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Everything posted by Camden_yardbird

  1. Would rather have DeScalfani, Grienke, Jon Gray, E-Rod, Anderson or Urena as pitchers who will likely cost $8-$13 AAV, if not less. Now if the white Sox want to ship Keuchel and a prospect out for the salary relief, thats the type of deal rebuilding teams are going to need to start embracing especially if there's a salary floor at $100 m in the next few years.
  2. 12 per league? Yea, maybe. Might be close. 😝
  3. I dont think anyone has seen anything about ownerships intentions either way. Ownership has been disturbingly quiet over the last two years.
  4. You can't load up for 2024 using this method. Prospects just aren't ready that fast. Especially under Elias, the transition from the minors to the pros has been a shaky thing. Additionally, if you build your team to be competitive those teams aren't winning 90+ games. The Orioles aren't going 2-17 against the rays. Even a .500 record means the rays are suddenly "maybe a 90 win team."
  5. 1) I dont trust Elias to trade Mullins for value. But I am one of the few who are very pessimistic about his performance as a GM. 2) Mullins isn't arb eligible until 2023 at which point he would probably cost somewhere between $6-$8 million in the first year. So you don't trade him due to his cost unless someone has completely bought in and is handing you a ransom. What should you get for a 30-30 CF with plus plus range? 3) If you think this is a fluke year and his production will decrease you might trade him, but none of his underlying statistics points to that. 4) You kee
  6. Umpire said it was a safety issue. We all know its because it was the 9th inning and he was going to get that game done no matter what, safety be damned. Must have had a reservation.
  7. Well I mean heres the thing right, we don't know what they WILL DO, but we can conjecture on what they HAVE TO DO, to field a competitive roster in the next four years. If the organization is not going to do what it needs to compete, or if people think we should only follow the Tampa model, we might as well table all discussion until there's a sale or the Orioles have had 10 years of top 5 picks. If we want to discuss, as this thread is predicated, on what the Orioles need to do to "not waste G-rod and Adley) then we need to be talking about how this team spends money to get there.
  8. To me if you are building a foundation for future success this offseason you have to take into account the realities of the market, the available options, and see who can be added to help in the next four years. That may mean you are adding less players, and at higher contracts. For me those players are one of the high level to elite infielders. I would target Baez personally and I would be prepared to give him a 3-4 deal at $22-24 AAV. That is in line with market value and would allow him an age 31-32 contract. You have to address the realities of the Orioles pitching situation.
  9. Given current salaries and free agents I think these are your options $15 million starter: Grienke, Kikuchi, Duffy, Jon Gray $7 relievers: Hudson, Yates, Knebel, Givens, Diekman, Kennedy $7 IF: The free agent pool is surprisingly void of players that meet this profile of mid level talent that won't embarass you. Its go big or go home this year in the infield. Leury Garcia, Andrelton Simmons? Uif: This could be literally anyone. Doesn't really inspire confidence that this is going to "not waste Gray Rod and Adley."
  10. Of course its not. It allows you to make more errors which is the key. It does not allow you to make all the errors. Just like in a game. You are up 10-2, the error allowing a base hit doesn't mean much. Tie score, the error means everything.
  11. I thought it went through the same league first, so he made it past the diamondbacks and no one else.
  12. Would need to come with massive balancing rules changes that MLB is too scared to make or won't make because the current system keeps large market teams competitive while paying off small market owners to keep them quiet.
  13. Mullins, if he keeps this up, will be expensive when he gets to arbitration. That said, that point is still a year away at least. That for me puts Mullins into the trade only if someone is doing something truly stupid area. 30/30 Center Fielders with great coverage dont come along that often. Even playoff teams struggle to find them. If Mullins cost $15-$20 million in his age 28-29 seasons when we would expect the Orioles to start competing thats probably a pretty good value. We can't expect the Orioles to be unable to spend money and also become a playoff team, those two things
  14. 90% strand rate while pitching for the orioles. Not many know, but strand rate, like BABip, tends to regress to a league mean. Its one of those predictor stats that can be used to foresee future success. I am going to tell you right now that 90% is completely unsustainable. You can't put 9 base runners on base in 5 innings and expect to give up 1 run most of the time. Expect regression.
  15. They may have a 5 run offense through part of the season (maybe a few weeks) but the funny thing about being a competitive team is you need to be consistently strong offensively. Veterans add that level of consistency through out the year.
  16. Can we dispense with the "I don't see a player like X signing with us" Players in 95% of scenarios go to where the contract is biggest. And again, if Elias can't sign someone to a 4-6 year deal and convince them that the team willb be competitive during the term of that deal he probably should not be a GM.
  17. There are six recent all star SS's on the market this winter. The Orioles have to take advantage of supply, that exists this off season. Free agent classes like this rarely if ever come along. I this next thing I say with the utmost respect, but the notion that we can't block our infield prospects is utterly and completely asinine. You cant build a team solely through the farm system, and you cant worry about blocking anyone, save AR. You cant assume every prospect is going to make it, and certainly not as soon as they make it to the league (Mullins took 4 years). If you have
  18. Mateo should not stop the Orioles from getting one of the SS available this off season.
  19. If you think a farm system, and solely a farm system can restore a team to competitiveness then I have a bridge in Brooklyn to sell you.
  20. He has had two off seasons, if he hasn't tried to build a bullpen he should probably be fired. I see this a lot. "Its okay the Orioles are terrible because Elias has tried to make [insert aspect of team] better." Its a pretty lazy team building. The GM should always try and build more talent into the system and that doesn't always take free agent signings. While its great he has built a top farm system we also need to acknowledge that Elias has been fairly terrible at identifying additional talent. Maybe Wells, maybe Urias, maybe Mateo. Not much there.
  21. GMs that non tender promising young players based on years brought low by injury dont last long. Why nontender a guy who already brought his arb numbers lower with the injury?
  22. The only way Elias gets rid of him is if Elias is feeling the heat, which he won't with the farm system gains to fall back on. A new GM generally gets two HC's so why would we waste one before he even started trying to turn it around. IF he gives Hyde resources next year (or perceived resources) and the team struggles then Hyde "resigns". Elias says something about needing a veteran coach and brings in someone with some experience. This songs been sung so many times in MLB its almost cliche.
  23. I think its more about college athletes tying themselves to the machinery of an existing press and communications department than the organization. Its a good investment for the team because they already have all the processes, contracts and industry contacts in place and they can probably handle an NIL contract within existing staff. For a team in Atlanta getting the NIL contract for some SEC stud football player could be lucrative. If I were the Orioles I would be doing the same but for ACC basketball players.
  24. This is a really great analysis of how big and small market teams are different but I think there is one very important aspect that is worth mentioning. In a competitive team environment, large market teams can take larger risks without the same drawbacks. A $10 million dollar contract that is 5% of your $200 payroll is not going to hurt you as much as the same contract that is 20% of your $50 million dollar payroll. So a team like the Giants can sign Gausman last year as a throw away contract (good if it works out, okay if doesn’t) and reap the benefits when that works out.
  25. With 6 former all star shortstops being free agents and no prospects near ready it would be dereliction for the Orioles to not get one of them. The Orioles need to exploit supply and demand dynamics in free agency if they are going to ever build a real team.
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