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POR

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  1. I am not sure what your point is, but you seem to be criticizing the Orioles for not selecting a player who was gone before they picked.
  2. Ackley was the second pick in the draft.
  3. Reyes had a nice year in the Sally League as an 18 year old. He was six months younger and on the same path at the time as Rafael Devers. Reyes is a big guy and at the time there was reason to think that more of the 36 extra base hits in 84 games would become homers. He never hit more than ten homers in a year and he could not get over the hump at Frederick, but there was reason to be optimistic about Reyes as a prospect heading into 2016.
  4. I had no recollection of Tettleton being as good as he was offensively after being traded from the Orioles until I looked up his stats. Three straight years of 30 plus homers and 100 plus walks out of the catching position. That is a fantasy baseball monster in a OBP league. He made less that $16 million for his career. He would have made more than that a year today if he was at his peak.
  5. POR

    Carolina League Prospects

    Here is my 2020 Frederick Keys prospect preview. Looking forward to seeing a lot of Grayson and the other prospects from the 2019 Shorebirds this year. Seeing Adley at least for a short while will be exciting. https://www.carolinaleagueprospects.com/2020/01/2020-frederick-keys-prospect-preview.html
  6. Since walks don't count when calculating total bases, it makes complete sense that someone who does not walk often would lead the league in total bases.
  7. I just don't understand this line of thinking. Maybe if Robert has a disappointing career, the White Sox would pay less for Robert especially in the early years. However, in the scheme of things, the amount is small. The amount they could be saving in year 7 and year 8 could be very significant. I think the Dallas Keuchel contact was a much bigger gamble. The two years of free agency that a team buys out, may put a player in a totally different position for his next contract. This does not apply so much to Robert because he is very young, but would apply more to a 24 to 25 year old that a team signs to an eight year contract. For example If Adam Jones was a free agent at 30, instead of 32. it may not been as clear that he was on the downside of his career and he potentially could have gotten a big contract that would not have been good.
  8. POR

    Catching

    At the beginning of the off season, Zack Collins looked like he had the chance to get a decent number of at bats for the White Sox in 2020 as a back up catcher and 1st base / DH. Since the White Sox resigned Jose Abreu and signed Yasmani Grandal and Edwin Encarnacion as free agents, Collins is completely blocked. Collins was the 10th pick in the 2016 draft as a bat first catcher. By all accounts, he has focused on his defense since his pro career started, but there is considerable debate whether his defense is good enough to stick at catcher in the majors. Collins will be 25 in February and had a .951 OPS in 88 games in AAA in 2019. He is a three outcome hitter that struck out 27% of the time and walked 17% in AAA. Fangraphs gives him a 70 power grade. The White Sox are focused on improving their bullpen now. A trade of Collins for Givens would make a lot of sense for both teams. Collins is exactly the type of player the Orioles should be giving a chance to while they rebuild. He won't cost a lot and if he works out, he is young enough to be in his prime when the Orioles are ready to compete. The Orioles could see what Collins does defensively at catcher in 2020. Ideally he wouId be able to stick at catcher. However, if not, I would not be surprised if his bat plays up if he is moved off of catcher and is more focused on hitting.
  9. The Astros have won 311 games and been in two world series in the last three years. It seems like a great return for being the worst team in baseball for three years (11-13). In addition, Yordan Alvarez is a little more than half a year into his MLB career. Kyle Tucker is a potential star that has barely started his MLB star. Forrest Whitley has been the most acclaimed pitching prospect is baseball for the last three years and has yet to start his MLB career. They have a ton of other interesting pitcher prospects plus Abraham Toro waiting for an opportunity.
  10. I do think that the Orioles will be doing a lot of piggybacking of pitchers at Delmarva, Frederick and Bowie in 2020. There will be two pitchers scheduled most games going between three and six innings. This is what the Astros do in the minors and now with all the pitchers that the Orioles acquired, I assume Holt will look to piggyback pitchers as well. The Orioles also drafted a number of late round college pitchers in 2019, and hopefully a few of them will emerge.
  11. I don't think win-loss record is high on the list that organizations look at in measuring pitchers. The Orioles could not give Cashner away before the 2019 season. With a lot of smoke and mirrors, Cashner pitched decently enough that the Orioles got a couple of prospects for him. It helped that the Orioles were willing to pay part of Cashner's remaining salary. That Prado and Romero were very young international players were likely not a negative to the Orioles who are year away from being competitive and looking to improve their international talent . Cashner was a disaster for the Red Sox and I would be shocked if he even get a major league contract for 2020. It is only in bad messageboard land that there is this fantasy that the Orioles should have gotten more for Cashner.
  12. The Astros are paying both Vetlander and Greinke.
  13. It should be apparent that Elias is following the same long slow rebuild process that the Astros followed when Luhnow and company took over the Astros in December 2011. If you study the Astros during the next few years, they spent spent virtually nothing on major league talent, especially that is not going to be around when their competitive window started in 2015. Once the Astros began their competitive window, they have proven very willing to spend big. From Astroball Jeff Luhnow followed through on his promise to Jim Crane to rid the club of high- priced, underperforming veterans, in order to squirrel away the savings to spend in a future in which they could realistically hope to compete. I do have enough confidence in Elias to think that if he lets Villar go for free, it is because other teams are offering very little or nothing. There is a ruthlessness to this process that will make it very difficult to be a fan for the next few years. However, it is more realistic than the the orioles plan for the decade of 2000s which usually involved building around mediocre players coming off of career years and over the hill stars looking for the fountain of youth. The three most important priorities for the 2019 and 2020 Orioles are 1. The draft. 2. Improve and modernize player development 3. Develop an in international scouting presence. At the major league level there may be young players (Hays, Mountcastle etc) that have a chance to be around when the competitive window starts. However, other than that, I don't think Elias cares too much about the major team at this point.
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