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Everything posted by Camden_yardbird

  1. I will keep saying it until people believe it. Elias isn't it. He doesn't have the ingenuity of Tampa's leadership, he doesn't try new things, he doesn't have an eye for underappreciated talent. People keep saying "lets follow the Tampa model!" But you have to have the Tampa intelligence. You have to be able to try new things and innovate. You have to be able to find underappreciated talent. Elias can build a farm system, and people think he's some savior. I dont see half of what he needs to be doing to get it done. Yes, the Orioles should be using the Tampa pitching model.
  2. I'm kind of tired of this thought that Orioles should and will continue to try and be the lowest common denominator in the sport. Enough is enough, you have to start building a winning team at some point and it doesn't happen with the flip of a switch. We don't get to next off season and go "Now is the time to compete! Nut, nuk, lets go get some free agents and replace all this drivel on the team." Thats asanine and if you look you will find any playoff roster is the result of years of building and taking calculated risks that heretofore I have not seen Elias is willing to do. If Elias
  3. Dombrowski... I agree not likely but if any GM is going to do that its Dombrowski.
  4. God a lot of the speculated FA targets are just sad. Emblematic of a team going through the motions and not really interested in improving the product they put on the field long term. There is not a lot in this list that really excites me. Harrison is about it, and frankly that mostly because I like him as a player, and not fotlr the statistical benefit he will bring to the team.
  5. Chris Taylor for SS? He can play SS and move around if pushed by prospects. Kind of a modern day Zobrist.
  6. Does power lead to increased OBP any more? I feel like the days of guys who could hit 40 in a season getting 10 to 20 points of OBP out of avoidance are gone.
  7. Yea I get it, WAR 162 is normalized and suggests some sort of linear proportional growth. I dont find much value in that. What was Alex Bohm's WAR 162 last year? Jake Cronenworth? Vastly different results based on their rookie year.
  8. Hard to be anything more than a 2-2.5 WAR rookie catcher when you aren't called up until May.
  9. Watching a lot of Pirates games I have to say that I LOVE Josh Harrison as a player. I always have since he came up in their system. The stats are always alright, not usually going to blow you away, but the heart and hustle are always top 5 in the league. Harrison exudes positive energy. He's a great teammate. I would be totally on board with this.
  10. This organization has been terrible at preparing pitchers for that transition from the minors to the pros. At the same time, we can't expect every player to come up and produce right away. Its good to see Lowther have a good start and be in a position to succeed.
  11. Would rather have DeScalfani, Grienke, Jon Gray, E-Rod, Anderson or Urena as pitchers who will likely cost $8-$13 AAV, if not less. Now if the white Sox want to ship Keuchel and a prospect out for the salary relief, thats the type of deal rebuilding teams are going to need to start embracing especially if there's a salary floor at $100 m in the next few years.
  12. 12 per league? Yea, maybe. Might be close. 😝
  13. I dont think anyone has seen anything about ownerships intentions either way. Ownership has been disturbingly quiet over the last two years.
  14. You can't load up for 2024 using this method. Prospects just aren't ready that fast. Especially under Elias, the transition from the minors to the pros has been a shaky thing. Additionally, if you build your team to be competitive those teams aren't winning 90+ games. The Orioles aren't going 2-17 against the rays. Even a .500 record means the rays are suddenly "maybe a 90 win team."
  15. 1) I dont trust Elias to trade Mullins for value. But I am one of the few who are very pessimistic about his performance as a GM. 2) Mullins isn't arb eligible until 2023 at which point he would probably cost somewhere between $6-$8 million in the first year. So you don't trade him due to his cost unless someone has completely bought in and is handing you a ransom. What should you get for a 30-30 CF with plus plus range? 3) If you think this is a fluke year and his production will decrease you might trade him, but none of his underlying statistics points to that. 4) You kee
  16. Umpire said it was a safety issue. We all know its because it was the 9th inning and he was going to get that game done no matter what, safety be damned. Must have had a reservation.
  17. Well I mean heres the thing right, we don't know what they WILL DO, but we can conjecture on what they HAVE TO DO, to field a competitive roster in the next four years. If the organization is not going to do what it needs to compete, or if people think we should only follow the Tampa model, we might as well table all discussion until there's a sale or the Orioles have had 10 years of top 5 picks. If we want to discuss, as this thread is predicated, on what the Orioles need to do to "not waste G-rod and Adley) then we need to be talking about how this team spends money to get there.
  18. To me if you are building a foundation for future success this offseason you have to take into account the realities of the market, the available options, and see who can be added to help in the next four years. That may mean you are adding less players, and at higher contracts. For me those players are one of the high level to elite infielders. I would target Baez personally and I would be prepared to give him a 3-4 deal at $22-24 AAV. That is in line with market value and would allow him an age 31-32 contract. You have to address the realities of the Orioles pitching situation.
  19. Given current salaries and free agents I think these are your options $15 million starter: Grienke, Kikuchi, Duffy, Jon Gray $7 relievers: Hudson, Yates, Knebel, Givens, Diekman, Kennedy $7 IF: The free agent pool is surprisingly void of players that meet this profile of mid level talent that won't embarass you. Its go big or go home this year in the infield. Leury Garcia, Andrelton Simmons? Uif: This could be literally anyone. Doesn't really inspire confidence that this is going to "not waste Gray Rod and Adley."
  20. Of course its not. It allows you to make more errors which is the key. It does not allow you to make all the errors. Just like in a game. You are up 10-2, the error allowing a base hit doesn't mean much. Tie score, the error means everything.
  21. I thought it went through the same league first, so he made it past the diamondbacks and no one else.
  22. Would need to come with massive balancing rules changes that MLB is too scared to make or won't make because the current system keeps large market teams competitive while paying off small market owners to keep them quiet.
  23. Mullins, if he keeps this up, will be expensive when he gets to arbitration. That said, that point is still a year away at least. That for me puts Mullins into the trade only if someone is doing something truly stupid area. 30/30 Center Fielders with great coverage dont come along that often. Even playoff teams struggle to find them. If Mullins cost $15-$20 million in his age 28-29 seasons when we would expect the Orioles to start competing thats probably a pretty good value. We can't expect the Orioles to be unable to spend money and also become a playoff team, those two things
  24. 90% strand rate while pitching for the orioles. Not many know, but strand rate, like BABip, tends to regress to a league mean. Its one of those predictor stats that can be used to foresee future success. I am going to tell you right now that 90% is completely unsustainable. You can't put 9 base runners on base in 5 innings and expect to give up 1 run most of the time. Expect regression.
  25. They may have a 5 run offense through part of the season (maybe a few weeks) but the funny thing about being a competitive team is you need to be consistently strong offensively. Veterans add that level of consistency through out the year.
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