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nadecir

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nadecir last won the day on April 11 2011

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About nadecir

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    Plus Member Since 02/05

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  • Location
    Columbia
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    http://
  • Interests
    Sports, drinking and other manly behavior
  • Occupation
    Geek
  • Favorite Current Oriole
    Nick Markakis or whomever is getting flamed for a bad performance currently
  • Favorite All Time Oriole
    Davey J

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  1. So I take it that you would be good with it if the Orioles cheated exactly the way the Astros cheated? I got it. I will just disagree and leave it at that.
  2. So you would be ok with it if the Orioles did exactly what the Astros did? I would not. How about I get a yes or no on that question? Let's not discuss generalities. I certainly would have an issue with Earl Weaver if he was involved in exactly what the Astros did.
  3. Please answer my question. So are you okay with the Orioles cheating like this? Or do you want someone in the organization to come clean and say something if the Orioles are undoubtedly cheating?
  4. At least Feirs had the guts to do it, even after leaving the Astros. I bet he wishes he would have spoken up earlier. Justin Verlander admits he should have spoken up earlier. "“It’s been difficult,” Verlander said Thursday at The Ballpark of the Palm Beaches. “Showing up in 2017. And once I spent some time there, understood what was happening. I didn’t — I wish I had said more. Looking back, I can’t go back. I can’t reverse my decision. I wish I had said more, and I didn’t, and for that I’m sorry.” So are you okay with the Orioles cheating like this? Or do you want someone in the organization to come clean and say something if the Orioles are undoubtedly cheating? Everyone who knows about cheating and stays silent condones it. How would you feel if you were a fan of the 2017 Dodgers instead of the Orioles? Other teams, players and fans paid a price for the Astros cheating. Without a whistleblower, this cheating would have continued.
  5. Thank God that Mike Fiers doesn't believe in this attitude. The Astros may have won more tainted World Series. If the Orioles were doing or have done something like this, I would want someone in the organization to call them out publicly as soon as they knew. Whether it be an intern or a player, a whistleblower is one that has enough integrity to say I do not want to be involved in an organization that cheats no matter what happens to me. History shows time and time again that condoning cheating or other unethical behavior with silence can lead to some very bad consequences. I do imagine that some Astros hitters will be keeping their heads down this season though.
  6. Given the Astros cheating, there are questions at this point of how much Elias' player analysis tactics are effective. The scandal taints everything and everyone involved involved with the Astros, along with their player development personnel and tactics. I know Elias has said this: “But I have said, and I will say, that my role there was running the minor leagues, running the international scouting, running the draft,” Elias told Connolly. “And I was very focused on it. I’ll leave it at that.” That's not an answer to the question of whether Elias knew about the Astros cheating while he was there. I am sure a reporter will ask Elias if he ever knew of "codebreaker" or the "dark arts" while with the Astros. It's pretty obvious that more Astros personnel knew about the cheating then have been named. "The Houston Astros cheating scandal reportedly went well beyond banging on a trash can during home games and also was used on the road from 2017 through parts of the 2018 season. Details of Houston's "Codebreaker" program were revealed in a report by Jared Diamond of the Wall Street Journal on Friday that showed the extent of the team's cheating as well as the depths to which then-general manager Jeff Luhnow was involved. Accord to Diamond, Luhnow was approached by a team intern in 2016 with a presentation on an Excel-based application that could decode signs from opposing catchers. The program, named Codebreaker, was routinely referred to as the "Dark Arts" among Astros employees, per a previously undisclosed letter MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred sent to the team. Manfred had called the cheating scandal "player-driven" in his report on the scheme. However, Diamond's report casts doubts on that notion, demonstrating Luhnow and the Astros analytics team were in on the efforts." https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2875319-astros-use-of-codebreaker-in-cheating-scandal-detailed-in-new-wsj-report "Luhnow’s tenure in Houston was defined by an all-knowing front office where information was king, and the ability to place a value on every single aspect of the organization. The idea that he was unaware of such an elaborate scheme, if not intimately involved, is laughable, yet Luhnow’s official statement in response to his suspension and subsequent termination by the Astros was defiant, insisting “I am not a cheater” and “I did not know rules were being broken.” Sure. Baltimore Orioles general manager Mike Elias was assistant general manager under Luhnow in 2017. When he left for Baltimore in 2018, Elias brought Astros’ director of decision sciences Sig Mejdal with him. Understandably, Elias would like to distance himself as much as possible from the scandal. “I am confident that group that’s here that came from Houston will not be connected to or implicated in the sign-stealing situation in Houston,” Elias told reporters at Orioles fan fest last weekend. There’s reason for Elias to be confident that that connection will never be officially drawn. Major League Baseball has demonstrated they won’t pursue anything unless its feet are put to the fire. It took them two years to thoroughly investigate the Astros, and only then after a player (Mike Fiers) went on record to disclose the scheme. Manfred’s report went out of its way to avoid placing blame on the front office. Now we know that Houston’s front office was integrally involved, and it’s difficult to believe that MLB didn’t. https://www.sbnation.com/mlb/2020/2/13/21131563/astros-cheating-hubris-jim-crane-rob-manfred-mlb My question is this. Would Angelos have even hired Elias if the extent of the Astros cheating scandal was publically known before Elias was hired?
  7. Boras said Altuve was shy. That's why he didn't want his jersey ripped off. Try another one Scott. https://ftw.usatoday.com/2020/01/houston-astros-cheating-buzzers-jose-altuve-shy-jersey-twitter There certainly is a lot of smoke here.
  8. Besides "analytics" is rather old news already, machine learning and artificial intelligence is the new up and coming in-thing in baseball. Imagine computers watching thousands and thousands of baseball, trying to determine what small factors that give insight to the best prospects or the best way to play the game. Things like can a 16 year old prospect hit an 86 mph slider with a significant spin rate down in the count with a high outgoing velocity, and whether this is predictive of whether this prospect can be successful in the majors at 22. Or do you get better results by moving your center fielder two feet in on a 2-2 count to certain hitters in a tie game with no outs in the 8th innings with a relief pitcher who has a average 92 mph fastball? Baseball data is easy to find everywhere now. The easy stuff is common knowledge - things like defensive shifts against hitters, very young players becoming better and even more valuable, etc. etc The upcoming revolution is baseball is more use of artificial intelligence in decision making. Computers can watch a lot of baseball, analyze all sorts of data from the videos, and then figure out the small things that make a really big difference. The baseball organizations that discover these small things that are most likely to produce the best outcomes will be the most successful. The idea for any organization is to discover them first.
  9. The Orioles are 25 games behind the 4th place team in the AL East, the Blue Jays. The Yankees, Rays and Blue Jays have far superior farm systems than the Orioles. The Red Sox might win 110 games this season. Unfortunately, the question to ask is how many years will it take for the Orioles to get out of the AL East basement. Contention seems too far away to even hazard a guess.
  10. Who knows maybe the Braves discovered something with Gausman by having him pitch out of the stretch. Here's his splits in 2018: in 2018 with bases empty: K/9: 6.36 FIP: 5.30 HR/9: 1.9 In 2018 with baserunners: K/9: 8.62 FIP: 3.27 HR/9: 0.72
  11. The Braves have Gausman pitching out of the stretch for the entire game now. In the last two games, he's thrown 192 pitches - 133 for strikes with two good performances.
  12. There are times in your life when your favorite teams are not going to be good. It reminds of the Billy Bob Thornton line from Bad Santa: "Looks like someone messed with my Advent calendar. What are you talking about? Let me see. Nobody messed with it. It looks fine. There's a candy corn in this one. Well, they can't all be winners, can they?" Find the little things you can enjoy with Orioles baseball over the next few years. And when the Orioles get better, remember to celebrate the heck out of the good times again.
  13. This is the way the rating of baseball players works for the average fan: The players you just got rid of were not that good really, and the players/prospects you acquire are better than what everyone else thinks. It's always going to be that way; it's just the nature of being a fan. 🙂
  14. Dan has always been a "quantity over quality" type GM. Whether it be rule V guys, veteran pickups in the off-season, or players acquired with trades, Duquette's mentality is to pick up many players with the hope that a few will be pleasant surprises. This philosophy has worked out sometimes, but as shown this year, this philosophy has a risk of really absymal results. I would prefer he mix in a few high tested prospects with these trades, but what we got should have been expected. We received a lot of mid-range prospects with the idea that a few will turn out to better than currently expected.
  15. The analysis by Corcoran in 2016 was pretty good at forecasting exactly what happened to Chris Davis. In another earlier article about Chris Davis, Corcoran says: "The question then becomes: If Davis is struggling to make contact now, when his bat speed is near its peak, what happens when his bat inevitably slows down with age? The answer is unlikely to be a gradual decline and more likely to be a quick collapse in his value " If the Orioles would have taken his other piece of advice in early 2016, fans would be feeling a bit better about the Orioles future today: " If the Orioles were dead set on spending $150 million this off-season, the best way to spend it would have been on an extension for Machado, whose age-26 season is on the other side of his scheduled free agency. " Your comment about the subjectivity of the analysis from Corcoran gets to the important point about analytics Data analytics is a science. Baseball executives today have an enormous amount of data at their disposal to use to run their organizations. The key to success is to collect all the data you can and analyze it to find meaningful patterns that allows you to forecast better. What data is important, and what data should be ignored; that's the heart of regression analysis which forms the foundation of this subject. One can only reasonably answer these questions by having experienced analytic personnel in your organization using state of the art tools. This requires significant investment. This foundational investment is necessary in Major League Baseball in order to be competitive today. A team can certainly be successful for a few years by using traditional methods to assign player and prospect value. But in the long run, teams with vast experience with analytics, more data, and better tools to analyze the data will invariably come out better than the other teams with little investment in analytics. It's true in baseball, and it's true in most businesses today.
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