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Everything posted by biggrthngibbons

  1. My main argument for bringing back Patterson is the not so obvious point that his defense is actually good enough to account for his less than stellar offense. Fortunately, the market for free agents doesn't value defense on the level it should and Patterson can be had for a relative bargain.
  2. Although SG may be right in saying that he will take a one year deal to reestablish his value, I think signing him to 2/11 with an option on the third year doesn't seem unreasonable for either side.
  3. Scott Boras does not set the market, demand does. And with a plethora of options in centerfield, supply will be higher, thus making the demand for Patterson lower. Boras may be able to get Patterson the best deal, but that doesn't necessarily guarantee he won't take a paycut
  4. In my opinion, they would be a wash at best. That is assuming CPat won't be much better offensively, and Payton won't be much worse defensively in centerfield.
  5. The first is the what I was referencing. I know this is a slightly rough estimate, but the rs/150 was in hopes to be able to compare apples to apples, and is the only statistic I am aware of that measures essentially the same thing that an offensive statistic (RC) measures.
  6. What I think you are failing to realize is that runs are runs... whether they are scored or prevented, they are equally as valuable. One of the toughest things to do when evaluating players is to be able to assess a players total offensive and defensive worth. Until recently, when stats like RS and RC were not available, this was almost impossible. We are very lucky to have access to numbers such as these, and we would be foolish to ignore their significance.
  7. Payton can be expected to be slightly better offensively, creating about 70 runs per season. The only RS numbers I can find for Payton are for him playing right field. which he was slightly better than average saving 4 runs per 150 games. By sliding him over to center, it would seem logical that this number would have to decrease because of the necessity for better range in centerfield. I also believe Payton has a stronger arm, which would be another reason that his RS/150 numbers would be better from RF than center, as a stronger arm is more valuable from right.
  8. Does anyone else here think that making the push for Zambrano would be the move to make this offseason?
  9. Hallelujah.... I just think, in the grand scheme of things, all of the superstar free agent centerfielders are marginal upgrades over Cpat and by comitting to a ludicrous contract for a vastly overrated player such as Andruw Jones, we will be dooming ourselves to another 5 years of mediocrity. We need to think outside the box people!
  10. I definitely wouldn't mind seeing Ramon go, and wait for Weiters. A stop gap at catcher certainly couldn't hurt, considering Ramon's quick decline. I would argue, however, that due to our abundance of pitching, an injury to Zambrano, while definitely harmful, definitely would not cripple a rotation that deep.
  11. Although there is a lot of talk about the plethora of centerfielders available via free agency this coming offseason, it just occurred to me that keeping Corey Patterson may very well be our best option. I was teasing my girlfriend that she would have to find a new favorite player since Patterson would more than likely be gone after the season. When she asked why, I said it's because he can't hit. She then said "Well he can still field and run really well..." This got me thinking as to how valuable Patterson's defensive abilities actually are to this team. By referencing Baseball Think Factory, and a recent discussion on Runs Saved/150 games (essentially the defensive answer to Runs Created), Corey is not surprisingly, the best defensive centerfielder in the league today. What is surprising is how bad his replacement would actually be. If we examine what many consider three of the most eligible free agent centerfielders; Rowand, Hunter, and Jones, and take into account the size and length of their expected contracts, and compare them with Patterson, who, at the present time, has very little negotiating leverage with his dismal year at the plate, I have come to the conclusion that resigning Patterson to a two year contract would perhaps be the smartest thing we could do in the offseason. Patterson, on average saves 14 runs per 150 games (rs/150) over a replacement level centerfielder. Compare this to Torii Hunter, who has 10 rs/150; Aaron Rowand who actually loses 5 runs (-5 rs/150) by just being in centerfield; and Andruw Jones, who, despite his reputation as a very good defensive outfielder, loses 8 runs (-8 rs/150). If you take the runs they save (or lose) into account along with the runs they create at the plate (RC), you could expect Andruw Jones to have an RC around 90-95, but also to lose 8 runs per year in the field, for an actually runs contributed to be around 85 (he's not getting any better defensively). Aaron Rowand can be expected to have an RC around 70, but lose about 5 runs in the field, contributing about 65 runs overall. If we had to sign a big name centerfielder, I would advocate for bringing in Torii Hunter who will have an RC around 80, but will also save 10 runs in the field, contributing around 90 runs per year. The downfall to all of these players is the contracts they will likely command, and the age they will be when they expire. Rowand and Jones are both 30, and Hunter is 32. All will receive well over $10M per season, and more than likely sign deals that range between 4 and 6 years in length (unless Jones signs a one year deal to bolster his value after this season). Patterson, who is also only 28, can likely be had for a 2 year deal for about $3M per season, and can be expected to create about 60 runs per year at the plate, and save 14 per year in the field, contributing about 70-75 total runs. So it looks like I'm going to kinda go against the grain on this one, and argue that Patterson is the most attractive option among free agent centerfielders, given what he can be expected to sign for. The money that we were supposed to throw at an overpriced centerfielder, should then be spent on Adam Dunn if he becomes a free agent after the season, or Carlos Zambrano, who would enable us to finally trade Penn/Olson/Cabrera, without worrying about whether or not they will develop into an elite pitcher for another organization. For the sake of speculation, let's say Dunn remains a Red this season and is not able to become a free agent, and we outbid everyone for Zambrano. Let's also assume we are able to send a package including Dcab, Penn/Ray, and a Fiorentinoesque prospect to Cincy for Dunn (and an extension...), we would be left with a team resembling this: Lineup: Roberts, 2b Markakis, RF Tejada, SS Dunn, DH Millar, 1B Mora, 3B Payton/Huff, LF Hernandez, C Patterson, CF Bench: House, Gibbons, Gomez, Payton/Huff Rotation: Bedard Zambrano Guthrie Loewen Olson/Burres Bullpen: Walker Hoey Olson/Burres Bradford Baez (insert 2 minor league/random middle relievers here) On paper, this looks pretty good... a little thinking outside the box and being agressive with the two big moves, and I think this may be a contender...
  12. Listen, I know I may be in the minority on this one but here it goes... I hate the sox more than the yanks... and I just realized this within the past few years. I mean don't get me wrong... I can't stand the Yankees, but if a Yankees fan and a Red Sox fan got in a fight, I would have to root for the Yanks fan. I just can't stand their fans, I mean you have a bunch of rich whiny white collar former and current frat boys with frayed sox hats talkin about how great the Red sox Nation is, Camden Yards being "Fenway South", and complaining about how "wicked hard" it is to compete in the AL East. I mean they complain about NY's total salary and the inequity that exists between them and the Yanks, but fail to mention the inequities that exist between their team and the rest of baseball. They just seem to have this sense of entitlement... I mean yeah i realize you guys didn't win a World Series for about a century, but why did they have to try and play the sympathetic role of the loveable loser? As a sox fan you are generally treated to a team that will at the very least be competitive... If you want something to complain about talk to a Cubs fan...
  13. Agreed, I'm not against having penn as the centerpiece of the right deal, I'm just afraid after his showing towards the end of last year, he is so undervalued right now that it may not be feasible for him to be the centerpiece of the right deal. An interesting comparison to a former heralded Orioles pitching prospect: http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/S/Curt-Schilling.shtml http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/P/Hayden-Penn.shtml and we all know how that deal involving a couple of young pitchers and a skinny outfield prospect for a certain proven power hitting first baseman (I make it a point never to speak his name...) Just kind of eerie how similar a deal of Penn/Fio/Liz for someone like Richie Sexson could be to the infamous deal of Schilling/Finley/Harnish for the one who's name we should never speak.
  14. lol does anyone else out there think this may actually be Joe Morgan?
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