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About OrioleDog

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    Plus Member since 12/05
  • Birthday 2/5/1973

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    Eddie Murray

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  1. https://www.milb.com/milb/news/toolshed-40-man-protection-preview/c-311901856 MILB with a few paragraphs on all 30 teams....their guesses on our four close calls is: 39th man - McKenna Bubble - Fenter v. Sedlock (~Pedigree or Performance) Last 1 out: Cumberland As OHIO is my Villar search zone, here's one snippet that caught my eye: Cleveland Indians (38) 2. Triston McKenzie 14. Luis Oviedo 16. Daniel Johnson 17. Scott Moss Outlook: This could be tight, so perhaps expect some moves from the Indians if they want to clear out 40-man space.
  2. If we could build to Luis Urias, they could even use Villar. Villar, Bundy and Givens still perhaps short, though we do have more prospect depth now to work towards one bluer chip.
  3. Sounds like a profile that as opener could propel Grayson Rodriguez to a string of 20-win seasons as Drungo's "Winner". Or a little more sincerely, a Lowenstein to Baumann's Roenicke. Curious perspectives here - if he and Means are both in the rotation, how much do you care about separating them with a fast RHP, juggling schedule so they don't both pitch the same series, etc.
  4. Indeed yes. And probably no coincidence that it is Trevor Bauer's team, not to mention one that has struggled with run prevention across the long term.
  5. I read one overview type piece that wondered if the Orioles or Tigers would consider Didi because literally EVERYONE has a shortstop. There's an early report of Reds interest there (limiting their potential Villar interest with Galvis already aboard), but that leaves Jose Iglesias homeless. The Tigers used Jordy Mercer at utility when they started using Willi Castro, so those seem to be the veteranosity shortstop options if we tilt Villar back towards 2B or don't have him at all, and Iglesias/Castro prefer 400 AB's to a bench role on a better team.
  6. We'll see. I think if O'Day or the market thought he could be the good version of himself for 60-70 innings he'd be making triple that or more, and these contract terms are everyone knowing the score. If I had to predict how many IP will O'Day have on 9.1.2020, I'd have a hard time going past 30-35. But he'd be on my short list of explicit guesses for 2020 Postseason Holds leaders.
  7. Growth mindset blue ribbon for last offseason. I imagine the place in St. Louis Means went/is going to again is Driveline-adjacent. There's hundreds (probably thousands) of aspiring MLB arms who are essentially individual contractors working on their craft. I would say union contractors but I think guys off 40-man and still in the minors aren't Union yet. The game is in the process of digesting the best ideas from all these workshops, and then regimenting that for all their org's pitchers, but I think some of the best stuff in the next few years is still going to come from guys like Means seeking on their own. It'll be for the cameras and metrics to discern which pitchers have truly improved a lot fast, but I do imagine Means-like surprises in the next couple years may be a little more abundant than usual. Proof of concept has kind of been given by Bauer, Ottavino, etc, and in time data will drive pitch design on a larger scale. Ben Lindbergh and Travis Sawchik's book on the frontier of player development ended on the note of the main Driveline guy bantering on Twitter with Trevor Bauer about his dream of becoming an MLB pitching coach, and it being about the only thing he'd give up the lab for - I'm legitimately curious to see if that ends up happening.
  8. I never realized when O'Day was a good Oriole how much Joe Smith is a very similar pitcher until seeing how prominently the Astros featured him this October, despite just 70 regular season innings across 2018-2019. I think the lesson is playoff juggernauts seem to think it worthwhile to cultivate having this kind of guy ready in September/October. If he wants to and can still attain high fall effectiveness year by year, I feel like O'Day may have the opportunity to enjoy a Federer/Nadal-only-really-try-at-Grand-Slams phase of his career. His hip and body probably can't take more than those couple dozen innings annually anyway.
  9. Tilting again at this windmill, how about we help the Red Sox keep Mookie Betts while meeting new GM Bloom's goal (not mandate, mind you) of avoiding the Competitive Balance Tax? Davis with a $23 cap number owed 3/63 + deferred stuff Rusney Castillo with 1/14 to go (though I think this is the one that doesn't count against their CBT) Dustin Pedroia with a $14 cap number and 2/25 to go Those are the two glaring ones - in view of the goals, they perhaps now regret the 3/51 to go on World Series hero Nate Eovaldi. Davis vs. Pedroia/Eovaldi saves them $8M on the CBT in 2020. The total outlay for the Boston trio is $90M over the remainder of their contracts. So for the Orioles it is $27M extra over the 3 years, maybe less over the longer term if any of the Davis deferrals could be sent as well. We get Nate Eovaldi to tinker with, and Rusney Castillo out of his artificial prison. He very likely can't play at all, but has been meh at AAA the last couple years and may have been an idol of Yusniel Diaz's youth. Also, "Oriole" Dustin Pedroia.
  10. Anticipating NCAA at 1-2 this June, I already kind of peg him as the last piece to blend into the 2022 and onward group. The storybook would be breaking in about 10 years to the day after Machado (8.9.2012 debut), again buttressing a surprise contender in August. That'd give him 2.8 minor league seasons to work through 4 levels, assuming he earns Delmarva in the spring.
  11. If he makes it, his Felix-type King's Court section has to be the Bauhaus.
  12. As durable as he became, Jones did miss August 2008 with a broken left foot from a foul ball, and September 2009 with a left ankle sprain, so I'm open to the idea Hays's ultimate level of brittleness is still unknown. I think the aging curve vs. Jones is a pretty big separator though.
  13. Since the 1st round pick-less 2014 year, we've tabbed 1-25 Stewart, 1-36 Mountcastle, 1-27 Sedlock, 1-21 DL Hall, 1-11 Rodriguez, 1-1 Rutschman, with 2020's 1-2 pick TBD. In 2022 it'll be the Top Four prospects Age 22/23/24/25 seasons, and they'll all be at the MLB minimum. Martin, Torkelson, or Hancock might contribute that year if we go NCAA again. A lot of the rest is details, especially if the group can earn an A free agent's attention over the next 24 months. We didn't have but Roberts/Bigbie/Matos/Ponson when Tejada signed. Even Means/Hays/Diaz/Harvey might be able to hang with that quartet.
  14. A little of it is the WAR is a counting stat thing....their projection has him at 150 games only. Steamer might expect 2B playing time to diminish faster near 30 as well. To confess my own bias, some of the bearishness is Curse of the Ironman type stuff. Cal's accomplishment is so legendary, but seeing how today's best teams are assembled, I'm kind of at a worldview of if a team plays a guy who isn't a legitimate MVP candidate 160+ games, it mostly signals a lack of enough average players. Round numbers can be attained (and perhaps rewarded in Arb) in marginal games 145-162, and fans get extra entertainment and the security of Markakis, Jones, Villar being there every day. I do think players perform better when they have the comfort of knowing they are in, and some of the art of excellence for 2022 and beyond will be developing players who can maintain a high level of play even when being shuttled day by day and even inning by inning as machine learning takes Earl's index cards as far as they can go.
  15. A 2020 I'm fascinated to watch unfold. I've been on Team Senioritis with him - it would have been nice if he could have done Vlad/Eloy-type organization embarrassing things but he didn't. I hope to be good in 2022. I expect virtually all rookies to be bad major leaguers for awhile at first, and do see a considerable delta between getting him ~1000 PA's of experience and ~500 PA's before Opening Day 2022. There will be information on this by May. Would twin spring training extensions and a Mountcastle/Hays/Diaz opening day outfield be a 99th percentile outcome, or maybe just 95th?
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