to leave down two.    That earned him both a blown save and a meltdown.

    In 2012, Johnson spent the whole year as closer, saving 51 while blowing 3.    That earned him a 5.27 WPA, and 46 shutdowns vs. 3 meltdowns.   

    JJ also was the closer in 2013, posting a 2.94 ERA and earning 50 saves vs. 9 blown saves.    His WPA that year was -0.48 and he had 41 shutdowns vs. 12 meltdowns.  

     

    • Thanks 2

  8. 28 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

    So the guys Elias are picking up are two year projects instead of two months?

    You don't actually believe this right?

    I think wildcard has a point on Verlander and Cole.   These were extremely talented pitchers who had been great in the past and just needed a tweak to get back on track.   The O’s don’t really have anyone like that to work with right now.    Charlie Morton is a more interesting case.    


  9. 2 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

    Per Roch

     

    OK, I stand corrected.    Should’ve checked.   I think it’s safe to say that the O’s haven’t paid attention to that final criterion when nominating Davis.   I see Paul Konerko won the award in 2014 while posting a .572 OPS in 81 games, but most of the winners were at least playing decently at the time.


  10. 6 hours ago, SteveA said:

    I met David Hernandez's father at a pre-Hangout Night get together at Pickles Pub once.   So I don't know if he posted here but he knew the Hangout and met some of us.

    Yes, he did post here, under “oriole from cal.”   Class act.   


  11. On 9/4/2020 at 5:08 AM, Roll Tide said:

    Ok Haha

    Seriously, if they include last year we are probably picking 2 or 3

    If I were Manfred, I’d project this year’s record to 162 games, and average that with last year’s record to come up with the draft order.   


  12. On 9/4/2020 at 6:20 AM, Roll Tide said:

     

    Pretty humble guy!

    Also the article mentions Davis getting the nomination the las three years which is a real head scratcher for me. I’m fine with a the good off the field stuff but his on field performance was not Clemente like.

    https://www.masnsports.com/school-of-roch/2020/09/alberto-selected-as-orioles-nominee-for-roberto-clemente-award.html

    It’s got nothing to do with on field performance.   


  13. On 9/1/2020 at 2:50 PM, wildcard said:

    How fast Rodriguez and Hall develop certainly impacts the rebuild.  GrayRod probably begins at Frederick and Hall at Bowie.  They could go through a couple of levels during the season.   But then there is the service time issue that caused Elias to hold back Mountcastle from getting a late season callup.   That could happen to both of them.

    We’ve heard through Tony that Hall was having command problems in his work at the alternate site.   Haven’t heard much about Rodriguez.   But hopefully they’ve had some pretty intensive coaching over there and the year hadn’t been a total waste.    So, I’d hope that each could at least start a level above where they were in 2019 and then move up again after  5-14 starts if they’re looking good.  

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