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SurhoffRules last won the day on April 21 2010

SurhoffRules had the most liked content!

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About SurhoffRules

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    Plus Member since 4/07
  • Birthday 10/12/1983

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  • Location
    Locust Point
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    Software Consultant
  • Favorite Current Oriole
    Hardy/Markakis/Reynolds....in that order
  • Favorite All Time Oriole
    B.J. Surhoff

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  1. It wouldn't surprise me if Bundy turned in a few mid-3 ERA, 190+ inning season before he retired (barring injury). His stuff was electric at draft time but there were plenty of references to his make up and work ethic. I think hes got a decent shot at sticking around the bigs and putting up some seasons to be proud of.
  2. This means Bundy will finish up with 30 starts and about 160 inning. He stayed on the mound for a third straight year and was a more effective than last 2018 as his innings per start dipped once again from 6.03 (2017), to 5.52 (2018), to 5.33 (2019). He definitely kept us in more games than not. He went 6 or more in 10 of his 29 starts and was replaced somewhere in the 6th inning (start or end) 15 times though. So there were only 4 games where he didn't carry the team into 6th. We all hoped for better with Bundy (understatement, I know), but given how his velocity collapsed it's been somewhat satisfying to see him changing things up to stay productive and in the MLB. Hopefully, he can complete the transition as he enters his age 27 season and throw up another solid season or two. There's almost always a place for in the MLB for a pitcher that can take the mound 28-31 times a year and keep his team in the game.
  3. Bundy will get 1 or 2 more starts depending on how things shake out. I'd like to see him finish strong. He has an outside shot of getting his ERA+ to 100 if my back-of-the-napkin math holds up. He'd need 7 shutout innings or 10+ innings at 1.59. He's done neither of those things this year from what I can tell but he'll face the Jays one more time and he pitched moderately well in his one start vs. Boston this year. Stranger things have happened. Wishful thinking.
  4. Name K/9+'00 K/9+Car WAR Career Brian Meadows 55 66 2.7 Jimmy Anderson 68 55 3.4 Brian Rose 75 74 0 Jeff D'Amico 83 83 7.1 Tomo Ohka 83 74 11.1 Jim Parque 85 82 1.6 Scott Downs 87 102 8.1 Carl Pavano 88 80 21.1 Joe Mays 91 69 5.4 Scott Elarton 91 81 -0.5 Mike Johnson 92 94 -0.5 Chris Fussell 94 94 -0.7 Doug Davis 96 100 22.4 Paul Rigdon 98 89 0.2 Jaret Wright 100 99 7.1 Eric Gagne 104 149 13.4 Kelvim Escobar 113 124 23 Eric Milton 115 99 12.3 Tim Hudson 120 86 45.2 J.C. Romero 124 111 1.3 Kyle Farnsworth 128 138 6.8 Scott Williamson 162 157 5.6 Your class of 2000 (24 year old, min 50 innings). Lot of noise and lots of folks that ended up in the bullpen. Remove Hudson from the list and the above average and below average look pretty similar. I still agree with you and suspect one year isn't enough data to see a trend.
  5. Since 2013 (per Fangraphs) there have been 999 qualifying starters seasons. 243 were thrown by pitchers with an average fastball under 90 mph. Discounting the 10 of those that were thrown by Wakefield and Dickey you're left with these medians(couldn't get ERA+ in the FG custom report for some reason). Age ERA K/9 BB/9 H/9 >= 90 27 3.68 7.82 2.72 8.4 < 90 31 4.02 6.22 2.54 9.27 Digging a litter further these starters made up over 40% of those seasons under the 90mph mark were thrown by guys like this: Name Avg Age Seasons Mark Buehrle 32.0 9 Bronson Arroyo 33.0 7 Jered Weaver 28.4 7 Paul Maholm 27.5 6 Aaron Harang 34.0 5 Barry Zito 31.2 5 Derek Lowe 36.0 5 Jason Vargas 29.8 5 Livan Hernandez 34.0 5 Ted Lilly 33.0 5 Andy Pettitte 37.3 4 Bartolo Colon 41.5 4 Dallas Keuchel 27.8 4 Dan Haren 32.5 4 Doug Fister 29.3 4 Joe Blanton 27.5 4 Kyle Hendricks 27.0 4 Kyle Lohse 33.5 4 Mike Leake 27.0 4 Randy Wolf 32.5 4 Wandy Rodriguez 31.0 4 I suspect the ERA gap between the real soft tossers and the rest of the league is much less than it would be if the list wasn't heavily selected for productive veteran pitchers who were allowed to continue pitching as they lost velocity. Loving what Means is doing, but I think it's fair that folks would be rosier on his future if he had a few more mph on his fastball. I think he's certainly focused on the things in his toolbox that he needs to be to have a shot at a long and productive career.
  6. I'm somewhat embarrassed to admit that my preference towards quoting BB over FG is mostly because I find the color scheme and left anchored grids of BB far easier for my eyes to parse than the green/grey/white/black with the grid placed in the center part of the page. I wish I could pretend it had anything to do with a deeply held opinion on the quality of their data.
  7. @DrungoHazewood I still get feeling that we're talking past each other a bit and that's mostly coming from my side of the conversation. I understand, appreciate, and agree with everything your saying about how the WAR numbers are put together and I appreciate the effort you put into your replies.
  8. Fangraphs apparently thinks much less of Nick's defense as the season has progressed. They have him at -12.6 to Adams -4.7 pushing Adam's fWAR to 0.4 to Nick's 0.1 That puts Nick's contract out of the point where it provided any positive value. I do know many people prefer fWAR inputs and weight to bWARs and I should probably start quoting that.
  9. I get what your says but I suppose I'm either not articulating what I'm mulling over well enough to contribute to the discussion or perhaps what I'm mulling over really isn't relevant. I guess what I'm trying to get at is if it is acceptable to say that WAR see's players like Markakis and Jones as very close defensively, but if we blindly flip their dWAR (-0.6 and -1.3) components Adam becomes about a -0.3 player and Nick jumps to 0.7 (I think), then a full win's worth of value is well withing the currently tolerable outcomes for their WAR. When I'm looking to assign value to someone performance, it seems a little loosey-goosey to have one component to a total WAR number that can swing a person from being a useful piece over 100 games to below replacement level. If +5 defensive runs is a rounding error why can that tolerable range impact the final replacement value to such a large order of magnitude? Perhaps its not unreasonable to say a -0.3 and a 0.7 player are that different, but I know if I was looking at signing someone in the 32-36 range it would certainly be nice to understand how they are able to produce in the field. I'm comfortable with noise within a season and noise across seasons, but perhaps my expectations (or desires) for accuracy are unreasonable at this point. The new positional based defensive metrics will start to trickle out in the coming years and I imagine we'll have a much more consistent idea of how to rate players defensively. My prediction for 2019 is that neither Markakis or Jones gets more than 2.5 million.
  10. To be clear, I'm not advocating for tossing it out entirely or dismissing it until improvements are made. Just coming to terms that when you bundle it all up into the final WAR number, the range of what is current considered acceptable for dWAR can result in a +/- 8 million dollars of value when you look back at how a teams roster is constructed. The offensive portion of it seems to have far and away more certainty. That makes comparing the 3M contract Jones got vs the 4M contract Markakis got difficult. If Jones is -6 in the field, his contract stunk. If Markakis was 0 in the field, his contract moves from adequate to great. For a number thats certainly supposed to be compariable between players at the same position, it's a large delta in terms of allocating roster dollars. Regardless, I suspect most front offices would look at either player as a risk to underperform given where they both are in their careers and whatever their contracts do or don't look like next season will reflect that.
  11. BBref says that Jones is better in RF than Markakis by dWAR. It also says that his RF is the same as Nick's, he's committed 5 errors to Nick 2 (in a few less games), and has less assists than Nick. I'm just a little confused because all those are components of the dWAR so I'm just not seeing what the input is that's saying Adam was worth more in the field this year than Nick. Honestly though, I haven't put a ton of effort into understanding dWAR as most of the time it agrees with my eye and I kind expect of the newer defensive metric revolution to make improvements on it anyway. Shrug.
  12. Just for fun, the last 20 years worth of Orioles that received any ROY votes. Go Rodrigo. Year Player Vote Pts 1st Place Votes Rank 2017 Trey Mancini 31 0 3/5 2012 Wei-Yin Chen 2 0 4/5 2010 Brian Matusz 3 0 5/5 2006 Nick Markakis 7 1 6/7 2004 Daniel Cabrera 29 0 3/10 2002 Rodrigo Lopez 97 9 2/11 2002 Jorge Julio 14 0 3/11 1998 Sidney Ponson 1 0 5(T)/6
  13. Upon closer inspection I now realize his 3 WAR is only based on 67 games. I now agree that Means chances are not as rosey as I was thinking. Still, a good season from him.
  14. With the season winding down, Markakis finds himself on the DL but may get a few more ABs when he comes off. Assuming there's no significant improvement or collapse he'll probably finish around 100 OPS+ and 0.4-0.5 WAR in 104+ games on a $4M salary. I imagine he might find a team willing to play him next year if he wants to return in some capacity, although I wonder how much longer he'll play the majority of games in a season. I will say this, despite his ups and down in production, Nick has been remarkably healthy over the course of his career, playing an average of 150 games a year. Adam has also kept himself on the field more than not since he stuck in the majors with Baltimore. He's sporting a 91 OPS+ for the season and 0.2 WAR in 124 games. He's hitting enough that he'll likely see a little bump in WAR before the seasons ends on his $3M contract. Given the slow market for his services last year I don't imagine he'll see an increase in interested for his age 34 season this winter. There's probably still a spot for him, but I'd be hard pressed to see him as a starter next season. TLDR: Nick has provided a bit more total value this year as his bat remains relevant into his mid thirties. Both could find work next year but the odds of them finding starters work continues to decline. I'm a bit stumped as to why Nick is at -8 RField and Adam is -1 despite having a relatively similar looking defensive line in RF. Maybe park effect or some other input. I'm not all that familiar with the inner working of DWAR.
  15. If Means finishes strong I think he's got as good of a shot as anyone at AL Rookie of the Year. Just looking at bWAR as a bellwether, Tampa's Lowe has a slight edge (3.7 to 3.6) but he's out for the rest of the season. Houston's Alvarez could be in the conversion (3.0) but he's a DH/1B type with a below average glove. I'm not really seeing another AL rookie pitcher that jumps out at me this year and some other just don't have the games yet to accrue the numbers that would put them in the conversation (Bichette, Guerrero Jr.). Two or three more solid starts for Means and he could be the first Os RoY since...Gregg Olson in '89.
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