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Everything posted by OrioleDog

  1. Rosenthal just had the Cash interview postgame, laying out the critique, particularly the bit about Anderson letting in runs six straight games. Cash gave the company line, "Everything enters decisions; we value information; makes sense to avoid any pitcher facing a Dodger hitter three times". One specific in Cash quote about Anderson having been "arguably best reliever in MLB last 2 years" an interesting choice of timeframe. I do think a fair question is how adroitly, if at all, were Rays able to reassess guys day to day effectiveness. Kenley's arguably best reliever in MLB last TEN years, and ya know... I guess gotta dance with who brung ya. Snell - "I believe in me, I didn't walk nobody. For most of that game I was dominating every outcome possible. I felt confident in how I adjusted, and what I was going to be able to do a third time" Dodgers top 4 were 1-for-16 with 11K his four passes through the order. A-Rod says these guys are ruining MLB.
  2. Postgame show reporting the Turner 8th inning pull due to a positive covid test result.
  3. So much easier on the eyes Mookie in the Dodger blue. Delighted for Kershaw to escape the Peyton/Ovechkin box.
  4. Just caught up on the DVR and we're gonna have the mother of all anecdotes for TTOP contrarians. It was something to behold - Snell the game of his life. I paused to listen to the Cash dugout interview Top 4, and he was just like, "Yeah, he's going great, and now the offense needs to support him". 1000% - that is code for my decision matrix insists relief aces get Mookie at batter 19 if the game is close. Reinforced after the move happened as Buck/Smoltz reported Cash was not bashful in pregame production meeting saying this is what would happen in this scenario. Watching Snell fluster at the move very human - he had to know it was coming, even if he got Barnes out on #18, he was only earning gray area with Mookie as the tying run. It doesn't help the process Anderson looks used up like mid-June Brach in a bad Buck year. This completely plays into my Rays psychobabble that for all the 2% edges - is Snell really going to live and die with this team? The preponderance of the evidence says the science of the decision indubitably correct, but boy, I may have to go looking for some Buck post game. (In 2021, if we care about maximizing Wins at the major league level, it won't be correct much for any Orioles SP to get 19 on unless the score is lopsided, but I'm sure growing arms will get some leash). Had the Rays won this series with this decision portfolio, it woulda been interesting to see how much copycat utilization happened right away next year.
  5. These are more fun if you project 90th+ percentiles for all the good players and don't try to brute force it buying wins at $10M/pop. All's we need is another 16-team field, Grayson is Jose Fernandez, Means is Cliff Lee, Adley is Posey, etc. Beat the Twins in the 1st round and get on a roll. Ye olde Bauer/LeMahieu rentals can't add value anything like that.
  6. 2021 midseason moves will probably be crazy. The whiffing in the NYP suggests a conservative initial assignment, but also one where hopefully he's Barry Bonds grown man to the children he'll be playing with. A good Stowers '21 I think pushes through three levels; two is making par, maybe.
  7. I am guessing he's so beloved by Blood in part because he executes the very high arm slot thing that made even Verlander say uncle after a couple years. I have never seen him pitch, but am kind of visualizing our mini-Glasnow. Third pitch, schmird pitch. Smoltz last night on Glasnow kind of gave the viewpoint it's unsurprising he's bad at anything feel as all that he has gets put into high fastballs and low curves on every pitch. Taking anything off to hit a spot is contrary to the essence of who he is. I'll be curious to hear Palmer on these guys as the Orioles work toward today's assembly line. Palmer's a bit of a blindspot for me repertoire wise - I've heard him self-describe as a high fastball pitcher, and I think the curve his primary secondary, but don't have a real clear idea how he fleshed out his arsenal. I'm pretty sure he was more than today's Glasnow though.
  8. Back to the Snell/Fairbanks/Anderson/Castillo even numbered game quartet to try and set up Buehler (and Kershaw?) v. The World Wednesday night. The Dodgers have clearly dented the relief aces, but I don't look for any process change in Game 6. This feels like it should be over 4-1 but for the gods putting their thumbs on the scale last night - an excellent bonus baseball gift.
  9. Hoping Snell can hold it, just so we can get the real truth about Kenley. We've heard a lot of PR this World Series, but the actions speak louder than words moment approaches.
  10. It's fun watching the best having to try their best. MLB having gone full NBA this year we only get it now. I think Anderson got squeezed on that 1-1 to Pederson to set up the rest of that at-bat; had Lowe been able to pull off that catch, it would have been maybe the greatest shift extra out ever. Rays streak of leads after 6th inning now at risk, I think they may need Glasnow to get to 27 outs tonight.
  11. Urias might have had the star turn with a dozen or more K's in a full allotment, but the pull before Yandy on Batter #19 and 4 2/3 innings TTOP orthodoxy in its pure form. But the bullpen is a chink in the armor. Brandon Lowe repping for the Terps!
  12. Maybe I am feeling shiny new toy syndrome or over-happy we get one last (LOL) Mets deal done before a regime change, but I'm feeling my brakes pumped a little by Smith's fall here. SEC late bloomer that validated his draft year growth his first full pro year, earned an org Pitcher of Year award and some AA success - I'm a bit more excited to see him pitch next year than a few of the guys ahead of him. One other layer of the onion is that Elias trades have more often gone down the platter fork in the road, and Smith is the first time he's closed for one guy with a marketable asset. Heck, I even have an Easton Lucas candle lit for One Guy trades, though accepting the 30 clubs general consensus Villar was a dicey tender.
  13. Feels like Mookie could be Rickey if Mookie wanted to be Rickey (and could secure the Dodgers permission). Would be nice to see Buehler have to try hard all season some season, but I don't think circumstance is likely to give that anytime soon. Rays offense was a lot better v. LHP this year, so will be interesting to see if Urias doing the Corbin thing this year can really take a stardom step tomorrow against the fully rested Anderson/Fairbanks/Castillo ace. For all that we're all in on the high spin 4S thing, I do notice Dodgers Treinen/Graterol/May all worm burners in key roles.
  14. You could squint glass half full and see a Severino non-tender as a leading indicator Adley's coming in May as I feel he ought to assuming he shows he's still himself in March/April. I do feel like 2B Alberto and 3B Ruiz are kind of when they have the Bottom 2 on American Idol, etc and one is about to be eliminated. I think RZNJ has the right Ruiz take, and the Elias history probably doesn't hurt.
  15. I think at higher velocity still change ahead of breaking ball for most pitchers that want to be more than someone who just airs it out a couple innings at a time. One of the confirmation bias (for me) anecdotes I got in this respect this month was Ian Anderson. One of his starts the announcers gave the regular yarn about how as a prep kid he dominated fastball/curve. The story ran as soon as the Braves got him - it was...here's the change we need you to develop. Four years and a few months later he deploys 48% FB, 31% CH, 21% CU, and now after four years of pro schooling (non-NCAA flavor) he is where he is. Maybe Tyler Glasnow can do it 150+ with just Fast and Break, but he's also like the Michael Oher of pitching humans. That our big Texas kid has some of the glowing changeup reports is exciting stuff, and maybe gives a tool to outplay Tyler Glasnow sometime in the hopefully not too distant future.
  16. It is in the last 30 seconds of this 50-minute podcast, but FWIW they had the Hartford (Rockies AA) play by play guy as a guest Nevin expert, and skimming Vavra at the end he said he thought Vavra would have had a good chance to make the Yard Goats this year (i.e., do the Low-A to AA double bump in 2020). The other Nevin nuggets were August 2019 Eastern League Player of the Month, and giving the near 1B only 2019 positional context as in part being driven by having Colton Welker as a teammate.
  17. I gotta admit I had not known Will Smith led the Dodgers in OPS over Mookie and Seager from C. Ensconced at 5th ahead of the reigning MVP against all comers, DH'ing when Kershaw needs his bestie. He doesn't have the pedigree of the Posey/Wieters/Zunino/Bart cohort, but he'll give some slow playing catcher talking points if we get the long wait.
  18. Would you trade him for Tony Gonsolin? Seeing tonight's Dodgers opener earlier this month, his build reminded me of Kremer's (medium torso atop strong legs). Checked the B-Ref draft history, and both 2016 Dodgers picks from small Western colleges. 14th round Kremer got 147500; 9th round Gonsolin got 2500 (I think this was a year your Top 10 picks had the cap, so Gonsolin seems to have been a discount guy for someone else). https://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?team_ID=LAD&year_ID=2016&draft_type=junreg&query_type=franch_year&from_type_jc=0&from_type_hs=0&from_type_4y=0&from_type_unk=0 I don't remember all the names kicked in the Machado trade July, but figuring one or the other of these two may have been part of it.
  19. I can't find Steve's comment about Globe Life catching OPACY for postseason games if the WS stretches 7 (perhaps a different thread), but also in that spirit I heard this morning that Corey Seager is tied with Joey Gallo and Rougned Odor for most HR at the stadium in its history. Also that Nick Anderson had 0 ALCS strikeouts after whiffing some 40-ish% in season. Hopefully his needle is back closer to Full, and he'll do a lot of burning bright to get this towards seven games.
  20. Boy was Amsinger on MLB at lunchtime yammering about how the Rays might need Snell for 120 pitches tonight getting stuff wrong that seems to be very obvious here. The off days are back - the Rays have a near must win tonight. The Dodgers are giving Buehler the extra rest for 3/7 and kind of sort of just goofing off tonight. The Rays didn't get to use their Anderson/Fairbanks/Castillo "#1 starter" last night. Snell was salty at the quick (to him) hook late in the ALCS, but he should be ready again tonight. I think the Rays feel he's their worst pitcher on a per-inning basis they aim to use in the first 9 innings tonight.
  21. Empire State Programming Network. It helps me a little to ponder urbanization as the demographic trend of mankind, and the East North America megacity as one thing, but yeah. Haven't looked at the piece, but I hope the one where Babe Ruth's caught stealing for the last out to lose Game 7 got highlighted, but probably not. New York being New York, there's even a long form apologia https://newyork.cbslocal.com/2011/07/29/by-the-numbers-judging-babe-ruth’s-attempted-steal-of-second-base-in-the-1926-world-series/
  22. I'll have just the regular Game 7 rooting interest with Nick gone. I suppose I could arcanely root for the Dodgers because I think the odds of Turner leaving are greater if he gets his dogpile, and he's a favorite pre-Lindor Cohort target if we Werth'ed anyone this year. I think until/unless the Dodgers get one Turner will basically do Tim Wakefield style auto-renews. I have imagined he could be out there this offseason at Dodgers discretion going towards Seager/Lux on left side, but Lux's 2020 hasn't really positioned him for that. Willy Adames being a huge WS hero could be fun, because I think he's soon the next Archer type piece out the door to clear Wander space, and they'd still do it. Of course Adames heroics would increase their return, and bargaining position to try and do Acuna/Albies things to Wander so that might not be the best thing to cheer for. Much less risk of that though as Wander did at least get about 40x Acuna in the beginning.
  23. Urias in for top of 7th with Nick's spot leading off and he's switched out for Camargo. O'Day fair shot for a moment as Braves have gone through a lot of guys to get first 18 outs.
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