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Just Regular

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Posts posted by Just Regular

  1. The cheap angle might be slightly artificial as the Rangers owe him the big bucks at the end of his extension gone wrong.   Hat tip to the young MASN podcast guys on that bit the other day.   If Odor were genuinely a FA, he might have fielded well enough with occasional pop in 2021 to pull in the Franco-Galvis-Iglesias range for 2022, but we'll never know.   I am sure his price tag was a feature for Elias.

    One of the Weaver on Strategy bits that stuck with me is Earl saying he liked to start his best defensive players and pinch hit.   The game has changed of course, but by OAA the Odor Top 5/Urias Bottom 5 contrast in the rate stat of Success Rate Added was noticeable.

    Urias is still one of the six Orioles I'm kind of proud to see bat to open 2022 as the roster stands now, but I didn't fully realize during the year how much he might have been giving back defensively.   I'm hopeful he'll settle in and improve some with a well-earned regular lineup spot.   Urias outhit Mancini last year, if the glove stays a big problem and he can do it again...

    • Upvote 1
  2. Lyles is a little bit interesting to me as a control on Holt.

    With the orangest colored glasses, one could argue that the Pirates and Rangers (dumb!) didn't know how to use this drone sensibly, but the Brewers (we are smart like them now!) did.   Our drone flying ace Holt lacked sufficient hardware in 2021's Orioles pitchers, all those inexperienced youths with not enough AAA time, etc.   

    Here's a pitcher who has all his man strength, and half a season of good results with a smart pilot that has enabled him to attain $20mm+ of extra earnings these few years.

    When Jordan Lyles takes $16mm of the Rangers money, he doesn't bring the Brewers intellectual capital.

  3. I was surprised to see his 2021 OAA percentile 95...at 50 Minimum Attempts he was 4th of 85 second basemen at Success Rate Added (Ramon Urias was 80th), and even in the top third of third basemen in his first 30 career games there if you lower the chances filter enough for him to show up.   2021 OAA guesses Odor was 9 runs better than Urias with the leather.

    He reminds me a little of Kohl Stewart, except that making Fangraphs 2016 Trade Value Top 50 is the eternal flame lighter instead of being an elite draft pick.    Contact and baserunning were once upon a time strengths, though Savant shows his Sprint Speed last 3 years descending 73/56/42.   Fangraphs BsR thinks he was still positive in 2021.


    Odor is a polarizing player, with his glaring weaknesses — the lack of walks, the defensive issues, and his temper — stacking up against his elite combination of contact and power rates for a player his age, and his terrific baserunning making him a potential high-end offensive player. His edges need plenty of polishing, but he’s already a quality big leaguer, and given that he’s younger than a bunch of the guys who played in yesterday’s Futures Game, it’s easy to dream on the upside if he starts improving on his weak spots. Not many 22-year-olds can match Odor’s present value, and so even as he marches towards his arbitration years, Odor is one of the game’s most valuable combinations of short-term and long-term value.

  4. He's end of rotation fodder so of course he will get hit hard, but leading the league in the counting stat of HR allowed just means he kept his job.   Foltynewicz and Allard had worse HR/9 on last year's Rangers.

    I did get a chuckle just now that on the xwOBA 2021 percentiles the two pitchers landing on "12" were Jordan Lyles and Matt Harvey.

  5. I liked the cherry pick about 4X November.   November, friends, November.

    CoC may ultimately be correct the early spenders are leading indicators of a more player friendly future, but I feel some of it may also have been the Clubs wanting a few shiny objects for this memo.

  6. But for the travel restrictions, could be a nice time for a DR field trip to try and find the uncommitted January 15 guys.   I can practice growth mindset to adopt the practice of @waynebug by almost making the signing bonus part of the name of our first waves of homegrown IFA's bubbling up to Delmarva.   

    I believe moves like the Orioles re-signing Matt Harvey to a minor league deal with ST invite could still happen in December or January.

  7. Crane has proven as good as his word, though HOU > BAL and I presume personal wealth wise he has a good edge on the Angelos' situation, so I limit my hopes to Top 12 as 2014-2018 Orioles were.

    The peak Adley teams should still get plenty good even if they only attain ~85-90% of the Buck/Duquette peak payrolls for the best few years, assuming low eight figures will always stay in R&D, Latin America, etc. in contrast to Duquette's choices for the end of line Machado teams.


    Year Opening Day 26-man Year End 40-man CB Tax 40-man
    2021 $187,648,656 ( 5) $                    (  ) $206,980,710 ( 3)
    2020 $ 76,971,626 ( 3) $  81,422,510 ( 4) $224,319,004 ( 2)
    2019 $158,053,000 ( 9) $169,831,987 ( 😎 $203,750,149 ( 5)
    2018 $160,393,900 ( 9) $163,824,115 ( 9) $187,386,304 ( 7)
    2017 $124,343,900 (17) $134,076,102 (18) $140,475,350 (19)
    2016 $ 96,893,700 (21) $103,697,860 (21) $124,363,133 (18)
    2015 $ 72,464,200 (29) $ 82,395,216 (27) $ 95,778,605 (29)
    2014 $ 50,485,800 (29) $ 54,689,189 (29) $ 64,319,960 (30)
    2013 $ 26,105,600 (30) $ 29,270,160 (30) $ 39,210,733 (30)


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  8. Lyles wears the old Kevin Gregg "the best ability is availability" badge.

    Just like Odor upgrades Valaika, the year over year for Lyles to beat is 56 innings of Plutko 6.75, 55 innings of Watkins 8.00, Lakins, Eshelman, and the list went on and on.   Easy indeed to improve a 110-loss team.

    Agree with SG the money is irrelevant, better to pay double on a cheap item in hopes of lowering Baltimore premium towards 50% next time.

    Fielding TEAM OAA in 2021 - the Rangers were 4th and the Orioles were 28th with a net of ~50 extra runs allowed by its estimation.

    I kind of like for @Philip's sake we are getting so many recent Rangers, and think Elvis Andrus could be a trade dark horse candidate for the 2022 Orange Carpet.   I am glad OAK didn't tear down before the lockout in case any revenue sharing changes help them keep their group together, but tear down or not Andrus with 1/14 owed probably available nearly talent free if you want to pay him 2019 Villar/2020 Iglesias/2021 Galvis-ish money.

    The high option feels like silly flattery, but maybe Holt just needs the raw material of a Dan Duquette-approved qualified major leaguer.


  9. 1 hour ago, Tryptamine said:

    Sounds like a decent chance Rodon and Kikuchi are coming off the market tonight.

    Down market, $4mm was sufficient to get Dylan Bundy (Twins) and see if anything is left.

    If Rodon/Kikuchi do go, setting aside Kershaw's uncertain health, that would leave only Tyler Anderson and Zack Greinke from ESPN McDaniel's Top 50, and they were at the very end of the list.

    I guess at that point John Means would near the top of the list of 2022 rotation options for anyone still looking to add.

  10. This will probably be the last transaction where Elias lacks information about the size of the 2023 playoff field.   When baseball resumes, about half the Top 50 free agents will still be out there and probabilities are affected if the 7th best American League team gets into the tournament.

    Should the 2023 Orioles try, I believe they could hold their own with Boston, Cleveland, Detroit, Kansas City, Minnesota, Seattle, Oakland and Texas all year long.   

  11. 31 minutes ago, SteveA said:

    We have 11 hours and 13 minutes before the offseason is done.

    Last week I read something that mentioned the possibility that minor-league signings, even those with camp invites, might not be affected by the lockout.   Some of the 2022 Orioles acquisition target plays may not be affected at all!

    On the $10mm+ DR price tag, I see that one more like finally putting that first 5% in a 401(k) when your employer gives a dollar-for-dollar match, it is malpractice not to do so.   Draft pools, same deal - they are dollars in a market (Adley now past 10x his bonus in estimated surplus value based on one source's guess) rigged where positive ROI in the aggregate for the Clubs extremely likely.

  12. Washed up and all, he probably represents an upgrade to Valaika from last year's team.

    I am more curious to see Gutierrez and Mateo in April, but it isn't like either of them or Urias are Cal Ripken.

    Feels a little bit like a sign the Jahmai Jones glass looks half empty to the Club, as if you are penciling in those other guys as "starters", seems like he should get to be penciled in as an infield reserve.

  13. Rangers ideas looking at their numbers:

    Jung - $35mm and Leiter - $30mm match their Mullins - $66mm, though I don't believe we could get both.

    Winn - $21mm and Foscue - $16mm match their Means - $37mm

    Poking around their site, this link has anything its readership has thought up for the Orioles.


    At first glance, several of the Marlins guesses include Orioles asks of SS Isaiah Watson instead of all pitching.


  14. 4 minutes ago, interloper said:

    You might have the most distinctive writing style on the site. I'm not sure I understood a word of this... lol. 

    I just want 105.7 The Fan to get a Correa interview too so he can say he's open to a rebuild in the Baltimore market as well as the Chicago market.

    Rosenthal's Athletic story today gives interested teams as Astros, Dodgers, Yankees, Mariners, Cardinals, Phillies, Blue Jays, Angels and Red Sox, so I can see him feeling neglected and wanting to make sure the Cubs know to bid too.   You really want to go 100% on the biggest markets.



  15. 17 minutes ago, interloper said:

    Don't give up hope yet, @Moose Milligan!


    Correa's meticulous about cultivating East, Central and West, so the Cubs can push the Dodgers and Yankees as the upstart Rangers have stolen musical chairs from the blue bloods and set attractive benchmarks.

    I imagine he'll be open to whatever slingshots him past Trout until Soto goes all 1920 Babe Ruth on the guaranteed money record.

    Bryce may not be underwater whenever he's ready to peace out on Philadelphia.

  16. CBA-wise, I'm more anxious about retaining 6.x years of the #1 pick in the 2019 draft when the dust settles.

    I'm cautiously optimistic phasing in will happen as guys newly affiliate, but certainly could imagine Mountcastle no Arb until age 27, Rutschman no FA until age 31 as conspicuous examples as the PR battles of December and January unfold.    I believe any player-friendly modifications that touch current pros would be very no bueno for our group.

  17. Cot's hasn't fixed their RIchie Martin row to reflect another year of club control instead of an Arb1 guess for 2022 based upon 2.110 days of service as of Opening Day 2022, but I think Frobby's research the Super 2 minimum number of days is ~115 is right. 

    I did notice checking Orioles Cot's again today to see if they had fixed Martin that a certain Ryan Mountcastle's "prorated to 162 fractional service days from 2020" land him at 1.105 entering 2022, and Arb1 not until his Age-27 season in 2024.    If the current rules continue to prevail, naturally...

  18. I feel a boast coming at 2025 Fanfest about increasing free agent spending for the 7th consecutive year.

    Good reminder the Orioles Iglesias outlay $2.5mm; I've kind of mentally had him in the 3's, but between exercising the option to sidestep his buyout and trading the valuable option year he never got there.   And the judicious use of the $2.5mm opened up the Pinto acquisition opportunity!

    I guess tendering Trey Mancini a contract today if it happens will be the largest MLB payroll cash expenditure, GM's discretion, for Elias as he enters his 4th season.    Means and Santander get podium places, probably.

  19. The precise example numbers Goldstein gave in his chat yesterday had me wondering if he'd been texting with Elias or Sig before hopping on the chat.    This year is simultaneous with the free agent frenzy, but most offseasons tender deadline day is one I think of where a decent amount of arbitration-avoiding deals get struck, but To Do lists these last 12 hours may be more crowded than usual.    Jesus Aguilar and Josh Bell are the Mancini types some places have labeled non-tender candidates.

    Jeb: May you please educate me – if a team plans on non-tendering a player, why not release them beforehand to free up a 40-man spot? Is it just a matter of getting more time to negotiate with the player?


    Kevin Goldstein: For the most part. You might not think a player is worth the $8 million he’s going to get as a tendered player, but you’d be happy to have him for $6m, so you take your shot.
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