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Everything posted by nsw

  1. Guaranteed contract You win some and you lose some Let the Crusher go
  2. Dog days are over? New plan and autonomy Hope springs eternal
  3. Sisco got on base a lot.
  4. Tom Murphy was just DFAed by the Rockies. He mashed in the minors. I think the Rockies are making a mistake in dropping him: Tom Murphy Fangraphs page We should be on that.
  5. nsw

    Manny signs with Padres

    Manny made the absolute best choice. Or maybe just the best combination that would line up with how I would have approached it, in his shoes: * Sh*t ton of money. $300 million is plenty. * San Diego is finally under ownership willing to spend, won't be the meh of the NL West any more. * San Diego has an incredible farm system. 13 players with an FV of 50 or more - easily tops in the both leagues (Fangraphs). Philly would have been a great choice for maximal chance at a ring right now (IMO), but we don't know that the $$$ was there or if lifestyle factors came into play. That said, San Diego has a great chance to be excellent and make a run or two over the next few years. * San Diego is an amazing place to live - possibility the best climate in the US (CA taxes are high - but nice neighborhoods are expensive for a reason, and I refer you back to 300 million). I wonder if those few months in LA made him think, "Hey, I could get used to this." * Opt-out. San Diego's rebuild not panning out? Want the chance for even more money? Want to maintain some freedom? Here you go. * Less pressure-filled media market. Even though "he's the man," he's not going to get beat up down there like in other markets. As others have said, I'm stoked for him because now I don't have to cry in my beer about him being in the AL East. Best of luck, Manny!
  6. How about, "Jones acted in rational self-interest, as many of us would."
  7. I am excited that there are signs that the Oriole organization is waking up to modernity. We got lucky in our multi-year overperformance, and I loved it. But we all saw the train wreck coming; the surprise was that the piper payment was delayed for so long. The road forward includes investing in Latin America, putting more money into scouting and player development, paying attention to advanced metrics/prediction models. A seismic shift was needed, and we're getting it. We might also be seeing an ownership change if we are REALLY lucky. Cross your fingers and hope because it will be hard to ---- > Trust the Process.
  8. This. Trade Manny right now. Perhaps the thinking is that we need to wait to see if more teams can be drawn in as they assess their records/chances nearer the deadline, perhaps they want to see Manny as an O's All-Star once more, but we could end up with bupkis if Manny gets injured. Just think of Britton last season.
  9. I had forgotten about it being 4 years. Ouch! There's got to be a pony in here somewhere...
  10. nsw

    Starting a Pool

    32 games out at the break. First pick, ya'll!
  11. nsw

    Epic Fail

    Thanks for pulling this together. It does help us see how widespread the "unluckiness" is with our squad. I caution against comparing percentages, however. Example: Davis is at -42% and Brach is right behind at -38%. However using a broader metric, Davis is at -1.8 WAR and Brach is at 0.5. Brach is still quite useful, whereas Davis is not. Adam Dunn's -3.0 WAR in 496 PA in 2011 would seem to be our "target" for record-breaking non-achievement. Finally, a reason to watch the games!
  12. I've been wearing O's caps here in California for 25 years now. When people ask, "Are you from Baltimore?" I reply, "Of course, you don't think anyone would CHOOSE to be an Orioles fan, do you?" 🤣
  13. You nailed it. And gallows humor is pretty much all we have left. I would love to know how far "productive" players can fall (in terms of dismal performance over a certain # of plate appearances) at age 32 and still recover their heights. The only thing I could remember was David Ortiz's half-season swoon in 2009 at age 34 before being awesome for 6 more years. Pretty sure that's not a great comp, though..lol. Davis has been declining for 1.5 years plus. I am fine running Davis out there until the All-Star break and seeing if he can fix himself, but after that I would love to see us eat sunk cost and move on.
  14. Davis isn't giving money back, and he shouldn't be pressured to. The owners and the union have decided on a low initial salary pre-arb and then big, guaranteed money scores if you can stick around, even if you're not worth it any more. This hamstrings teams who make costly bets on the wrong guys, like the O's with Davis. But the idea is that you'll get some guys cheaper than you "should," and you'll overpay some guys. For example, Manny was paid $500K in 2015 and produced 6.6 WAR (wins were priced at $9.6m per in 2015, so $63 MILLION of surplus value). And that was for one year! He did the same thing in 2016! Nobody put pressure on Angelos to pay Manny an extra $50 million for performance... You win some, you lose some.. and our beloved O's paid the wrong guy the big bucks.
  15. Sell, sell, sell. Wait too long and watch Bundy get hurt a la Britton and lose value. We are not a couple players away, we are in a teardown situation. Manny, Schoop, Bundy, it all goes. Keep Sisco and that's it. Now all this supposes that there is a market for what we're selling. We aren't privy to info about what returns might be available and we never will be, but I sure pray that our front office/ownership finally admits that we're a .400 team without the rising prospects to be a .600 team. We need more upside potential in the system, and that means selling what we got for prospects and drafting high for a couple of years.
  16. I had to listen to part of the YES feed on MLB.TV since the MASN feed was glitchy this morning. The Yankee announcers went on and on about how great Buck was and how he is one of the deepest thinkers in the game. I am a huge fan of Buck and hope we keep him. I have found myself second guessing little things he does during the course of seasons, but taken in full, he is an A+.
  17. nsw

    vs. YANKEES, 4/06

    That was so cool! Amazing athleticism all around.
  18. Lot of bad luck here and some very good ABs by the Twins. Not worried.
  19. I am very pleased by this signing. I like Cobb to begin with, and if we aren't going to burn it down, we have to "go for it" (Orioles lackadaisical-style) this year.
  20. This was a great article. Guthrie was a horse for us and was one of my favorite Orioles during his tenure. Thanks for sharing.
  21. His K rate is the WORST of all qualifiers. Maybe he eats 90 innings for us and saves us the indignity of raiding independent leagues for SP.
  22. Swinging Strike rate at career low, contact rate at career high.. time to buy!
  23. Hellickson has one of worst FIP and THE WORST xFIP of all qualifiers. 5K/9, gopher ball specialist. 1.76 HR/9IP. I wouldn't take him on for free. Help me see the hidden genius here. This is the bad old days...
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