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Just Regular

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Everything posted by Just Regular

  1. Hopefully Fuller quick to Baltimore means AAA Adley gets measured in weeks, not months. Although....shouldn't he have to prove himself at AAA so we can be sure he's ready to stay up when he debuts? Twins guy was with their AAA last year, where Lin-Manuel cousin Jose Miranda splashed the prospect scene with a brilliant year. I guess Borgschulte is not going to lose his shot. https://www.milb.com/st-paul/stats/?playerPool=ALL
  2. i guess now the book is closed on the Andrew Miller trade. Seems like the guaranteed 5th year is as good a plum as the opt-out. He is an innings stud, but career over 1.3 baserunners per inning. They feel a mini-generation apart as Orioles, but he and John Means were both born in April 1993.
  3. Good call on Smith - my guess is the "hand-picked by this regime factor" will make his coin toss favorable. On the first paragraph, it kind of is until it isn't. Somewhere in the process you voluntarily call up your Machado/Schoop (before you are required to, even!) and try to win a bunch of games for 5+ years. I might go so far as to say the 40-man for prospects has not that great correlation to star upside on your farm, because any star good enough should play their way on to your 26 before the 40 becomes a technical requirement. Or the other way around, a prospect still in prospe
  4. Baseball is a rotational game. Hopefully the prognosis for everyone is correct...with the in-season timelines for even lower grade core injuries, surgery sounds a little daunting. As baseball has started tapping the Draft Kings type resources, I wonder in time how far towards NFL practices MLB will become with OUT/DOUBTFUL/QUESTIONABLE, etc, etc. Baseball is so much squishier day to day, but imagine sharps would love any insight how Keegan Akin is feeling if they want to take a shot at Orioles +190 or some such any given day for him. The B-Ref picture gallery for the 2021 Oriole
  5. Pay no attention, indeed! (Minor League Baseball claims 6-5, 190). That is pretty fantastic to have a first digit 1 vs. 3 difference between sources! Anyhow, reading the write-up brought back up some Armando Benitez (6-4, 180 according to B-Ref) memories. Its exciting if any fastball this good has figured something out, or was helped to figure something out, and excited to see how he looks in Sarasota. Should he turf the curve if split change best? Kind of imagine he could get by with 2 pitches if fastball command good enough.
  6. Novembers will get interesting when the college guys from 2021/2022/2023 start needing protection. I guess the NCAA guys behind the Adley/Stowers locks might be borderline cases next year. Watson, Ortiz, Handley, Daschbach were the 250K+ collegians behind the Top Two from 2019, and I believe Grayson and Rom will synchronize with them. Players signed at age 18 or younger need to be added to their club's 40-Man roster within five seasons or they become eligible for the Rule 5 Draft. Players who signed at age 19 or older need to be protected within four seasons.
  7. I suppose Bundy falling to no guaranteed contract could happen. It happened last year to Hamels and Porcello, who were crowd-sourced for $10M+, and ended up with no job to their liking before spring. My guess is his youth might help him to something in the Galvis 1.5 to Iglesias 3.5 range, if Elias is limited to shopping in that not so rarefied air. I believe Bundy would have more upside than many of the other pitchers who will sell their 2022 performances that inexpensively. The way expectations have been set for 2022 in the handling of the best players, it feels a little bit acade
  8. How satisfied/dissatisfied would you be if the Innings Sponge acquired to open 2022 was from whatever shelf Dylan Bundy is on? Bundy himself is a young free agent at 28 (will turn 29 in a few days). It seems like ages ago that entering 2021, he was coming off a very successful 2020 and him vs. Gausman for most successful free agent to be for 2022 was a fair fight. His year went Trout/Rendon/2021 Angels bad but as far as I can tell the shoulder strain that ended his season after his August 24 game against us has not mushroomed to a bigger injury. He was not in anyone's Top 50 free
  9. B-Ref has Means at 9.7 WAR in his first 2.4 seasons, and with the missed time here and there within those seasons, I admit it caught me a little by surprise to see him at 5.0 WAR per 162 games. Whether he's a keeper for us or pipeline fodder, the 30-start Scout Badge would be nice for him to get. Even if Grayson can approach Jose Fernandez's brilliance (5.8 WAR per 162 games), Means' three Arb seasons aren't enough time for him to "Horse" together with him on peak Adley teams without Elias buying one or two FA years, which line up as Means' Age 32-33 seasons. Nola, Wheeler, and ev
  10. Nice job by Jonathan Mayo finding an angle to put context on the Top 30 lists and that almost half the guys named in the story will run out of musical chairs. i have heard Cleveland named near top of teams that might have a transaction or two to make either to consolidate talent or walk back to lower minors guys not yet needing protection. I recognize the first guy in the second half of their list as one of the Akron players who helped them past the Baysox in the Eastern League championship, and imagine Koby was still in Cleveland when some of those infielders were acquired. Br
  11. Yeah, not so great. Some extra research discovers January 15 is the open date of the 2022 international signing period. I was comparing 1/15/2022 to 6/10/2020. Baseball in general was offline then due to COVID, and probably will be again in two months absent unexpected good news on the CBA front. The international signing period I don't believe will be delayed however bad the MLB and MLBPA negotiations are, so it will be one baseball-positive thing happening to enjoy in the dead of winter.
  12. The Means infield flyball observation does at least seem to track...2nd of 129 at 100 IP. https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=100&type=2&season=2021&month=0&season1=2021&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2021-01-01&enddate=2021-12-31&sort=8,d
  13. Yea, I agree that bit doesn't hold up well under review. He wrote dead pull hitter in air and on ground, though Fangraphs Pull% for 2021 sees RMC 69th of 132 qualifiers in Pull%.
  14. I didn't know Forbes had a guy like Tony Blengino who I more remember from FG as a baseball-only analyst. The bits about Mountcastle's production being almost all pull side, and Means as a pop-ups All-Star aren't that surprising, but not stuff I'd seen singled out much before this skim.
  15. Here is Trezza a year ago on the Maikol/Basallo headliners - looks like January 15 was the league calendar day. https://www.mlb.com/news/orioles-2020-21-international-prospects If it is the same ~January 15, 2022, it is starting to settle this Talent Acquisition moment may be somewhat of a twin to the Kjerstad draft, where for non-baseball reasons baseball is stopped except that here is this one thing actually happening. Here is a skim the surface piece with paragraphs on the Top 4 or so leading lights...sounds like Yankees repeating the Almost All on JASSON type move. http
  16. BP put out their Marlins list recently and pegged their arms: 1-MEYER, 3-EURY PEREZ, 4-EDWARD CABRERA, 5-SIXTO, 6-FULTON, 8-EDER I believe Heyman reported the other day they are willing to listen on one of their 3+ guys Alcantara/Pablo Lopez/Elieser Hernandez. Those nine guys make quite a Supporting Cast for their 23-year-olds Trevor Rogers and Jesus Luzardo. I think any team looking for a 2022 CF upgrade that also has money for good players looks to Starling, Buxton and even Laureano perhaps before Mullins. I hope the Orioles mean to ascend at least as fast as the Marlins,
  17. The CBA might delay the real Rule 5 draft, but with the need for Clubs to genuinely set their 40-man rosters as November 20 nears, Elias can kind of sort of have his own fake Rule 5 draft with everyone trying to sneak their Hunter Harveys through. In terms of chance to make 2022 OD roster, I think Baker/Garcia about same as Tyler Wells on true talent, and bonus that the Club isn't even encumbered by the need to keep them on the big league roster, etc. Coming up on Elias' 3rd anniversary, I rewatched his introductory press conference on YouTube recently and Jim Hunter on the post-inte
  18. I see these labels on both guys today... Most Likely Future Role: Multi-inning reliever Ceiling: 5th starter ...and absent roster/rules changes to refurbish the Starting Pitcher's role in the game feel like they are the same thing. Chad Green and Jonathan Loaisiga >> Nestor Cortes and Corey Kluber, and how Hall, Bradish, Baumann, T. Wells land in middle distance the next few years doesn't feel super important. Obviously fantastic if Hall can break through that 40-75 pitch ceiling, but after covid and the stress fracture his opportunity to throw 30 x 100 pitches every 6t
  19. Are we going to need Tampering rules for executives? It'll be juicier if the Brewers and Mets line up on a trade anytime in 2022! https://theathletic.com/2948503/2021/11/10/the-mets-real-target-remains-david-stearns-whoever-they-hire-as-gm-this-winter-sources/?source=emp_shared_article One meta-question I have for Tony, or anyone who cares to opine, is how much has credit shifted the last ~15 years between Club and Player for the performance that gets on to the field? Steve Cohen seems to care more about David Stearns than Max Scherzer. When I was an Orioles Hangout lurker/
  20. When Colorado had him repeat the Eastern League in early 2019, he let up 41 hits in 68 innings. That AA half-season cherrypick is familiar to me as Baumann 2019 (45 hits in 70 IP), and Bedard 2002 (43 hits in 68.2 IP). But then promotion to mile-high elevations, utter ineffectiveness and TJ, so who knows what's left? 5-9, 201 on B-Ref maybe a bit of a rarity for a pitcher. "Small" right hander Jean Pinto listed 5'11, 175.
  21. I enjoy that he threw 167 minor league innings in 2018. How did his arm not fall off? If he can get outs, he will be asked to get more outs.
  22. Surprising seeing Cowser only mediocre in the Barrel% axis - I'd guess he would rely on a ton of barrels to get to a decent xwOBA. Also Servideo pairing a strong estimated xwOBA with a poor Barrel rate...that strikes me as an all or nothing slugger kind of blend, which cuts against my early impressions of him as really patient, but without much pop.
  23. JMU has a showcase series against Florida State to open the year, and will be in Towson/College Park/Fairfax at various even more local points as their spring goes along. https://jmusports.com/sports/baseball/schedule/2022 Mid-February NCAA opening night maybe a good prop bet vs. new CBA
  24. CIN and OAK sell offs (pardon me, re-tools) might be partly November happenings depending on how urgently the ownership groups feel called to go fetal position in cash owed. As a group, Castillo, Mahle, S. Gray, Bassitt, Montas, Manaea make a bunch of rivals for say the Stromans and Eduardo Rodriguezes of the world. It feels very likely the Reds would also be "willing to listen" on their sub-Castillo guys. They might like Mahle and Winker a little better as keepers, but I don't feel those guys are far ahead of Castillo, if at all. I am feeling good about the 2022 Orioles
  25. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-roster-dominos-start-to-fall-for-the-reds/ The Fangraphs write-up. If Castillo, why not Mahle or Winker? If the covid pinch and some years of extra spending for wildcards is affecting CIN like OAK, that's a nice complement to free agency for the other 27-28 clubs. Suarez and Moustakas might enter that Hosmer zone where a prospect could be dangled to tempt someone with cash to pay those guy's salaries. Sonny Gray is better than Miley, but probably wouldn't take a ton to acquire. Poor Votto - franchise icon returns value on his 9-figure deal
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