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Just Regular

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Everything posted by Just Regular

  1. The DH penalty is a real thing. But I've always thought a useful and possibly attainable skill, and one players never seem to want to try, is to flat beat it. I know there are Edgar Martinez anecdotes about him practicing with super fast tennis balls, and stuff he probably did that a fielder wouldn't have as much time to invest in. I think an injury prone good hitter nearing the end of the line, like Reimold now, is the right kind of profile to go for something like this. I know we're cycling through DeAza/Pearce/Snider/Wieters early on, but if Reimold could embrace and thrive at the rol
  2. Whether he is best, mid or worst case in 2015, I've had a growing sense this is his last Oriole year. I think some of it is seeing Christian Walker getting a little more prospect love than I imagined - I think Keith Law called him a fringe regular, which is a solid evaluation from him. Because HR/RBI get paid in free agency and Duquette's preference for up the middle players, I feel like if the Orioles are ever going to pay Boras's price, it's going to be on Wieters not Davis. And hoping for both seems like beyond the pale. From a right player, right price perspective, Walker in 2016 at th
  3. I bet it's off a decimal point in the tweet and his IP bonuses are 125K....12.5K just isn't anything these days.
  4. He wore 23 for Pirates last year, but if he's such a Seahawks fan, I wonder if he'd get inspired wearing 12.
  5. I see him the same as McFarland - I think the org is slow-cooking him, and hoping for serviceable production for the pre-arb years. He'll be a threat to Lough next spring. His ceiling is low enough there's no rush to deploy him until he proves he can handle AAA.
  6. We talk about these four guys for three spots, and consider it a given Davis has full-time run at 1B. I hope Davis rebounds enough that notion is correct, but if the beast isn't back in the first couple months, this could become 5 guys for 4 spots. By then everybody averages 130 games in an even mix, which is just about regular-dom to me. Except for the Trouts and Ripkens of the world, I see diminishing returns on games 135-162 for most players, including everyone but the good Davis out of this group. I'm more worried we don't have enough depth if one of the five breaks than I am finding
  7. Tampa's going to be so great because, obviously, Steven Souza is going 25/25. Apparently he's going to be a Top 5 AL hitter in roto.
  8. Double double in home win over Duke to get his team to 20-2. Looking like a Final Four threat if they don't run out of gas (not much bench).
  9. I dig it. I think weams's point about the Pirates OF is on point. Former Top 10 prospects having big second halves in their age 26/Arb 1 seasons are growth assets to hold. Unless you are lucky enough to have McCutchen, Marte and Polanco. Snider wouldn't be Pipped like this in many other organizations, especially ours. His walk rate and fly ball distance has been noted, and it is also encouraging how much he reduced his strikeout rate at the same time, even amid the strikeout bonanza that was 2014 MLB. Polanco's 2014 was like Schoop's - he was rushed a little and scuffled - the main diff
  10. I thought Duquette was playing semantics when I read his arbitration reaction quote that Pearce had a great year in "about 300 PA's". I looked it up and it was 383. The first thought was, that rounds to 400 not 300 - posturing for the arbitrators is already under way. I imagine Duquette's context for that particular round down is 300 vs. 600. I have hopes for Pearce as a semi-regular again, but don't think he can be planned for a 6-7 days a week load, even if last year's 160 OPS+ "only" regresses to a still strong point where you want the bat as much as you can. Buck had to nurse his wris
  11. I was interested to ready Bundy's cutter might be back on the table and that some in the org want him considered for the rotation now if he shows worthy. I know in general with young guns there is a bit more of a sense to use them while you can and they're still young enough to have their best velocity, but this spring would be really aggressive. Reading that both the org views Sisco as its catcher of the future and Heim has a fan in Buck is an early signal that Sisco may be more of a Dan guy. I know Buck loves his defense and it'll be interesting to see how that plays out if Wieters leaves
  12. I know Boras knows the time value of money, but see him playing a long game and think it's a win for him to get a non-Kershaw pitcher to the $30M/AAV milestone. Kershaw barely passed it at 30.7 and for the indefinite future, no one can argue they're as good. But it lays groundwork two years for now for a Strasburg argument he's as good as Scherzer and $30 is the price, and the deferred percentage can only drop from 50%.
  13. Looks like the Cardinals have achieved cost certainty on Lynn's three arbitration years at $22M.
  14. I wonder when they came to Maryland to wine and dine, how frank the Braves were with Nick about their planned offseason strategy. If one (Heyward) is a fluke, and two (Upton) is a trend, three (Gattis) has to be a strategy and that's three win-now players shipped out for future assets. I hope none of this is a surprise to Nick, but can only wonder. Are the Braves now past a tipping point where moving Kimbrel is the next domino?
  15. Was Epstein a 1-year guy when he went from Boston to Chicago? It's weird, but I guess applicable, to think of GM's trade value riding on their contract status too. Maybe Epstein "only" commanded Carpenter because he was a 1-year rental like Upton. Whereas Dan is more like Hamels, locked up long-term. If this is unresolved by FanFest, it'll be interesting to see if this surfaces in the fan Q&A's.
  16. Yes, the raw numbers are bad, but consider the context. http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=400&type=8&season=2014&month=0&season1=2014&ind=0&team=&rost=&age=14,22&filter=&players= The glass half full argument is he was one of the five best 22 and under position players on the planet last year. Most of his contemporaries haven't earned MLB playing time yet. He played World Series hero and agemate Xander Bogaerts to a standstill and no one's suggesting minor league journeymen are going to push him. Schoop 2
  17. If that's it, that's a fourth option along with Rasmus, Aoki and Ethier to weigh for a platoon LH outfielder at our price point. Wouldn't be much league wide demand for a DeJesus type, and O's would likely be one of the few interested.
  18. Or even Delmon. One of my pet ideas is if you have an extreme platoon bat starting, bat him 1st. That way he gets his 3rd plate appearance when the starter's total batters faced is just 19. If he's lower in that order, it's easier for the other manager to start matching up by batter 24, 25, etc. You guarantee yourself 3 PA's with the platoon advantage, or the other manager starting into his bullpen early.
  19. I know Cueto was super-amazing in 2014, but I see it closer to Nelson Cruz's career year than him starting down a Pedro path. I think overall Cueto's a better pitcher than Cruz is a player, but the order is Pedro - HUGE GAP - Cueto, Cruz. A deal structured around him for 1 year, and Bundy's entire future would be both buying high and selling low.
  20. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/ball-in-play-leaders-and-laggards-national-league-hitters/ This piece increased my opinion of Howard, specifically the miniscule pop-up rate I never would have guessed. I know he's a shell of his former self and one of the worst overpays ever. But I wouldn't hate having him at $2 million/season next year to see if he takes to DH. I call SSS on his weird platoon split last year, and know that before he was a career-long RHP killer. Rasmus is the best fit, but if we miss him, I think I'd rather roster Howard than Aoki or Ichiro.
  21. I've read before the Union, in the same spirit as the new home plate collision rules, purposely wants the neighborhood play for player safety purposes. I guess Oriole fans today would be okay with stricter construction - our linebacker out there figures to need less protection than the wispy Altuve types.
  22. Every time we get the value on the Cruzes and Rasmuses of the world too, I feel like Duquette gets a little more in the piggybank if a big move is ever justified. That his track record combines this savvy on the good not great players and the highlights of securing the primes of Pedro and Manny is a comfort. He reminds me of a rock solid, tight poker player. He won't go all in often, and will be very likely to have the best hand when he does. With clubs locking up the best players earlier, that situation may not present itself more than once or twice a decade.
  23. This is an interesting one. We've seen the sacrifices Buck has asked the Norrises and Gonzalezes of the world to make with short-term options near the All-Star break, etc. If Wieters is unfit to catch yet, should he even MAKE the opening day roster as a DH only? Hypothetically, if his recovery keeps him off catching in the show until May 1, could Norfolk be an option until then? Bat-only, does 100 April PA of DH Wieters over say a platoon of Delmon/(Rasmus/DeAza/Ethier, etc) justify risking Lough? Or is the greater risk in poking the Boras/Wieters bear?
  24. For reference, here are some arb1 numbers from 2014 on players where the club is going year to year. Dayan Viciedo - $2.8 Greg Holland - $4.7 Eric Hosmer - $3.6 Trevor Plouffe - $2.4 Ivan Nova - $3.3 Jeremy Hellickson - $3.6 Jason Castro - $2.5 Ernesto Frieri - $3.8 (60 saves! in 2012-2013) Josh Reddick - $2.7 Michael Saunders - $2.3 Mitch Moreland - $2.6 Alexi Ogando - $2.6
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