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Jenius

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About Jenius

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    Plus Member Since 03/05
  • Birthday 11/23/1976

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    Gaithersburg, MD
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  1. Jenius

    Xavier Avery

    It's a valid concern, but keep in mind that Pedro Florimon is having a monster year at Frederick, Brandon Waring and Caleb Joseph and Bobby Stevens have looked very good there as well, and Ryan Adams was doing very well before his injury. Also, Ronnie Welty has been a very solid and consistent hitter at Delmarva, and has showed dramatically improved plate discipline (the big red flag from 2008). Even Tyler Kolodny has been coming on lately, though he was doing so poorly early on that his numbers still look a little crooked. My point is that there isn't a huge chasm after Snyder...just no sure things. But I'd bet that at least one or two of the guys I mentioned turns into an interesting prospect at the higher levels, and that's not counting the talented-but-enigmatic Rowell and Henson.
  2. Out of all the guys that haven't been promoted yet from this discussion, the one that most puzzles me is Joe Esposito. I'm not sure what else he has to prove as a 24-yo striking out 2 batters an inning at low-A ball. Esposito seems like he could be another late bloomer ala Hoey or McCrory or Chris Britton, though I hope the end result for him is better than what it has been for those guys.
  3. Yep, that's generally the case. Although it is a small sample, generally the guys who go on to become successful ML'ers actually improve their numbers from A or A+ to AA. All 3 guys you mentioned (excluding Markakis who is already a star) are in that category...so this isn't a reflection of the transition to AA being difficult, but more an indication of their prowess, IMO.
  4. Jenius

    Avery overmatched

    You're overlooking one huge mitigating factor here - the South Atlantic League historically trends toward an inordinately high K rate. For example, 2008 K rates: South Atlantic League (A) - 20.2% Carolina League (A+) - 18.5% Eastern League (AA) -17.9% International League (AAA) - 19.3% This cannot be entirely explained by lower-level players striking out more...I believe there is an umpiring factor here. I'm most interested in seeing how players do when they get to Advanced-A and above. For context on this year's K numbers, the SAL K rate so far this year is about 21% (K rate being calculated as % of total PAs, not ABs), so even higher than in 2008. So, that said, Avery's K rate is still ridiculously high (44%), he hasn't walked even once, and he seems to be rolling over everything when he does make contact (86% GB rate). Kolodny is also putting up some startling peripherals, namely a 38% K rate and just 1 walk so far. Other than those two, there aren't any particularly concerning K issues for the Shorebirds. Let's not get carried away and make blanket statements like "We have bad hitters at Delmarva". Especially a few weeks into the season.
  5. Apologies if I put words in your mouth, if that is the case then I don't get your logic. To me, the logical extension of a team making a "big mistake" is that the team was foolish. And the logical extension of a "big mistake" in releasing a minor league player is that player eventually getting to the big leagues and making the team regret losing them. As for the coaching, those are fair points, I suppose. Time will tell. The fact is, though, that Tripp's K rate has been an issue even when he was hitting well at Delmarva, and it is rare for guys fairly far into their development age-wise (like, 22+) to suddenly make a dramatic improvement in their K rates. And again, the release appears to be for deeper reasons than his on-field performance, so this argument may ultimately be pointless. In this case, you are the one who apparently has "no idea" about Tony's credentials and who he has access to (as Crazysilver03 pointed out).
  6. First of all, you are arguing two different things here. Let's address your original argument: Your argument is that the O's made a "big mistake". My counterargument (and Ruzious') was that this simply has no merit. His chances of making it to the ML, objectively speaking, are minute. This is based on empirical evidence.You've now changed your argument to point at the players "replacing" Tripp at Bowie and Frederick. The players you listed are all fringe prospects at best. They may or may not outperform what Tripp would have done at those levels. This absolutely does not prove that the O's made a "big mistake" by releasing him. According to Tony there were other issues at play here. Bottom Line: Are the corner OFs we have at Frederick and Bowie substantially better than Tripp? Probably not. Does this mean that Tripp is a significant ML prospect that the O's were foolish to release? Absolutely not.
  7. Jenius

    Per MASN: Bowie roster

    Yeah, I'm not sure where the Bowie comment came from. Miclat's 21 years old and a decent prospect...he's not Hanley Ramirez. And he has all of 72 professional ABs (in short season ball). I'd be very happy if he played well enough at Delmarva to get some PT at Frederick down the stretch.
  8. Jenius

    Per MASN: Bowie roster

    Not really. Abreu, Tucker, and Paco Figueroa are all in the same approximate category - their age and production to this point indicate they are fringe prospects at best, but they also fit the profile of guys that could carve out a niche as a utility player if things break right for them. All three make excellent contact and are middle infielders, both of which work in their favor. Tucker seems to have the best shot, as he put up a very solid year at Bowie last year (perhaps deserving of a spot at Norfolk?) and can play almost every position. Abreu has an intriguing pop/speed combination that seemed to fizzle out a bit last season, and he continues to swing at (and hit) every pitch thrown near the plate. Figueroa was on a Tucker-like trend in 2007, but injuries have set him back severely and at 27, he's now essentially an organizational player. Also, unlike the other two he has shown no pop whatsoever. I assume Tucker will be playing 3B. But I'd like to see him get to Norfolk, and none of these other guys are likely to replace the (admittedly modest) numbers that Nettles and Finan put up.
  9. Miclat actually doesn't turn 22 until late July. Also, he played just 16 games at Aberdeen last year. No reason to rush him, if he has a great half season at Delmarva maybe he gets promoted. Hoes and Avery are a bit unusual - in fact, I think it would be quite rare for two guys in the same organization to jump from essentially a glorified high school league (GCL) to full season A ball. They will be two of the youngest players in the SAL. So probably not a fair comparison.
  10. This will be a very interesting team to watch, particularly on the hitting side. You have Hoes and Avery, who excelled in ST and earned a jump past short season ball. Both are fast and talented, but will Hoes ever develop any power and will Avery fix a swing that produced an alarming K rate in the GCL? Then you have four guys who seem to be at a crossroads in terms of their prospect status. Mahoney and Polanco are both 22 and both defensively challenged at 1B. They both probably need a big season to even be in consideration for prospect status. History shows that 1B/DH types have to really excel at the plate to get noticed. Then there's Kolodny, who is perhaps a notch above the first two but mysteriously saw his K rate skyrocket last year at Aberdeen. But Aberdeen can be a tough place (and the NYPL a tough league) for hitters, and given his age (21) I'm withholding judgment on him. He certainly shows solid raw power, patience, and a great work ethic and on field demeanor...he's the kind of player who is fun to watch and easy to root for. Finally, there's Miclat. Is he a Brian Roberts type? Could he be our SS of the future? On the pitching side, what kind of prospects are Zagone and Drake? So yeah, it'll be a really interesting season at Delmarva.
  11. Whoa there, let's not get carried away. Eaton was a pretty good prospect coming up - at age 21-22 between AA and AAA his ERA was under 3, BB/9 under 3, K/9 over 7.5. He then posted average to slightly above average numbers (so, better than replacement level) as a starter for six out of seven years between age 22 and 27. His last three seasons have stunk, but he's young enough to turn it around and I think a guy who posted six solid ML seasons deserves to get more of the benefit of the doubt than someone who has never even posted an above average season at AA or AAA (that would be Waters). Waters may be a replacement level pitcher but Eaton is at least that, with more of an upside given his early track record. This we can agree on...though as has already been stated, Berken may have his shot soon enough if/when one of the Norfolk starters is promoted. You're essentially comparing apples and oranges - last season there were really no good replacement options...all of our top pitching prospects were at least a year away, and Hayden Penn struggled with injuries and inconsistency. I think it's safe to assume that things will be different this time, especially if you read between the lines on all the recent comments by Trembley, Kranitz, MacPhail, etc. along the lines of "the cavalry are coming". In fact, Trembley has already suggested indirectly that Hendrickson is viewed as a temporary starter because he tends to get out of the gate quickly. I could see Simon getting a longer leash than Hendrickson and Eaton, but none of those three guys are guaranteed anything beyond April, as far as I can tell.
  12. Well, perhaps it would be more appropriate to say Berken had dominant stretches last year? Aside from that, all your points (and Tony's) make sense, thanks for the explanation. Of course, given that we have so many other good SP prospects in the system, I wouldn't complain about having another solid LR/MR guy, if that's what Berken ends up as.
  13. I respect your opinion...but just to play devil's advocate for a minute here, how does a 29-year old LHP with spotty control and weak all-around peripherals who has never seen any success above A ball compare to a 25-year old RHP who was dominant for most of his first time through AA, with excellent control and a solid K rate? I really don't see any comparison, and it still baffles me that anyone in this organization thought Waters would be a quality starting pitcher in the ML.
  14. Sorry, but your argument is full of holes. I could provide all kinds of empirical and historical evidence that players with Tripp's profile simply do not have success at the higher levels of the minors, let alone the majors. Let's be clear: Tripp's last two years were not good...2007 was good, 2008 was bad. He had a lot to prove going into 07, and he earned himself a longer look by doing what he did. But going into A+ at 23, he needed to build off that, and he failed to do so. Find me one decent major leaguer who struck out in more than 30% of his PAs at A ball...or better yet, don't bother looking, because you won't find one. And as for your assertion that he was "one of the top outfielders in the league", I'm not sure what you base that on - his OPS was a full 30 points below the league average - there were literally dozens of players well ahead of him in terms of overall production. C'mon folks, as fans we pull for guys like Tripp, and there's nothing wrong with wanting them to succeed, but any suggestion that the O's are making a huge mistake by releasing him is just silly. They are making a reasonable judgment, and if Tripp miraculously made it to the big leagues, it would be against all odds. That's where the evidence leads us, unfortunately.
  15. Jenius

    Ronnie Welty

    Chris Vinyard also played at Chandler-Gilbert. In fact, Welty and Vinyard put up rather comparable numbers there at about the same age (Welty's were a bit better, and he also has the advantage of being a better athlete and defender). Vinyard, perhaps not coincidentally, also got off to a fast start in his pro career in short season ball. Hopefully Welty sustains his success, and develops his plate patience, as he progresses into full season ball. That BB:K ratio is, as Tony said, extremely concerning. On the other hand, I agree with Stotle that you have to consider his progression during the season in that area. I'll be very interested to see how he does this year, particularly if he gets any extended time at Delmarva.
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