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Greg Pappas

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Everything posted by Greg Pappas

  1. It still wouldn't accurately reflect where I would have taken them, though I understand where you're coming from. I'd be surprised if they exceeded 13.7. Time will tell. Austin Martin went 5th. McMahon went 46th. Van Eyk went 42nd. Casey Martin went 87th Bedell went 122nd Elder went 156th
  2. Thanks. I also would have taken a number of other players at #2 over Kjerstad. We may discover that Martin wanted 8.6+ to sign, and Elias figured that was just not going to work for him. I get that. Elias is a bright guy, so I'd have to say that the powerball analogy seems way off. Kjerstad is not just another guy, and was legitimately regarded among the top 10 players in the draft. I suspect he'll be a good RF (or LF) for us. Westburg is another well-regarded bat at either SS or 3B. Getting Baumler and Mayo was where the draft hinges, for me. If they turn out... either one of them... to be good big leaguers, the sting of losing out on Martin will feel much better.
  3. Preface: I'm certainly not a draft expert, but someone that tries to read a variety of analysts regarding these prospects. That doesn't mean Baseball America, Keith Law, MLB Pipeline w/Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo, ESPN w/Kiley McDaniel, 2080 Baseball and others are necessarily experts, but quite educated and thorough year after year. My info comes from those sources, and I get that they are not the end-all be-all. Hell, by tomorrow, next week or next month I may feel notably better about this draft... rather than just okay about it. I was upset by the Kjerstad pick and remain so. He may well be a good or even very good player for us, and his likely discount allowed us to have more money for other picks, but I'd still rather have had Austin Martin. I was good with Westburg at 30. I was not okay with Hudson Haskin at 39. I was not okay with Anthony Servideo at 74. I was good with Coby Mayo at 103. I was happy with Carter Baumler at 133. Taking Tony's comments into consideration, I kind of look at the O's draft like this: 2. Kjerstad 30. Westburg 39. Baumler 74. Mayo 103. Haskin 133. Servideo If that first name were Austin Martin, I'd have thought they did a good job, but instead think of it as decent or okay. Unlike the NFL Draft it's not set in stone what players will sign for at their slot. So it's difficult to gauge signability. Perhaps the slots will be set in the future, and not guidelines? Hard to say. Thus, not knowing signability demands makes doing your own "Here's who I would've taken" exercise shaky- at best. Still, limiting myself to college juniors and those available at our picks AND were actually drafted (so no Tommy Mace or Seth Lonsway), here goes (player profiles from MLB Pipeline): 2. Austin Martin, Inf/CF, Vanderbilt 30. Chris McMahon, RHP, Miami (Composite rank #38) 39. CJ Van Eyk, RHP, Florida St (Composite rank #27) 74. Casey Martin, SS, Arkansas (Composite rank #49) 103. Ian Bedell, RHP, Missouri (Composite rank #74) 133. Bryce Elder, RHP, Texas (Composite rank #138) Time will tell whether Elias did a great job, good job, meh job, or poor one this draft. I'm an O's fan and absolutely want the record to favor his selections when we look back. I'd be happy to be wrong to have doubted him. One thing is for sure... I take this draft thing too seriously. Go Elias/ Go O's!
  4. MLB ranks him 74th ESPN ranks him 58th Keith Law ranks him 52nd Baseball America ranks him 211th I'm pretty upset with Elias at this point. Unless he pulls a rabbit out of his hat with the last 3 picks... which I guess is still possible.
  5. I agree that Westburg is a bigger risk than the average early collegiate pick, but his upside is just as tantalizing. I think if he can hit .270'ish at the ML level, he'll be a really good player.
  6. I like Witt a lot, but prefer him last in that group of pitchers discussed. So, while I'd be good with Witt at 39, I prefer any of the others, even if only a little.
  7. Out of the guys mentioned here and there, I'd prefer we didn't peg Witt at 39. 74 as an overslot? Happily.
  8. Here are some notes from Jim Callis, Jonathan Mayo and the guys at MLB Pipeline on the same group of prospects as Law: (Notice the order is different, per their rankings.)
  9. Here are some notes from Keith Law ($) on some of the prospects we're discussing at 39. The number beforehand is his personal pre-draft.ranking:
  10. If Elias walked away from the draft with Kjerstad, Wilcox, Fulton and Westburg, I'd like that, especially at this point, BUT still believe we would have done better going with Austin Martin at 2, Westburg at 30 and maybe McMahon at 39 (or Fulton). I guess I see it like I'd rather have Martin than Kjerstad and Wilcox, but if we get two of these pitchers at this point, I'd feel better than I do now.
  11. Were I betting, I think I'd guess Dax Fulton, HS LHP from OK.
  12. Watch Draft Day 2 on MLB Network, ESPN2 beginning at 5 p.m. ET today.
  13. Watch Draft Day 2 on MLB Network, ESPN2 beginning at 5 p.m. ET today.
  14. This is my list of my Top 39 Prospects, posted before the draft: 1 Austin Martin, CF, 21.2, 6' 0", 185, R/ R, Vanderbilt 2 Spencer Torkelson, 1B, 20.8, 6' 1", 220, R/ R, Arizona State 3 Asa Lacy, LHP, 21, 6' 4", 215, L/ L, Texas A&M 4 Nick Gonzales, 2B, 21, 5' 10", 190, R/ R, New Mexico State 5 Zac Veen, CF, 18.5, 6' 4", 190, L/ R, Spruce Creek HS FL 6 Emerson Hancock, RHP, 21, 6' 4", 213, R/ R, Georgia 7 Mick Abel, RHP, 18.8, 6' 6", 190, R/ R, Jesuit HS OR 8 Nick Bitsko, RHP, 18, 6' 3", 220, R/ R, Central Bucks East HS PA 9 Max Meyer, RHP, 21.2, 6' 0", 185, R/ R, Minnesota 10 Reid Detmers, LHP, 20.9, 6' 2", 210, L/ L, Louisville 11 Garrett Mitchell, CF, 21.8, 6' 3", 205, L/ R, UCLA 12 Pete Crow-Armstrong, CF, 18.2, 6' 1", 180, L/ L, Harvard Westlake HS CA 13 Ed Howard, SS, 18.4, 6' 2", 185, R/ R, Mount Carmel HS IL 14 Robert Hassell, CF, 18.8, 6' 2", 195, L/ L, Independence HS TN 15 Jared Kelley, RHP, 18.7, 6' 2", 225, R/ R, Refugio HS TX 16 Cade Cavalli, RHP, 21.8, 6' 4", 225, R/ R, Oklahoma 17 Heston Kjerstad, RF, 21.3, 6' 3", 215, S/ R, Arkansas 18 Justin Lange, RHP, 18.7, 6' 4", 185, R/ R, Llano HS TX 19 Chris McMahon, RHP, 21.3, 6' 2", 205, R/ R, Miami 20 Dax Fulton, LHP, 18.6, 6' 6", 220, L/ L, Mustang HS OK 21 J.T. Ginn, RHP, 21, 6' 2", 200, R/ R, Mississippi State 22 Cole Wilcox, RHP, 20.9, 6' 5", 230, R/ R, Georgia 23 Garrett Crochet, LHP, 21, 6' 5", 210, L/ L, Tennessee 24 Tanner Witt, RHP, 17.9, 6' 5", 200, R/ R, Episcopal HS TX 25 Carson Montgomery, RHP, 17.8, 6' 2", 200, R/ R, West Orange HS FL 26 Jared Shuster, LHP, 21.8, 6' 3", 210, L/ L, Wake Forest 27 Carmen Mlodzinski, RHP, 21.3, 6' 2", 230, R/ R, South Carolina 28 C.J. Van Eyk, RHP, 21.7, 6' 1", 200, R/ R, Florida State 29 Carson Tucker, SS, 18.4, 6' 1", 175, R/ R, Mountain Pointe HS AZ 30 Jordan Walker, 3B, 18, 6' 5", 220, R/ R, Decatur HS GA 31 Clayton Beeter, RHP, 21.7, 6' 2", 220, R/ R, Texas Tech 32 Jordan Westburg, SS, 21.3, 6' 3", 191, R/ R, Mississippi State 33 Slade Cecconi, RHP, 21, 6' 4", 220, R/ R, Miami 34 Nick Loftin, SS, 21.7, 6' 1", 180, R/ R, Baylor 35 Bobby Miller, RHP, 21.2, 6' 5", 220, L/ R, Louisville 36 Casey Martin, SS, 21.2, 5' 11", 180, R/ R, Arkansas 37 Blaze Jordan, 1B, 17.5, 6' 1", 215, R/ R, DeSoto Central HS MS 38 Ricky Tiedemann, LHP, 17.8, 6' 3", 192, L/ L, Lakewood HS CA 39 Justin Foscue, 2B, 21.3, 6' 0", 201, R/ R, Mississippi State Kelly, McMahon, Fulton, Ginn, Wilcox, Witt, and Montgomery. In that order. Here is the page for who is still on the board... highest rated is Kelley at #12. https://www.mlb.com/draft/tracker/undrafted I mentioned this elsewhere, but I agree with @Tony-OH in that I really like the reports and videos on Miami's Chris McMahon. I expect we go pitcher at 39. I don't know why, but McMahon reminds me a bit of Mike Mussina. Again, I'm not saying he's Mussina, just that I see similarities.
  15. Again, I'm good with Westburg... good pick. Perhaps there is something in the works at 39? I dunno... but I need to see something happen that puts a smile on my face, or else, well, errrr, I'll pout... a LOT. Goodnight all.
  16. From MLB.com... https://www.mlb.com/prospects/draft/jordan-westburg-676059 I like Westburg a lot, and wanted him at 30 or 39 prior to the draft, but I'm curious about the likely underslot deal with Kjerstad... did they mis-calculate a player or two not dropping? We'll never know. Maybe Jared Kelly will be on the board at 39?
  17. Jared Kelley... I hope. I'm also high on Justin Lange. Also Tanner Witt to a slightly lesser degree... all HS arms.
  18. Probably among a few that we targeted prior to the draft... at least there was speculation about that. If they don't end up with HS RHP Jared Kelley at 30 (or later by some miracle) I'm going to be even more disappointed than I already am. Just my take... I still hope that I'll be feeling better by draft's end.
  19. HS RHP's Jared Kelley and Nick Bitsko, as well as HS LHP Dax Fulton are all still on the board. Perhaps Elias has them in mind? Fulton had been speculated to us at 30 for some time. Kelly is ranked 12th at MLB.com, with Bitsko 14th and Fulton 43rd. The Rays just took Bitsko at 24. Ugh.
  20. To reiterate how many of us feel... 🤬 @!%&*$#! Nooooooooo!!!!! WTH! ARGH!!!! LOL! 😉
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