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Everything posted by Camden_yardbird

  1. As far as developing prospects, the Orioles should not get much credit for AR, the consensus overall pick. I'm glad someone else said it. A lot of peoples fa back on Elias is "yea but, #1 farm system." And while deserves some credit for that, what happens when AR gets promoted. #10-15 farm system? He also acknowledges that perhaps no team was hurt more by the lack of a 2020 minor league season, but how long can that be a crutch. Elias simply needs to be better at adding talent.
  2. The pirates paid Quintana $2 million? Quintana and Lyles had bad ERAs, 6.43 and 5.15 respectivley. But Quintana had a 3.75 xFIP. Lyles was 4.73. The only difference is that Lyles pitched 180 innings and Quintana pitched 63. I don’t get how that costs $5 million more.
  3. Let's talk best case scenario for this signing. Roughed Odor was signed for 1 year. His best season was a .798 OPS, and his average is a .722. Let's say he rebounds to a .750ish hitter. Show reasonable power, and maybe some speed, with no OBP skills. He has 2 seasons with a positive dWAR and the 1.2 he put up in 2018 was an outlier. I think we can safely say he is not a defensive asset, so best case maybe he his net neutral. Either way he is not helping the Orioles young pitchers. So now we have two paths. He puts this up for the entire season, no trade, and then becomes a
  4. I realize its far to early in the off season, but I feel like the OD tee shirts are already writing themselves. Orioles 2022 "I expected a real off season and all I got was an Odor."
  5. If the Orioles can bring in 2 players from outside the organization that will be here for the next playoff team (next 2-3 years), that is off season improvement. As for internal improvement, its hard to go down hill from where they were.
  6. The way MLBTR reports this signing tells you everything. "Texas Signs Seager." "White Sox sign Garcia." "Red Sox sign Paxton." "Orioles sign Odor to major league deal." Like, "get a load of these guys, signing him to a major league deal." There is an implication that its surprising he was given a major league deal because no team in their right mind would do this. And by the way for all those "why aren't we following the Rays model" fans out there, the rays deal listed in the above is the red sox signing Paxton for 1/10 and getting a cheap club option is he perfo
  7. You could build a better pitching staff with the non-tenders than the Orioles had last season. Wouldn't mind them taking chances on any of the following: Kuhl, Boyd, Gsellman, Suero, Vasquez I am sure there will be more as the deadline nears. And before anyone tells me these guys were terrible last year, the signing of Odor clearly indicates the Orioles are not this upcoming season seriously, and the Orioles big pitching signing last year was Harvey.
  8. So we should expect another off season without any actual team building huh?
  9. This is like saying Bezos and Musk are making money so what are Americans worried about. You see the big contracts, but the majority of players are seeing far less.
  10. Teams usually keep those type of guys around because they can play everywhere. Why would Texas trade him? Why would the Orioles trade for him, and what would it cost?
  11. I expected this thread to be addressed to Roch.
  12. The Rays are one of the least healthy organizations in MLB. They frequently have the lowest fan turnout, they are usually rumored to be moving. They have very low cable revenues. Competitively they are run very well. And the Franco extension certainly looks great now.
  13. This one is easy. 1. They are in a division with three small market teams, two of whom don't even try (pirates, reds) most of the time. (I.e. the same reason the Patriots were a 2000's dynasty). 2. They are the 6th most valuable franchise. They have some of the best TV revenues in the game. Thry have tons of resources to devote to the product. 3. On top of that they spend a lot of their earnings into the product, while a top 6 valued franchise they frequently operate in the middle of the pack in revenues. (This would be a good owner - something the Orioles can't depend on
  14. Thats not remotely true under the current structure of major league baseball. Also its just not realistic.
  15. While I agree that concrete performance evaluation is necessary to a certain extent the "Calvary" was an Orioles article about a group of prospects that Orioles fans could latch on to but in reality only contained 1-2 mid 100 ranked prospects and some good organizational prospects. Adley and Grayson are the #1 positional and #1 pitching prospects in the game and Hall is also top 100. Making sure they, and the team, can succeed from day 1 is important.
  16. I agree with you completely, a lot of this type of contract gets signed and succeeds. This is what I will say about contract though. Anecdotally it feels to me like the 2/$32-34 contracts work out a lot more often. LeMahieu, Morton... Also I would say this, if a small market team realizes its window is four years long it should not be signing these deals in year 3 or 4. You have to be real about it when you are a small market team, sustained competitive windows dont exist. (Obligatory Tampa is an outlier statement here). Plan for four year windows or get wrecked.
  17. They signed Quintana this week. He has some super interesting underlying stats that suggest taking a chance on him might have been a good idea (FIP under 4). Then there is a report they have agreed to a deal with Yoshi Tsutusgo, who did very well them late in the year. Not big signing but when your team (Orioles) has $0 in payroll obligations outside of base salaries you expect them to take some chances.
  18. What should really throw Orioles fans into a fit this off season is the Pirates have signed two free agents, and they are arguably a year behind the Orioles in their rebuild.
  19. At the end of the 2022 season I dont think we will be asking why did Elias keep Gillespie over Vespi or Neustrom. I think we will be asking why didn't he keep those guys over Martin, Jones or Lopez.
  20. People who say this don't recognize that Pop was in his rookie year and clearly showed that he will most likely be a significant contributor to a good bullpen in a few years. He has the tools. Its not about what he was last year, its about what he will be in 2-3.
  21. With a salary floor small market teams are going to be getting that 6th year on QO more often than not.
  22. If the Orioles don't add cornerstone playoff players now they are just stealing our money as fans. Cornerstone free agent players are often added one or two years ahead of playoff contention. You don't build a playoff contender in an off season, that doesn't leave room for adjustment and that how you end up wasting the control period for top prospects. The Orioles also need to be cognizant of the direction of the CBA. If a salary floor is phased in, or control rules are changed to incent bringing up top prospects early in the year (e.g. changing arb rules) the Orioles need to be pre
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