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Camden_yardbird

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Posts posted by Camden_yardbird

  1. As far as developing prospects, the Orioles should not get much credit for AR, the consensus overall pick.  I'm glad someone else said it.  

    A lot of peoples fa back on Elias is "yea but, #1 farm system."  And while deserves some credit for that, what happens when AR gets promoted.  #10-15 farm system?

    He also acknowledges that perhaps no team was hurt more by the lack of a 2020 minor league season, but how long can that be a crutch.

    Elias simply needs to be better at adding talent.

  2. 2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

    It’s really hard for me to see a path to the playoffs right now.  
     

    I know things happen and they probably only need 2 more wins but no Humphrey vs what we have left is devastating.  I know it seems like he has been down this year but he really has played well overall and the secondary depth is just decimated.

    I honestly don't think the ravens win another game this season.

    Cleveland is coming off a bye and hasn't had to watch film on another team in three weeks.

    The Packers are on bye this week, will be well rested and will be seeing a secondary without 3 of its top 4 players.

    The Bengals barring a serious Burrow injury are playing well, with an elite level of offense, loss this week not withstanding.

    The Rams are pretty stacked and healthy.

    Maybe the ravens can get the steelers at home but I seriously doubt it.  At the end of the season they may be running out some players who weren't even in the league last week with the rate of their injuries.

  3. The pirates paid Quintana $2 million? 

    Quintana and Lyles had bad ERAs, 6.43 and 5.15 respectivley.  But Quintana had a 3.75 xFIP.  Lyles was 4.73.  The only difference is that Lyles pitched 180 innings and Quintana pitched 63.

    I don’t get how that costs $5 million more.

  4. Let's talk best case scenario for this signing.  Roughed Odor was signed for 1 year.

    His best season was a .798 OPS, and his average is a .722.  Let's say he rebounds to a .750ish hitter.  Show reasonable power, and maybe some speed, with no OBP skills.

    He has 2 seasons with a positive dWAR and the 1.2 he put up in 2018 was an outlier.  I think we can safely say he is not a defensive asset, so best case maybe he his net neutral.  Either way he is not helping the Orioles young pitchers.

    So now we have two paths.  He puts this up for the entire season, no trade, and then becomes a FA again, but costs more than the Orioles are willing to give.  In 2023 the Orioles have netted nothing.

    Or come the trade deadline, he becomes a trade commodity. 

    Comps: Josh Harrison, who had a .791 OPS last year was traded with Yan Gomes, the package netted 1 top 30 prospect and some other pieces.

    Jorge Soler, a DH basically, having a down year netted the Braves #21 prospect, a pitcher projected as a future reliever.  Soler had a .867 OPS in July before the trade.

    Galvis was hitting .720 last year before the Orioles shipped him out.  Galvis was a decent defensive SS and netted Burch, a prospect outside of the Phillies top 30.

    Cesar Hernandez was acquired by the CWS for a prospect outside the top 30.

    My point is this, even IF Odor rebounds, has a great half season and is traded, the most the Orioles are probably getting is an prospect somewhere around the 28-40 range.  Thats if a team wants to trade for a bat first, hot headed 2B, with little to no defensive value.

    I hope he proves me wrong, but even the best case scenario it doesn't seem like Elias has added to a future playoff team.  

  5. The way MLBTR reports this signing tells you everything.

    "Texas Signs Seager."

    "White Sox sign Garcia."

    "Red Sox sign Paxton." 

    "Orioles sign Odor to major league deal."

    Like, "get a load of these guys, signing him to a major league deal." There is an implication that its surprising he was given a major league deal because no team in their right mind would do this.

    And by the way for all those "why aren't we following the Rays model" fans out there, the rays deal listed in the above is the red sox signing Paxton for 1/10 and getting a cheap club option is he performs coming off injury. Makes sense, Bloom is from TB.

    Its just a rude signing for the fans of the Orioles.  I'm wondering if others are starting to see the shine come off Elias as well.  I have been saying it for 1.5 years, we know he can build a farm system, but a real GM needs to do so much more and to date I haven't seen it.  This doesn't make me feel he has more skills.

  6. You could build a better pitching staff with the non-tenders than the Orioles had last season.  Wouldn't mind them taking chances on any of the following:

    Kuhl, Boyd, Gsellman, Suero, Vasquez

    I am sure there will be more as the deadline nears.  And before anyone tells me these guys were terrible last year, the signing of Odor clearly indicates the Orioles are not this upcoming season seriously, and the Orioles big pitching signing last year was Harvey.

  7. On 11/27/2021 at 1:01 PM, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

    Funny how the Rays have managed to consistently be good in the AL East since 2008 without spending like the Yankees and Red Sox.

    Yes the Orioles have it harder in the AL East, but it's not an impossible task to win if you are a well run organization and have a plan like the Rays. 

    The Rays are one of the least healthy organizations in MLB.  They frequently have the lowest fan turnout, they are usually rumored to be moving.  They have very low cable revenues.

    Competitively they are run very well.  And the Franco extension certainly looks great now.

    • Upvote 1
  8. 10 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

    Why are the Cardinals good every year?

    This one is easy.

    1.  They are in a division with three small market teams, two of whom don't even try (pirates, reds) most of the time.  (I.e. the same reason the Patriots were a 2000's dynasty).

    2.  They are the 6th most valuable franchise.  They have some of the best TV revenues in the game.  Thry have tons of resources to devote to the product. 

    3.  On top of that they spend a lot of their earnings into the product, while a top 6 valued franchise they frequently operate in the middle of the pack in revenues. (This would be a good owner - something the Orioles can't depend on)

    4.  Despite the above they have convinced MLB to get extra draft picks because of their metro area.  They are a large valuation team get the benefits of a small metro area team.  

    So in conclusion:

    The Orioles could follow their model if they get a new owner, division, and expanded their revenue streams (which likely isn't possible).

     

  9. 10 hours ago, now said:

    I like the thinking here. Again, it seems the task for Elias now is to arrive at greater confidence in when the real window starts. Previous premature announcements of "the Cavalry" come to mind to suggest caution. Statements like "This is the best looking crop of young prospects, etc. etc." only go so far. More hard data and performance benchmarks are needed.

    While I agree that concrete performance evaluation is necessary to a certain extent the "Calvary" was an Orioles article about a group of prospects that Orioles fans could latch on to but in reality only contained 1-2 mid 100 ranked prospects and some good organizational prospects.

    Adley and Grayson are the #1 positional and #1 pitching prospects in the game and Hall is also top 100.  Making sure they, and the team, can succeed from day 1 is important.

    • Upvote 2
  10. 5 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

    That’s right. You’re exactly right. Every 4/44 contract or a contract in that range won’t move the needle. Ever. We should never sign another player to a deal like that ever again. 
     

    Lesson learned. 

    I agree with you completely, a lot of this type of contract gets signed and succeeds. This is what I will say about contract though.  Anecdotally it feels to me like the 2/$32-34 contracts work out a lot more often.  LeMahieu, Morton...

    Also I would say this, if a small market team realizes its window is four years long it should not be signing these deals in year 3 or 4.  

    You have to be real about it when you are a small market team, sustained competitive windows dont exist.  (Obligatory Tampa is an outlier statement here).  Plan for four year windows or get wrecked.

    • Upvote 1
  11. 17 minutes ago, Frobby said:

     

    I must have missed the big Pirates signings.   Who are we talking about?   Nate Kirby signing a MiL deal?   Who else?

    https://www.mlb.com/pirates/roster/transactions

    They signed Quintana this week.  He has some super interesting underlying stats that suggest taking a chance on him might have been a good idea (FIP under 4).  

    Then there is a report they have agreed to a deal with Yoshi Tsutusgo, who did very well them late in the year.

    Not big signing but when your team (Orioles) has $0 in payroll obligations outside of base salaries you expect them to take some chances.

    • Thanks 1
  12. At the end of the 2022 season I dont think we will be asking why did Elias keep Gillespie over Vespi or Neustrom. I think we will be asking why didn't he keep those guys over Martin, Jones or Lopez. 

  13. 21 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

    We thought that last year and we lost a .1 rWAR reliever! 

    People who say this don't recognize that Pop was in his rookie year and clearly showed that he will most likely be a significant contributor to a good bullpen in a few years.  He has the tools.  Its not about what he was last year, its about what he will be in 2-3.

  14. 2 hours ago, LookinUp said:

    Very interesting. Seems like the ideas being proposed are tweaks to existing formulas rather than a new way of doing it. Basically:

    1. Salary floor for teams,
    2. Arbitration after 2 years, not 3, and 
    3. Free Agency after 5 years, not 6.

    Basically, let guys get paid younger and make teams spend on something. That wouldn't stop gaming of service time, but I'm not sure how else to do it.

    With a salary floor small market teams are going to be getting that 6th year on QO more often than not.

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