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Just Regular

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Everything posted by Just Regular

  1. The cheap angle might be slightly artificial as the Rangers owe him the big bucks at the end of his extension gone wrong. Hat tip to the young MASN podcast guys on that bit the other day. If Odor were genuinely a FA, he might have fielded well enough with occasional pop in 2021 to pull in the Franco-Galvis-Iglesias range for 2022, but we'll never know. I am sure his price tag was a feature for Elias. One of the Weaver on Strategy bits that stuck with me is Earl saying he liked to start his best defensive players and pinch hit. The game has changed of course, but by OAA the Odor To
  2. Elsewhere in today's chat, Longenhagen shared a crosschecker gave him some grief for putting a 5'8" second baseman #1 on his board, which is enough as this year's horserace begins for me to understand Termarr Johnson as the "Altuve-adjacent" one, alongside Andruw Jones and Eric Green's kids, and of course our beloved polished college bats with #Data!
  3. 12:33 zurzles: With all the high ceiling HS talent at the top of 2022, do you think the Orioles are still going to stick with a college bat at 1.1? 12:34 Eric A Longenhagen: I actually think that, if they agree Termarr is in a tier of his own, that they’ll take him.
  4. We could start early on the #1 pick of the 2023 draft. https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2023-mlb-draft/summary?sort=-1,1&type=0 Fangraphs Longenhagen updated their BOARD today and has an SEC shortstop #1 and an ACC third baseman #2.
  5. Lyles is a little bit interesting to me as a control on Holt. With the orangest colored glasses, one could argue that the Pirates and Rangers (dumb!) didn't know how to use this drone sensibly, but the Brewers (we are smart like them now!) did. Our drone flying ace Holt lacked sufficient hardware in 2021's Orioles pitchers, all those inexperienced youths with not enough AAA time, etc. Here's a pitcher who has all his man strength, and half a season of good results with a smart pilot that has enabled him to attain $20mm+ of extra earnings these few years. When Jordan Lyles t
  6. I was surprised to see his 2021 OAA percentile 95...at 50 Minimum Attempts he was 4th of 85 second basemen at Success Rate Added (Ramon Urias was 80th), and even in the top third of third basemen in his first 30 career games there if you lower the chances filter enough for him to show up. 2021 OAA guesses Odor was 9 runs better than Urias with the leather. He reminds me a little of Kohl Stewart, except that making Fangraphs 2016 Trade Value Top 50 is the eternal flame lighter instead of being an elite draft pick. Contact and baserunning were once upon a time strengths, though Savant
  7. He's end of rotation fodder so of course he will get hit hard, but leading the league in the counting stat of HR allowed just means he kept his job. Foltynewicz and Allard had worse HR/9 on last year's Rangers. I did get a chuckle just now that on the xwOBA 2021 percentiles the two pitchers landing on "12" were Jordan Lyles and Matt Harvey.
  8. I liked the cherry pick about 4X November. November, friends, November. CoC may ultimately be correct the early spenders are leading indicators of a more player friendly future, but I feel some of it may also have been the Clubs wanting a few shiny objects for this memo.
  9. But for the travel restrictions, could be a nice time for a DR field trip to try and find the uncommitted January 15 guys. I can practice growth mindset to adopt the practice of @waynebug by almost making the signing bonus part of the name of our first waves of homegrown IFA's bubbling up to Delmarva. I believe moves like the Orioles re-signing Matt Harvey to a minor league deal with ST invite could still happen in December or January.
  10. Crane has proven as good as his word, though HOU > BAL and I presume personal wealth wise he has a good edge on the Angelos' situation, so I limit my hopes to Top 12 as 2014-2018 Orioles were. The peak Adley teams should still get plenty good even if they only attain ~85-90% of the Buck/Duquette peak payrolls for the best few years, assuming low eight figures will always stay in R&D, Latin America, etc. in contrast to Duquette's choices for the end of line Machado teams. ASTROS PAYROLLS Year Opening Day 26-man Ye
  11. Lyles wears the old Kevin Gregg "the best ability is availability" badge. Just like Odor upgrades Valaika, the year over year for Lyles to beat is 56 innings of Plutko 6.75, 55 innings of Watkins 8.00, Lakins, Eshelman, and the list went on and on. Easy indeed to improve a 110-loss team. Agree with SG the money is irrelevant, better to pay double on a cheap item in hopes of lowering Baltimore premium towards 50% next time. Fielding TEAM OAA in 2021 - the Rangers were 4th and the Orioles were 28th with a net of ~50 extra runs allowed by its estimation. I kind of like for @
  12. Down market, $4mm was sufficient to get Dylan Bundy (Twins) and see if anything is left. If Rodon/Kikuchi do go, setting aside Kershaw's uncertain health, that would leave only Tyler Anderson and Zack Greinke from ESPN McDaniel's Top 50, and they were at the very end of the list. I guess at that point John Means would near the top of the list of 2022 rotation options for anyone still looking to add.
  13. This will probably be the last transaction where Elias lacks information about the size of the 2023 playoff field. When baseball resumes, about half the Top 50 free agents will still be out there and probabilities are affected if the 7th best American League team gets into the tournament. Should the 2023 Orioles try, I believe they could hold their own with Boston, Cleveland, Detroit, Kansas City, Minnesota, Seattle, Oakland and Texas all year long.
  14. Last week I read something that mentioned the possibility that minor-league signings, even those with camp invites, might not be affected by the lockout. Some of the 2022 Orioles acquisition target plays may not be affected at all! On the $10mm+ DR price tag, I see that one more like finally putting that first 5% in a 401(k) when your employer gives a dollar-for-dollar match, it is malpractice not to do so. Draft pools, same deal - they are dollars in a market (Adley now past 10x his bonus in estimated surplus value based on one source's guess) rigged where positive ROI in the aggrega
  15. Washed up and all, he probably represents an upgrade to Valaika from last year's team. I am more curious to see Gutierrez and Mateo in April, but it isn't like either of them or Urias are Cal Ripken. Feels a little bit like a sign the Jahmai Jones glass looks half empty to the Club, as if you are penciling in those other guys as "starters", seems like he should get to be penciled in as an infield reserve.
  16. Rangers ideas looking at their numbers: Jung - $35mm and Leiter - $30mm match their Mullins - $66mm, though I don't believe we could get both. Winn - $21mm and Foscue - $16mm match their Means - $37mm Poking around their site, this link has anything its readership has thought up for the Orioles. https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/?team_filter=500 At first glance, several of the Marlins guesses include Orioles asks of SS Isaiah Watson instead of all pitching.
  17. Here I think is some of why the Yankees kept him around. Cot's yearend 40-man figure lists 2021 Yankees at $207.6mm as they successfully ducked last season's $210mm Competitive Balance Threshold to reset (should a similar system continue).
  18. I was surprised how much the Yankees used him, but that probably had more to do with how desperate they were for any left-handed balance before their Gallo and Rizzo pickups. Both he and Urias played some 3B last year.
  19. I think Nick Solak is more expendable for Texas now. Kiner-Falefa can cover 3B for two weeks or two months until Jung is tabbed, and has the defensive versatility Solak doesn't to be an effective utility player.
  20. I just want 105.7 The Fan to get a Correa interview too so he can say he's open to a rebuild in the Baltimore market as well as the Chicago market. Rosenthal's Athletic story today gives interested teams as Astros, Dodgers, Yankees, Mariners, Cardinals, Phillies, Blue Jays, Angels and Red Sox, so I can see him feeling neglected and wanting to make sure the Cubs know to bid too. You really want to go 100% on the biggest markets. https://www.mlb.com/news/carlos-correa-rumors
  21. Correa's meticulous about cultivating East, Central and West, so the Cubs can push the Dodgers and Yankees as the upstart Rangers have stolen musical chairs from the blue bloods and set attractive benchmarks. I imagine he'll be open to whatever slingshots him past Trout until Soto goes all 1920 Babe Ruth on the guaranteed money record. Bryce may not be underwater whenever he's ready to peace out on Philadelphia.
  22. CBA-wise, I'm more anxious about retaining 6.x years of the #1 pick in the 2019 draft when the dust settles. I'm cautiously optimistic phasing in will happen as guys newly affiliate, but certainly could imagine Mountcastle no Arb until age 27, Rutschman no FA until age 31 as conspicuous examples as the PR battles of December and January unfold. I believe any player-friendly modifications that touch current pros would be very no bueno for our group.
  23. Cot's hasn't fixed their RIchie Martin row to reflect another year of club control instead of an Arb1 guess for 2022 based upon 2.110 days of service as of Opening Day 2022, but I think Frobby's research the Super 2 minimum number of days is ~115 is right. I did notice checking Orioles Cot's again today to see if they had fixed Martin that a certain Ryan Mountcastle's "prorated to 162 fractional service days from 2020" land him at 1.105 entering 2022, and Arb1 not until his Age-27 season in 2024. If the current rules continue to prevail, naturally...
  24. I feel a boast coming at 2025 Fanfest about increasing free agent spending for the 7th consecutive year. Good reminder the Orioles Iglesias outlay $2.5mm; I've kind of mentally had him in the 3's, but between exercising the option to sidestep his buyout and trading the valuable option year he never got there. And the judicious use of the $2.5mm opened up the Pinto acquisition opportunity! I guess tendering Trey Mancini a contract today if it happens will be the largest MLB payroll cash expenditure, GM's discretion, for Elias as he enters his 4th season. Means and Santander get p
  25. The precise example numbers Goldstein gave in his chat yesterday had me wondering if he'd been texting with Elias or Sig before hopping on the chat. This year is simultaneous with the free agent frenzy, but most offseasons tender deadline day is one I think of where a decent amount of arbitration-avoiding deals get struck, but To Do lists these last 12 hours may be more crowded than usual. Jesus Aguilar and Josh Bell are the Mancini types some places have labeled non-tender candidates. 1:15 Jeb: May you please educate me – if a team plans on n
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