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About Jammer7

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    Plus Member Since 12/07
  • Birthday October 7

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    Austin Hays
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  1. I still believe Kjerstad was a steal for the amount of his bonus. I guess saving 300k, if that’s what happens, can be viewed as cheap. But all of that aside for a minute, the Orioles are paying their employees for the entire year despite the shutdown. That’s not cheap. Maybe that 300k can go toward that. Nah, never mind.
  2. I suppose so. It’s disappointing to see how Bruce’s career plateaued at a fairly young age. Burnitz was a little better than I remembered.
  3. Nothing about a draft is certain. Martin may have had a major slump, an injury, or whatever. No? A leg injury to Martin that limits his speed would be huge for his value. The bat would have to carry him more. The model that Sig and Elias had apparently believes it was likely that Kjerstad would ascend in a similar way as Bleday. Young players improve, sometimes in a rapid fashion at this age. That is what we all hope for. The Orioles front office are standing behind their work. It’s a gamble, sure. But it’s an educated one. You have to admit, they are ballsy. They are strong in their belief in their system.
  4. It was $300,000 less, no? And bonuses were frozen this year to the same value as last year. Kjerstad’s bargaining position was not what it probably would have been if the season was played in it’s entirety. His advisors were held to what he has shown in the past. The Orioles’ projections models obviously were much higher on him. Similarly, J.J. Bleday was not inline to be a top 5 pick last year at the beginning of the season, but he improved a great deal and was rewarded for his work by Miami. Andrew Benintendi was another who was not even consider publicly as even a third round pick before the 2015 season, but was picked 7th. Many college juniors put it together and rise rapidly. It happens all of the time. LH power is a rare commodity. And personally, I think Burnitz would be Kjerstad’s floor. I believe he is a much better hitter, and a better fielder. For me, a better comp is Jay Bruce on the lower end. I could not think of a good higher end recent comp. I think Kjerstad and Bleday are strikingly similar players, though I think Kjerstad has a bit more raw power and a little better hit tool, but it’s close. Bleday is ranked #49 by BA, #28 by MLB Pipeline. I know...You don’t like the pick.
  5. The current organization chose Kjerstad and found more value in that selection for a variety of reasons. They are a talented well-respected group that appear to be working in the same direction to build organizational talent depth. It’s a huge shift from the past, certainly. The previous organization had talented people, but it seemed they were often working at cross purposes and about as dysfunctional as it gets. There was Buck’s guys, and there was Duquette’s guys, and even some Angelos butt-kissing guys. They did not have the resources to do the things that Duquette really wanted to do. Duquette wanted to get into the international market extensively, but was told not to pursue it. They diverted most resources to a failed last-ditch effort to compete with mediocre talent. As we know, it was a train wreck. We all clamored for the kind of organization we now have. Whatever people think of this draft, so be it. We’ll see, in time, if it was the right call to pursue six guys that will be in your top 30-35 players (two in the top 10-15 now, and upside for all of them to be top 10-15 guys down the road). Or should they have gone for 3 in their top 10-15, and go well under slot on the rest and be organization depth? I would just add that they seem to not want to risk significant investment into pitchers, in general. (Insert @weams quote here.) And we don’t know where they actually value the first four players they drafted. When they sign, we’ll see who is under slot significantly. I expect Westburg (Boras client) to be at around slot. I expect Kjerstad and Haskins to be under slot a good bit, probably Servideo too. But that does not mean they did not have them ranked high on their board. And they did not draft players for who they are now, but who they project they will be in the years to come. This organization knows what they develop well, and they draft those types of players. Perhaps down the road, they will be drafting deeper in the draft and take a chance occasionally on higher-risk arms like Fulton, Kelley and Wilcox. But only after establishing a deeper talent pool overall.
  6. Overall, I like this draft. I think the Orioles drafted two first rounders (Kjerstad and Westburg), two second rounders (Mayo and Baumler) and two third rounders (Haskins and Servideo). @Tony-OH, is it more so that you think Mayo and Baumler may have ended up being drafted in the first round in 2023? I can agree with that. Both are very talented undervalued kids by the public lists. I think these were very astute picks, and it shows the Orioles believe in their player development group. I am higher on Westburg than some, but I believe he was on the verge of a big year as well. He clearly made an effort to clean up his mechanics and approach. I think he looked stronger, and more compact in his swing. He will likely add some good weight and be an athletic above average 3B to cover ground on shifts. To me, he is just scratching the surface of the player he can become. Servideo could end up as a first round talent, if the Spring 2020 version is who he is. Look at all of the “solid college shortstops” who get taken in the first 50 picks each year. “Sure handed, solid defenders” with 50 grades or below for hit and speed, and a 45 grade for power. Many of these guys end up never making it to the big club. If they do, they are utility or low impact types. Cadyn Grenier comes to mind. Servideo could be an impact guy with speed and a gap to gap approach, providing energy and a spark. Or, he may not make it past AA ball. A solid 3rd round pick. I have to laugh when I read some of the remarks about this draft. For decades, we have wanted to have smart talent evaluators, cutting edge technology, a great development environment and respected shrewd decision makers. We finally have all of those. We even have a rocket scientist running our modeling, who has been successful in two other exemplary organizations. And people still question their intelligence and call this a stupid draft. They do not play it safe. They gambled a bit here, no doubt. They had a plan, and they executed it. I wanted Dax Fulton, Jared Kelley and/or Cole Wilcox, but they would have taken up a large amount of slot money. The rest of the draft would have been underslot guys. We’ll see in a few years which approach was better. Elias wanted to add more quality depth to the system, and I think they accomplished that. I remain a big fan of Martin’s offensive game, but I think we look back in the years to come and find that Kjerstad has more production and was a better value. @Sports Guy it’s nice to have you back!
  7. That is just not true. “Struggles” against HS pitching can be due to many things. Depends on where you play HS ball. At Stoneman Douglas, which is just outside Miami, it’s about as competitive an environment as it gets in HS anywhere in the world. And teams usually do not often pitch to big hitters like Mayo. What exactly is a “high school fastball?” The guys who hit well all summer on 86-96 mph, usually struggle to hit against slower fastballs of the average HS pitcher, which often hovers around 80 mph or less. These pitchers often throw a lot of junk out of the zone. I’ve seen Riley Greene, Jud Fabian, and many others, struggle to hit against sub-par pitching. Talented competitive kids will chase out of the zone because they are used to being, and expected to be, productive. They want to win, and they try to carry the load. Slow bats hit average HS fastballs, but cannot compete on elite travel ball or showcases. So, a guy who hits .500 in below average competition is a better prospect than a guy that hits .350 in Florida, Texas, Georgia or California? Yikes. HS stats are not totally meaningless, but they are a small part of the profile and need to be taken in context.
  8. Within 1-2 years, I believe Kjerstad will be a top 20 prospect. In a normal year, where he would have opened at Aberdeen and likely would have finished at Delmarva, he would have been considerably higher by the Fall list. But this seems fair for their way of ranking players for the moment, based on what they wrote about him pre-draft.
  9. That is a great post. I would add that he has an idea of what type of players and pitchers his development staff can work with best. He seems to have a very strong belief in the development staff. That is why he is not shy about drafting position players who need major swing adjustments like Stowers, Watson and Mayo. (Haskins is unorthodox, but I would not mess with him too much.) He likely weighs personality characteristics heavily to determine if kids are coachable, but he clearly believes in his development staff.
  10. The 2020 stats are indicative of his improvements in his athleticism, approach and overall hitting process. I see that in his play, albeit in a small amount of games, compared to years past. The tools are legit, and the attitude is great. The only things I take from his 2020 stats is the improved BB/K rate and swing and miss numbers that Brad Ciolek spoke about. And yes, I believe they are right that Kjerstad was about to have a monster year. He worked hard and it shows.They had a good amount of data and scouting reports on him over about 5-6 years. It’s my opinion to put him #2 in this exercise. Eye of the beholder thing. Adley was #1 before he played a minor league game as well. I admit that I did not consider Kjerstad seriously before the draft. Like everyone else, I assumed it would be Martin or Lacy. I did not do any work on him until after the pick. What I remembered from years past was not what I saw when I looked at his swing. I read up on him much more and understand why Elias selected him. I like Grayson a lot. My son played against him in travel ball. He improved a ton too the year he was drafted. Nearly everyone here said it was a terrible pick, a reach. I loved the pick. All of that said, it’s a fun exercise. I get the skepticism about kids that have yet to play pro ball. Especially HS guys. It’s all projection based on limited video and many other people’s observations. I tend to give Elias and his staff the benefit of the doubt. The more I learn about their process, the more I trust it. And I’ve been fooled before, so...
  11. Tendencies are never absolute On the other hand, I consider what he accomplished at Arkansas and Team USA to be significant. Those comments are really for tie-breaking. I think Henderson and Westburg are similar, but I gave the nod to Westburg. I try not to be that guy with a shiny new nickle, but yeah, we all have done it.
  12. 1. Adley Rutschman C# 2. Heston Kjerstad OF* - yes, I think he is more valuable than anyone not named Rutschman 3. Grayson Rodriguez RHP 4. D.L. Hall LHP 5. Austin Hays OF - just stay healthy and he is a star 6. Ryan Mountcastle LF/1B 7. Mike Baumann RHP - this large human could be our best pitcher in a few years 8. Yusniel Diaz OF - this was to be the year he stayed healthy and put it together...sigh 9. Dean Kremer RHP - 10. Hunter Harvey RHP 11. Keegan Akin LHP - I think he is better than his stats from 2019, I give him the benefit of the doubt for now that he was working on things out of his comfort zone 12. Zac Lowther LHP 13. Adam Hall SS - I am a fan of his overall game 14. Jordan Westburg SS - played well in the best college conference, believe he will make adjustments to drive the ball and make more consistent contact 15. Gunnar Henderson SS* - need to see more from him above GCL; mediocre HS competition, but solid in Summer circuit 16. Ryan McKenna OF - I believe he will get back to a more gap-to-gap approach. Trying to lift the ball is not his game. 17. Drew Rom LHP - looking forward to the gradual growth of this young man 18. Bruce Zimmerman LHP - really impressed by what I have seen in him, velo increase last year too 19. Kyle Stowers OF* - not sure what to think here just yet, but draft status and tools have him here 20. Hudson Haskin OF - biggest wildcard, but he hits the ball hard and plays hard 21. Anthony Servideo SS* - hopefully the 2020 version is who he is 22. Darell Hernaiz SS - future star 23. Alex Wells LHP 24. Brenan Hanifee RHP 25. Zach Watson OF - exciting tools, but needs to get a little stronger and make more consistent contact 26. Coby Mayo 3B - tools to be a top 5 talent in a few years 27. Gray Fenter RHP - may end up a back end BP guy, but encouraging year in 2019 28. Carter Baumler RHP - looking forward to his gradual growth 29. Luis Ortiz LHP - Elias/Koby strike it rich here. His video is impressive. Long way to go...but wow 30. Raul Rangel RHP - when this young man puts on some good weight, he is going to be a really good one. Saw a small amount of video on him, but I have read where a few people raved about him in the Tricky League. I tend to give a little more credence to the player who has done it at higher levels. For instance, I have Westburg over Henderson because Westburg played two plus years at Miss State, while Henderson was in HS in Alabama in mediocre competition and a little GCL. I also value everyday players slightly over pitchers, generally, because of the risk involved. Weems says they all break, and he is right. The last two, I went with pure talent and projection. I wanted to see what that was like to actually list international talent.
  13. I think the 40 grade was a bit low for previous years, but yes, he has improved his body a great deal. Probably from a 45 to a 55. I don't have a stopwatch on him, but my eyes see he is much more explosive in his movement. Dave Van Horn, his coach at Arkansas, said he had been working very hard to improve his explosiveness and overall athleticism. I have been watching him since he was a Freshman. I liked what I saw then, but he was below average athletically, although a good young power bat with average defense. He has really improved. All of these journalist rankings were based on previous years reports. Take a look at the video from this year. Look back at past years video and you can see the tremendous improvement in his body and athleticism.
  14. He is not a 40 runner now, but I think I saw that grade in BA. He was probably a 40/45 in previous years, but this Spring he was running much better. He worked hard and it shows. Really improved his athleticism. Look at his Spring video where he beats out an average bunt and stretches a few singles into doubles. To me, he’s a 50/55 by eye without a stopwatch on him. And I think the power is a 70, and the overall hit tool is more in the 55 range. He improved his recognition and cut down on swinging at pitches out of the zone. I believe he would have had a huge jump in rankings, like JJ Bleday, if the season did not end early.
  15. I am glad you shared your thoughts. It creates discussion here. I mean no disrespect to you at all. And I don’t disagree with you completely. I just wanted to share my thoughts as well and point out that these rankings are flawed in most years. And this year, much more so. I am just asking you to put the rankings aside for a minute and look at the latest video. When I watched the 2020 video on these guys, especially Kjerstad, I was impressed. Kjerstad is much faster than a 40 runner, for instance. He may be just a tick above average. I’ll throw a 55 on him. He even bunted for base hits and stretched singles into doubles. He obviously has worked hard and he is much leaner. His swing is more controlled and the ball is flying off the bat. His swing and miss was cut down significantly. I honestly, aside from track record, do not see much difference between Torkelson and the current version of Kjerstad in the way of hit or power tools. My non-professional eyes tell me that. I know many here will mock me for this, but I truly believe that. Look at the video in the Kjerstad thread. He definitely is much improved over last year.
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