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El Gordo

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Posts posted by El Gordo


  1. There are lots of ways we could spend $15M that would improve us as much or more than signing Soriano.

    Signing Soriano to a huge contract only makes sense if he's the piece to take us from a contender to a WS hopeful, or perhaps even from a .500 team to a legit playoff contender. Signing him to take us from a below .500 team to a slightly above .500 team is pointless, because by the time we'd get to be a contender, Soriano and his contract will be a hindrance. It would be acceptable to deal with 2 years and $30M for a .750 OPS LF if that same guy got us to the playoffs in his first 3 years, but I don't think thats likely.

    I'd spend money on guys that are shorter term gambles, like Burrell, who is only owed money for two more years. If we're going to give out long term contracts, it should be to younger guys - like Teixeira and Matsuzaka.

    That if you sign Soriano you do nothing else. Increasing the payroll to $100mil. would allow you to do more. Add some bullpen help and another 800+ OPS bat or two and your in business.


  2. - You fail to mention his top 10 includes Larry Walker and Jeff Kent, two likely HOFers who lasted until their late 30s.

    - You fail to mention that his BB-Reference comps don't include his 2006 numbers

    - His Baseball Prospectus comps, which are far more thorough and include things park and league translations, and body type comps include players like Ryne Sandberg, Kent, Nomar, Robby Thompson, Tim Wallach, Bobby Thompson, Joe Carter, Andre Dawson, and Paul Blair. How much do you think he's worth based on those nine multi-year all stars? How much more is he worth when you realize he's comparable to those guys before his best season?

    Sounds like you actually like Alfonso. Even with that OBP? Would you be in favor of signing him?


  3. We're stuck in a conudrum when you talk about pitching. PA won't pay a guy who only plays "once every five days" a market price. So we have to hold on to our young pitchers and hope they develop. That ties your hands in getting the bat's we need. If we would , for example sign Barry Zito , we could then move one of the young guys in a deal and get a bat to protect Tejada. That's not going to happen here.

    The position that any Front office guy is put into working for the Orioles has to be frustrating. How do they get there shirts on with their hands tied together?

    If we were to sign Schmidt for 3/$50mil. we could trade Bedard for Teix and get a better bat for less than Soriano would cost. What's wrong with this picture?


  4. I'd be amazed if Cabrera/Gibbons/Hoey (or something similar) gets us Tex. I'd be happy but just shocked. Dcab still hasn't come close to fulfilling his potential, Gibby's often hurt, and Hoey's unproven. I know reports have Texas wanting to move Tex, but I just don't think that would cut it.

    I think odds of getting Burrell "on the cheap" are much better, if he'll waive the no-trade clause. (That's still in place, right?)

    If Texas is really looking to trade Teix, if any another teams might be interested in him like, er. ah LAA for example, who have much better pitching to offer and in spite of the mighty Kotchman could use a 1B?


  5. I'm glad Miggy made that offer public. It starts putting pressure on the Club right off the bat-actually even before the season ends, to DO SOMETHING.Miguel Tejada is this team's most valuable player in more ways than one.

    Several player have mentioned the idea of Soriano coming here. Something in the air?


  6. Melmo - I just don't think the guy is going to be that "great". What if he is a bust(Beltre, Pavano) will we have to wait until the contract is finished to rebuild again?

    You have to admit. There's something wrong with 46 homers and ONLY 95 RBI's. What happened there? You might be right about him, but then again so could I.

    It's called batting lead off. I don't know how many lead off batters have more but I doubt that it's many if any. Soriano is a much better bet than Pavano or Burnett for that matter. In 5 years he'll be puting up better numbers than Vlad or Delgado will.


  7. The funny thing is that you could add just about anyone and it would make the O's a better team. ;)

    I think we could do worse than signing Delucci/DeRosa LF, Padilla, Zaun, trading Benson+ for a blocked young 1B or Burrell. And maybe consider signing Shefield. They would be a definite upgrade. Not comparable to Conine/Millar IMO.


  8. The Soriano and Guerrero situations are not comparable. Vlad is an intorvert who has never bothered to learn English, and it was pretty clear he just didn't want to play any place where there wasn't a large Spanish-speaking population. Soriano is an extorverted guy who played in Japan before he ever played in the mjors. He's not likely to rule out Baltimore for cultural reasons.

    The one good thing about going after Soriano is there are no cultural or personal or even competative concerns. I think he'll go where the money is period. Not like Vlad or Konerko or Garciaparra.


  9. Quality is better than quantity. We need a player like Teixeira on our team to play first base.

    We have depth in the farm that we can trade. I'd give away Cabrera, Reimold, and their pick between RLo, J.J. Johnson, and Fio for Teixeira.

    While we probably also need Soriano, Schmidt, and a player like Craig Wilson in addition to Tex, it's still a start, and he's still probably worth 3-4 wins over Millar.

    Except the only player, of those you mention, they'd be interested in is Cabrera.


  10. I'd hate to trade Ray considering how badly the bullpen struggled this year. I'd consider going as high as Cabrera and Penn for Tex. I know that may be a lot, but you are getting a proven commodity for two unproven guys with potential. Trading those two would require us to sign a starter this offseason though. I'd also make sure Tex signed an extension before finalizing the trade.

    If you got Tex for DCab and Penn and signed Soriano you could trade Tejada for the pitching.


  11. I agree with Flanagan that its horrible timing. Nestor is going to take credit for every cent increased to the Orioles payroll next year, when his rally really has nothing to do with that.

    This would have made a lot more sense a year ago, or even at the beginning of this season, but its just bad timing right now.

    What if at 5:05 the O's are in the middle of a rally and Nick is up with men on base, who's getting up and leaving? or better yet, he gets the 3run HR. Leave now? Wait till the end of the inning? Was that really the point? I know the owner and the FO is disfunctional. I go to games to watch the players and support them, even the bad ones are a lot better at it than me and I have to respect their skill. I couldn't bring my self to walk out on them. Unless of course it's the late innings of a laugher either way.:D


  12. The players aren't that stupid, they know the protest is about Angelos and not them. Flanagans an idiot.

    I know he's not as experienced a baseball man as any body who post's at OH but what would you expect him to say. "Yes Angelos is a poor owner and the team would be better off without him"?


  13. You are right.

    You have just convinced me.

    Stay away from Matsuzaka.

    Lets pocket the money and go after Kerry Wood instead. :rolleyes:

    Lets stick to the reclamation projects and 38+ year olds. Lets continue to scrape the bottom of the barrels in an effort to find a 1 mill dollar player who will have a 1.7 mill dollar year for us.

    After all, this strategy has worked really well for the last 9 years. Why stop now ? Why take a risk on a 26 yr old pitcher with excellent control and a 96 mph FB w/ movement, and a 92 mph slider ?

    Of course he could be the next Kaz Matsui. And the world could end tomorrow. :confused:

    Matsuzaka 3/$60 mil.(including posting fee);Zito5/$70mil.; Schmidt 3/$50mil.; Soriano 6/$90mil.; Lee 5/$70mil. This is likely what it would take to get these guys to turn down playing for a contender and or playing close to home and come to a notoriously disfunctional organization. If Angelos was willing to write a blank check should we go after any of these guys?


  14. You are double counting by mixing and matching incompatable win estimates. The extra runs from improving the offense contribute to the "extra wins" in the back of the rotation.

    You have to talk in terms of increased runs scored and fewer runs allowed to be interchangeable.

    I also think you are underestimating how hard it might be to improve 20 wins without enourmous strides by the pitching staff, but I like your outlook.

    Benson and Bedard have pitched well enough to win 32 games instead of the 25 they have between them. A good bullpen would have provided the difference without any other changes. We have the worst LF OPS in all of baseball. League average production would give you a few extra wins. You also have to take in account the improvement of Tejada and Markakis and even Mora with more depth and power in the line up. Chen and Lopez have lost at least 10 games by huge margins. Decent pitching in those 10 games would have given us at least a shot. I don't think I'm far off at all.


  15. That's Will's take, but not necessarily any kind of BPro consensus. Joe Sheehan's been making generally favorable Orioles comments since the deadline:

    http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=5373

    http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=5489

    Now, I don't know that we can make that 15 win improvement he alludes to without signing someone unlikely like Bonds, Sheffield or Edmonds, but if you sprinkle one of those guys in with a mega contract for Soriano or Lee, things could be pretty interesting.

    FWIW, Clay Davenport told me a couple years ago that he thought Matsuzaka was a comparable talent to Jake Peavy. Of course, Daisuke's has had his arm slagged a couple more years since then, but he's still probably the pitcher I'd be most excited about acquiring.

    A #4 and #5 pitching combo that can win 20 games instead of the 9 this year's duo has, plus the 4-6 extra wins Drungo says a league average 1B and LF would provide, give you 15 wins at least right there. Then improve the bullpen enough to hold the 4-6 leads of Bedard and Benson that they gave up and you have a 20 game improvement. So this time next year we would be at 85 wins. How hard is that. It wouldn't take a Soriano or a Matsuzaka to do this. The main task is finding the bullpen arms. Any combination of Burrell, Wilson, Enberg, Catalanotto, Delucci, Crisp etc. could give you better than league average at LF and 1B. Could Lopez and DCab be counted on for 20 wins between them next year? You Think Bedard and Benson could repeat their performance next year? IMO this is not an unreasonable expectation.


  16. "Carl Monday (Ohio): In your opinion, who are the most impressive front office people in baseball?

    Will Carroll: Carl Monday. Good times.

    You know, this is an impossible question. If I answer, I'll leave someone off the list and I'll get a nasty email. There are a TON of very smart people in front offices, far more than most people would think.

    I'll say this rather than cop out: If I was hiring a GM, my interview list would go - Chris Antonetti (AGM, Cleveland), Dan Jennings (Scouting, Florida), Kim Ng (AGM, LA), Eddie Bane (Scouting, Angels), Jim Duquette(AGM, Baltimore), and Gary Huckabay."

    Duquette's the man, he may have been a better addition than Mazzone.

    Not too loud, most people around hear think he's an idiot for not trading for Baker and not bringing up the mighty Terrero.:rolleyes:

  17. Yes' date=' Santana's contract is a bargain. But you really can't use that as a baseline. Guys like Paul Byrd are getting far bigger deals than $5 million per on the FA market. By saying that $13 million per is his absolute limit for a pitcher, and that even $14 million is crazy, he is probably taking himself out of the discussion for Zito and maybe Schmidt, as well. For the record, I agree with you that shoring up the power positions of LF and 1B should be higher priorities.[/quote']

    Would you really take some guy like Paul Byrd over Bedard or DCab or Loewen? How much better is Zito than any of these guys in the long run. Why throw that money away when you could spend it wisely on 5 or 6 guys you really need?


  18. You know... you can disagree without being a jerk.

    What is it about today? I rarely sanction anybody for anything, but this is the third post I've had to play hall monitor on today.

    Think before you post, ok?!? And read the rules! Especially this one:

    If this rule was seriously inforced and I wish it would be, nobody could post.:D

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