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Everything posted by GuidoSarducci

  1. K this is why Nunez shouldn't play the field
  2. Wonder why we went to the bullpen early, especially with the double-header tomorrow. Means only allowed that one homer.
  3. In the other thread trying to compare current vs. past Os lineups, the issue of OPS+ was brought up. That got me to thinking, what does OPS+ mean (aside from the statistical definition)? Well the mlb.com explanation (http://m.mlb.com/glossary/advanced-stats/on-base-plus-slugging-plus) basically says that if your OPS+ is x, that means you were better (or worse) than league average by x - 100. So if your OPS+ is 150, that means you were better 50% better than league average. So I'm wondering if your OPS+ is > 200, which a few players have achieved in a single season, such as Ruth, Gehrig, Mantle, etc (https://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/onbase_plus_slugging_plus_season.shtml), that means you were 100% better than league average. Does that mean you basically had the productivity of more than two average players? If so, in terms of the lineup, theoretically if you had the option of replacing the OPS+ > 200 player with two league average OPS+ 100 players(and have ten people batting, though still only nine still playing the field, kind of like little league), would it make sense to do it. Of course the answer, is an obvious "no". But what if, instead of just their at bats, those two players actually gave you an additional "outs". In other words, you replace that one HoF player who had the ridiculous OPS+ > 200 season, with two OPS+ 100 players consecutive in the batting order. I'm not quite sure how this would work, maybe instead of having 27 outs, the other team would have to record 30, like maybe four outs in the second, fifth and eighth inning. Or maybe whenever the first of those two players came to bat, their team would get an out subtracted from their total (going negative if no outs, though maybe limit this once an inning in the case of a bat around) So even in that situation, does it still make sense to keep the OPS+ > 200 player, as opposed to having two league average players (OPS+ 100), if you got additional outs somehow?
  4. You have to factor in the guy on 2nd being called out, without the team getting a double play. So in those situations, the runner on first either stays there, or possibly advances to second. Like what happened the other night vs the Rays - Mullins throws Choi out on deep fly ball. If the Rays had another runner on first, he may have advanced to second or worst case stayed at first. Which obviously increases the chance of the Rays scoring a run in that inning.
  5. Prior to last year Ruiz logged less than a half a season of game.s His OPS+ last year in 127 games was 81. Last year Hans Alberto's OPS+ was 98. Prior to that he played 80 or so game sin the majors, finishing OPS+ of 35, -20 and 33.
  6. You can use OPS+ and my answer doesn't change much. Of course, its probably a little early to get good OPS+ numbers, and we don't know how people are going to finish, etc.. But I think people are overrating how good the 2014 O's were offensively. Our R/G was only slightly above AL average. Our pitching however, was 3rd best in the AL, particularly our bullpen which was scary good with Britton, Brach and O'Day. Our starting rotation all had ERAs around 3.5 saving Jimenez, and you can justify replacing him with Gausman who only had 2 less starts and ERA of ~3.5. As crazy as it is to think about, its entirely possible that Rio Ruiz in 2020 will have a better year offensively than Machado in 2014. Assuming the season even finishes, which at this poitnt is maybe 50/50
  7. C (2014): Wieters only played 26 games in 2014. Joseph logged 82 games, the rest split between Nick Hundley and Steve Cleveinger. The highest OPS of that group is .625. Wieters himself OPS 839. C(2020): both Severino and Sisco OPS'ing over .850 so far. I'll call this one of a win for the 2020 Orioles. Severino/Sisco >> Joseph/Hundley/Clevenger. 1B: Davis. Although he did have a down year in 2014 with only a .700 OPS. 2014 Davis >>>> 2020 Davis. However, its unclear he will get the majority of starts for the rest of the season. But I'll count this as a win for 2014 Os regardless. We don't know if/when Mountcastle gets called up. 2B 2014 Schoop had a terrible year, OPS .598. Alberto the clear winner hear SS 2014 Hardy OPS 682 vs 2020 Iglesias 1316. Clear win for 2020 3B 2014 Machado OPS 755 vs 2020 Ruiz 1112. Win for 2020 LF 2014 David Lough OPS 694 vs 2020 DSJ 808. DJ Stewart has more games, but I'd venture he's not going to get much more chances. I'm gonna call this one for 2020. CF 2014 Jones OPS 780 vs Hays 300. Win for 2014 obviously RF 2014 Markakis OPS 729 vs. Santander 734. I'll call this one a tie. DH 2014 Cruz OPS 859 vs. Nunez 955. I''d venture that Nunez doesn't finish better than 859, so I'll call this one a win for 2014. Final score 2020 O's 5, 2014 Os 3, 1 tie.
  8. How do you figure? The 2014 Orioles only had one player with OPS > 800 (Nelson Cruz). The current O's have 7. Edit: Amongst qualifed starters at least.
  9. Of all qualified batters Nunez was 100th in wRC+ last year https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=dh&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=1&season=2019&month=0&season1=2019&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2019-01-01&enddate=2019-12-31 But when you restrict to DH, there's only a couple of qualifiers, Nunez was 3rd to last, ahead of only Cabrera and Khris Davis I wouldn't say his production is terrible, but its slightly above replacement level. If it was terrible he wouldn't have lasted long. Its true you generally want more production out of the position that he has produced. If he was platooning in the field, it wouldn't be so bad but his defense isn't quite good enough. He seems to project to me as a placeholder until we can find someone better. I just don't think there's any rush to replace him just yet.
  10. Of our position group, C- Sisco/Severino. Sisco no. Severino has a decent shot, if he keeps up production at the plate, because his defense is lacking. We are obviously looking at Rutschman as the long term plan but a team always needs two catchers and we don't know how quickly Rutschman is going to get here and play regularly. Possibly Severino could win the starting role or platoon while Rustchman is brought along 1B - Mancini when he comes back, otherwise big hole. 2B - Alberto. Team control until 2023. Pretty much locked in as regular 2B. SS - Iglesias - one year deal with team option for 2021. He's been raking but he likely gets swapped for prospects at some point before next year. Velasquez no as he doesn't hit well. 3B - Ruiz. Team control until 2025. Potential future starter.needs to keep up production LF - DSJ possible. He was OPS in the 800s in Toronto. Fell off last year but has OPS around 800 this year. DJ Stewart not looking too good. CF - Hays/Mullins Hays had a great year last year but has started out slow this year. Team control until 2026. Mullins is almost strictly a pinch runner/backup. RF- Santander. Coming along fairly well. Team control until 2025. DH - Nunez. As he can't play the field well, it is hard to justify keeping him long term, unless he really started to rake at the plate whcih I find unlikely,. So of the position group, I'd say there's 5 maybe 6 guys who will be part of the long term plan. Thats actually fairly promising, but we will definitely have to fill some holes. Outside of Means, our starting rotation is older guys on short term contracts LeBlanc/Milone/Cobb/Wojo. Cobb gets traded if he keeps pitching well. Other guys are stopgaps. They may play for a year or two more. So we'll basically need four new starters by 2022, and thats assuming Means is there. We have a few young bullpen arms such as Castro/Lakins/Scott. Givens is 30, but has one more year of arb left. After that, not sure if we will resign him. Other guys are older.
  11. Seemed pretty center to me. A bit to the left (see white dot and "77" text below) Plus, right handed pitcher and Davis is a left handed batter. Those types of a pitches I crush on Super Mega Baseball 2 🙂
  12. The second curveball ended up almost dead center of the strike zone.
  13. His second at bat looked like 2018 Chris Davis. Two consecutive 77 mph curveballs he just looked at. Strike 3 was a good pitch but it looked to me like strike 2 was right down the middle. At least DJ Stewart swung at strike 3 and didn't just look at it.
  14. I really doubt the O's are thinking playoffs this year. The lineup is shaking out pretty well but they don't really have the pitching. I guess if it happens it happens. But if some team really wants Cobb, Elias is not going to think twice even if we are in the hunt. Mountcastlle should get a chance at both LF and 1B as both those positions are big holes in the lineup.
  15. I know its MLB but you have to do better than six year rebuild. Thats the well beyond length that the prospects you acquire and draft in years 1 to 3 are ready for the majors. If you can't build a good core in 4 to 5 years, there's not much hope of ever building one.
  16. A good closer can't have nerves.
  17. At least give us a half inning to see if we could comeback. Then if we lead they can call it 🙂
  18. https://www.health.com/condition/infectious-diseases/coronavirus/how-long-after-coronavirus-are-you-contagious This is says 10 days after symptom onset. However given we know the virus can take 10 days to incubate, they have to wait until then to make sure other players also aren't infected. I guess they could only play the players who tested negative - so maybe two weeks.
  19. Its gonna be hard to have a meaningful season even if this is just somehow limited to the Marlins. If those 15 are all genuine COVID infections, even if only mild cases, you are probably talking about a mimimum three weeks before those players and coaches and come back and not be contagious. There is no way you could make up three weeks of baseball with the timeline the MLB wants to keep. So let's say you end the Marlins season, but try to have the rest of the teams play it out. Do the games against the Phillies count? How would they balance out the schedule?
  20. Yes, I noticed that too. I can understand in the field of play wearing a mask could intefere with their performance. But not much excuse in the dugout
  21. Nice hit by Davis, but what was the deal with him lollygagging to 2nd? Almost looks he could have been thrown out.
  22. 1st and 2nd nobody out. Bunt again?
  23. Adjust for situation. How likely is a ground ball and potential double play with DJ Stewart facing Ryan Wheter? How likely is it that Hays can get a fly ball deep enough, vs the chance that he gets a base hit?
  24. Nunez doesn't really have a position, which makes it hard to justify a roster spot, unless you are absolutely raking at the plate. Especially once Mountcastle gets called up Mancini come back next year, its going to be a little hard to find a roster spot for Nunez, Mountcastle, Mancini and Davis. If the Orioles are willing to move on from Davis, it might buy him a little time.
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