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Everything posted by e16bball

  1. The key to his success was never falling behind two, two, two-and-oh.
  2. Came across this when I was looking back at older IFA signings to get a sense of the correlation between ranking/bonus size and success. Was somewhat surprised to see that Renato Nunez got the 4th largest IFA bonus back in 2010 ($2.2M) per Baseball America, and he was MinorLeagueBall‘s #5 prospect in that international signing class. There are probably a number of important takeaways from this information — but as to Nunez specifically, I was somewhat pleased to see that recent observations of bat speed and power potential are not just a flash in the plan but have been part of his
  3. I also think they should keep Buck. I saw it written on this site the other day that Buck is not a manager for a rebuild, which is hilariously wrong. He’s not just a manager for a rebuild, he might in fact be THE manager for a rebuild. It’s basically the big knock on him — great builder, can’t get over the hump. Joined four teams at the bottom of the league, had them all contending for the playoffs in short order. Buck has his shortcomings. Too loyal to the veterans who have served him well. Good quality in a person, not as great in a manager. And that dovetails closely with the bi
  4. There’s a big difference between considering the general idea of being traded to a contender in a vague sense (which he clearly did) and weighing the details and specifics of particular options. ”Am I willing to be traded to be a contender at the deadline?” is a very different question than “am I willing to be moved to a corner (or potentially even platoon) OF spot in a league where I’m not particularly familiar with the opposing pitchers on a really young team that is probably 3rd best in its own division and only a 50/50 bet to even make the playoffs?” That’s where I think the Orio
  5. Not sure that should really disqualify him. Kyle Gibson hadn’t been useful since 2015, but now he’s a 3-4 win SP this year. Derek Holland, not quite as good as Gibson this season but still a 2ish win starter, and he’s been basically worthless since 2013. Trevor Cahill hasn’t been a decent starter since 2013, but he’s been a big part of the Oakland surge as a member of their rotation. Marco Gonzales had literally never been useful, but he’s a top 20 SP per fWAR this season. Pitchers are a lot like prospects — you never really know who it’s going to “click” for, or when it will happe
  6. I keep seeing folks describing this as “Orioles choose to trade Schoop rather than sign him long term” — but what’s stopping them from pursuing Schoop in FA after the 2019 season? You could sign him now (or just keep him without signing him), and you get his production the rest of the season and next season. But what is that worth? We’re terrible this year and will surely be terrible next year. Would be a total waste, for him and for us. And it would open us up to the risk of a bad contract if Schoop ends up being more the 2018 version than the 2017 in the long term. Instead, we got
  7. I think Evan Phillips is an underrated piece of this deal, kinda like Cody Carroll. Not very interesting at first glance -- but he was one of the 2-3 best relievers at the AAA level, even better than Carroll has been. At age 23. Big K rate (13+ K/9) and a 2.05 FIP. to back up the 1.99 ERA. With the way that relievers are always in high demand, I like the idea of adding a couple guys who could pitch well out of the pen and become highly valued pieces themselves in a couple years. Zimmermann might end up in that same boat -- pretty dominant against lefties, and his stuff (which seems like it mi
  8. His legacy will be his position on the top step overseeing the return of Orioles Magic and the transition from 15 brutal years of losing to 3 playoff berths and the best record in the league over 5 seasons. For everyone who won’t let the way the last 150 games have gone cause them to entirely lose sight of the prior 1000 or so, that is.
  9. My post was (I thought) dripping in sarcasm, so we are very much in agreement here. “Play me at third, short, wherever” has quite literally been Manny’s approach to where he’s played his entire career. He obviously prefers SS, but when it was best for the Orioles for him to play 3B with Hardy at short, where was he?
  10. I agree with you, but I think the key is that when you’re a team in the Orioles’ position, the future you’re “mortgaging” really isn’t worth much. When you’re in a division like this — with two of the biggest spenders in the sport, another pretty well-heeled team, and no organizations that are just consistenty inept — you can't get by with being “pretty good.” Not when the worst division winner since 2000 won 93 games and the average division winner has won 97 games (despite playing the unbalanced schedule in what is regularly the toughest division). And unless you’re one of those very bi
  11. Good point, would have been nice if Manny hadn’t refused to play 3B for us. We could have played JJ Hardy at SS and probably would have had a really good defense. Might have won a lot of games. I think Manny would probably make a pretty good defensive 3B. Guess we’ll finally find out now that he’s willing to do that for the Dodgers.
  12. This is what I was suggesting. They clearly should trade him now. But after trading him, I think they also should give serious consideration to making him a solid offer to sign back here in the offseason. Not really for his contributions to the 2019 Orioles, but for the opportunity to trade him again — whether at the deadline or the next offseason.
  13. Putting aside the issue of the content of the tweets and how badly to condemn him for a moment, it’s remarkable to me that even on an Orioles’ fan board, the first reaction to any remotely Orioles-related news is to find a way to turn it into a criticism of the team. I know they’re terrible, and we’re all miserable and frustrated, but it’s still remarkable. The Orioles’ “judgment” with regard to Hader has gotten blasted routinely on this site (and among all Orioles fans). How could we trade a guy who is already such a dominant reliever? And he was also a good ol’ Maryland kid to boot. Onl
  14. Why not? He has significant trade value at the deadline this year, despite the fact that he (a) is coming off a major injury, (b) has barely pitched this season, (c) hasn’t pitched that well, and (d) is a straight rental with no pick attached. If we were to re-sign him to a market value deal and he returned to prior Zach Britton form, he would be one of the most valuable chips on the market at next year’s deadline or the following offseason. Money is not going to be as much of a concern over the next few seasons. You can’t buy up prospects (for the most part), so I think they
  15. Who? Who are all these guys who pitched for Buck and then moved on and had so much more success after they left? Jake Arrieta. Alfredo Simon had one good season as a starter elsewhere. Who else got more than a (small) cup of coffee with the Orioles and then was able to really blossom after getting out from under the strictures of the Showalter philosophy? We've had some guys from lower in the organization go elsewhere and see success, but none of them ever pitched more than a couple innings for Buck, if any. Most of the guys who have pitched here and left have either been worse or basical
  16. Then maybe they can reach an injury settlement with him. Look, I’m sympathetic to what you’re saying. But no reasonable person could expect the Orioles to bear 100% of the risk on an as-yet-undetermined, mostly non-guaranteed contract. Especially when Britton was the party in the best (only?) position to minimize the risk. Maybe they could pay 60 days of salary instead of the 30 days they’re required to pay if they release him. Maybe they could arrange to keep him around the franchise this spring and summer by paying him a bit to act as a roving bullpen instructor for the minor lea
  17. This is fantastic work, thanks very much for your efforts. There are a couple guys I have questions about, based on some quick reviews of eligible players and their stats. They probably aren’t great fits for the O’s to pick, for various reasons, but I’d be interested to get your thoughts. 1B/DH Mike Ford: Obviously the last thing the O’s need at the moment is another 1B type who can’t do anything but hit. But damn, he’s exactly the the kind of bat we could use — a high BB/low K guy whose power would potentially play up in OPACY. C Yohel Pozo: Probably way too young to j
  18. Cleveland: Drew Pomeranz Zach Putnam Steven Wright Hector Rondon Jeanmar Gomez Blake Wood Anthony Swarzak Kirby Yates Toronto: Noah Syndergaard Joe Musgrove Anthony DeSclafani Jeff Hoffman Kendall Graveman Daniel Norris Matt Boyd Sam Dyson Jeremy Jeffress Liam Hendriks Miguel Castro Jesse Chavez He
  19. Seriously. If "construction worker" was going to be used as some sort of racial shorthand or implication, it certainly would not be used to describe the white American player in contrast to the Hispanic player. This is so plainly not racial that it's almost painful to debate it. It is a flat comparison of two power-hitting RF/DH players who were available free agents at the same time. The clear message is that Trumbo is a stoic, understated, no-nonsense player who goes about his business quietly, without any fanfare and not making waves. Is anyone arguing with that
  20. To be fair to both players, the Fangraphs defensive value includes positional adjustments -- both guys DHed in dozens of games, so that number isn't just reflecting their overall defensive performance. It's actually penalizing both (heavily) for frequently being slotted in the DH spot. If you're talking about actual defensive performance in the OF: Trumbo 2015-16: -15 DRS, -10.6 UZR (-9.6 UZR/150) Smith 2015-16: -6 DRS, -1.1 UZR (-0.9 UZR/150) Per the metrics, Trumbo was below-average in 2015 and very poor in 201
  21. That's only if you buy Pagan's 2016 power. I think you have to be more than a little skeptical of a power surge at the age of 35, especially when it comes after two full seasons of absolutely zero power. If you get something much closer to the 2014 and 2015 versions of Pagan -- the ones with no power -- what makes him any better than Joey Rickard?
  22. The one thing that just keeps dangling out there as a possibility this offseason is the Dodgers very possibly losing Jansen from a bullpen that doesn't have a whole lot beyond him. That's a team that is in full-out compete mode. They're not going into this season with a big hole in the back end of the bullpen. Hard to imagine them dealing Urias, even for Britton. But with high-upside prospects like Cody Bellinger and Yadier Alvarez behind him in their pipeline, you can't help but wonder if the O's could inject some major talent into the farm system by taking advanta
  23. He's played about 1000 innings of above-average defense in RF...
  24. Would have to agree that "viable backup" is about what Heim's upside looks like at this point. If you take a look around the league, there isn't a starting C or even a very solid backup C who was still nearly this bad a hitter at age 21. So, what we gave up is a guy whose reasonable projection --- if he stays healthy, if his bat continues to progress, if his defensive skills don't erode --- is that he could be a viable backup C in 3-4 years? If we can't get another one of those into the organization within that time span, we're in much bigger trouble than just missing out on the opportunity
  25. Christian Walker + filler for Boone Logan? He seems fairly similar to the return the White Sox got for Zach Duke, who wasn't just a 2-month rental. He wouldn't really be blocked at 1B with the Rockies, either. And his time in the OF might give him a little extra versatility for the NL game. Sure would love to add Logan to the pen for the stretch run and playoffs. He could be a valuable chess piece in the late innings --- his numbers are outstanding this year.
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