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Camden_yardbird

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Camden_yardbird last won the day on April 19 2010

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About Camden_yardbird

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    Plus member Since 4/07
  • Birthday 4/18/1983

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  • Location
    Hartford, CT
  • Occupation
    CT Department of Environmental Protection
  • Favorite Current Oriole
    Jones
  • Favorite All Time Oriole
    Cal Ripken Jr.

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  1. The best thing about being a "surprising .500 team" is that it hopefully catches the attention of real competitive teams and gets them asking if there are some Orioles players they could use on their team. And then hopefully Elias makes some better trades.
  2. I don't like the premise of you assertion that it takes 162 games to know something has changed. While agree with and appreciate you analysis on the August 17 run I think you have some key flaws. 1. We don't need to see a whole season to know something has changed. Rate stats, yes. Pitch usage, patterns and approach, no. 2. You know that you can't be refuted inside of this season because its less than 162 games, which makes your threshold of 162 games a really poor threshold that can't be met and therefore doesn't promote further discussion. If we were to do that we wouldn't discuss whether Bundy turned a corner until October 2021. 3. There are noticeable changes in Bundy that we don't need more of a sample size than what we have. While we can't draw too many conclusions from his rate statistics, yet, we can draw some conclusions from his pitch usage that support the OP premise that the Orioles probably have some flawed pitching philosophies even under the current regime. I detailed, with statistics, all of these changes in the Bundy thread in the MLB forum. While I think there will be some regression, and i am not convinced given prior knee issues that he can keep this up, I think what the Angels have told Bundy to do with his approach is vastly superior to what the Orioles were doing. And if it holds up, Elias is going to look pretty bad.
  3. Players can certainly be resistant, but having read books about some of the data driven approaches including about the astros and pirates, I can tell you the effective changes are dictated not suggested. AJ Burnett was highly resistant to what the Pirates wanted him to do but they told him he had to, and it worked. As for the park, that's a mindset the Orioles have to change. Certainly the park matters, but it certainly doesn't preclude success.
  4. So let's talk about Bundy. And I think this is probably a topic for the Orioles thread, because I think it shows some deeply disturbing signs about the player development and coaching under the current leadership. I have waited to post this because I wanted to see a representative sample. Four games is enough for me, but to qualify that, Bundy has had some nice five game stretches for the Orioles. He is, however, a different pitcher now. The key here is that he is a pitcher now that the Orioles should have turned him into when he was in Baltimore and we need to ask ourselves "why didn't they?". Let's talk about the changes (well actually the slider). Last year I posted in another thread: And that's exactly what the Angels have done with him. In 2017 Bundy had a slider that had a pitch value of 12.2. That was top 5 in the league. Any pitching coach should have seen that and said lets throw that more. They did. The slider usage went up 3% to 25.4% but Bundy still had mixed results. Why? Because his fastball and particularly his sinker were trash (-13.5 PV), and he was still throwing that almost half the time (47%). But they real problem here was come 2019 we had two pitchers in the league, Corbin and Boyd (the two pitchers with better sliders by PV in 2017), who in consecutive years had been turned into a slider first pitcher. This was an all in approach, throw the slider 40+% of the time. Unfortunately come 2019 the Orioles knew Bundy's FB was bad, and decreased its usage, but did the unthinkable and reduced his slider usage back to 22% under the Elias led team Instead of turning into the curve they tried to recapture Bundy's plus changeup (and to their credit partially succeeded). But lets talk about Bundy now. He gets traded to the Angels. What do they do? Tell him to go be Corbin and Boyd. This is Bundy's pitch mix this year: FB: 30% (down 12%) CH: 18.7% (up 1.5%, 8.7% over two years) SL: 30.5% (up 9%) And it has worked wonders. They have functionally turned Bundy into a Corbin/Boyd + Greinke clone, using his slider and changeup as primary offerings and reducing the opportunity for mistakes with his fastball. Now, I do expect some regression in the fastball, and certainly the park change will help some of those FB mistakes to stay in the yard. His HR/FB ration has been cut in half from 16% to 8% but he is also inducing a whole lot more soft contact, more swinging strikes, strikeouts, and worse contact on balls in the zone. It will be interesting to see if this is sustainable, I think it partially is given that we have seen other pitchers do it to great success. The Orioles messed up on this one, and I am pretty disappointed with the focus on metrics and stats that the we have seen from them that they did not try this approach last year.
  5. The best thing about that option is that is probably get elias a better prospect at the deadline.
  6. I think people are being a little harsh on Stewart and I think that he will have some decent seasons. That said, he is a clear case of why you don't, at least in baseball (not football), consider someone's leadership qualities when drafting them. I remember a lot being made of the fact that he was an amazing leader and captain at FSU and that was key to him being noticed by the Orioles. Leadership doeant matter if a player can't stay on the field.
  7. Right. My point. The players union negotiated and balked at what was deemed necessary. So the next time they negotiate its a "we tried it your way, now we do it mine." Manfred thinking long game, and that why you don't see any owners out here saying they are disappointed with the way its going.
  8. My personal opinion is Manfred sees this season as a throw away any way you look at it, but it is an opportunity to get power in future negotiations. So he puts the bare minimum in place, let's a few stupid players ruin the entire thing, call it off because "his hands are tied" and with it gets public opinion to sway to his side, gets some nominal amount of negotiating power, shows the players can't police themselves, and walks into next season saying "here's what we're going to do my way because it didn't work your way last year."
  9. He said this past off season he didn't make swing adjustments, but he focused on bulking up. In previous off seasons he was told he should develop more lean muscle while at the same time adjusting his swing. I am not going to say he is going to turn into what he was, or even that he will some day become an average player again, but to say he doesn't care or doesn't try because of the results is wrong. Every interview I have ever seen with him in the off season on MLB network was him literally driving to see his swing coach or coming back from a workout.
  10. 1. He has mentioned in several instances in the past trying to work on different approaches with hitting coaches, most notably on interviews on MLB network. 2. His ST was going well and he said he focused on different things to change his approach. 3. He is not the only person to not bunt. Often times its the team that makes the decision that bunting is not the approach they want to take with their power hitters, not the power hitters themselves. 4. Someone hands me a paycheck for a negotiated salary I am cashing it. 5. He is a professional athlete, of course he cares about his performance. You are drawing conclusions about his mindset from his performance, and yet ignoring evidence about his mindset from interviews.
  11. Like I said, this season is an exhibition. They should have wacky from the beginning, tried a bunch of stuff and seen what makes the game better. But now, they tried to make it legit and have to change everything and it looks like a joke.
  12. You know, early in the morning as I am reading this that is exactly how my brain resolved this. "Oh yea, Aroldis is on the reds."
  13. This is actually not quite true for all of them. Orioles minor leaguer Willy Yahn is playing in a competitive twilight league in the Hartford area. The son of a colleague also plays on the same team. I would imagine Willy is not the only low minor leaguer who has sought out these leagues that are largely fostering college baseball players.
  14. No we are going to take preventitive measures until there is a vaccine, and there are no fans, so every stadium has several thousand seats worth of social distancing space.
  15. Baseball is a game of numbers... In a season in which we get 60% of the games, the first game gave us 55% of the game. The hyperbole we normally see at the beginning of a season is now sublimely kind of legitimate under normal circumstances..."Mike Stanton is on pace to hit 60 HRs this season." I'm guessing, at 90 degrees, that's the hottest opening day we will ever see in D.C. And we got to see Fauci throw out a very wild first pitch. What can I say, the man doesn't want anyone to catch anything.
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