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POR

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Posts posted by POR

  1. 15 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

    Hobgood was the 2009 draft. The Sun had the Orioles rumored to be deciding between Wheeler and Ackley. Had they taken Wheeler who they gifted to the Giants he and his 3-77 would be a rotation anchor. If the chose Ackley hw would’ve given them 7.7 war of MLB production. Instead they went cheap and we all know the outcome.

    Ackley was the second pick in the draft.

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  2. 14 hours ago, Ripken said:

    Never understood the "Reyes as a prospect" thing.  Kid couldn't hit water if he fell out of a boat, and that was in A ball.  Still, sad for these guys.  Rough times.

    Reyes had a nice year in the Sally League as an 18 year old.

    He was six months younger and on the same path at the time as Rafael Devers.

    Reyes is a big guy and at the time there was reason to think that more of the 36 extra base hits in 84 games would become homers.  He never hit more than ten homers in a year and he could not get over the hump at Frederick, but there was reason to be optimistic about Reyes as a prospect heading into 2016. 

  3. On 1/18/2020 at 7:56 AM, gtown said:

    The Tettleton trade was one of the worst in team history but has been overshadowed by the trade for Davis. They traded a switch-hitting catcher with power for a pitcher recovering from arm problems.

    OBP wasn't valued as much then -- Tettleton walked a lot and was way more valuable than what they got for him.  

    I had no recollection of Tettleton being as good as he was offensively after being traded from the Orioles until  I looked up his stats.  Three straight years of 30 plus homers and 100 plus walks out of the catching position.  That is a fantasy baseball  monster in a OBP league.

    He made less that $16 million for his career.  He would have made more than that a year today if he was at his peak. 

     

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  4. 17 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

    First in total bases while being 115th in walks.  That's pretty funny.  Let's hope the walks were just because he could reach everything in AAA.  

    Since walks don't count when calculating total bases, it makes complete sense that someone who does not walk often would lead the league in total bases.

  5. 17 hours ago, Frobby said:

     

    I think guaranteeing that much to Robert is a pretty big gamble.   

     

     

    I just don't understand this line of thinking.  Maybe if Robert has a disappointing career, the White Sox would pay less for Robert especially in the early years.  However, in the scheme of things, the amount is small.  The amount they could be saving in year 7 and year 8 could be very significant.  I think the Dallas Keuchel contact was a much bigger gamble.

    The two years of free agency that a team buys out, may put a player in a totally different position for his next contract. This does not apply so much to Robert because he is very young, but would apply more to a 24 to 25 year old that a team signs to an eight year contract. For example If Adam Jones was a free agent at 30, instead of 32. it may not  been as clear that he was on the downside of his career and he potentially could have gotten a big contract that would not have been good.

  6. At the beginning of the off season, Zack Collins looked like he had the chance to get a decent number of at bats for the White Sox in 2020 as a back up catcher and 1st base / DH.  Since the White Sox resigned Jose Abreu and signed Yasmani Grandal and Edwin Encarnacion as free agents, Collins is completely blocked.

    Collins was the 10th pick in the 2016 draft as a bat first catcher.  By all accounts, he has focused on his defense since his pro career started, but there is considerable debate whether his defense is good enough to stick at catcher in the majors.

    Collins will be 25 in February and had a .951 OPS in 88 games in AAA in 2019.  He is a three outcome hitter that struck out 27% of the time and walked 17% in AAA.  Fangraphs gives him a 70 power grade.  

    The White Sox are focused on improving their bullpen now.  A trade of Collins for Givens would make a lot of sense for both teams.  Collins is exactly the type of player the Orioles should be giving a chance to while they rebuild.  He won't cost a lot and if he works out, he is young enough to be in his prime when the Orioles are ready to compete.

    The Orioles could see what Collins does defensively at catcher in 2020.  Ideally he wouId be able to stick at catcher. However, if not, I would not be surprised if his bat plays up if he is moved off of catcher and is more focused on hitting.

      

      

     

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  7. The Astros have won 311 games and been in two world series in the last three years.  It seems like a great return for being the worst team in baseball for three years (11-13).

    In addition, Yordan Alvarez is a little more than half a year into his MLB career.

    Kyle Tucker is a potential star that has barely started his MLB star.

    Forrest Whitley has been the most acclaimed pitching prospect is baseball for the last three years and has yet to start his MLB career.

    They have a ton of other interesting pitcher prospects plus Abraham Toro waiting for an opportunity.

     

      

  8. I do think that the Orioles will be doing a lot of piggybacking of  pitchers at Delmarva, Frederick and Bowie in 2020.  There will be two pitchers scheduled most games going between three and six innings. 

    This is what the Astros do in the minors and now with all the pitchers that the Orioles acquired, I assume Holt will look to piggyback pitchers as well.  The Orioles also drafted a number of late round college pitchers in 2019, and hopefully a few of them will emerge.  

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  9. 9 hours ago, WillyM said:

    When the Orioles traded Cashner, he was 9-3 for a team that had lost more than twice as many games as it had won.  I knew that the Orioles were expected to start trading productive veterans for prospects, but I was sort of hoping that a guy as productive as Cashner could be traded for the kind of players who might be major league ready within a year or two - or three at the most.  It was disappointing to see Cashner traded for guys who are probably at least four to six years from being able to contribute at the major league level.

     

    I don't think win-loss record is high on the list that organizations look at in measuring pitchers.

    The Orioles could not give Cashner away before the 2019 season. With a lot of smoke and mirrors,  Cashner  pitched decently enough that the Orioles got a couple of prospects for him.  It helped that the Orioles were willing to pay part of Cashner's remaining salary.  That Prado and Romero were very young international players were likely not a negative to the Orioles who are year away from being competitive and looking to improve their international talent .

    Cashner was a disaster for the Red Sox and I would be shocked if he even get a major league contract for 2020.  It is only in bad messageboard land that there is this fantasy that the Orioles should have gotten more for Cashner.

     

     

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  10. 14 minutes ago, theocean said:

    I posted this in another thread - but the Astros haven't spent any of that "saved" money.

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    According to spotrac - here's the payrolls from 2013-2019 for Dallas, DC, and Houston. Houston is the 5th largest metro area in the country. Dallas has about half a million more people, DC has about half a million less.

    I calculated the average payroll between Dallas and DC and compared it to Houston's payroll for that year. The row at the bottom of the chart shows how much less Houston spent that year in comparison to the average of their closest metropolitan area teams.

    From 2013-2018, the Houston Astros spent $376.5M less than their closest metropolitan-sized-siblings. They finally spent more in 2019 - $17M more in payroll - after two straight 100+ win seasons, a World Series win, and three playoff appearances. But, I'd expect a team to be able to generate $17M after all of that.

    Altogether, the Houston Astros have spent $359.5M less than either the Texas Rangers of Washington Nationals since 2013.

    So, where'd all that money go?

    The Astros are paying both Vetlander and Greinke. 

  11. 7 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

    The Orioles can afford to pay Villar the $3 million extra! So your argument doesn't hold water. They are choosing not to as they are going to stink and want to pocket the money instead.

    It should be apparent that Elias is following the same long slow rebuild process that the Astros followed when Luhnow and company took over the Astros in December 2011.  If you study the Astros during the next few years, they spent spent virtually nothing on major league talent, especially that is not going to be around when their competitive window started in 2015. Once the Astros began their competitive window, they have proven very willing to spend big.

     From Astroball

    Jeff Luhnow followed through on his promise to Jim Crane to rid the club of high- priced, underperforming veterans, in order to squirrel away the savings to spend in a future in which they could realistically  hope to compete.

    I do have enough confidence in Elias to think that if he lets Villar go for free, it is because other teams are offering very little or nothing. 

    There is a ruthlessness to this process that will make it very difficult to be a fan for the next few years.  However, it is more realistic than the the orioles plan for the decade of 2000s which usually involved building around mediocre players coming off of career years and over the hill stars looking for the fountain of youth.

    The three most important priorities for the 2019 and 2020 Orioles are

    1.  The draft.

    2.  Improve and modernize player development 

    3.  Develop an in international scouting presence.

    At the major league level there may be young players (Hays, Mountcastle etc)  that have a chance to be around when the competitive window starts.  However, other than that, I don't think Elias cares too much about the major team at this point.

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  12. 27 minutes ago, 7Mo said:

    He certainly posted big numbers and I'm not fluent in comparing leagues but it's obvious that the PCL is a huge hitters league. 

    I don't know anything about this guy other than the numbers. But yesterday Luke said this, which would cause me to question a few things:

    "Remember that .900 OPS in the PCL is equivalent to .740 in the Eastern League due to hitting environment. It's still good, but not crazy." 

    Rojas had an OPS of .938 with 31 home runs. Taylor Ward, another third baseman on the same team had arguably better numbers. 

    Thanks for the post and it's an interesting name to take a look at. 

    Rojas had a .935 OPS in the Southern League in 2018.

  13. On 11/19/2019 at 11:53 AM, Redskins Rick said:

    I remember a very proud Dallas team having a 1-15 record and was able to recover from it.

     

    The Cowboys were 12-4 in 1983 and they were 11-5 in 1991.  

    If you are a 30 year old Redskin fan,  the Redskins last won the more than 10 games when you were 2 years old.

  14. Luis Oviedo and Jose Fermin are a couple of interesting Indian prospects that were left unprotected.  Both are very young and years away from contributing, but talented upside.

    Oviedo will be 20 in May.  He was really hyped up as a prospect going into 2019 and had a disappointing year.  Here is a scouting report from Prospects Live from October 2018.

    5. Luis Oviedo, RHP

    Age: 19 (5/15/99)

    Highest Level: A

    57 IP, 2.05 ERA, 2.76 FIP, 10.58 K/9, 2.68 BB/9, .189 AVG. - A-/A

    Oviedo proved to be too much for the NYPL despite being two years younger than the average pitcher in the league. The projectable 6-foot-4 Venezuelan made nine starts in the NYPL striking out 61 in 48 innings before making two starts in the Midwest League to end his season. Oviedo has a fastball with life that sits 92-94 that he commands well. He gets great extension and can reach back a little more and pull down 96-97 when he needs it. Oviedo throws a curveball and a slider, and each projects as average or better. His changeup will likely be his best secondary pitch though. It can be firm at times but he sets it up well and it has good tumbling action to it. Oviedo had two mediocre runs through rookie ball, but really put it together in 2018. We could have a future number-two starter here if one of the breaking balls finds another gear. ETA: 2022.

    https://www.prospectslive.com/lists/2018/10/23/cleveland-indians-top-30-prospects

    He was not throwing as hard in 2019 and did not pitch after July 17th.

    Fermin is more steady than spectacular.  He gets overlooked with the Indians stockpile of middle infielders.  However, he think he is a starting 2nd baseman in 3 or 4 years.  Fermin will be 21 in March and should be in High A.

    If either of these players are selected, it would be a waste of a roster spot in 2020 and not be getting the game action in 2020 would not be great for their development, but they could be useful players down the road.  

  15. On 5/10/2019 at 10:10 AM, Redskins Rick said:

    dang this guy has more lives than Reimhold

    https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/05/nationals-gerardo-parra-nearing-contract-agreement.html

    I cant not understand how any team could put him on their 25 man roster.

    Somehow the Nationals seem to be doing all right despite having someone on their team who does not belong in the majors.

    As I said at the time, Parra is a perfectly fine backup outfielder.  In 204 plate appearances, he hit .250/.300/.747 while playing all three outfield positions.

  16. 19 hours ago, Tx Oriole said:

    That’s all on Jake. I don’t understand why a young pitcher thinks he knows it all and won’t listen to a vet pitcher? It might have helped him with the O’s. But I’m glad he went to the Cubs.

    No it is not all on Jake. A big part of player development is getting the most out of a players ability.  The Orioles were  far too rigid in messing with his delivery and using their mechanics.  it is not a one size fits all process.

    Scott McGregor was a good pitcher and is probably a nice guy, but he was a minor league pitcher instructor for years and did very little to distinguish himself in my opinion.

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  17. 8 hours ago, DirtyBird said:

    he simply should be playing at a higher level now that he is healthy and has shaken off the banquet scene rust.

    This is very true.  Andrew Vaughn is in High A and a couple high school players from the 2019 draft are in full season ball already.

  18. Rodriguez could certainly be a late bloomer who is benefiting from the new Orioles regime.  However, Rodriguez had a lot of buzz about him in spring training 2018 and was expected to open in Delmarva and he sill has not made it.  To me is is telling that Stauffer was promoted to Delmarva and Rodriguez has not.  

    In general there are a bunch of advanced 21 year old mid round 2019 draft picks who are only in the NY Penn League because they already threw a full college season and are just throwing a few pro innings to get their feet wet. 

    On a similar topic, who is the better prospect between Robert Neustrom and Jomar Reyes?  Neustrom is a actually few months older but was a 2018 draft pick who just got promoted to Frederick on July 24th.  Reyes is in his 4th year with the Keys and has made little progress.  While I don't think either are likely to emerge as a top prospect, Neustrom clearly has a better chance. 

     

  19. 22 hours ago, Frobby said:

    He leads by a pretty wide margin, too.   111 strikeouts in 75 innings.   Next is 100 strikeouts in 105 innings.  

    Unfortunately, he’s also 3rd in walks, with 51 (53 leads the league).

    The whole “not qualifying” thing can be a bit misleading.   Hall is 24th in IP, in a 10 team league.   Not many pitchers qualify.

    Hall had one more strikeout than Kyle Johnston when Johnston got traded earlier this week.

    According to my calculations there are only 11 pitchers in the Carolina League that have been in the starting rotation in the Carolina League the whole season

    Especially at the beginning of the season, Hall was very inefficient and threw a lot of pitches per inning.

    I have had Hall as the best pitching prospect in the Carolina League all year.  With Brady Singer and Jackson Kowar promoted and Daniel Lynch injured, Hall is clearly the best pitching prospect among active players now.  Kris Bubic is next. Lynch should be back soon, but I have Hall a bit higher.

    My choice for pitcher of the year in the Carolina League is Noah Zavolas, who has been more consistent.

    I am not a fan of promoting pitching prospects late in the season.  See Matt Riley.

      

     

      

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