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spiritof66

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spiritof66 last won the day on June 22 2017

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About spiritof66

  • Rank
    Advanced Member
  • Birthday 10/30/1951

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  • Location
    New York City
  • Homepage
    http://
  • Interests
    Reading, music (drums, guitar), baseball history, college basketball
  • Occupation
    Retired lawyer
  • Favorite Current Oriole
    I dunno. Who's left? Mancini?
  • Favorite All Time Oriole
    Brooks

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  1. Not a replay of a vintage game, but some vintage baseball-related comedy that I hope some of you get a laugh from. (I don't think it's been posted elsewhere on here, at least not recently -- sorry if it has.) A slightly longer extract leading into the same scene:
  2. Not that one. . . . Please!
  3. Here's a 2017 Berkshire Eagle article about Belanger that I don't recall seeing before. https://www.berkshireeagle.com/stories/who-else-could-it-be-mark-belanger-is-no-1-on-the-eagles-list-of-berkshire-countys-top-50,523241
  4. I was at The Horse Box that night, wedged against the wall opposite the bar. I distinctly remember that lots of the O's fans on hand, including me, were howling in protest as soon as we saw Ubaldo coming into the game. It may not have happened that way, but that's the way I remember it. Whenever I think back to that game -- and I try not to -- I'm reminded of the time Bill Veeck, in his first season as owner of the Browns (the same year he signed Eddie Gaedel), presented Grandstand Managers Night. The fans seated in a designated section made up the Browns' lineup, in-game personnel, and strategy calls by holding up signs. Tough to do at an away game, but it might have helped against the Jays. (The Browns beat the A's, 5-3, on Grandstand Managers Night behind the pitching of Ned Garver and a big contribution from their reserve first baseman, who sported one of my all-time favorite MLB nicknames, Hank "Bow Wow" Arft. It was one of the Brownies' 52 wins that year.) https://www.mlb.com/cut4/in-1951-bill-veeck-let-the-fans-manage-the-st-louis-browns-on-grandstand-manager
  5. That aggressive baserunning is fun to watch. Not so good if you're trying to win ballgames.
  6. I'm with Tony on The Natural, but feel the same way about Field of Dreams. They're not about anything that I (recognize as baseball. For me, the best baseball movie (that I've seen) is Bang the Drum Slowly. Great acting (De Niro, Michael Moriarty, Danny Aiello; Vincent Gardenia steals the show though I guess De Niro reclaims it by the end), unforgettable characters and subplots, and a story that is sometimes heartwarming, other times heartbreaking. And the baseball is real baseball. But you don't have to take my word for it. Reviewing it in 1973, Roger Ebert said, "It’s mostly about baseball and the daily life of a major league club on the road." Ebert called it "the ultimate baseball movie," and for me it still is. https://www.rogerebert.com/reviews/bang-the-drum-slowly-1973 One of life's great unsolved mysteries is why no one has made a film, or a TV mini-series, of Mark Harris's other baseball fiction, especially The Southpaw, in which Harris introduced the characters in Bang the Drum Slowly.
  7. Right. Too many ways to score from third with one out, some of which --sacfly, deep ground ball,squeeze play--aren't available after the second out. The play in today's game would be covered by a different rule as well: Don't create outs on the bases when the runner can be put out by more than 15 feet.
  8. With this team, he may never get the chance.
  9. I'm excited that the Orioles will be playing something that resembles baseball in a few days, and that five weeks from tomorrow (I think that's right) there will be real baseball, with the O's tied for first. While I look forward to seeing some fresh talent that might be part of a competitive team some day, I try not to get too excited about any of them, the result of decades of seeing hyped guys not having the great careers they were destined for. I'll have to make a chronological list some day . . . it probably would start with Sam Bowens.
  10. I'm not sure whether I've posted some version of this before, but what the heck, it's a new season . . . My favorite baseball song, by a pretty wide margin, is Tom Paxton's "My Favorite Spring." For me, it captures, and sucks you into, the game's cycle of hope and heartbreak gradually and subtly, without slipping into maudlin sentimentality. Second place goes to "A Dying Cub Fan's Last Request," by Steve Goodman (who also gave us "Go, Cubs, Go!"). I think recent seasons of Oriole wretchedness have made me identify more with the long-time Cubs fans I've known. Goodman died of leukemia in 1984, at age 36, four days before the Cubs clinched their first division title and first post-season appearance season since 1945. He was invited to sing the Star-Spangled Banner before the opener, but Jimmy Buffett had to fill in.
  11. It depends on what you mean by "go after."
  12. I agree with most of this, but there's also a question as to how much value can be gotten out of the guys on this list, whether that value is realized via trade or sticking around when the Orioles are a much better team. (For those purposes, I would add Alberto to the list.) Who on this list might in a couple of years hold down a job in MLB other than filling a roster spot on a real bad team? Means and Santander have a good chance, IMO. The rest seem unlikely, but you never know. I never know, anyhow.
  13. Thanks for posting this. Earlier this year, as part of a project that has gotten sidetracked, I did an analysis of the 2018 Forbes numbers. I'm not at home and don’t have access to that stuff right now, but from memory I pretty much did Frobby did, with a few differences noted below. While working with the Forbes numbers, I concluded, I guess based on what I can remember from my extensive work with business valuations years ago, that it's more meaningful to look at the average of a team's multi-year numbers than to focus on a single year. That should create a more meaningful picture of things by reducing the effect of single-year aberrations -- maybe important and maybe not, depending on what you're looking for. However, that conclusion, combined with my antiquated and awkward relationship with spreadsheets, slowed me down quite a bit. Forbes has been presenting these annual MLB valuations for over 20 years. I have been following the Forbes numbers, and reading about them, for the past six or seven years, and I am confident that they have been pretty accurate in recent years -- maybe not precise, but close enough for use when you’re looking for patterns and making comparisons. The big exception is that, as Frobby (and Forbes) point out, Forbes ignores the revenues some teams derive from owning all or part of the regional sports networks that pay them rights fees to carry their games. (That omission tends overall to reduce the relative revenues and profits of larger-city, higher-revenue franchises.) We know from the MASN case that MLB permits team-owned RSNs to divert a portion of the value of teams' rights fees to the RSNs. I’m surprised that Forbes hasn’t by now made team-by-team estimates of annual revenues from ownership of RSNs where that’s applicable. Maybe next year. In any event, instead of ignoring this revenue source, a couple of years ago I made crude (and conservative) estimates of teams’ revenues from their RSN ownership, and added that estimate to the revenues for each team that owns an RSN. I have no illusion that those guesses are accurate, but I suspect they’re more accurate than the zero that Forbes and Frobby use. The other difference between my methodology and Frobby’s is that I used player payroll numbers from a different source, I think Spotrac. I can’t remember why. I agree with Frobby that there are lots of things you can do with these numbers, and I only scratched the surface. A few general observations for now, though. In my opinion, while the ability of an MLB team to compete successfully depends on a number of factors, the two most important are (a) its potential to generate revenues when it is well managed, and (b) the potential of its divisional rivals to generate revenues. Estimating a team’s potential revenues is complicated, but the Forbes numbers provide a way to move toward a reasonable approximation: take the average revenues (plus an approximation of revenues from RSNs) over the past X seasons (five seems like a reasonable number) and weight the more recent years. That doesn’t work very well in at least two types of situations: teams whose revenues have been depressed in some years because of poor management (the Mets, Marlins and possibly the Orioles are examples), and teams that chose to allow their revenues -- and their costs – to be reduced in some years as part of a rebuilding process. Those teams' historical revenues need to be adjusted when you compare them to other teams', and I haven’t figured out how to do that. I have posted in the past some interesting (to me, anyway) numbers that the Forbes figures make readily accessible: the average price of each ticket sold (a team’s gate receipts, per Forbes) divided by that team’s home attendance for the same year. Teams in areas with relatively large populations, high wealth, and lots of corporate headquarters and a concentration of service (financial, law, consulting and accounting) firms get more per ticket -- a lot more in some areas. Though I haven’t studied it, it's my belief that, while a team's paid attendance rises and falls based on the team’s on-field success (with a time lag), its average ticket price for a given year is affected only slightly by recent on-field performance. If that’s so, then a team’s average ticket prices over, say, 10 years should reflect primarily factors that it can’t easily change: the demographics (including population, wealth, baseball tradition, competition for entertainment/recreation from other teams and activities) of its city and the surrounding area, and (especially in two-team cities) the location and appeal of its stadium and the nature of its fan base. That is, a team's average price per paid patron should correspond closely to its potential ability to generate revenues.That’s something I hope to look at after a lot more thought. I’ll try to get back to these numbers after the first of the year and post some additional observations. But, as I said, I'm pretty slow with spreadsheeting stuff. Thanks again, Frobby.
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