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OrioleDog

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OrioleDog last won the day on December 29 2019

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About OrioleDog

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    Plus Member since 12/05
  • Birthday 2/5/1973

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    Arlington, VA
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  • Favorite All Time Oriole
    Eddie Murray

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  1. I hope for more down rotation as we get to unveil our Better Than Meh basket. 2019 Games Started by Class Maybe Good: 57 by Bundy/Means Meh: 33 by Cashner/Wojo Hopeless: 72 by....a hopeless list, including Broken Cobb 2020 Hopes Maybe Good: 32 by Means Better Than Meh: 80? Stewart, Akin, Bailey, Lowther, Kremer, Baumann, Mattson Meh: 50 by Bionic Cobb/Wojo Some of the BTM basket will prove to be hopeless of course, but it'll still be a bit more interesting to watch than last year's batch.
  2. He's basically trying out for the league, and very likely the subset of ~85 win wildcard contenders who have back of rotation problems they don't want to deter their push for 88-90 wins. I think his contract is hopelessly underwater, so the real delta is - if he is decent - do we have to subsidize 50% or 80% of it for a token player? If he is good for 1.5 seasons maybe he'd fetch something interesting in July 2021, but if he's cromulent at all for July 2020 or next offseason, I am guessing Elias will try to move him along. Year 1 was when we needed him good - now it is just a debt note.
  3. Kiley McDaniel with a long piece at FG: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/whats-next-for-the-astros/ His characterization of Elias's AGM portfolio as "everything but the MLB team" and a pioneering structure was a new perspective to me. And if we worry about brain drain of our guys, it is a good point Stearns in Milwaukee may be ahead of our ex-Astros if they try to woo someone back. He's accomplished more and come closer to finishing a job with his starter team.
  4. I was curious how much of baseball OAA might hint is fielding, so spreadsheeted the last 3 years for which Savant has published both IF and OF. The Astros were 1st at +71 The Orioles were 30th at -103 So 174 outs at the estimated 0.6 runs/out gives 104 runs, suggesting ~35 runs/season defensive difference between the best and worst teams. Across the 3-years, the Astros outscored their opponents by 739 runs and the Orioles were outscored by 620. 104/1359 gives 7.5%, leaving 92.5% for batting, pitching and catcher defense. The Astros especially lorded over the AL here - Brewers, Reds, Cubs, Diamondbacks, Braves and Rockies were the next six. Angels got AL second place at +31, and the third place AL finishers were down at +17.
  5. Haha, I honestly don't know. He is The Man Time Forgot roster-wise, non-Davis category. MASN's November report was expected ready for Spring Training - we are I guess coming to the weeks where ambulatory or not will become known. I imagine we want him taking his turns in April/May if he can, and he has a league to impress if he wants to get out of town. Jake Odorizzi's made a nice living 5-and-diving and Cobb can have a shot at that here now, unlike 2018 when Buck maybe had 200-inning visions dancing in his head.
  6. YES had Buck on for about 8-9 minutes a couple days ago. The bittersweet quote that had me just about laughing out loud when the interviewer asked if the draft pick penalties were harsh enough went something like, as Buck was minimizing a bit, "well, there are things you can reallocate from other departments to make yourself well". Here's to the 2023 Astros resembling the 2018 Orioles!
  7. Means has earned the Opening Day honor, but the Yankees are the one lineup in the league with four RHB up top (LeMahieu, Judge, Torres, Stanton) that perhaps won't be messed with. In the category of old dogs and new tricks, would love to see Givens open for Cobb in game 2.
  8. It's long odds both become stars, but there's still big deltas if the one that doesn't can do Arthur Rhodes/Zack Britton type things. My broadest perspective today on the Top 4 IP guys on the peak Rutschman teams is: -the better Rodriguez/Hall outcome -the better Hancock/Rocker outcome -the best Akin/Kremer/Baumann/Lowther/everyone else outcome -John Means? With the daydream Rocker can do the Strasburg 11 months to the show thing and the 2022 core will merit deploying the talent that fast.
  9. Rooting for this - would add plenty of entertainment value to waiting out these last couple seasons. I hope they hire him before a GM
  10. A survey of some Orioles relievers hand picked looking at ~3-year peaks and a few Year 4 results with B-Ref WAR Givens 2016-2018: 4.8 WAR. Year 4 = 0.6 WAR Britton 2014-2016: 9.2 WAR. Year 4 = 1.0 WAR Brach 2015-2017: 5.7 WAR. Year 4 = -0.1 WAR as Oriole, dealt to Atlanta Ray 2005-2007: 3.2 WAR. Year 4 = did not play in 2008 Ryan 2003-2005: 7.4 WAR. Year 4 = the one good year he gave Toronto. Benitez 1997-1998: 3.7 WAR, then was on Mets in 1999. It felt like longer with the many partial seasons, but we only had him two full years. Rhodes 1996-1998: 4.6 WAR. His 1995 and 1998 netted 0.0 WAR, so arguably a 2-year peak. He did have a second act as a star with Seattle. Myers 1996-1997: 4.8 WAR. He had seven 1-win seasons. Smith 1994 looms large in my memory, but it was just 38 innings as an Oriole with the strike. Olson 1989-1993 did successfully push his run past 3 years. 11.5 WAR across the five, with the lull in Year 3 Aase 1985-1986: 2.5 WAR. Year 3 = 8 innings pitched Tippy Martinez - a first look in adulthood at the B-Ref page of a childhood icon. That 3.3 WAR 1983 was his only season above 1.6 WAR and the last season he was in the black. His IP by year as an Oriole: 42/50/69/78/81/~59~/95/103 before the descent. That ~59~ in 1981 was a 105-game season for a 162-pace of 91. That is a trend!
  11. Forecaster reports he increased his change-up usage last year and got a lot (23%) of swinging strikes with it. He had a tale of two seasons platoon splits wise as in the worse first half he was near even (101 OPS+ allowed LHB and an atypical 110 OPS+ v. RHB). In the better 2nd half LHB feasted (141 OPS+), but he was back to the death to righties mode that is his good self (41 OPS+) Last year he faced 155 RHB and 105 LHB - 60% platoon advantage 2018 was 193/124 - 61% 2017 was 202/113 - 64% 2016 was 215/98 - 69%. He's better spotted (or opening?), even though he's our fireman. If we want to showcase him, find the RHB. I do draw some encouragement from reports of Yankees continued interest last year, but to an extent I feel he was used up for the good Buck teams - 3rd most RP IP MLB-wide his three full years. https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2018&month=0&season1=2016&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2016-01-01&enddate=2018-12-31&sort=8,d Nothing wrong with that - burning bright and dying fast isn't uncommon.
  12. Rosenthal reporting Buck got an Astros interview yesterday.
  13. I remember reading, 90% sure in one of Bill James's historical abstracts, about Tettleton's career and how underestimated he was. Teams didn't prize him, and whenever he went to a new team it got good. The 1988-1990 Orioles won 54, 87 and 76. The '90 Tigers won 79, then with him the 1991-1994 Tigers won 84, 75, 85 and went 53-62 in the strike year. The '94 Rangers were 52-62 in the strike year, then the 1995 Rangers were 74-70 in the abbreviated season with a World Series, and got Johnny Oates a division title with 90 wins in 1996, Tettleton's last year as a regular. That's some effect, but not as clear as I guessed it might be - fair chance of fuzzy memory.
  14. http://mlb.mlb.com/fan_forum/podcasts/index.jsp?c_id=mlb&podcast=statcast_podcast Architect Tom Tango is interviewed by Petriello in the podcast this week, and digs into some of those nuances. One of his comments was along the lines of...it probably doesn't matter if Billy Hamilton is dogging it, the infielder is just going to be thinking Billy Hamilton. And vice versa, even if Brian McCann is busting it.
  15. Here's a Hays tidbit that seems promising. https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/upgrading-a-deserved-barrel/ Sifting through various sorts here, Hays was 2nd tightest in Launch Angle standard deviation, which I think is good generally. He also only got 5.5% barrels when this particular formula expected 10.6% making him fourth unluckiest. It was a pretty good month anyway. Entering 2020 my biggest Hays question is "Are you *really* a CF?", but it's nice to see a hint the bat may be potent enough to play better in a corner even if he isn't.
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