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Posts posted by Camden_yardbird

  1. On 10/11/2021 at 2:59 PM, Can_of_corn said:

    I have zero idea why the Orioles haven't tried that, or anything innovative really, in this span of non-competitiveness.

    I will keep saying it until people believe it.  Elias isn't it.  He doesn't have the ingenuity of Tampa's leadership, he doesn't try new things, he doesn't have an eye for underappreciated talent.

    People keep saying "lets follow the Tampa model!" But you have to have the Tampa intelligence.  You have to be able to try new things and innovate.  You have to be able to find underappreciated talent.

    Elias can build a farm system, and people think he's some savior.  I dont see half of what he needs to be doing to get it done.

    Yes, the Orioles should be using the Tampa pitching model.

    Why aren't they?


    • Upvote 1
  2. 3 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

    Andrew Heaney might be our biggest offseason move. That and a Mancini trade for whatever we can get. I think Santander sticks till the deadline and hopefully builds value. 

    I'm kind of tired of this thought that Orioles should and will continue to try and be the lowest common denominator in the sport.  Enough is enough, you have to start building a winning team at some point and it doesn't happen with the flip of a switch.  We don't get to next off season and go "Now is the time to compete! Nut, nuk, lets go get some free agents and replace all this drivel on the team."  Thats asanine and if you look you will find any playoff roster is the result of years of building and taking calculated risks that heretofore I have not seen Elias is willing to do.

    If Elias persists in his belief that he will build an entire team from Single A up without acquiring meaningful low, and sometimes higher risk,  free agents, the Orioles will never sniff a playoff game until long after Adley Ruschman or Grayson Rodriguez have become Yankees or Red Sox players and won championships with their new teams. 

  3. God a lot of the speculated FA targets are just sad.  Emblematic of a team going through the motions and not really interested in improving the product they put on the field long term.

    5 hours ago, Just Regular said:

    Orioles Bin: Duffy 87, Lowrie 86, B. Miller 70, Andrelton 44, Asdrubal 36, E. Escobar 31, Solano 25, Galvis 20, J. Harrison 7, J. Iglesias 0

    There is not a lot in this list that really excites me.  Harrison is about it, and frankly that mostly because I like him as a player, and not fotlr the statistical benefit he will bring to the team.

  4. This organization has been terrible at preparing pitchers for that transition from the minors to the pros.  At the same time, we can't expect every player to come up and produce right away.

    Its good to see Lowther have a good start and be in a position to succeed.

  5. Would rather have DeScalfani, Grienke, Jon Gray, E-Rod, Anderson or Urena as pitchers who will likely cost $8-$13 AAV, if not less.

    Now if the white Sox want to ship Keuchel and a prospect out for the salary relief, thats the type of deal rebuilding teams are going to need to start embracing especially if there's a salary floor at $100 m in the next few years.

  6. 10 hours ago, Ruzious said:

    The packages definitely have to be real good.  I don't see any sign that ownership is committed to 2022 as anything but another developmental year.  

    I dont think anyone has seen anything about ownerships intentions either way.  Ownership has been disturbingly quiet over the last two years.

  7. 7 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

    4 teams in our division are going to win 90 games this year. That’s a huge road block. We need to load up for 2024+ to be able to compete. That means getting more top picks and trading away MLB talent when they make themselves “high value”. Keep building the farm. 

    You can't load up for 2024 using this method.  Prospects just aren't ready that fast.  Especially under Elias, the transition from the minors to the pros has been a shaky thing.

    Additionally, if you build your team to be competitive those teams aren't winning 90+ games.  The Orioles aren't going 2-17 against the rays.  Even a .500 record means the rays are suddenly "maybe a 90 win team."

  8. 1) I dont trust Elias to trade Mullins for value.  But I am one of the few who are very pessimistic about his performance as a GM.

    2) Mullins isn't arb eligible until 2023 at which point he would probably cost somewhere between $6-$8 million in the first year.  So you don't trade him due to his cost unless someone has completely bought in and is handing you a ransom.  What should you get for a 30-30 CF with plus plus range?  

    3) If you think this is a fluke year and his production will decrease you might trade him, but none of his underlying statistics points to that.

    4) You keep him.  Hes not a free agent until 2026 at which point Grayson and Adley are probably just hitting their arb years.  At that point you are in one of two places, you have a competitive team because the farm has produced at which point you need Mullins or you don't have a competitive team because the farm hasn't produced or ownership has meddled or ownership hasn't committed resources, in which case you have had an opportunity to trade Mullins prior to his 2nd or 3rd arb years.  Maybe you get less than trading him this off season, but you traded that off for getting more information about how competitive the team is.  Frankly, in this last case, if the Orioles remain uncompetitive into 2024, you are probably best spending your summer watching competitive knitting than the shitshow that team would be 7 years into a rebuild and without a hope in the world.

  9. 2 hours ago, wildcard said:

    I see no indication that the O's will sign 3 and 4 year contract for 22-24 per year.

    Well I mean heres the thing right, we don't know what they WILL DO, but we can conjecture on what they HAVE TO DO, to field a competitive roster in the next four years.

    If the organization is not going to do what it needs to compete, or if people think we should only follow the Tampa model, we might as well table all discussion until there's a sale or the Orioles have had 10 years of top 5 picks.

    If we want to discuss, as this thread is predicated, on what the Orioles need to do to "not waste G-rod and Adley) then we need to be talking about how this team spends money to get there.


  10. To me if you are building a foundation for future success this offseason you have to take into account the realities of the market, the available options, and see who can be added to help in the next four years.  That may mean you are adding less players, and at higher contracts.

    For me those players are one of the high level to elite infielders.  I would target Baez personally and I would be prepared to give him a 3-4 deal at $22-24 AAV.  That is in line with market value and would allow him an age 31-32 contract.

    You have to address the realities of the Orioles pitching situation.  In the next few years you are going to have to add significant pitching to the organization to not waste the first three years of those players.  The pitching coming up can't be counted on to fill out a rotation, they more need to supplement it. Realiatically that means in the next 4 years you are committing $30-40 AAV to pitching.  Maybe that's taking some chances or investing more in a know quantity.

    For the rest of the roster.  Elias is going to have to be better at bringing in impactful bargain players, better at preparing prospects, and build out the roster less on waiver wire cast offs.  The Orioles need some happy surprises, no team - especially not a mid market team - succeeds without happening upon some serious unexpected production.

  11. 17 hours ago, wildcard said:

    My plan is always not to waste the Adley and Grayson years.

    Instead of trading the O's best players,  the O's spend 40m and make the team more competitive in 2022.  Add a starter 2/30,  spend 1/7m each of 2 relievers and a 2B/3B, spend 1/2m on a UIF.

    Given current salaries and free agents I think these are your options

    $15 million starter:  Grienke, Kikuchi, Duffy, Jon Gray

    $7 relievers: Hudson, Yates, Knebel, Givens, Diekman, Kennedy

    $7 IF: The free agent pool is surprisingly void of players that meet this profile of mid level talent that won't embarass you.  Its go big or go home this year in the infield. Leury Garcia, Andrelton Simmons?

    Uif: This could be literally anyone.

    Doesn't really inspire confidence that this is going to "not waste Gray Rod and Adley."


    • Upvote 1
  12. 17 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

    Mets are third in payroll, Phillies are 5th, Angels are 7th.

    Yes more money helps, but it isn't that dominant a factor.

    Of course its not.  It allows you to make more errors which is the key.  It does not allow you to make all the errors.

    Just like in a game.  You are up 10-2, the error allowing a base hit doesn't mean much.  Tie score, the error means everything.

  13. 3 hours ago, Hazmat said:

    The Pirates claimed De Los Santos which means the O's passed on him.  Oh well.

    I thought it went through the same league first, so he made it past the diamondbacks and no one else.

  14. Mullins, if he keeps this up, will be expensive when he gets to arbitration.  That said, that point is still a year away at least.  That for me puts Mullins into the trade only if someone is doing something truly stupid area.

    30/30 Center Fielders with great coverage dont come along that often.   Even playoff teams struggle to find them.  If Mullins cost $15-$20 million in his age 28-29 seasons when we would expect the Orioles to start competing thats probably a pretty good value.

    We can't expect the Orioles to be unable to spend money and also become a playoff team, those two things are mutually exclusive.

  15. 90% strand rate while pitching for the orioles.  Not many know, but strand rate, like BABip, tends to regress to a league mean.  Its one of those predictor stats that can be used to foresee future success.  I am going to tell you right now that 90% is completely unsustainable.  You can't put 9 base runners on base in 5 innings and expect to give up 1 run most of the time.

    Expect regression.


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